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General Category => Shares => Topic started by: JhbMaverick on April 18, 2013, 04:19:13 pm

Title: CML
Post by: JhbMaverick on April 18, 2013, 04:19:13 pm
It just seems unstoppable. Anyone brave enough to make predictions?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 18, 2013, 04:35:50 pm
I have 3 portfolio's. 1 that belongs to me and 2 other people is 100% CML. The graph / price does look awesome, "other site" has thread indicating they think it will go R75 by year end. But as far as I know, only Chuck Norris in unstoppable.

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Naude on April 18, 2013, 08:34:14 pm
I tested the competition by buying 100% CML. Looks who's on top!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 22, 2013, 05:17:32 pm
I agree 100%, but also note that Bil did hit R300 - in Feb and I bought today at R253. Thus just hanging there while we have a recovery, then I will get back into CML, thus please keep an eye on it during my absence.

 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 23, 2013, 04:12:16 pm
You do know the stock well. I'm watching it closely as I have a small chunk of change due in mid-july. CML is one of the shares I'd consider. The other two, as in my challenge profile are SAB and Aspen. I may just split it evenly between the 3 rather than the 50% CML 25% the others as I did with this months challenge allocation.

My thinking is, even if CML is fully valued, I doubt it'll be a loser over a 3 year period.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: smiley on April 23, 2013, 04:40:09 pm
You do know the stock well. I'm watching it closely as I have a small chunk of change due in mid-july. CML is one of the shares I'd consider. The other two, as in my challenge profile are SAB and Aspen. I may just split it evenly between the 3 rather than the 50% CML 25% the others as I did with this months challenge allocation.

My thinking is, even if CML is fully valued, I doubt it'll be a loser over a 3 year period.

If you looking at a three year period i would not buy CML as it sits on a very high PE and would need excellent results to maintain this PE.

We are due for a bull market but the question is when  ::) 1 year, 2 or 3?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on April 23, 2013, 06:44:47 pm
I agree with Orca. Using a 10 month SMA, there has never been a sell 'signal'.
PE ratios are not to be relied on and some of my shares have been on high PE's for years, obviously for a reason.
The historic PE's  (with CML for example), seem to always reduce after results, more or less in line with the estimated forward PE's, only to increase again in anticipation of continued good performance, which with CML is almost a given.

A somewhat more useful method of valuation is the Shiller PE method (CAPE). http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

(http://thumbnails104.imagebam.com/25053/6840a8250524921.jpg) (http://www.imagebam.com/image/6840a8250524921)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Krypt0n1te on April 23, 2013, 07:32:53 pm

If you looking at a three year period i would not buy CML as it sits on a very high PE and would need excellent results to maintain this PE.

We are due for a bull market but the question is when  ::) 1 year, 2 or 3?

I do agree with you on your first statement, CML will really need to give steller results for quite some time to justify this price, I'm not saying it's gonna crash, nor am I selling my holding.
Simply by looking at the graph this thing is trading at a 35% premium to its 200SMA!

With your latter comment regarding the due Bull Market I assume you meant we are due for a correction? (which did start already)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on April 23, 2013, 08:22:26 pm


I do agree with you on your first statement, CML will really need to give steller results for quite some time to justify this price, I'm not saying it's gonna crash, nor am I selling my holding.
Simply by looking at the graph this thing is trading at a 35% premium to its 200SMA!
That's why it's still a buy, not talking about short term movements.
 BUY RULE
 Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA.
 SELL RULE
 Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA

With your latter comment regarding the due Bull Market I assume you meant we are due for a correction? (which did start already)
We are still in a Bull market, just had a correction. When we get the Big Enchilada, nobody knows.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Naude on April 23, 2013, 09:12:27 pm
Many shares have shown great growth even though the P/E is high. Your other choice SAB is one of them. The other point in CMLs favour is the good dividend.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: JhbMaverick on April 25, 2013, 04:28:08 pm
Another good day for CML. Any idea what changed in November 2012? The trajectory suddenly steepened up then and hasn't slowed much since.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 25, 2013, 04:31:39 pm
I believed Orca started his CML thread on the other site about November 2012..... ;D ;D ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 25, 2013, 06:31:39 pm
I know, Orca, just kiddin with you as usual. And I hope CML keeps doing what it is doing, just so you can make some nice moola.... ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 26, 2013, 12:26:24 pm
5350 up 1.90%. Why oh why do I hold such a small amount! I imagine the buyers are expecting really good result to justify that price...
(http://img.pandawhale.com/56519-Surprised-Patrick--Know-Your-M-uVLr.gif)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 26, 2013, 12:51:43 pm
they just brought out a trading statement
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on April 26, 2013, 01:05:51 pm
But it seems the market already knew that their results were going to be good as the price movement seems to have been very muted
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 26, 2013, 02:23:21 pm
I agree 100%, but also note that Bil did hit R300 - in Feb and I bought today at R253. Thus just hanging there while we have a recovery, then I will get back into CML, thus please keep an eye on it during my absence.

Yes,jaDEB, Orca kicked ur  &^%  prim and proper.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on April 26, 2013, 04:10:50 pm
AUM ¼ ending March 2013

An increase of 20,65% over previous  ¼
A bit less than the 37,5% ¼ on ¼ increase before that.
Great stuff indeed.


Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on April 27, 2013, 12:00:41 am
Would appear a good investment with the growth it has, but why is there such a big diff between its nav and price it is trading at. To me it appears to be a type of unit trust that is listed, or am I missing something.


Title: Re: CML
Post by: JhbMaverick on April 28, 2013, 02:39:07 pm
If you had to estimate a forward p/e now what would you think it'd be?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Naude on May 02, 2013, 05:22:31 pm
Portugal here I come.

Are you buying your ticket after today?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Aragorn on May 03, 2013, 11:15:24 am
Orca's gotta be really smiling -
7 trading days = 8.91% move (so far)
Today up over 1.5% (so far), whilst other financials seems to be heading the opposite direction
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 10, 2013, 11:16:00 am
Up and up and up... I want to buy more in June/July can't it just hold the increases till then  ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 10, 2013, 05:16:14 pm
I must say that I am rather pleased with my 111% gain the past 12 months of which the first 6 months was only 30%.

What did you do that was different to me with regard holding CML shares I bought 1500 on 5th June 2012 and I am showing a price increase of 132.1% to date and similarly with Woolies its showing a 127.8% price increase - certainly my best performing counters
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 14, 2013, 08:52:32 am
Any comments on this mornings SENS? Good looking dividend! Some of the points below.
Quote
- Assets under management of R409 billion
- Diluted headline earnings per share of 163.4 cents
- Interim dividend per share of 163 cents

Assets under management increased by 21% to R409 billion (September 2012: R339 billion), driven by total net inflows of R21.9 billion and rising global markets.

Excellent investment performance and a substantially increased asset base led to a 62% increase in revenue to R1 475 million for the six-month period. This resulted in an increase in diluted headline earnings per share of 88% to 163.4 cents (March 2012: 86.7 cents).

If the effect of Secondary Tax on Companies (STC) in the comparative period is removed, as a result of the introduction of Dividends Tax (DT), the increase in diluted headline earnings per share is 72%.

Accounting for projected cash requirements, an interim gross dividend of 163 cents per share has been declared, resulting in a net dividend

of 138.55 cents per share for shareholders subject to DT.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on May 14, 2013, 09:57:21 am
Was the market expecting better than that? I bought at 5754 this morning and now we're on 5555...?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 14, 2013, 10:23:09 am
I think some people took profits today and they will come back into the market just before LDT to buy up more shares and then reap the dividend
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Ykhan on May 14, 2013, 10:36:43 am
im going to wait a bit and look at what the prices does before us markets open to buy incase it goes down a bit more
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 14, 2013, 11:21:48 am
That's better Mr CML, keep heading in that direction. Wish I got some more in the R55 range but I was also too early...  8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on May 14, 2013, 07:24:23 pm
PE is 19.04

http://www.sharechat.co.za/forum/topic/20549-cml/page-8#entry210624
Yes, that sounds right. 5750÷301.40 (12 mths. HEPS) = 19.07  :)

Check the image.

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 16, 2013, 09:32:15 am
My small portion of CML has done rather nicely since I first bought.

If I took Orca's advice when we first connected a long time ago I'd be heading for the beach now ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 16, 2013, 09:57:32 am
I must say I feel a little uneasy with CML at these levels (yup I hold a few thousand) especially in the light of the fact that they have recently changed their top dog Nelson. His 2ic took over the helm and seems a very capable person and has stated that he is not going to change anything dramatically. The latest results could be window dressing in the sense that they are trying to portray that the business is just as good as before the changes. My concern is that maybe that the next set of results may not be as robust and if they are not then CML could take a very big hit as shareholders take profits and sit on the sidelines. Anyway just my opinion and a small concern that I have around these shares even though I am showing a 139% increase in current price versus costs
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on May 16, 2013, 11:33:01 am
Your Target for CML was R70 or R75 end 2013, what is your revised target now R90?.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on May 16, 2013, 02:06:36 pm
Thanks Orca
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Aragorn on May 17, 2013, 01:35:13 pm
MMM.... Was also hoping for a further drop today (looking for the right/nice price to accumulate), but sadly (gladly) she's up by over 3% so far.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 17, 2013, 07:32:58 pm
what does share have to justify its price
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 21, 2013, 12:32:10 pm
Can someone send in some oxygen. I'm getting a little hypoxic at this altitude  ::)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 24, 2013, 07:00:09 pm
I still need some clarification on this share, so people seem to be of the opinion that if they buy cml, they are buying into a diverse portfolio of shares. But as far as i can see you are only buying shares in a management company that earns a income on funds they manage.

the same as buying shares in a bank, more or less.

So they have no underlying assets only income

"Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. is one of Southern Africa's most successful third-party fund management companies. It is a pure fund management business which offers both individual and institutional investors access to local and global expertise across all asset classes, including specialist Global Emerging Markets, Africa and Private Equity units."
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on May 24, 2013, 08:28:15 pm
Correct. That is why their divi is great. Very little capex.
Now a mid cap, soon a large cap. (eg. market cap of CML = 16,8 billion R, Barloworld = 22 billion R)
Just mentioning for interest's sake, nothing to worry about yet Orca, will be mid cap for a very long time.
(Your dislike for large caps refers).  ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 25, 2013, 07:21:06 pm
I would not put my pension money in this share, there seems to be an investment view that by buying cml one is buying into an company that is investing your money into stocks and what not, this is not the case, investing into one of their products that will happen.
By buying cml you are only joining into the management fees they make from their income they receive.

The company has no value, only income, they distribute 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 25, 2013, 07:31:15 pm
they have a nav of 477.9 and trading at 6210 and a pe of 20.6, so their income ratio is ok
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 26, 2013, 08:56:11 am
I came across a comment on another website where a guy mentioned that he had sold all his shares and put the money in cml to invest for him
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 26, 2013, 11:06:51 am
I came across a comment on another website where a guy mentioned that he had sold all his shares and put the money in cml to invest for him

Maybe he was talking about one of the CML unit trusts. The returns have been quite good for the Coronation top 20, 31% over the last 12 months, 80% over 3 years:
http://www.equinox.co.za/unittrusts/funds/funddetails.asp?fundid=16143
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on May 26, 2013, 01:21:52 pm
no was definately cml on jse not one of their unit trusts,

"Sometimes I wonder why all of us bother with this.  buy CML and let the pros do their thing?  just a thought"

or I assumed incorrectly from the statement
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on May 27, 2013, 01:50:04 pm
Coronation has offices in Europe where they sell investments in Africa. They are listed on the stock exchange in Berlin as well. CML Berlin chart is almost a mirror image of ours.
Right you are ! (Wonder why they don't mention the listing on their local web page - maybe I simply can't find it).

http://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Shares?isin=ZAE000047353
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 27, 2013, 02:30:38 pm
(http://caran.rzpool.de/chart.php?id=tts-3985858&type=bigchart&chartType=50Y)

I'd better add a thumbs up smiley.

Edit: Done  :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on May 28, 2013, 01:48:28 pm
CML holders must be enjoying today
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 28, 2013, 03:12:15 pm
Well my percentage profit on base purchase price now stands at 160% on CML and has surpassed my Woolworths which are on 137% - both bought at the same time. In Rand terms of profit Woolworths is still significantly more because I hold more Woolies than Coronation
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on May 28, 2013, 03:57:04 pm
gcr

:wall:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on May 28, 2013, 04:13:51 pm
Zero to brag about in the other Leaderboard, not so ?  Stay on the carpet.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 28, 2013, 04:17:57 pm
At position 14 -  not too shabby  :LHST:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Spartan on June 04, 2013, 10:17:26 am
So falling prey to herd mentality I bought CML.  Looks like it has gone down 3% since :(
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on June 04, 2013, 01:24:39 pm
So falling prey to herd mentality I bought CML.  Looks like it has gone down 3% since :(

Notice those dividends in your account... You haven't lost any money.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Spartan on June 04, 2013, 01:39:28 pm
Hi Orca.  Sorry no I didn't know and I'm not sure what going ex-dividend means.

