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Author Topic: CML  (Read 204323 times)

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #270 on: May 04, 2015, 04:50:50 pm »
As Coronation's earnings depend largely on the market performance here it clearly shows the difference between the First Half Year of 2014 and the First Half Year of 2015. This decline plus the slowing down of the AUM was the cause of the correction.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #271 on: May 04, 2015, 04:58:32 pm »
The next set of results will be the Full Year ending 31 Sept. 2015. It shows that the market has almost overtaken the performance of the comparative period and there is still 5 months left. If there is no major upset then this is great for Coronation.
Note that I used the TOPI for these calculations but I have compared Index charts with different weightings of the major stocks such as Naspers and MTN and the pattern is very similar.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2015, 05:10:40 pm by Orca »
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #272 on: May 05, 2015, 06:03:47 pm »
Just as I thought. Traders climbed in with longs at the bottom and selling for short term profits. I will have to wait until the longs die out to see her carry on up.
Here is a bar chart of her Assets Under Management. Bear in mind that the last bar is Year to Date and the others are Full Year. We still have 5 months to go and it seems like there is no stopping the growth in AUM.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #273 on: May 05, 2015, 07:52:01 pm »
I have often been asked why I don't switch from CML to PSG over the past year so I thought I would share my reasons.

As we all know, CML has no stable mates to make comparisons to. She is purely driven by her underlying share performance mostly on the JSE. This performance is obviously geared so in a good year for the JSE, she would outperform most stocks and vice versa. As the markets overall mostly go up bar the odd crash, so will CML with her gearing. Her gearing is dependent on the growth in Assets Under Management. This growth in AUM is almost ensured by her consistently winning the top awards in Plexcrowns and Raging Bull.

PSG has been doing extremely well of late but they have a different business model. They buy shares in a few companies but to the extent that it would border on hostile takeovers.
They own a third of Capitec, half of Curro and then large portions of Zeder and Pioneer Foods.

What frightens me is should Capitec's arch rival ABIL come back with a vengeance or Curro hit a bad spot, then PSG is doomed. This is my major reason. More on this later.
Take note that PSG's Equity portfolio had a 10% decline that is in line with Coronation's results for the year. Only PSG's huge investments in the above mentioned companies kept her upward momentum.

SARS needs investors to keep stocks for at least 3 years to qualify for Capital Gains Tax so I cannot afford to hold PSG for so long due to the gamble of possible losses in the holdings they have.
CML on the other hand is good for long term as she just follows the market trend albeit geared.


 

« Last Edit: May 05, 2015, 09:33:22 pm by Orca »
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gcr

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Re: CML
« Reply #274 on: May 06, 2015, 12:05:13 am »
Quote from: Orca on May 05, 2015, 07:52:01 pm
I have often been asked why I don't switch from CML to PSG over the past year so I thought I would share my reasons.

As we all know, CML has no stable mates to make comparisons to. She is purely driven by her underlying share performance mostly on the JSE. This performance is obviously geared so in a good year for the JSE, she would outperform most stocks and vice versa. As the markets overall mostly go up bar the odd crash, so will CML with her gearing. Her gearing is dependent on the growth in Assets Under Management. This growth in AUM is almost ensured by her consistently winning the top awards in Plexcrowns and Raging Bull.

PSG has been doing extremely well of late but they have a different business model. They buy shares in a few companies but to the extent that it would border on hostile takeovers.
They own a third of Capitec, half of Curro and then large portions of Zeder and Pioneer Foods.

What frightens me is should Capitec's arch rival ABIL come back with a vengeance or Curro hit a bad spot, then PSG is doomed. This is my major reason. More on this later.
Take note that PSG's Equity portfolio had a 10% decline that is in line with Coronation's results for the year. Only PSG's huge investments in the above mentioned companies kept her upward momentum.

SARS needs investors to keep stocks for at least 3 years to qualify for Capital Gains Tax so I cannot afford to hold PSG for so long due to the gamble of possible losses in the holdings they have.
CML on the other hand is good for long term as she just follows the market trend albeit geared.
Fully agree your arguments - presumably PSG are still skimming off rather ridiculous management fees. I held PSG for over 3 years but when Curro started their spending spree I sold out of PSG totally
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Mr_Dividend

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Re: CML
« Reply #275 on: May 19, 2015, 09:02:49 am »
So, inter divi down from 275 to 246. I work Sep - end August so for me dividends where slightly up for the year. 528 vs 542 so up 2.6% - not exactly inflation - even using governments wildly optimistic metrics.

Will not sell my main holdings CML - but will probably get out in the small portfolio - shouldn't have been there in the first place. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts - not great results, but not that bad ether.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #276 on: May 19, 2015, 09:41:00 am »
Not bad at all. Five months left to gain 2% for her to be on par with 2014 results.
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gcr

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Re: CML
« Reply #277 on: May 19, 2015, 10:27:43 am »
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #278 on: May 19, 2015, 10:44:07 am »
Quote from: gcr on May 19, 2015, 10:27:43 am
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(

Forget it. She will go up to R 90 today.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #279 on: May 19, 2015, 12:02:32 pm »
Quote from: Orca on May 19, 2015, 10:44:07 am
Quote from: gcr on May 19, 2015, 10:27:43 am
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(

Forget it. She will go up to R 90 today.

Seems I missed that estimation. Up over R90.50 already. The guys with the thick glasses must have done some calculations today and are climbing in now. Plus all the divie hunters should keep her going.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #280 on: June 05, 2015, 11:08:50 pm »
With the markets not doing well at all of late, I cannot see Coronation beating their FY results from the previous year. The ALSI made a mere 2% gain this year and still falling. Next results must surely be lower once again.

Perhaps the share price was propped up over the past 2 weeks with Coronation buying over a R150M of their own shares on market to add to their Trust fund for future bonuses for "job well done".
This purchase was also well timed for it to include the dividend as LDT was today.

I don't think the ex divie price of CML will recover soon. Perhaps in 2016.
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #281 on: June 10, 2015, 12:53:17 am »
What does CML know that we don't? The Coronation Trust fund bought 2 more tranches of their own shares and now totalling nearly R200M. This was pre divi so was it only for the dividends?
With the correction of late and perhaps ongoing, I cannot see a better performance of last year come next results.

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Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #282 on: June 10, 2015, 09:25:05 am »
How do you think the dividends will go for the next year?
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Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #283 on: June 10, 2015, 11:27:45 am »
I doubt it will drop below 8000 as too much support at that level. She remains a good long term stock to hold onto just for the great dividend. So watching the price is not that important.
I could live comfortably for some months just on the dividend.
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Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #284 on: June 17, 2015, 12:47:05 pm »
Quote from: Orca on June 10, 2015, 11:27:45 am
I doubt it will drop below 8000 as too much support at that level. She remains a good long term stock to hold onto just for the great dividend. So watching the price is not that important.
I could live comfortably for some months just on the dividend.

Would you buy more for the dividend if you had some spare cash though?
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