Author Topic: Long Term Portfolios.  (Read 29720 times)

JDP

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Long Term Portfolios.
« on: October 28, 2014, 01:59:31 pm »
There was an old thread, dealing with this dating back to 2013, decided to make a new one.

Currently my Portfolio (Beginner / Not even novice)

STXIND    33.3%
STXFIn     33.3%
DBX USA  33.3%


Hoping to add some blue chips in the next 6 months.

Not much of a gambler, don't have the stomach for it, so mostly go for stable, also still have some time left, retirement only in about 25y.

Post yours and comment on mine if you like. :TU:

gcr

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2014, 03:58:41 pm »
There was an old thread, dealing with this dating back to 2013, decided to make a new one.

Currently my Portfolio (Beginner / Not even novice)

STXIND    33.3%
STXFIn     33.3%
DBX USA  33.3%


Hoping to add some blue chips in the next 6 months.

Not much of a gambler, don't have the stomach for it, so mostly go for stable, also still have some time left, retirement only in about 25y.

Post yours and comment on mine if you like. :TU:
Not sure of your motivation for starting this thread is to get an inkling into what other people have in their portfolios. You may also find that many who have listed their portfolios in 2013 may still be holding a very similar portfolio as to remain classified by SARS as an investor you need to hold your position for 3 years at least.
Also objectives of investors on this forum may have different objectives as to why they are investing and then there are others who are quite happy to speculate on the market as traders
You don't mention how much you have invested in each of the ETF - so given that you retire in about 25 years time is it an objective that these investments are your pension or are they funds to augment your pension.
Maybe you need to re examine your present pension funding, determine if there is any scope to increase contributions (if required) and consider the fee structure, also if the company you work for has its own managed fund it could well be cheaper than an external pension fund. Ideally you want to retire on at least 70% to 80% of your last salary which would (based on current financial calculations) require that you contribute 22% of gross to your pension fund
Just some of my thoughts on your post 
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

JDP

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2014, 04:59:46 pm »
Well yes indeed, my motivation was basically to get a inkling as what people have in there LT portfolios, and if they indeed changed or have added to them in terms of last year.

Basically my split into these ETF's is around 20k each, and they are to augment my pension, and i will be adding to them going forward, but i'm also looking at blue chips.

Current pension funding consists of the following

AG Balance Fund
AG Provident Preservation Fund (Basically another AG Balance Fund)
Investec Value Fund
Nedgroup Global Feeder Fund.

+

Small Stanlib Fund and a small Metropolitan RA.

Indeed that is my aim to get to the 22% of gross.

Thanks for your comments.

Orca

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2014, 10:53:23 pm »
In my view, those are poor performing funds for long term. If you actively invest in funds that are relatively immune to market downturns such as non cyclical stocks that I will mention bellow.
The STX40 has only averaged 7% pa since 2008. That is in my mind a poor performance compared to the the stocks that are immune to corrections. On long term, you will exceed 36% pa that these stocks have been achieving for years.
EOH
NPN
SHP
TRU

This is not advice to you but my own advice to me. Pity I never listened.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2014, 10:58:12 pm »
Sorry, I must add that those figures are divides included.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

jaDEB

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2014, 08:29:54 am »
In my view, those are poor performing funds for long term. If you actively invest in funds that are relatively immune to market downturns such as non cyclical stocks that I will mention bellow.
The STX40 has only averaged 7% pa since 2008. That is in my mind a poor performance compared to the the stocks that are immune to corrections. On long term, you will exceed 36% pa that these stocks have been achieving for years.
EOH
NPN
SHP
TRU

This is not advice to you but my own advice to me. Pity I never listened.

There are a few people from the Darkside, including me, that should have listened to you years ago.
jaDEB

Trust me, you get what you give - 2019

XXXXX

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2014, 04:50:08 pm »
In my view, those are poor performing funds for long term. If you actively invest in funds that are relatively immune to market downturns such as non cyclical stocks that I will mention bellow.
The STX40 has only averaged 7% pa since 2008. That is in my mind a poor performance compared to the the stocks that are immune to corrections. On long term, you will exceed 36% pa that these stocks have been achieving for years.
EOH
NPN
SHP
TRU

This is not advice to you but my own advice to me. Pity I never listened.

Some returns (excluding dividends) to compare.  Note that return indicated is not the annualised return, but the total return for the period.
STX40
1 year - 9.41%
3 Year - 52.95%
5 Year - 87.62%
10 Year - 322.18%

SHP
1 Year - Minus 13.07%
3 Year - 37.37%
5 Year - 149.66%
10 Year - 1276.23%

EOH
1 year - 32.37%
3 Year - 374.10%
5 Year - 1138.43%
10 Year - 2769.87%

TRU
1 Year - Minus 21.35%
3 Year - Minus 5.86
5 Year - 67.78%
10 Year - 439.67

NPN
1 Year - 46.16%
3 Year - 261.23%
5 Year - 382.56%
10 Year - 2342.42%

REM
1 Year - 23.77%
3 Year - 109.94%
5 Year - 174.98%
10 Year - 736.02%

I have included my favourate "buy and forget" share (Remgro) for interests sake.  Not as the returns indicated exluded dividends and the unbundlings, Remgro's return will be understated.

I do find it interesting, that of the 4 shares listed by Orca's, only 2 outperformed the STX40 over a 1 year horizon.  The other had negative returns....

Over the longer periods, the outperformance on the selected shares are highlighted.....  Questions  to be asked by any investor (in particular any casual investor).