"Investopedia explains 'Ex-Dividend'
A stock trades ex-dividend on or after the ex-dividend date (ex-date). At this point, the person who owns the security on the ex-dividend date will be awarded the payment, regardless of who currently holds the stock. After the ex-date has been declared, the stock will usually drop in price by the amount of the expected dividend."

Even after reading the above I'm still not 100% sure what ex dividend means.  :(

So as I google further people are saying that the words security and stock is used interchangeably.  But above it implies they are different..."At this point, the person who owns the security on the ex-dividend date will be awarded the payment, regardless of who currently holds the stock"

So what then is a security...
 
"Investopedia explains 'Security'
Securities are typically divided into debt securities and equities. A debt security is a type of security that represents money that is borrowed that must be repaid, with terms that define the amount borrowed, interest rate and maturity/renewal date. Debt securities include government and corporate bonds, certificates of deposit (CDs), preferred stock and collateralized securities (such as CDOs and CMOs).

Equities represent ownership interest held by shareholders in a corporation, such as a stock. Unlike holders of debt securities who generally receive only interest and the repayment of the principal, holders of equity securities are able to profit from capital gains.

In the United States, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other self-regulatory organizations (such as the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) regulate the public offer and sale of securities."
 
All I know for now is that going ex-dividend usually means a drop in price, not sure why.  And people who own securities get some kind of payment, but those who only own stocks get the short end.

Don't mind me then :) I will get the hang of this eventually ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on June 04, 2013, 02:14:49 pm
Spartan - there are two dates that you need to focus on LDT (Last Date to Trade) - you have to be a holder of some shares in the company on this date to receive dividends. The other date you need to focus on is Pay Date - which is the day the dividend is paid out based on your holdings at LDT. The difference between LDT and Pay date is normally 7 days but can be longer. Don't worry about stocks, securities or other names - what you are buying is a share in a company so just think of shares in the SA context
Hope this helps in understanding posts on this site
Title: Re: CML
Post by: ptomli on June 04, 2013, 02:16:31 pm
Companies announce that they're going to be, potentially, paying a dividend, and people who hold the stock/share/security at some given date will be paid that dividend. After that date, the stock/share/security is called ex-dividend, because it "excludes the rights to the dividend". Because anyone buying the stock/share/security after that date will not get paid the dividend, the stock/share/security typically drops in price equal to the value of the dividend. However, the dividend amount is announced after the ex-div date, so the drop in price may only happens then. This is regardless of when the dividend is actually paid.

For example:

An example is http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20130604123900&seq=29

> Last day to trade "cum" distribution Friday, 21 June 2013
> Securities trade "ex" distribution Monday, 24 June 2013
> Record date Friday, 28 June 2013

Which means you need to own the stock/share/security on 21 June 2013 to be eligible to receive the dividend. If you buy on/after 24 June 2013 you will not receive the dividend. Whomever holds the stock/share/security on 21 June 2013 will receive the dividend

They also say

> Declaration of the amount to be distributed, if any, and the
> payment date will be made within 14 (fourteen) business days
> after the record date.

Which means within 14 days of 28 June 2013 they will announce what, if any, dividend they will be paying.


If I got something wrong I'm sure it'll get corrected
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on June 04, 2013, 02:46:49 pm
Laymans terms:-

You have a share trading at R10, the divvie is R1.

Come Last date to trade, u have to have the share on that date to get the divvie. Thus the R1 divvie is yours, even if you sell it the next day. The divvie then gets paid to you (account) 7 days or so later.

Thus trading ex divvie , u can sell the share say for R9.50, + u getting R1 divvie in a couple of days, thus u actually sold for R9.5 +R1 = R10.50.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Spartan on June 04, 2013, 03:42:54 pm
Thanks all, much appreciated!  :TU:  Makes sense now.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on June 06, 2013, 12:05:53 pm
So falling prey to herd mentality I bought CML.  Looks like it has gone down 3% since :(

Notice those dividends in your account... You haven't lost any money.

I take that back. Orca what's happening here?  ???
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on June 07, 2013, 09:46:30 pm
shares have gained for a few years now since 2009 and cml has made mega profits because of that , do you see them doing the same in the next few years. Their share price based on profits they make and dividends they distribute, but they have no nav , so if they make no income next year, there will be no income, their price is going to tank, and they warned about that, simple sell now and get get out , the clever people have already
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on June 09, 2013, 07:23:31 pm
ok so you see the stock market increasing in value as it has since 2009, I don,t

I actually thought it would have had a decrease last year already, but did not, some of our local shares have started going  down hill, but the abroad shares will follow, so I really do not see them generating the same profits from here on.

and this type of share has no value behind it is only income generated, so if the income has to fall the share suddenly has no value
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on June 10, 2013, 07:30:49 pm
Many unit trusts have had the same or better performances with an fraction of the risk. To invest all in one company is never and good idea.

many people rely on cml for the high income, what will happen to the price of cml if that income is not high enough.

Will there be enough buyers.

I am not trying to bad mouth the share. But many seem to be investing without following the basics. I invest and trade on the jse, but spread my risk.

I do not put my life savings into shares but have a complete portfolio, Own property I stay in, Own property I rent out for a income guaranteed to increase, Have money in insurance products, invest on the jse to enhance growth and make a couple of bucks if I read it correctly.

Investing consists of 3 pillars, Spread your risk


Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on June 26, 2013, 10:22:55 am
Hi guys, haven't been online for a few months and of course went to the old website but nobody home! Trying to tell me something?  :))

CML - do you see any dips in the near future or is it on it's way to bigger things as I want to buy R83k's worth?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on June 26, 2013, 10:39:13 am
Hi guys, haven't been online for a few months and of course went to the old website but nobody home! Trying to tell me something?  :))

CML - do you see any dips in the near future or is it on it's way to bigger things as I want to buy R83k's worth?

CML is a purely profit based company. As long as the JSE keeps going up, they'll keep making profits, pay good dividends and likely increase in value. Some valuations I've seen put fair value in the early 90's. If the market keeps heading up that shouldn't be a problem. Pity you didn't have the money to put away a couple of days ago!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on June 26, 2013, 02:22:04 pm
Hi guys, haven't been online for a few months and of course went to the old website but nobody home! Trying to tell me something?  :))

CML - do you see any dips in the near future or is it on it's way to bigger things as I want to buy R83k's worth?

OK so I see you buying with your R83k and pushing the price up, thanks. Now do the same with OCE thanks.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on June 26, 2013, 03:31:05 pm
Thanks will do so.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: MarketMaker on June 26, 2013, 08:27:48 pm
Profit taking started when she climbed too high above the center 20 SMA line that was also her support as can be seen further back.

Moving averages are not support or resistance levels. What on earth are you talking about?

She broke through the sma and stopped on the lower Bollinger Band support and slowly climbed back up to the sma that became resistance.

You're making the fundamental mistake that all amateurs make when attempting to read technicals. You're recursively attempting to analyse the movements without understanding what it is you're looking at. And again, moving averages are not support and resistance levels. Never have they indicated such, nor will they ever.

You are attempting to discuss technical analysis that you clearly haven't the foggiest idea about...

Today she managed to break through it and with good volumes and if she can close above it today then the sma should become support once more and her next target is the top BB at 6500.

What the hell are you talking about again? See previous posts...

Now 6500 will once again be too high above the sma and it will drop again towards the sma support with profit taking.

You're really fixated on SMAs for some reason. They do not represent market sentiment and certainly don't dictate CML's movements. Again, you're analysing technicals incorrectly. If the SMA dictated CML volatility and trading range (as you incorrectly imply) then why are you not trading it?

If this support can hold then the BB's channel will get narrower with time and make her less volatile.
This is a perfect scenario and nothing is perfect on the markets.

Actually this is a bullshit scenario - one that you concocted in your own head...
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on June 27, 2013, 10:06:40 am
Hi guys, haven't been online for a few months and of course went to the old website but nobody home! Trying to tell me something?  :))

CML - do you see any dips in the near future or is it on it's way to bigger things as I want to buy R83k's worth?

OK so I see you buying with your R83k and pushing the price up, thanks. Now do the same with OCE thanks.

No haven't bought yet had an order to buy at R57 but don't see it going back there so will try and get the best price under say R60
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on July 02, 2013, 01:48:36 pm
There is no resistance  >:D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 02, 2013, 04:24:30 pm
Orca, u by the coast? Please feed my fishies ..  :laugh:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on July 08, 2013, 11:18:35 am
The fair value calculation you're mentioning was based on the last set of results. As CML is a purely profit based share a bad set of results could change that drastically for the worse. On the plus side, a good set of results could also change it drastically for the better.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 15, 2013, 11:04:07 am
Orca, can you please sell, then it will shoot past R70.  8)

Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 15, 2013, 12:02:49 pm
Dammit Orca, concentrate, concentrate .....  >:(

Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on July 15, 2013, 12:13:11 pm
Just tried to jaDEB. Too volatile. Tried at 6840, then at 6828 and then it dropped to 6785 so left it.
Just put an order on to sell at R 70 expiring end September and sit back and wait for it to get to that level. If the funds under management are not stella I doubt that the sensible investor will punish them it will only be the trader who may take flight.  :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on July 15, 2013, 02:18:46 pm
We will see what happens next week. Put an order in at 6800 for half my holding. Portfolio too heavy with CML.
Would that be your 12267 shares sitting there just about to be gobbled up - currently trading 67.91 and should hit 68 this afternoon. OOPs some have gone at 68 already
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on July 15, 2013, 02:35:21 pm
All gone at 68 and trading 68.10 and 68.19 Keeping my price on at 70
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 15, 2013, 02:46:49 pm
:mad:

So you sold all of them or only 1/2?


Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on July 15, 2013, 03:03:59 pm
:mad:

So you sold all of them or only 1/2?
Sold half as it became too large percentage wise compared to the other two stocks in my portfolio.
So if the 14720 represented half your CML portfolio then your CML port was worth R 2 mill and then you still have Metair and Pinnacle. So in terms of your long term goal your portfolio is now worth well over R 2 mill - or are my calculations incorrect 8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 16, 2013, 12:08:47 pm
Orca in Portugal back from fishing, checking his investments including his radio to listen how PIGS economy is recovering.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Aragorn on July 17, 2013, 08:29:18 am
Seems they have confidence in this company. Been looking at Astrapak for a while now, but don't have the spare cash to invest.

Coronation raises stake in South Africa's Astrapak to 29.3 pct.
South Africa's Astrapak said on Tuesday Coronation Asset Management had increased its holding in the plastics packaging company to 29.33 percent.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on July 17, 2013, 10:29:57 am
Bear in mind that those investments are by accounts under their management.

Has nothing to do with cml itself
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 19, 2013, 09:00:16 am
Orca,

"I stand to be corrected....they may be closed to new institutional investors but will continue to receive inflows from existing institutional investors and retail investors. "

What does this mean, they are not allowed to get new money?

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on July 19, 2013, 10:09:58 am
SENS

Assets Under Management

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number: 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
JSE share code: CML
(“Coronation”)

ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT

Shareholders are advised that Coronation’s updated figure for
Assets under Management (AUM) as at 30 June 2013 will be
available on the Investor Relations section of
www.coronation.com within an hour of this release.

This is done for each calendar quarter end.

Cape Town
19 July 2013
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on July 19, 2013, 10:26:52 am
Has anyone here bought CML as a SSF? Pro's and cons?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: franz on July 19, 2013, 11:12:19 am
AUM 434 bil, up frm 409 bil in march, 6.1% in 3 months
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on July 22, 2013, 09:17:37 am
Has anyone here bought CML as a SSF? Pro's and cons?

So I take it nobody has bought CML as a Single Stock Future? I just thought that with the share at R65+ and supposedly going to over R90 it would be a good move to buy SSF's? Not so?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Immobilier on July 22, 2013, 08:09:48 pm
Talking to myself again as always. Anyway, I tried and failed to get some responses. It is sad that this competition has SO many entrants and no interaction.
Are you guys all 1c investors and are now too embarrassed to post? I doubt it. I will not post anymore as I feel that I have wasted my time.
Please promise.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on July 22, 2013, 11:46:37 pm
Talking to myself again as always. Anyway, I tried and failed to get some responses. It is sad that this competition has SO many entrants and no interaction.
Are you guys all 1c investors and are now too embarrassed to post? I doubt it. I will not post anymore as I feel that I have wasted my time.

Orca - it serves no purpose for people to post merely for the sake of posting. The forum is really in place for people to learn and venture views on companies that they may be interested in right at this moment. Also accept that many of the people have entered the competition for the competitions sake rather than to post on the forum. So don't get despondent post when you want to and hang the rest - though refrain from posting after you have had a good few cold ones ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on July 23, 2013, 08:43:19 am
Orca, do not stop posting. I read u stuff allot and take advice. Sometime a person is just snowed under and do not have time to reply. I have to lay at least 18 bricks a day or my supervisor kicks my ass.

How is this gold price ..... damn and I is to a scary knob to take the ride...sies....
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moneypenny on July 23, 2013, 08:54:36 am
I will not post anymore as I feel that I have wasted my time.   

No Orca, treat it as your own personal blog, say what you want, when you want and screw the rest.

Talking to myself again as always. Anyway, I tried and failed to get some responses. It is sad that this competition has SO many entrants and no interaction.
Are you guys all 1c investors and are now too embarrassed to post? I doubt it. I will not post anymore as I feel that I have wasted my time.
Please promise.

Really Immobilier, that's your first post?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on July 23, 2013, 11:09:42 am
I would not do that Yozzi. Will give you some figures out my head. Coronation's revenue is highly geared to the markets performance and the market has not been doing too well lately. This is the last quarter before the years final results and I don't see the volatility diminishing.
This quarter's AUM increased less than normal adding to the above problem. This was perhaps due to the closure of new institutional investments and the exchange rate.

March 2012- 6M results. HEPS up by 6%.
Sept 2012- 1Y results. HEPS up 12%. AUM up 37% compared to 35% for 2011 and 28% for 2010.
These were mediocre results and less than expected causing a first ever correction in CML although the increase in AUM was high.

March 2013- 6M results. HEPS up by 72%. This caused a surge in CML's price. Up from its average of 65%pa to 130%pa.
September 2013- 1Y results. The AUM already up in June by 28% and projected to 34% by end September. Due to the market I cannot forsee an increase of more than 5% in HEPS taking last years figures and market performance into account.

So going long on CML with borrowed money will not be wise.

Thanks Orca point taken do you think that today's CML price of just under R65 is about as low as it will go now?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moneypenny on July 23, 2013, 05:39:52 pm
 :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on July 24, 2013, 07:41:00 pm
The market tanked just before 4, cml did well to hold its ground
Title: Re: CML
Post by: MarketMaker on July 26, 2013, 11:45:17 pm
No apology from DJ  :frustrated:

What you must do now DJ, is to do a covert deletion of your post. Get up at midnight, put dark glasses on, lift up your coat collars and sneak to your computer and delete that post. We won't notice.

The post still stands as is. Don't let your paranoia get the better of you.

Carry on talking shit to yourself here. There was a time when I would have been happy to help out in terms of technical analysis but you make it incredibly difficult to in any way want to contribute. Your steadfast belief in SMAs is ridiculous. They are not leading indicators in any way whatsoever, which is what you keep inferring, and you continue to advise people on the basis of SMAs relating to future trading ranges. This is basic stuff - SMAs are not leading indicators at all - they are the very opposite. If you wanted leading indicators you'd use a combination of EMAs and pricing curves, but even this method doesn't factor in much volatility, which is why if you really, really wanted to use a moving average as a leading indicator, you'd adjust your charting options to allow for differential coupling with a price slope. And you wouldn't be using an SMA. The reason that you continually see CML trade within the SMA, and the reason you continue to convince yourself that it is a leading indicator, is because it is in fact a lagging indicator, and will therefore always reflect the appropriate SMA range in terms of price. This is, once again, the mistake that amateurs make when attempting to read technical analysis. The issue here is that you punt your version of nonsense as gospel which at the end of the day is nonsense.

Allow me to reiterate that SMAs are not leading indicators and you can in no way make swing trading predictions (which is what you're doing) on SMAs alone. Especially to the degree that you're going at it.

I don't want a fight here. All I'd like is for you to try a little but of humility for a change and perhaps learn something out of this.

You also discuss future trading ranges, however you'd be looking at one of the oscillators to confirm, not SMA. You might also use a combination of fibonacci analysis as well, but these are very high risk methods. All you're doing is reading into technicals what you admittedly (on another forum) do not know.

I don't think that it's fair that you continue trying to teach others about technical analysis. If you are honest with yourself, you know that you have never ventured into the details thereof and are not in a position to be trying to help others. If you'd like to learn, you might want to start with the basics of lagging indicators and what purpose they serve, as they do not serve to predict future price movements in terms of the trading periods you're referring to.

I'm rarely on here to reply, but that doesn't miraculously make you correct...
Title: Re: CML
Post by: AVM on August 02, 2013, 11:24:29 am
Happy holder since the late R30's  ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 02, 2013, 07:26:58 pm
I have lost all confidence in investec >:D

I think that you mentioned that you dont expect cml to do as well this year, regarding investment bonuses.

Suppose it is sour grapes on my part because I am not in on this great performance.

But I have been bitten in the past by investing in companies that have no actual assets and only grow on investor sentiment and profits.

I am a conservative idiot :)

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on August 02, 2013, 08:14:43 pm


But I have been bitten in the past by investing in companies that have no actual assets and only grow on investor sentiment and profits.

I am a conservative idiot :)
That's what my wife said when I wanted to buy NPN; (I listened).  ;)

Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 02, 2013, 11:02:44 pm
listened to who?

How many did you buy?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on August 03, 2013, 10:44:30 am
listened to who?
Wife, as stated.
How many did you buy?
Zero
The price level of NPN seems over exuberant with a PE of about 47. Earnings are not keeping up with the share price.
Also a fair chunk of earnings increases are purely due to the weakening of the Rand.
At a PE of 30/35 I would possibly consider, if wife agrees.  8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on August 13, 2013, 10:59:01 am
Release Date: 13/08/2013 10:30:00      Code(s): CML        Trading Statement for the financial year ended 30 September 2013

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
Share code: CML
("Coronation")

TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

In terms of paragraph 3.4(b)(i) of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, Coronation is required to report to
shareholders when a reasonable degree of certainty exists that earnings per share (“EPS”) and headline earnings per
share (“HEPS”) for the period to be reported on next are expected to differ by at least 20% when compared to the prior
comparable period.

In terms of this requirement, Coronation hereby advises shareholders that EPS and HEPS for the financial year ending
30 September 2013 are expected to be considerably higher than 20% when compared to those for the financial year
ended 30 September 2012.


A further announcement will be released as soon as there is a reasonable degree of certainty as to the likely range,
within 20%, by which the EPS and HEPS for the financial year ending 30 September 2013 are expected to increase.

Coronation’s financial results for the year ending 30 September 2013 will be released on or about 12 November 2013.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed or reported on by
Coronation’s external auditors.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on August 13, 2013, 11:43:30 am
CML is 13% of my holdings but 50% of my profits!  :TU: (the rest is all in the indi because as you can see in the competition, I pick more losers than winners  :mad:)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 13, 2013, 08:47:53 pm
their full year earnings are going to be considerably higher than 20 %, Their half year earnings were 80% to 100% higher, which caused the price hike.

So getting a full year at @20% + when you where already 80 to 100 at half time makes me wonder ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on August 14, 2013, 09:03:39 am
their full year earnings are going to be considerably higher than 20 %, Their half year earnings were 80% to 100% higher, which caused the price hike.

So getting a full year at @20% + when you where already 80 to 100 at half time makes me wonder ;)
Yes, you are right. All depends on the 'cosiderably higher' figures.  ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 16, 2013, 08:20:00 pm
I think my lon did better than your cml, but then I,m a trader. but as investor not bad either.

Your growth on cml is 29.1 %, mine on lon is 50.73%.

I just put to little in them, but then sgl not doing to bad
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on August 16, 2013, 10:54:56 pm
tgg. Are you sitting down now? I suggest you do so. I will wait awhile.....................
So you sitting now. Good. Lon has done 25% for the past year. CML has done 130% for the past year.
I have a W tatoo on each bum cheek and when I bend down you will see WoW to your Lon.
Must be partaking of the happy juice again :LHST:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 17, 2013, 06:35:41 am
CORONATION FUND MNGRS LD   6603   5406   6979   29.1%   R460,823.37   48.6%


LON    Lonmin plc   2747   3629   5470   50.73%   R150,260.90   16.12%

was refering to the game ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: tgg78703 on August 19, 2013, 09:06:13 pm
So are you going to restate your reply :)

Not tonight though 8)

Remember things change during the year.

and as a trader I would now sell lon and sgl for a while.

I don,t have cml to sell , but methinks it is time to move onto to something else. Cml has had its run and money was made, lots of it
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on August 20, 2013, 06:32:46 pm
Our friend Dr Roffey said last night he wouldn't touch Coronation with a barge pole!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on August 20, 2013, 11:03:29 pm
Our friend Dr Roffey said last night he wouldn't touch Coronation with a barge pole!
Well there are hundreds of punters who wouldn't touch Roffey with a barge pole either, let alone listen to his predictions - he is way worse than e TV's weather man and they are atrocious
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on August 21, 2013, 11:31:57 am
Our friend Dr Roffey said last night he wouldn't touch Coronation with a barge pole!
Well there are hundreds of punters who wouldn't touch Roffey with a barge pole either, let alone listen to his predictions - he is way worse than e TV's weather man and they are atrocious

Think you are right and he's still punting gold to R5000!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on August 21, 2013, 11:52:25 am
Sorry, meant $5000!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Immobilier on August 29, 2013, 08:26:17 pm
This will be my last post on CML.
She bounced above the 20sma for 5 days before breaking down through it towards her next support at the bottom BB. The BB channel has narrowed to the extent that she cannot move much either way between the bottom BB and the resistance at the 20sma.
The USA is green big time at this moment and she may make another break through the 20sma but I doubt it as she was stuck too long breaking down through it.
I will post a chart via my tablet.
You have been harping on day in and day out, non-stop about CML for ages on both forums. You now have 5 consecutive posts, essentially talking to yourself. Your persistent CML posts is certainly one reason I limit my vists to both forums (not that anyone cares anyhow). I know you won't stick to your promise in the first sentence, but at least give it a serious go.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on August 30, 2013, 07:59:37 pm
Gents let's keep it on topic minus the personal attacks.

Thanks.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on August 30, 2013, 08:41:02 pm
Postings relative to CML seem to have a euphoria about it - but sometimes it seems more like a pi$$ing competition. Can't imagine what the posts would be like if someone got in early on say Capitec or Woolies or Shoprite. Come on people CML is not extraordinary - just a share that has done well
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on September 11, 2013, 09:53:08 am
I'm in between two threads here - CML & STX INDI - my plan was to invest a hefty sum in the INDI but I think it was Orca who said there could be a correction in the near term so where do you see CML going? Will it hit the R90+ that you guys were saying a few months ago or has it run it's race?

I was thinking of a short term investment in CML and hopefully get into the INDI later or are there any other options that you think would be worth looking at?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on September 11, 2013, 10:46:57 am
I'm in between two threads here - CML & STX INDI - my plan was to invest a hefty sum in the INDI but I think it was Orca who said there could be a correction in the near term so where do you see CML going? Will it hit the R90+ that you guys were saying a few months ago or has it run it's race?

I was thinking of a short term investment in CML and hopefully get into the INDI later or are there any other options that you think would be worth looking at?

Remember the indi will only correct if the majority of the 25 companies which make it up correct too. It'll pretty much only happen if the market corrects.