1.  Can these long term returns be replicated into the future, and if so, for how long.  Certainly mathematically, they would eventually return to the market mean.   In the case of SHP and TRU, the negative returns over the short term are worrying and may be indicative of this effect. 
2.  Can an individual investor afford the volatility of individual shares.  Or does he need a safety net of  "buying the market"?  This will differ from person to person depending on his level of knowledge and aptitude to risk.

My take on the 4 shares listed (NPN, SHP, EOH and TRU), is that they will NOT come close to a 36% per annum return (over the long term).  I think that there are opportunities in SHP.  I'm not confident in TRU and NPN (although NPN offshore investments are certainly interesting).  EOH, i'm not familiar enough with the fundamentals to comment on.

Key to material outperformance over the market, it to find the next winner, not the last winner.  That's not an easy task.....

Matter of interest, my personal SA portfolio is as follows
CLI
MPC
REM
JSE
SOL

With smaller holdings in
CML
CPI
ILA
PNC

Some of the positions were taken with a specific view and have served there purpose.  Overall, my portfolio is in need of re-balancing, but i tend to do that in January/February (when i have a better view on my tax position).  Return over the last 10 years returns hasn't been too shabby, showing a annualised growth (including dividends) of 23.6%.   







« Last Edit: November 01, 2014, 05:41:28 pm by XXXXX »

JDP

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2014, 02:06:42 pm »
Thanks for the responses, there is a lot to investigate and digest in order to invest.  :TU:

erwintwr

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2014, 12:17:08 pm »
Sorry, I must add that those figures are divides included.

Orca/Guys. Is there  any source to a calculator that could provide stats for shares where Divies was included in the performance?

since that will be the idea of a long term investment, it could make a huge difference in the returns obtained.

thx

JDP

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2015, 10:09:46 am »
Update on investment changes, as a FYI to myself, but any comments welcome.

ShareCode% of Equities
ASPENAPN8.10%
RICHEMONTCFR5.55%
CAPITECCPI5.83%
DBX USADBXUS5.56%
DBX WORLDDBXWD5.17%
METAIRMTA4.46%
MTN GROUPMTN5.25%
NASPERS-N-NPN6.31%
OLDMUTUAL   OML4.91%
PROPXTENPTXTEN5.20%
SHOPRITSHP5.36%
SASOLSOL14.81%
SATRIX FINI   STXFIN5.43%
SATRIX INDISTXIND5.36%

SOL high at the moment, been buying on the down will even out in future.

Funds:

Down scaled my monthly DO, to these fund, rather accumulate and then buy equities or ETF's.

AG Balance Fund - moved 50% over to Equities
AG Provident Preservation Fund - cant touch this otherwise I would have moved it to Equities as well due to tax   :(
Investec Value Fund - Closed, under performing and going down fast, lost some money in this one, and not just because of fees.
Nedgroup Global Feeder Fund. - Added some money to this, like the foreign exposure, and dont really have other means of foreign exposure besides DBX ETF,
                                                        Web trader fees seems HIGH, maybe in future.
Stanlib RA - mmm ye ?? what to do ??
Metropolitan RA. - mmm ye ?? what to do ??

jaDEB

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2015, 11:15:41 am »
I like your spread, well done.

AG Provident Preservation Fund - cant touch this otherwise I would have moved it to Equities as well due to tax   :(

I have my paperwork lying next to me on my desk, I have a Provident fund (Note I also have my pension which I will not touch) that I want to cash up, pay my tax and add to my Portfolio in the market, just need to find my set of bigger [email protected] and do it.

jaDEB

Trust me, you get what you give - 2019

Orca

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2015, 04:23:49 pm »
Perhaps its time to look at which IND stocks will benefit from the oil price. Industrials have had a beating lately after years of great performance and should revive now. KAP comes to mind. MTA with the acquisition of Mutlu will be earning dollars.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

JDP

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2015, 05:34:48 pm »
I like MTA, and as soon as I have some more money available I will be topping up, bring my avg share price down, and as mention, holding in terms of the Mutlu, all the upside from it.

KAP is on one of my watch lists, also seen that in december a lot of purchases from directors, and they could definitely benefit from the oil price, in all divisions, namely supply chain, timber, passenger
and manufacturing.
My only concern is that they are only SA operated, specifically thinking of ESKOM and labour?

I also like ASO (AUSTRO), they have some very good names there directorate and sole distribution rights of well known brands, and they also have
both sale and hire of diesel gennies, tying into the ESKOM issue. I also recently saw the following sense, which was pretty impressive to me

Quote
n terms of the acquisition agreement, the purchase consideration payable by Austro for the Centlube acquisition
would be R64 million, provided that if Centlube Holdings Proprietary Limited or its wholly owned subsidiary,
Centlube Proprietary Limited (“Centlube”) is appointed as the licensee and/or distributor for a certain global oil major
and significant player in the lubricants industry on or before 31 December 2015, the purchase consideration would be
increased by R16 million (the “additional payment”) to R80 million.

Shareholders are advised that, with effect from 1 January 2015, Centlube has been appointed by ExxonMobil
Petroleum and Chemical BVBA as a distributor of Mobil lubricants for its Automotive and Industrial line of business
in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland as well as in respect of certain Strategic Global Accounts in selected Sub-
Saharan African countries
. Centlube will also continue as a licensee and distributor of ENI lubricants and produce
steel rolling fluids on behalf of Houghton plc.

BussoV6

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2015, 03:09:33 pm »

Currently my Portfolio (Beginner / Not even novice)

STXIND    33.3%
STXFIn     33.3%
DBX USA  33.3%


Hoping to add some blue chips in the next 6 months.



How closely do these DB ETFs actually track their respective indices?

JDP

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Re: Long Term Portfolios.
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2015, 03:37:29 pm »
Not sure, but have a look at this link for more information.

www.dbxtrackers.co.za