Just FYI, this month I'll be buying the midcap index: http://www.shareforum.co.za/shares/rmb-midcap-etf/
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 11, 2013, 11:06:14 am
If you look at the chart, you will see that the TOPI has hit an all time high. That brown line is the 200 day sma and you can see that if the gap gets too wide, she always retreats back towards it. It is not a matter of if but when.
Now this. "when" is important for CML as her year end books close at the end of this month. Should this correction happen before then, then her earnings will get hit badly.
One must also remember that investors are expecting at least 80% increase in earnings and anything below that will send her hurtling downwards.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: cknt on September 11, 2013, 05:07:34 pm
Postings relative to CML seem to have a euphoria about it - but sometimes it seems more like a pi$$ing competition. Can't imagine what the posts would be like if someone got in early on say Capitec or Woolies or Shoprite. Come on people CML is not extraordinary - just a share that has done well

Go do a comparative graph of CML with all of these shares (and any other) over 1, 2, 3, 5, or 10years. Then come back and retract your post. >:D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 11, 2013, 06:31:56 pm
If you look at the chart, you will see that the TOPI has hit an all time high. That brown line is the 200 day sma and you can see that if the gap gets too wide, she always retreats back towards it. It is not a matter of if but when.
Now this. "when" is important for CML as her year end books close at the end of this month. Should this correction happen before then, then her earnings will get hit badly.
One must also remember that investors are expecting at least 80% increase in earnings and anything below that will send her hurtling downwards.

Just to correct this post.
Diluted HEPS increased by 88% in the 1'st half and I quote.

"EPS and HEPS for the financial year ending
30 September 2013 are expected to be considerably higher than 20% when compared to those for the financial year
ended 30 September 2012."

What they mean by "considerably" higher than 20% is debatable as they ALREADY have 88% on their books. Anything lower than this for full year will be a LOSS for 2'nd half and she will tank.

Please correct me here as I'm not sure about the Divi payout that was 75% of the profit.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on September 12, 2013, 08:55:37 am
Orca, if CML does tank will you climb in and buy more shares?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 12, 2013, 10:13:20 am
Orca, if CML does tank will you climb in and buy more shares?
No yozzi. I am almost done with active investing as I have just about reached my target and will go for ETF's. Not that CML might be a has been great stock. She will still outperform other fund managers on the safety, risk and consistancy of their portfolios thereby attracting large institutional investors into the future. As the CEO said. " We cannot YET draw a line in the sand and say "This is as far as we can go","
At some stage this "YET" must come to an end as it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to buy and sell billions of Rands in shares. We have seen lately that they have resorted to acquisitions in companies.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 23, 2013, 07:39:35 pm
If Immobilier and gcr will allow me, I will post this chart. CML is at the end of her FY earnings. If the results are lower than expected then here is the support she will be headed to. That will be -18%. Not too bad and will be a good correction for her PE ratio to normalize.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 23, 2013, 07:58:27 pm
Oops. Forgot to add that the results will be out in November and the 200sma will have gone up some. Perhaps to 6000 at most. Depending if it flattens.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on October 01, 2013, 02:39:58 pm
Nice to see you having a good day Orca .....  :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 01, 2013, 02:54:45 pm
Nice to see you having a good day Orca .....  :TU:
Thanks jaDEB. Sure am after weeks of watching grass grow.
To be expected though because their FY books closed yesterday and as there were no corrections during the last half year, they locked in the profits for Nov report. The profits can only be excellent.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on October 04, 2013, 12:15:19 pm
See you above R70 again. I think your call for R90 by year end might be a good call, I think. I hope that my fishies clap the R105 level by year end.

It was at R97 in August.  O:-)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 04, 2013, 01:14:25 pm
Above 70 and buy volumes much higher than sells. We should see a new high today.   ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 04, 2013, 01:34:19 pm
Just did. Went to 7077. Previous high was 7048.
Shouldn't go higher though. Perhaps only during auction.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 06, 2013, 08:16:29 pm
Just as I thought. Got stuck at 7070. The previous high was 7048 so frustrated traders were selling at a small profit after waiting so long to get out at a small profit or evens after costs.  8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 16, 2013, 11:03:00 am
Funds under management coming out soon. CML is the best performing stock on the JSE over the past 5 year period with total returns of 1685%.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 17, 2013, 07:26:32 pm
Oh dear. Running past her feet again. She never learns. Due for a pullback very soon like in tomorrow. Then again the media (Best stock over 5 years) she has had lately might just be the cause of this upsurge. A pullback of R6 towards the 20sma will be good for long term sustainability.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 22, 2013, 07:28:40 pm
Too high too fast once again. Or is it results coming up.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 25, 2013, 12:15:23 pm
Now who was throwing that 40% odd figure around ?

Trading Statement for the financial year ended 30 September 2013

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
Share code: CML
("Coronation" or “the Company”)

TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

In terms of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, and further to the
SENS announcement of 13 August 2013, Coronation is pleased to report to
shareholders that earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the
financial year ended 30 September 2013 are expected to be between 90% and
110% higher than those for the prior financial year. Diluted headline
earnings per share are expected to be between 100% and 120% higher than those
for the prior financial year.

Coronation’s results for the year ended 30 September 2013 will be released on
or about 12 November 2013.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not
been reviewed or reported on by Coronation’s auditors.

Shareholders are further advised that Coronation’s total Assets Under
Management (AUM) figure as at 30 September 2013 (updated for each calendar
quarter end) will be available on the Investor Relations section of
www.coronation.com within an hour of this release.

Cape Town
25 October 2013
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 25, 2013, 12:41:02 pm
I wonder if she will tank now? HY results was 88% and FY +- 110%. This makes it around 20% for second HY. Not bad but much less.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 25, 2013, 12:53:59 pm
I wonder if she will tank now?

Please Orca, don't wonder too much, you are making me nervous.  :))
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 25, 2013, 01:19:46 pm
For the fourth quarter (ending September) of the 2013 financial year, assets under management total R492 billion.
(Up from R409 billion in quarter ended March 2013).

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 25, 2013, 01:31:48 pm
Can someone please tell me I'm wrong with the 20% second half earnings. Surely I must be if you look at the massive increase in AUM. Then again, that increase might have happened mostly in the first half.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 25, 2013, 01:53:33 pm
You are wrong Orca.  :frustrated:

It is comparative periods. First half was up 88% compared to the previous first half year.
The full year was up by 110% compared to the previous full year.
So we should see my R96.00 per share this year.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 25, 2013, 01:58:47 pm
Can someone please tell me I'm wrong with the 20% second half earnings. Surely I must be if you look at the massive increase in AUM. Then again, that increase might have happened mostly in the first half.
Yup, I think you are right. Maybe diluted earnings for the 2nd half look slightly better if one takes into account this statement from the 1st half results:
Quote
If the effect of Secondary Tax on Companies (STC) in the comparative period is removed, as a result of the introduction of Dividends
Tax (DT), the increase in diluted headline earnings per share is 72%.
If you use the 72% figure (instead of the 88% figure), things look a little better.
AUM was up by just over 20% from the Q. ended March 2013, which in turn was up also by about 20% from the preceding quarter.

So, what's your take Orca ?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 25, 2013, 02:02:39 pm
Hah, you are wrong Moonraker. Was fun while it lasted.  :D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on November 06, 2013, 09:45:30 am
Do you think CML will get to the century mark or fall short in the nervous 90's?

Will we see a lot of sellers IF it gets over R90?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 06, 2013, 09:53:05 am
Look at it this way. CML made massive profits as the SENS showed and the results will be out on the 12'th to confirm this that we already know.
Nothing bar a market crash will stop her reaching 97 by year end even with the market correction due. By May next year she should be hitting the 145 mark.The May results might be a problem though as she cannot beat 100% EPS again. What happens thereafter is anyone's guess.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Nios on November 06, 2013, 02:05:52 pm
@Orca, what triggered you into buying CML at the start?

Do you invest in it purely on technicals or do you use the fundamentals too?

Are you constantly adding to your position?

I guess if the fundamentals aren't sound enough hitting that 145 mark might be a challenge.

What is your stop loss set to? and are you using higher highs?

Surely when it starts turning you'll be stopped out. If you made a massive gain on it over time, you should be safe...Not like it could drop 10% or more in 1 day?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 06, 2013, 02:55:15 pm
@Orca, what triggered you into buying CML at the start?

Do you invest in it purely on technicals or do you use the fundamentals too?

Are you constantly adding to your position?

I guess if the fundamentals aren't sound enough hitting that 145 mark might be a challenge.

What is your stop loss set to? and are you using higher highs?

Surely when it starts turning you'll be stopped out. If you made a massive gain on it over time, you should be safe...Not like it could drop 10% or more in 1 day?

I'm not trading it. It is a long term investment so no stop loss.
Was looking for a good steady gainer to make back my 45% loss in a Managed Account during the crash. I also needed to find stocks with the smallest draw downs for withdrawals when I retire. Took me weeks to go through dozens of charts and made a shortlist with stars for best looking charts. CML got the most stars.
Then read all the SENS and news. Checked their websites and gave them stars. CML got the most stars.
Then chucked all my money at her.

Title: Re: CML
Post by: cknt on November 12, 2013, 08:30:37 am
Orca, PLEASE can we have your opinion on today's financial results, and CML's possible future action? I know you're a specialist on this share!  :)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 12, 2013, 10:09:08 am
Spectacular results not to be repeated easily. The CEO did say that the high earnings was the result of the market being at a cyclical high.
She should perform well until May when the next results come out. What happens then if the earnings are less is anyone's guess. I will be watching the ALSI's performance until then. If the ALSI performs well, then so will Coronation.
CML has evolved into a trading stock and has become somewhat more volatile over the past months as traders get spooked rather quickly and overly so. This will cause an overreaction if results are not as good as expected.
Nevertheless, the fund managers will continue to beat their indexes and keep attracting institutional funds but this may be a problem. The higher their AUM gets, the more difficult it will be to buy the less liquid mid caps and will be forced to change to the lower performing large caps. That may mean the end of the 140% pa she has been doing lately.
I still believe she is a long term hold but will revert back to her 65% pa gains at best.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: cknt on November 12, 2013, 10:15:38 am
Thank you Orca. I'll keep in bottom drawer; more than happy with 65%  8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Nios on November 12, 2013, 06:26:04 pm
Review of cml on 702 now
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 12, 2013, 06:46:20 pm
Review of cml on 702 now

Geez. Missed that. Give us a run down on it please.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on November 13, 2013, 08:21:38 am
Yes, they also had it on Classic FM last night. But sorry Orca I did not hear the interview, had battlefield 4 calling.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on November 13, 2013, 08:56:41 am
Coronation cautious after profit doubles

 November 13 2013 at 08:00am
By Londiwe Buthelezi

Comment on this story

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Johannesburg - After beating average market returns and more than doubling its profit from fund management, independent asset manager Coronation Fund Managers has toned down its expectations for future performance.

“The general stock market, the all share index, was up 27 percent. The average increase for five years was 17 percent. I don’t believe those levels are sustainable. So the outperformance we generated this year, we can’t guarantee it,” Coronation chief executive Anton Pillay said.

The Coronation global emerging markets fund outperformed its benchmark index by 9.3 percent a year in the last five years. The Coronation Africa frontiers portfolio outperformed its benchmark annually by 11.5 percent, since its inception in October 2008. In the year to September alone, it outperformed by 17 percent.

Coronation’s flagship family of funds, the Coronation Houseview equity portfolio outperformed its benchmark by 3.6 percent a year over the 20-year period since its inception. In the 12 months to September, the fund manager returned an alpha of 19.5 percent.

An alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. A fund’s alpha is the excess return it generates compared with returns of the index it is benchmarked on.

Coronation’s global absolute portfolio has generated an alpha of 5.6 percent every year since its launch in August 1999.

But Coronation said the alpha that it generated was lumpy and, at the moment, it was at the height of its cycle. It cautioned investors that it expected lower returns in the future. “We are not saying we will not outperform the benchmarks. We will outperform, but the level of outperformance will be lower,” Pillay said.

He said Coronation’s performance fees were also at a cyclical high and, therefore, when it got to the bottom of the cycle, this could affect its revenues.

“There will be years where the performance fees earned do not significantly contribute to revenue. The years ahead will undoubtedly present a more difficult investment environment,” the company said.

Coronation attracted net inflows of R54 billion, including direct flows into international products of R17bn, in the year to September. The company had 45 percent more assets under management than a year earlier at R492bn.

The investment performance and the increased asset base resulted in an 84 percent increase in the group’s revenue to R3.6bn for the year. Profit from fund management rose by 102 percent to R2bn. The company’s headline earnings a share doubled to R4.339 from R2.173 last year, and diluted headline earnings per share jumped 110 percent to R4.16.

Coronation’s retail business attracted R33bn of the flows into the collective investment schemes industry, increasing Coronation’s market share in long-term retail assets to 13.6 percent from 11.2 percent in September last year.

Coronations’ five domestic and international flagship unit trust funds ranked in the first quartile of their categories.

The company declared a final dividend of R2.53 a share, taking the full-year gross dividend to R4.16. The stock fell 0.1 percent to R82.50 yesterday. - Business Report

http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/coronation-cautious-after-profit-doubles-1.1606264

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 13, 2013, 01:46:59 pm
Seems like investors got spooked by that and started banking profits. Wonder where it will turn. Hope she stops at the bottom BB. If not, the 7300 area seems a likely support level.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Nios on November 13, 2013, 06:21:13 pm
What interested me was that they're managing funds to the tune of half the countrys budget of 1trillion rand
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 13, 2013, 06:51:33 pm
What interested me was that they're managing funds to the tune of half the countrys budget of 1trillion rand

That makes it difficult for them to buy due to the huge amounts they have to shove around. Buying off market and making acquisitions will be the way forward.
Was pleasantly surprised to see that buyers are still bidding large amounts at end today. Perhaps we will not see that 7300. Tomorrow will tell. I don't see that 140% pa happening again though.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on November 19, 2013, 02:43:14 pm
SENS ..

Shareholders are advised that Foord Asset Management (Pty) Ltd, on behalf of its clients, have acquired a beneficial
interest in Coronation ordinary shares, such that the total of all interests of Coronation ordinary shares held by
Foord Asset Management (Pty) Ltd, on behalf of its clients, are now 5.03% of the total issued Coronation ordinary
shares.

Cape Town
19 November 2013
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 19, 2013, 03:14:35 pm
Then there's little old me worrying about it correcting soon.   :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on November 19, 2013, 05:45:25 pm
Another one from Moneyweb.

Has Coronation gotten too big? (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-investment-insights/has-coronation-gotten-too-big)

(Si Señor, it ees beeg) - but not in Mexico.  :))
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 19, 2013, 06:45:26 pm
 :TU: :wall: :wtf:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on November 21, 2013, 01:57:41 pm
OH Crap, Orca u there ....


Share code: MTA

ISIN code: ZAE 000090692

(“Metair” or “the Group”)

TRADING STATEMENT

In terms of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements (“Listings Requirements”), issuers are required to
publish a trading statement as soon as they are reasonably certain that the financial results for the
current reporting period will differ by more than 20% from those of the previous corresponding period.

Accordingly, Metair hereby advises that it expects the Group’s headline earnings and earnings per share
for the financial year ending 31 December 2013 to be at least 20% lower than those reported for the
previous corresponding period ended 31 December 2012.

The decrease in earnings is primarily attributable to the negative effects of the 8 week industry wide
strike and the transaction costs incurred during the Mutlu acquisition. The forecast earnings do not take
into account any earnings attributable to the Mutlu Group.

Further detailed guidance regarding the results for the year ending 31 December 2013 will be published
once the Group obtains additional certainty in this regard.

It is anticipated that the Group’s results will be published towards the end of March 2014.

The information contained in this trading statement has not been reviewed or reported on by the
Group’s auditors.

By order of the Board.

Johannesburg

21 November 2013

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 21, 2013, 02:34:14 pm
Saw that jaDEB. No sweat as their Turkish acquisition cost them big bucks. They paid no divies due to this plus they negotiated with Coronation for a large off market share purchase which has been concluded.
Their new battery plant will only come on line in a month and a half so I never expected anything from MTA until next years FY results. I still maintain my call for stock of the year for 2015.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on December 04, 2013, 04:50:58 pm
Damn, even the Prince of the JSE is down.....  :wall:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on December 04, 2013, 06:27:59 pm
Broken through the bottom Bollinger Band for the first time ever and pushed it down. Tug of war between the bad SA economy results and the good NFP. Tomorrow will tell. My guess is that she will jump back up above the band if that drop was with thin volumes.
 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on December 06, 2013, 08:12:22 pm
She followed my instructions. Back up above the bottom BB.  :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: franz on December 07, 2013, 11:35:05 am
Paid out a pretty nice divi, interesting to see how much it will drop on Monday, about 2.30 i guess
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on December 07, 2013, 12:30:30 pm
Broken through the bottom Bollinger Band for the first time ever and pushed it down. Tug of war between the bad SA economy results and the good NFP. Tomorrow will tell. My guess is that she will jump back up above the band if that drop was with thin volumes.
Ah.. NFP ? wotdat ?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on December 07, 2013, 05:00:39 pm
Jobs data. Non Farm Payrolls.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on December 18, 2013, 06:08:19 pm
As CML is by far the biggest stock holding in my portfolio, I have to watch it carefully. She hates to leave a vacuum behind in the form of a Gap. Yesterday she closed at 8120 and today she opened lower and only had a high of 8036. This means that 84c is missing on the upside so she needs to get back to at least 8120 to close this gap.
Fed news allowing, she should do so by Friday. The volume is a bit low so hopefully it will still work.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on January 16, 2014, 10:03:44 am
AUM time again. Holding thumbs.

Release Date: 16/01/2014 10:00:00      Code(s): CML        Assets Under Management

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number: 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
JSE share code: CML
(“Coronation”)

ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT

Shareholders are advised that Coronation’s updated figure for
Assets under Management (AUM) as at 31 December 2013 will be
available on the Investor Relations section of
www.coronation.com within an hour of this release.

This is done for each calendar quarter end.

Cape Town
16 January 2014
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on January 16, 2014, 10:43:43 am
Same here, I hold a few of these, the only non ETF I own.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on January 16, 2014, 11:04:29 am
For the first quarter (ending 31 December 2013) of the 2014 financial year, assets under management total R522 billion.

(Slowing down somewhat - R492 billion in previous ¼)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 16, 2014, 11:28:59 am
New money slowing down but it does not mean that the profits will be less. If the markets go their way equally as well as the same period last year, then the profits will be more. Doubt that the markets will do well though.

Oops. Forgot about the all the xmas bonuses and the Golden Handshake that will be included in the next results.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 21, 2014, 08:00:30 pm
With those of us that still have CML in our portfolio, here is my technical observation. The BB is narrowing and this means that a breakout either way is imminent. So far after today's good run, it seems to be on the upside. Bounced off the bottom BB and perhaps headed for the top band. Perhaps investors are thinking that good market performance will equate to good Coronation Profits regardless of the smaller increase in AUM. An increase is just that. An increase over and above the last increase.

I included the RSI index as it is in my view an important index. All bounces off the 40 shows that it is still in a bull run. Lower than 40 will put it in a bear mode to 30 support or break it lower.

Take it or leave it. My 2c.




 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on January 27, 2014, 03:52:11 pm
Moving strongly against the trend today, Orca.  :) ± 2% up.
Any news out ?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 27, 2014, 04:11:47 pm
I thought her days of going up when markets tank are over. Seems not to be so. I posted on the competition thread months ago that people that hold CML will always go up in position when the market tanks and they did on Friday and again today.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 31, 2014, 05:49:12 pm
Discussion on channel 410 yesterday. Coronation makes money on performance fees mostly from the retail sector and charged once per year. This fee was was paid to them last month so no matter how the stocks do from now until September 2014, the fees are in their books.
As stocks did well last year, the profits will be great and this will reflect in their report in September. Almost like profits in Arrears.
The analysts only concern seemed to be Managers Performance Bonuses that could erase many millions off the profits. This is not "gravy train" or self enrichment. The large performance bonuses has to be Large for them to keep their fund managers and to keep the company the best Fund Managers in SA.

My view is that 2 years ago, they paid these heavy bonuses out of their profits and the share price plunged. That was the first correction CML had. May/June 2012.
Last year they paid these bonuses from a trust fund that held CML shares and it did not affect the profits at all. Hopefully they have done the same again.   


 
 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: aae on January 31, 2014, 09:27:42 pm
I have never bought cml, but am doing ok with  sgl , but then again I did not have a massive loss to recuperate ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on February 03, 2014, 05:38:50 pm
 :TU: Over R20m was vested to managers today from the "Coronation Bonus Pool Trust". Mostly to 3 managers. So far so good.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on February 03, 2014, 06:55:44 pm
:TU: Over R20m was vested to managers today from the "Coronation Bonus Pool Trust". Mostly to 3 managers. So far so good.
Diligent reporting on CML & MTA.. deserves applaud.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on February 03, 2014, 08:54:54 pm
Thanks Moon. At least I know that one person is reading them.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on February 04, 2014, 07:40:25 am
:TU: Over R20m was vested to managers today from the "Coronation Bonus Pool Trust". Mostly to 3 managers. So far so good.

Where do I get a job like that  >:D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on March 09, 2014, 03:01:20 pm
Part of the reason why AGL was down sharply on Friday ?

Notification of major interest in shares


Anglo American plc
Incorporated in the United Kingdom
(Registration number: 3564138)
Short name: Anglo
Share code: AGL
ISIN number: GB00B1XZS820
(the "Company")


NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTEREST IN SHARES

The Company was advised that the following transaction took place on 6 March
2014.

TR-1: NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTEREST IN SHARESi

1. Identity of the issuer or the underlying issuer
                                                                                     Anglo American plc
of existing shares to which voting rights are
attached: ii
2 Reason for the notification (please tick the appropriate box or boxes):

An acquisition or disposal of voting rights
An acquisition or disposal of qualifying financial instruments which may result in the
acquisition of shares already issued to which voting rights are attached
An acquisition or disposal of instruments with similar economic effect to qualifying
financial instruments
An event changing the breakdown of voting rights
Other (please specify):
                      Holding decreased below 5%                                                 x


3. Full name of person(s) subject to the notification obligation: iii
                                                                  Coronation Asset Management (Pty) Ltd
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on March 11, 2014, 05:27:41 pm
And I predicted R90 by month end and now it is nearly R94.  R140 by end September.   :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on March 11, 2014, 05:53:35 pm
Aside from the indi, this is the only share I own  ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on March 11, 2014, 07:05:45 pm
Aside from the indi, this is the only share I own  ;D

Great. It was my ONLY share for years before the guys on the other forum convinced me to diversify. Pity I did but CML is still by far my biggest holding. To think that I was considering of selling off a large part but my intense dislike of paying tax put me off.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on April 01, 2014, 11:46:10 am
Was I hearing correctly on BDTV last night that one of the technical analysts said to go short on CML as a pull back to R90 or below is possible?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 01, 2014, 02:59:42 pm
Possible but I doubt it. The price is rising as a Trading Statement is expected very soon and as the markets have made new highs, that statement should be good.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 09, 2014, 03:19:58 pm
The trading statement today states that earnings should be greater than 20%. This is great but the previous trading statement stated that earnings will be "considerably" higher than 20% and it turned out to be just over 100%.

The wording of the statement to me means that things are slowing down but not bad at all hence no jump after the SENS and is somewhat flat.
Still good to go upwards but at a slower pace.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: cknt on April 10, 2014, 03:10:05 pm
The sens says HEPS and EPS are going to be more than 20% HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO the same corresponding period last year; i.e. more than 130%!?  >:D So why is CML not flying; financial sector keeping it back??
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 10, 2014, 05:25:42 pm
Doesn't actually work like that. Difficult to explain but here is my version.
My shop's profits grew by 100% compaired to the previous year and this year it only grew by 20% over and above that old 100%. So it only grew by 20% as that 100% growth is already "normal".
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on April 11, 2014, 11:03:58 am
Still Hot..

Coronation - Hot or Not (http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=3455789021001)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 11, 2014, 01:03:14 pm
Once again she went too high above the normal gradient and a pull back is appropriate at this stage.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 14, 2014, 07:09:41 pm
CML made an earlier comeback that I was hoping for. I don't like unsustainable strong upward movements in any of my long term stocks.
As can be seen, she made a good Hammer candle today (long shadow/tail) that indicates another green day or more.
The fact that the US markets are looking good tonight means that she might go higher than the middle of the red candle and this will be a
Morning Star. A reversal of the recent short term down trend.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 15, 2014, 07:09:53 pm
So that failed due to market sentiment. No problem as she is under the 20sma and will most probably as normal continue down to the lower BB and continue along it or bounce off. A ritual she has maintained over the years. Top BB and back to the lower BB.
 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 16, 2014, 08:23:02 pm
Here we go with a normal retractment to the lower BB. This is normal and if markets allow, then if she goes up to the middle of the red candle or higher tomorrow then we have a Morning Star reversal and up we go. The BB is in a steep rise so a bottom will be at around 93 +
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Nivek on April 25, 2014, 09:39:01 am
CML>100  ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 25, 2014, 01:41:44 pm
That Morning Star candle formation worked.  :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 25, 2014, 07:12:49 pm
Have you ever done the calculation to see where you'd be today if you never diversified like all the other forum members suggested...?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 26, 2014, 07:24:44 pm
Without reinvesting the divies, I would have made R7.1M more than I have now. This sucks.  :wall:
This is if I had stayed in from 5 years ago without selling and buying back in and eventually diversifying to pressure from alarmists dissing my 1 stock portfolio that I was adamant will be a long term winner.
Sadly this move cost me dearly. Very dearly.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 28, 2014, 10:34:18 am
I remember that from the dark side, hence my (from bread) 1 share policy.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Snakepit on April 28, 2014, 08:52:47 pm
Orca, I know what you are saying. Bought Naspers at a rand a share and bought Multichoice at a rand a share. Sold them all!!!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on April 29, 2014, 10:45:23 am
I think surpassed most peoples expectations ?

Trading statement for the half year ended 31 March 2014

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
Share code: CML
("Coronation" or “the Company”)

TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2014

In terms of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, and further to the
SENS announcement of 9 April 2014, Coronation is pleased to report to
shareholders that earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the
half year ended 31 March 2014 are expected to be between 45% and 65% higher
than those for the prior comparable period. Diluted headline earnings per
share are expected to be between 60% and 80% higher than those for the prior
comparable period.

Coronation’s results for the half year ended 31 March 2014 will be released
on or about 20 May 2014.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 29, 2014, 10:48:22 am
Ag no, there your tax goes up again Orca ......  :LHST:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 29, 2014, 01:00:38 pm
I have a weakness for CML, decided to buy some more today...

I would see someone about it, but it hasn't caused any harm in the past.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 29, 2014, 05:06:20 pm
That is a better than expected performance. Just got home from the tax office to file my 2015 tax to find this.
Not had time to study it and the charts on quick glance, it seems cheap at this price.
I don't seem to get much time for any posting lately. Back to SARS tomorrow with more forms then off to a place somewhere up near the equator called Johannesburg for my passport.
And jaDEB, I am not a SA taxpayer anymore.  :TU:
And I am exempt from tax in Portugal for ten years due to their policy of attracting foreigners with new money.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 30, 2014, 08:19:56 am
And I am exempt from tax in Portugal for ten years due to their policy of attracting foreigners with new money.

 :TU: You should post that in the tax thread.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on April 30, 2014, 10:40:18 am
And I am exempt from tax in Portugal for ten years due to their policy of attracting foreigners with new money.

 :TU:You should post that in the tax thread.

Did they introduce this policy before or after they went bankrupt ?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 30, 2014, 02:31:52 pm
They have had that policy for about 2 years now.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 30, 2014, 09:02:19 pm
My Broker calculated that CML is now Fully Valued. Expected returns for this year is 5%. I don't believe that as they sold at 4700.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 19, 2014, 07:10:55 pm
How's this bounce off support?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 20, 2014, 11:45:11 am
Did I miss some news on CML today?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Shi on May 20, 2014, 12:08:34 pm
Interims out this morning.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: franz on May 20, 2014, 12:19:25 pm
Did I miss some news on CML today?

OUTLOOK

The past six months mark yet another exceptional period for the business and for our clients. While equity markets have continued to be

strong, the absolute levels of return are not sustainable and we caution investors to re-set their expectations for the years ahead.

Coronation is a cyclical business and we envisage a difficult investment environment with increased market volatility.


Going forward our focus remains fixed on creating long-term value for all our stakeholders.


I think that's the reason for the down move today
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 20, 2014, 03:52:51 pm
That statement by Pillay spooked new investors that don't know that every report has that same warning.

CML always drops after after results no matter how good they are. Not as much as today thought but I think

it is due to there being so many more new investors that panic sold to keep their profits.

She is resting on the BB lower now so she should go up from here. Perhaps some overshoot but up, she will go.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on May 21, 2014, 10:56:32 am
So this must be a good buying opportunity? Just gone below R94 now!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 21, 2014, 12:58:38 pm
I just have to wonder if there isn't more to the price drop...

I'm buying again in a few days. I really hope these levels hold, I'll take some here instead of going for the indi which looks expensive to me right now...

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 21, 2014, 02:30:47 pm
Seems like most of the stupid money is out now and the clever money is starting to push it up again.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 23, 2014, 09:35:47 am
Daly my money only arrived in the broker account today, so I missed the really low prices but did a few more...
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 23, 2014, 12:44:05 pm
Daly my money only arrived in the broker account today, so I missed the really low prices but did a few more...
Surely you have an arrangement with your broker that you can transfer funds by EFT and they update your broker account immediately so that you can buy shares within that limit? ;D
Title: Re: CML
Post by: franz on May 23, 2014, 01:13:28 pm
Daly my money only arrived in the broker account today, so I missed the really low prices but did a few more...
[/
quote]

I always have funds available in my trading account for opportunities like that and you get a fair interest, around 4+% with BoE.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 23, 2014, 04:25:25 pm
Daly my money only arrived in the broker account today, so I missed the really low prices but did a few more...
Surely you have an arrangement with your broker that you can transfer funds by EFT and they update your broker account immediately so that you can buy shares within that limit? ;D

Haha I wish, somehow I'm not sure I'll convince absa on that idea!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 23, 2014, 06:22:51 pm
Daly my money only arrived in the broker account today, so I missed the really low prices but did a few more...
Surely you have an arrangement with your broker that you can transfer funds by EFT and they update your broker account immediately so that you can buy shares within that limit? ;D

Haha I wish, somehow I'm not sure I'll convince absa on that idea!
If you bank with ABSA and your brokers are ABSA then no problem - you can always send proof of payment and they can act on that immediately - test them out
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 26, 2014, 04:48:12 pm
I tend to agree with Pillay's statement that there is no more vaue in CML. She will not recover post divi day.
Did some research and the consensus is 12% up and 20% down for the year. The average consensus is - 5%.

There is a silver lining though. Global Emerging Markets have been hit lately and Coronation has pumped billions into these funds. Should they recover, then so would CML. SARS takes a huge portion of their profits but their GEM profits are either not taxed or taxed at a much lower rate. This tax savings will reflect favorably as they continue to pump money into these GEM funds.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 27, 2014, 08:51:14 am
I think CML's share price is being hurt due to their extensive holdings in ABIL - reputed to be north of R 127 million but really a small % of their total funds under management
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 27, 2014, 11:15:14 am
CML has 1.7% in ABIL.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 30, 2014, 01:52:55 pm
There she goes. A bit early but sellers were equal to buyers for some days now. Perhaps some institutions are climbing in early for the divi?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on May 30, 2014, 02:22:49 pm
 :TU: That's more like it. It is quite a healthy dividend coming up.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: franz on May 30, 2014, 03:26:44 pm
MSCI emerging markets rebalancing, CML added to Index   
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 30, 2014, 05:44:36 pm
From Bloomberg.

Patric Gutzmer 8 days ago

Yes it's correct to not expect these returns going forward but this company will continue to make returns that exceed the jse indexes. Definitely one to have in the portfolio with a heavy weighting. Look at the last ten years and you will see why. As their tv advertising says " trust is earned".
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 27, 2014, 06:19:44 pm
Now as I was saying some time back. CML now will now have to prove her worth. She has reached her support on the BB lower plus the 100SMA. If you look on the chart, you will see the bounce a bit further back when she reached these support levels. Next week she should mirror that same reaction or she is spent.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 30, 2014, 10:10:10 pm
A bit of a bounce but we will see if it carries on up or just follows the trendline and bottom BB.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on September 04, 2014, 08:48:34 pm
I see CML has gone through the R100 barrier where do you think it's headed will we see R140+?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on September 05, 2014, 08:35:13 am
By when do u think R140?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on September 05, 2014, 09:58:41 am
Orca mentioned R140 some time ago but not sure what sort of timeframe?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on September 05, 2014, 09:59:21 am
They've been earning shareholders for some time now that they expect market returns and also their income to slow in growth. I haven't seen any other announcement by then but I'll Orca is the cml expert so let's see what he says.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on September 05, 2014, 02:10:31 pm
CML's share price is largely dependent on how the markets perform. Here are approximate figures for the Top40 and the Indi over 3 years.
Top40
22% over the past year.
25% ave. pa over 2 years.
26% ave. pa over 3 years.

Indi
25% over the past year.
35% ave. pa over 2 years.
43% ave. pa over 3 years.

As these are average pa figures, the performance this year is rather lower than prior years. This is reflected in CML's results that fell from 102% to 69% (HEPS).
For the 8 months of this year she has gained just under 30% and for the past year she gained 50%. Substantially less than the 130% pa ave. Bear in mind that the market was flat November to end February as was CML. Her spectacular performance of 102% in December did not reflect on the share price due to low market sentiment and the negative comment by the CEO did not help either. The words "Turbulence, lumpy and Not sustainable" come to mind.

The 69% increase in HEPS announced in May sent her slightly down. Now if excellent results do nothing and great results send her slightly down then what will get her to perform as she did 1, 2 and 3 years ago? Those days are in the past and thoughts of a repetition is a dream.

I am quite happy with 30%pa that I'm sure she will do at minimum being the most successful third party fund manager in SA.
The fact that Foord and Investec recently upped their stake to 5% in CML. Not to mention the Goliath of fund managers PIC that added CML to their holdings last week. They now hold 10.2% of CML's shares. This gives me some comfort as they bought close to R100.




Title: Re: CML
Post by: Moonraker on October 24, 2014, 03:24:44 pm
Release Date: 24/10/2014 15:00:00      Code(s): CML        Trading statement for the financial year ended 30 September 2014

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
Share code: CML
("Coronation" or “the Company”)

TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2014

In terms of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, Coronation is
pleased to report to shareholders that earnings per share and headline
earnings per share for the financial year ended 30 September 2014 are
expected to be between 30% (564.2 cents) and 40% (607.6 cents) higher than
those for the prior financial year (F2013: 434 cents).

Diluted headline earnings per share are expected to be between 30% (540.8
cents) and 40% (582.4 cents) higher than those for the prior financial year
(F2013: 416 cents).

Coronation’s results for the year ended 30 September 2014 will be released on
or about 11 November 2014.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not
been reviewed or reported on by Coronation’s auditors.

Shareholders are further advised that Coronation’s total Assets Under
Management (AUM) figure as at 30 September 2014 (updated for each calendar
quarter end) will be available on the Investor Relations section of
www.coronation.com within an hour of this release.

Cape Town
24 October 2014
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on October 24, 2014, 04:55:34 pm
 :TU:
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 24, 2014, 05:20:46 pm
As I stated in my post above. Good news and down she goes.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on October 30, 2014, 11:39:25 am
Sunday Times. CML was the best performing stock over a 5 year term on the JSE for the second consecutive year gaining on average 78% pa.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: yozzi on November 14, 2014, 12:03:10 pm
Are we seeing the price rise to over R102 due to buyers getting in to benefit from the expected divi?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 14, 2014, 10:54:42 pm
Are we seeing the price rise to over R102 due to buyers getting in to benefit from the expected divi?

Yes, but expect the post divi to take ages to revive as normal.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on January 15, 2015, 03:15:09 pm
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT

Shareholders are advised that Coronation’s updated figure for
Assets under Management (AUM) as at 31 December 2014 will be
available on the Shareholder Information section of
www.coronation.com within an hour of this release.

This is done for each calendar quarter end.

Cape Town
15 January 2015

Assets under management as at 31 December 2014 total R604 billion
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 21, 2015, 08:54:02 pm
Looking better but not out the woods yet. Movements of R4 to R6 in a day seems too common in this market climate.

Sorry, the 26 MA should be 9 MA.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on January 27, 2015, 04:07:00 pm
Quite strong support levels as shown here. Three support levels come together here.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on February 18, 2015, 10:05:41 pm
jaDEB requested a prediction for 2015 so here goes.

A brief history in time.---- Now this rings a bell. Some scientist said this. Perhaps Richard Dawkings or Richard Hawkings. I'm sure it was not Branson. Not sure but anyway. The reason why jaDEB asked me this is because he and I are the longest members of what he calls "The Dark Side"forum and he remembers how I hyped up CML since 2009 with much criticism as she was the only stock in my portfolio. I call her "She" as I was married to her. I had a blog there that I updated monthly with my actual money balance that I had in her with my withdrawals as I had retired early and relied on her performance.

As my balance grew over time, the criticism dwindled to the point that I got emails thanking me for pointing them to this relatively unknown stock trading at under R20 at the time. I did not mean to give advice. I was only giving my personal experience. 

The reason I chose CML. Well, my managed account lost 45% of my "pension money" during the crash of 2008/9 so I as a dumbo with stocks was thrown in the deep end to do it myself. So I sold at the very bottom and went into cash then looked into past good momentum stocks and found CML to be the best to regain my losses. This was my pension money after all and I just could not make a mistake as I was not getting any younger. I was hell bent on recouping my loss.

I meant that to be a brief history but..... Anyway, I was on a good stock that more than met my needs and allowed me to retire in Portugal before I expected. She made about 1,450% returns but I actually did not do as well as that as I sold and re bought on occasions. Stupid me. Tax tax tax.

Sorry about the preamble and long post but I will give my opinion next.









 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on February 18, 2015, 10:42:53 pm
CML was very predictable in her youth as she was a momentum stock and not traded. Now she has become a trading stock as can can be seen on the large volumes traded per day and will follow traders technical charts to some degree.

My concern is that her purse is now full and cannot accommodate any more investments into her. So the Assets Under Management (AUM) will decrease. It has to as how is it possible to buy a stock on market for R100M? They now have to negotiate Off Market Bulk Purchase with the Co's concerned.

So now I am bowing out of CML but it is still a good stock and expect a modest 35% pa return for this year. Yes, this is great if you compare it to STXIND 23%
Topi 40 10% for the year.

The good green bodied candles and the MACD has made a buy on Short Term only.

Over 2 years:
CML 127%
INDI 60%
TOPI 35%

No bonuses paid to CML managers for the next results so I expect good earnings as I see that their UT's are doing exceptionally well over the benchmarks.
 

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 11, 2015, 10:06:20 pm
i have been rather negative with CML as of late as she has given me 0% over the past year but things may have changed. Here in Europe, the market analysts have targeted Emerging Markets as the "Money to be in" compared to developed markets. This has been big on Business News here from last week.

Perhaps this is why CML has "revived" as more foreign investments are expected to pour into the bulging Coronation purse.
Over full in my view as they cannot do acquisitions but have to negotiate Off Market share buying as buying R1Billion On market is just impossible.

Here is a chart of CML. The short term chart shows lower lows and lower highs that put her into her down trend. Note that this chart has "weekly candles" and not the daily so it is more for longer term. Seems like she has to get to R120 soon.
   
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 13, 2015, 08:35:03 am
That would be good news, not only for CML, but the market in general. If you find a good news link pleae post it.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 18, 2015, 07:43:19 pm
I have CML to release a trading update on the 24th or (because of the ph 28)? Not sure where I am getting that from, but I guess previous SENS?

I am expecting pretty decent results for the simple reason that CML is a proxy for the market. Market did badly last year - CML lagged, yet the market has done well this year but CML has still flat lined.

Gut says we will see a jump soon to R125 - R130 level - after this trading statement.

Could be wishfull thinking - I have over 10% in CML.

If not I'll pull out my sour grapes card and say I'm in it for the dividend, which I am....  8)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 20, 2015, 01:28:23 pm
If no trading statement by next Friday, I will sell my entire CML holdings but I am positive due to the following:
Coronation's flagship UT continues to be by far the best 5 year performer. Up by +-230%.
Coronation UT's are the most clicked on UT's. Moneyweb, I think stated this. Or was it MoneyMorning?
Foreigners targeting superior gains in emerging markets.

Hopefully they will pay performance bonuses out as shares and not in cash again this year.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 23, 2015, 07:10:20 pm
Bought a few more this morning - so I hope the news I am expecting is in SENs tomorrow...
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 28, 2015, 04:55:31 pm
The board of directors of Coronation is satisfied that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that
diluted headline earnings per share (“DHEPS”) for the half year ended 31 March 2015 are expected
to be between 5% (261.6 cents) and 15% (234.1 cents) lower than the DHEPS for the half year ended
31 March 2014 (275.4 cents).

 :'(
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 28, 2015, 05:52:32 pm
Ouch yeah I felt that drop!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 29, 2015, 01:18:35 am
I felt it big time in like R200k gone in 30 minutes. Hopefully it was overdone and will not carry on down. . Coronation did after all win the Raging Bull Award for this year This means all the other UT Managers did worse.
The AUM gain was not too bad and more than I expected.
 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on April 29, 2015, 08:51:45 am
Well I see some joker is bidding R 101.29 against offers of R 95
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 29, 2015, 09:42:25 am
Luckily only had 10% CML in my main account - had about 70% in my little account though, so basically placed a R40K bet  :frustrated:

Lesson 275 on how not to invest - completed

 ::)

Ouch Orca - maybe give it a day or two - as you say, probably a bit oversold at the moment - PE was around 17, so not expensive. I am hoping they keep the dividend the same. BTW have been looking into camper vans - around 10,000 pounds gets you a nice 2 berth with toilet. Just playing with the idea of a cheap flat over here and a camper van there for 6mnths/6mnths.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 29, 2015, 09:58:55 am
With CML, I can't afford rent any more so looking at camper vans myself. I had 78% in CML and I planned to sell last Friday. Stoopid me.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 29, 2015, 10:18:04 am
Things could be worse - you could be looking at tents...  ;)
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on April 29, 2015, 10:26:19 am
I'm just under 7% CML, bought before I got onto my "only but index funds" mantra. But considering my average cost is around R50, and all the big divvies we've been paid from CML I'm not too upset. That said, I really hope they manage to pull in a big chunk of funds going forward with the tax free accounts. Not sure how their products in that category look though.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 29, 2015, 11:36:09 am
I could have bought a brand new campervan with what I lost. Not too bad as I bought at 27.40.
Seems to have bottomed out for today at least but I would think bargain hunters might throw a party now. Still not a bad result so all this is by far overdone. 1'st half year 2014 was 67% HEPS.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 30, 2015, 08:34:09 pm
I feel sorry for PIC members that lost so much with ABIL. To make matters worse, they chucked money at CML to the tune of 10% at R100 ps after that ABIL loss.  :'(
Then Investec came on board at about the same time and bought a hefty lot of CML shares.

So who is wise? I just don't know any more. We have all heard of "clever and stupid" money have we not?

To get to my point. I thought Clever Money was staying out of CML causing it to flatline for months due to this fact:
The Clever Money realised that the HEPS of 67% achieved for the last period was unachievable for this period so they stayed out causing the stagnation. Only the Stupid Money was entering CML.

Now what is the future prospects? Stagnate with Stupid Money until the next set of results that has to beat 100%+ HEPS of the same period. No chance. So even a worse comparison by far. Another correction looming.

Don't take this as Advice as I have been a moron at investing lately and surely PIC and Investec sees value in CML so a part of me still has some faith in her future. Albeit a small part.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on April 30, 2015, 09:02:05 pm
You haven't had a great year - BUT you did very well before that. Personally, you should be looking at your returns over a 5 year period - one year is a bit short. But as you said, maybe switching to ETF's and still get equity growth but spreading the risk, might be the way to go. Just looking at the investor challenge - quite easy to see most ETF's out perform individual picks - although most are not really portfolios.

Are you going to wait for results and then the dividend - or start a gradual sell off now?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on April 30, 2015, 10:03:38 pm
A very difficult decision as I want the divie. I can live with another 8% down but that will cancel the divie by far.
Will the Stupid Money drive her up? Not sure but will wait a while but not too concerned as I quad druppled my initial investment with her.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: letlhogonolo on April 30, 2015, 11:01:49 pm
I think Mr Dividend is right. I admit I'm just starting out with this investment stuff but I don't think its fair to expect CML to shoot out the lights every year. Maybe its cooling off for a year or two. Or maybe its entered a phase where it will only grow by about 10 to 15 percent a year.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 01, 2015, 02:12:56 pm
CML SENS 28/4 "As detailed in our prior communications, Coronation is a cyclical business with a revenue stream that is highly geared to both the returns of the market and the level of out performance that it generates in the funds it manages on behalf of its clients. The reduced DHEPS is largely attributable to a decline in the abnormally high level of performance fees generated in the prior comparative six-month period"

Orca if the fund holders pay the fees why are the shareholders affected by this?


Not sure what you actually mean qriffin. Fund holders pay performance fees and this is Coronation's Earnings. Poor fund performance = Poor earnings.

Second half year results are historically poorer than the first due to end of year Management Bonuses that add up to millions.
Thankfully, last year they paid these bonuses with shares held in their trust fund and not in cash equivalent that affects the earnings.
The previous year, they were paid in cash and this reflected badly on earnings causing a correction. Perhaps this time they were paid in cash again.

I will do some research on previous results to see if I can pick up something.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 01, 2015, 05:37:47 pm
I'll see what I can find about Coronation's UT's performance. Pity Equinox/PSG has removed the performance comparison thingy.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on May 01, 2015, 08:37:55 pm
What I can't understand is that with the worlds stock markets breaking previous records, like the Nikkei for example hitting the 20 000 for the first time in 15 years CML should be producing amazing results. Any insight that you could provide would be awesome

Ja - you would think! I think though, they need to out perform the market to get the extra management fees - and that's where they are falling down. Have I got that correct Orca?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 01, 2015, 09:53:24 pm
Coronation is a solid company and is well run - I have an order on to purchase more of their shares but it is just not dropping to my price of R 89.00 - wish I could get more at my original purchase price of R 24.98 but suppose will have to wait for cow's to fly f 8)irst
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 02, 2015, 11:11:02 am
They have global UT's but I cannot tell you what percentage of their UT's are in foreign assets.

If she breaks the support at 90 then I will start worrying. A 2 consecutive day under 90 should give her a target to head for the next support at 80.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 04, 2015, 03:03:13 pm
I had to remove all my charts and calculations as they are incorrect. They showed First Half year Preliminary results against the previous year's First Half. That is correct but then showed the Second Half against the Second Half of the previous year. That is incorrect as it should be Full Year against the previous Full Year.

So back to the drawing board.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 04, 2015, 04:50:50 pm
As Coronation's earnings depend largely on the market performance here it clearly shows the difference between the First Half Year of 2014 and the First Half Year of 2015. This decline plus the slowing down of the AUM was the cause of the correction.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 04, 2015, 04:58:32 pm
The next set of results will be the Full Year ending 31 Sept. 2015. It shows that the market has almost overtaken the performance of the comparative period and there is still 5 months left. If there is no major upset then this is great for Coronation.
Note that I used the TOPI for these calculations but I have compared Index charts with different weightings of the major stocks such as Naspers and MTN and the pattern is very similar.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 05, 2015, 06:03:47 pm
Just as I thought. Traders climbed in with longs at the bottom and selling for short term profits. I will have to wait until the longs die out to see her carry on up.
Here is a bar chart of her Assets Under Management. Bear in mind that the last bar is Year to Date and the others are Full Year. We still have 5 months to go and it seems like there is no stopping the growth in AUM.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 05, 2015, 07:52:01 pm
I have often been asked why I don't switch from CML to PSG over the past year so I thought I would share my reasons.

As we all know, CML has no stable mates to make comparisons to. She is purely driven by her underlying share performance mostly on the JSE. This performance is obviously geared so in a good year for the JSE, she would outperform most stocks and vice versa. As the markets overall mostly go up bar the odd crash, so will CML with her gearing. Her gearing is dependent on the growth in Assets Under Management. This growth in AUM is almost ensured by her consistently winning the top awards in Plexcrowns and Raging Bull.

PSG has been doing extremely well of late but they have a different business model. They buy shares in a few companies but to the extent that it would border on hostile takeovers.
They own a third of Capitec, half of Curro and then large portions of Zeder and Pioneer Foods.

What frightens me is should Capitec's arch rival ABIL come back with a vengeance or Curro hit a bad spot, then PSG is doomed. This is my major reason. More on this later.
Take note that PSG's Equity portfolio had a 10% decline that is in line with Coronation's results for the year. Only PSG's huge investments in the above mentioned companies kept her upward momentum.

SARS needs investors to keep stocks for at least 3 years to qualify for Capital Gains Tax so I cannot afford to hold PSG for so long due to the gamble of possible losses in the holdings they have.
CML on the other hand is good for long term as she just follows the market trend albeit geared.


 

Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 06, 2015, 12:05:13 am
I have often been asked why I don't switch from CML to PSG over the past year so I thought I would share my reasons.

As we all know, CML has no stable mates to make comparisons to. She is purely driven by her underlying share performance mostly on the JSE. This performance is obviously geared so in a good year for the JSE, she would outperform most stocks and vice versa. As the markets overall mostly go up bar the odd crash, so will CML with her gearing. Her gearing is dependent on the growth in Assets Under Management. This growth in AUM is almost ensured by her consistently winning the top awards in Plexcrowns and Raging Bull.

PSG has been doing extremely well of late but they have a different business model. They buy shares in a few companies but to the extent that it would border on hostile takeovers.
They own a third of Capitec, half of Curro and then large portions of Zeder and Pioneer Foods.

What frightens me is should Capitec's arch rival ABIL come back with a vengeance or Curro hit a bad spot, then PSG is doomed. This is my major reason. More on this later.
Take note that PSG's Equity portfolio had a 10% decline that is in line with Coronation's results for the year. Only PSG's huge investments in the above mentioned companies kept her upward momentum.

SARS needs investors to keep stocks for at least 3 years to qualify for Capital Gains Tax so I cannot afford to hold PSG for so long due to the gamble of possible losses in the holdings they have.
CML on the other hand is good for long term as she just follows the market trend albeit geared.
Fully agree your arguments - presumably PSG are still skimming off rather ridiculous management fees. I held PSG for over 3 years but when Curro started their spending spree I sold out of PSG totally
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on May 19, 2015, 09:02:49 am
So, inter divi down from 275 to 246. I work Sep - end August so for me dividends where slightly up for the year. 528 vs 542 so up 2.6% - not exactly inflation - even using governments wildly optimistic metrics.

Will not sell my main holdings CML - but will probably get out in the small portfolio - shouldn't have been there in the first place. Will be interesting to see how the market reacts - not great results, but not that bad ether.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 19, 2015, 09:41:00 am
Not bad at all. Five months left to gain 2% for her to be on par with 2014 results.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: gcr on May 19, 2015, 10:27:43 am
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 19, 2015, 10:44:07 am
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(

Forget it. She will go up to R 90 today.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on May 19, 2015, 12:02:32 pm
I am a buyer at R 85 - come on CML drop a bit more please :'(

Forget it. She will go up to R 90 today.

Seems I missed that estimation. Up over R90.50 already. The guys with the thick glasses must have done some calculations today and are climbing in now. Plus all the divie hunters should keep her going.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 05, 2015, 11:08:50 pm
With the markets not doing well at all of late, I cannot see Coronation beating their FY results from the previous year. The ALSI made a mere 2% gain this year and still falling. Next results must surely be lower once again.

Perhaps the share price was propped up over the past 2 weeks with Coronation buying over a R150M of their own shares on market to add to their Trust fund for future bonuses for "job well done".
This purchase was also well timed for it to include the dividend as LDT was today.

I don't think the ex divie price of CML will recover soon. Perhaps in 2016.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 10, 2015, 12:53:17 am
What does CML know that we don't? The Coronation Trust fund bought 2 more tranches of their own shares and now totalling nearly R200M. This was pre divi so was it only for the dividends?
With the correction of late and perhaps ongoing, I cannot see a better performance of last year come next results.

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on June 10, 2015, 09:25:05 am
How do you think the dividends will go for the next year?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 10, 2015, 11:27:45 am
I doubt it will drop below 8000 as too much support at that level. She remains a good long term stock to hold onto just for the great dividend. So watching the price is not that important.
I could live comfortably for some months just on the dividend.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on June 17, 2015, 12:47:05 pm
I doubt it will drop below 8000 as too much support at that level. She remains a good long term stock to hold onto just for the great dividend. So watching the price is not that important.
I could live comfortably for some months just on the dividend.

Would you buy more for the dividend if you had some spare cash though?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 17, 2015, 01:35:20 pm
Actually not but only as I am already overweight with CML. I look at it this way. If the market does poorly then CML will follow suit as will most stocks anyway. Bad results in a bear market will drop her lower than the ALSI though but the divi makes up for that.

We have 3 months to go until her FY results and the ALSI has to gain 12% to equal her 2014 results according to my rough method. I cannot see this happening. Hopefully, she is pricing this in now.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 17, 2015, 06:57:15 pm
CML Bonus Pool Trust still continuing to buy shares in it's own company. Now totalling R250m. They must surely know something. That is a whack of a lot to pay out for management bonuses.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 25, 2015, 04:10:34 pm
Moneyweb stated yesterday that last year had a net Inflow of foreign cash into SA Managed Funds and this year it has a net Outflow.
CML's performance depends largely on foreign investments and this will surely hurt the stock price. As it is, the AUM had "plateaued"  last year already according to management.
For this reason, I sold all my CML shares.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 29, 2015, 08:00:10 pm
Over the past 7 years that I had been married to CML, I have often been accused of hyping the price up on jaDEB's "dark side" due to my persistence on what a great stock it was.  :LHST:
If so, Coronation should give me a "Golden Handshake" I think. Perhaps she tanked because I sold now.

Jokes aside. I have just found the next CML and have been researching it for some hours today.
She might have many similarities to CML on a smaller scale but is more diversified and exposed offshore.

Both depend largely on performance fees and AUM but CML more so. Both also had trading statements out at the same time for March end period and CML was due to weaker results and the other for better results. Reason being that this one is a Hedge Fund Manager and can make money in bear markets that CML cannot.

With a PE of 11x and a much lower AUM, she can only grow compared to CML that is saturated by now.

I noticed a very similar pattern with this one that CML had when she was a fledgling. CML never flinched at market downturns for years until now. She was immune to market corrections. With the recent market correction this one actually went up.Perhaps due to her being a Hedge Fund manager and a brokerage.

http://today.moneyweb.co.za/article?id=487734&acid=544awEI2280eZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&adid=4g7MXQEPLhseZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&date=2015-06-29#.VZD0ovlVikp





 


 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 29, 2015, 09:28:38 pm
I love momentum stocks and compare them to my Indi benchmark. Here is a 2 year comparison. With that low PE of 11x, she can only be a winner.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on June 29, 2015, 10:31:35 pm
Hi Orca, did you do any research on the company CEO, Directors?

Yes I did as that is very crucial when investing LT. Most are highly schooled and experienced in hedge Funds. Plus the fact that they are all ugly and have thick glasses makes me feel more secure. Not flamboyant like Arthur Brown.
http://www.peregrine.co.za/AboutTheGroup/BoardofDirectors
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on November 10, 2015, 07:50:40 am
Assets under management of R610 billion, up 3.7%

- Diluted headline earnings per share of 516.0 cents, down 9.7%

- Total dividend per share of 516.0 cents

Not a bad set of results - final divi of 270c - happy I did not sell, hopefully we will see a slight recovery on the cards.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 10, 2015, 01:19:24 pm
The selloff was overdone and she does look like a buy at these levels but I don't think she will shoot the lights out again.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on November 11, 2015, 04:19:39 pm
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/coronation-has-been-a-better-investment-than-its-unit-trusts/

So Moneyweb agree with me. Don't buy a unit trust, buy the company providing them. Over time they make more money out of your unit trust than you do!
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Fawkes85 on November 11, 2015, 05:26:25 pm
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/coronation-has-been-a-better-investment-than-its-unit-trusts/

So Moneyweb agree with me. Don't buy a unit trust, buy the company providing them. Over time they make more money out of your unit trust than you do!

Thought about that. But here is my worry. They make all their money from their fees. Especially from questionable fees like performance fees. This cannot last. Every day people are getting wiser to the rip off that is the fee systems of these companies. This can only lead to two things. One, people continue investing more money in ETFs and less in actively managed funds or, two, these companies will drastically have to decrease the fees they charge. Either way their bottom lines are going to be hit and they are going to be hit hard. So would you still go long on them?
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Patrick on November 11, 2015, 06:50:48 pm
I know, I've been out of there for some time now, but I still believe they'll outperform their own funds, especially with divvies included.

The evidence us resoundingly against actively managed funds, it's an industry set for a long slow decline.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: JDP on November 11, 2015, 07:33:47 pm
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/coronation-has-been-a-better-investment-than-its-unit-trusts/

So Moneyweb agree with me. Don't buy a unit trust, buy the company providing them. Over time they make more money out of your unit trust than you do!

Thought about that. But here is my worry. They make all their money from their fees. Especially from questionable fees like performance fees. This cannot last. Every day people are getting wiser to the rip off that is the fee systems of these companies. This can only lead to two things. One, people continue investing more money in ETFs and less in actively managed funds or, two, these companies will drastically have to decrease the fees they charge. Either way their bottom lines are going to be hit and they are going to be hit hard. So would you still go long on them?

This is why there will be a long slow decline, the amount of people taking control of there own money, in relation to those that are happy to hand it of to someone else in the "hope" that they will
be better at it than themselves, will for a very long time lean towards the latter. For no other reason than laziness and/or a "cannot be bothered" lifestyle.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 11, 2015, 11:01:22 pm
All my family and friends have UT's because they do not know how to invest directly on the JSE.
My Boet is with Allan Gray and I sure bet he is wondering how I managed to retire early and comfortably. This must have been a great surprise to him as he always thought I was a washout with no prospects for the future.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Fawkes85 on November 12, 2015, 07:11:38 am
I get what you all are saying but I think that is slowly changing. The younger generations are very nifty at using the internet and doing things themselves. I think people of my generation will take more control of their savings and investments compared with previous generations just simply because we have more tools available to us.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Mr_Dividend on November 12, 2015, 09:42:40 am
I get what you all are saying but I think that is slowly changing. The younger generations are very nifty at using the internet and doing things themselves. I think people of my generation will take more control of their savings and investments compared with previous generations just simply because we have more tools available to us.

Very few people actually save themselves - most rely on the companies retirement fund which generally make use of unit trusts/funds. Then people that do save themselves usually do so in an RA and the has to be sec 28 compliant. So there is very little left over for investing directly into ETF, that said, there is a swing towards them - but small compared to the overall picture.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Fawkes85 on November 17, 2015, 07:30:09 am
This from Moneyweb and it backs up what I have been saying:

"A second major factor in fund selection, in the US at least, is fees. There is clear evidence that investors are demanding, and increasingly getting, lower cost products.

“A recent report by Morningstar indicates that the asset-weighted expense ratios across all US funds have declined to 0.64% in 2014 compared with 0.76% in 2009,” the study notes. “Coinciding with this fee decline, the report finds that flows into passive investments far outstrip their active counterparts. Even within US active funds, Morningstar found that the funds in the cheapest quintile received approximately 95% of the estimated net new flows during that past decade.”

This is an astonishing finding – that just 20% of the actively-managed funds in the US saw 95% of new investments into such funds, and their common attribute is that their fees are below average. It’s even more compelling when one considers that Morningstar found that US equity funds with a higher than average net expense ratio experienced negative flows over the same period.

The study did note that this demand for lower cost is far more pronounced in the US than it is anywhere else, but that should not be taken as cause for relief by fund managers elsewhere. The US is at the forefront of the world’s mutual fund market and trends that take hold there almost inevitably spread across the globe."

So what conclusion can we get from this? The days of charging high fees on actively managed funds are done. That is why I won't invest in Coronation, Peregrine, Anchor, etc. Long term their prospects aren't looking good.

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Nivek on November 17, 2015, 07:50:41 am
So what conclusion can we get from this? The days of charging high fees on actively managed funds are done. That is why I won't invest in Coronation, Peregrine, Anchor, etc. Long term their prospects aren't looking good.
I'm with you on that one. As Buffet has said: “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” Can't do that with fund managers any more I'm afraid.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 17, 2015, 12:02:39 pm
@Fawkes85. You can remove Peregrine from your list. Income from performance fees is mainly from high net worth individuals and institutional investors that do not have the expertise in hedge funds or derivatives. Performance fees constitute a small part of their earnings.
Peregrine houses one of South Africa’s leading derivatives, equity and prime broking operations through Peregrine Securities.
Broking and structuring business Peregrine Securities benefited from increased trading volumes in its specialist areas of prime broking and derivative broking and structuring.
 
Title: Re: CML
Post by: jaDEB on November 30, 2015, 03:21:07 pm
 :-X

Who would have thought?

Orca your input please.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: Orca on November 30, 2015, 03:52:27 pm
HEPS down 9,7% compared to previous reporting period and ex divi today. This is not too bad considering the market turmoil. I expected worse and the price to drop to the mid 50's so my personal feeling is that it is oversold at this point.

She was carried up over the years by momentum investors going in for the ride but they have abandoned ship so don't expect her to shoot the lights out soon. I sold at around 8700.
Title: Re: CML
Post by: JohnnyH on December 08, 2015, 02:26:41 pm
I see CML is still trending downwards. I bought a few a few months ago at ~R72, so the long term (10+ years) appeal looks even better now if I add a few more.

Maybe I should wait for ~52 :)

Title: Re: CML
Post by: Fawkes85 on December 08, 2015, 02:43:02 pm
I see CML is still trending downwards. I bought a few a few months ago at ~R72, so the long term (10+ years) appeal looks even better now if I add a few more.

Maybe I should wait for ~52 :)



I wouldn't if I were you. ETFs are gonna kill companies like CML.