Author Topic: ALSI TRADING  (Read 33592 times)

DontPanic

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ALSI TRADING
« on: July 13, 2018, 12:47:29 pm »
Hey guys

This is my attempt to hold myself accountable to not only myself but on a public forum- to stick to the strategy come thick or thin- and not second guess it especially in the middle of active trades. I will freely post my trades for all to see. If it helps anyone else that's just great.
A bit of background: I used to trade the "beast" making excellent money, but along came the market crash of 2008 I think it was and not only did I lose a small fortune on Metorex and Merafe but also took a massive hit on my trading confidence on trading the ALSI- although the strategy was as sound then as it is now- just my trading "mind" was damaged.
So about two month's ago I started a new account at IG Markets- deposited a smallish amount- and have increased the balance by about 42%. However, I find myself messing up things by second guessing trades- trying to "know" why things are happening. This runs contra to what is supposed to be my trading philosophy...The LESS I know about the markets the better. This is a semi-mechanical strategy based on the assumption that the market will statistically keep on doing what it has done in the past. I'll elaborate on the strat in due course- but it is based on EMAs crossover on two timeframes 1 hour and 5 minutes- constantly alternating long and short on each- so much of the time the positions are hedged.
Let the fun begin  ;)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 09:07:10 pm by DontPanic »

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2018, 12:58:19 pm »
This is the 1 hour strat.
EMAs are 23-38-81. I don't use IG for this because I don't want after hours  (speculative) trading messing up the charts!

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 01:08:35 pm »
This is the 5 minute strat.

The EMAs are again 23-38-81
I use IG markets for this as it affords the opportunity to trade after hours (hedging the 1 hour strat whe.re necessary)

Nivek

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2018, 01:14:14 pm »
I love these. Hope you keep it going through good and bad.

*Fetches the popcorn*

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2018, 01:21:04 pm »
Thanks Nivek

I believe the strategy works...its just that little issue of the mind !!  :-X

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2018, 09:48:23 am »
The ALSI is living up to it's nickname of "The Beast" currently, and takes much conviction in the strategy.
The 1 hour remains short with the 5 min about to go long

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2018, 10:08:03 am »
OK so the 5 min (23-38-81) have all crossed up. So long position taken- although it's difficult to fight the feeling that the market wants to go down.
The 1 hour strat is still short

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2018, 10:31:59 am »
Okay it's time to write down the rules/ observations- to be added to as time goes by- and theoretically they shouldn't be made or changed in the middle of active trades!! (very easy to do when second guessing yourself). ;)

1. The hourly strat (23-38-81) is the main one. When the EMAs cross they do it for a reason. Don't question why just reverse the position and go with it. If Trump has opened his mouth about something, or SA's financially doomed or whatever it will usually always be reflected in an EMA crossover (up or down). No need to know why...just trade !

2. The 5 minute strat (23-38-81) is like a tug boat, fine tuning the hourly strat. It obviously moves quicker and is there to almost protect the 1 hour strat (hedging where necessary).

3. Both the 1 hour and 5 min strategies will make money independent of each other in their respective time zones. Think of them as separate from each other.

4. Always fight the urge to be "right" (this is a work in progress !!). This strategy works best if you "Know" as little as possible about the markets. Trade it mathematically. It's a numbers and probability strategy. End of story.

5.Take each and every trade/ edge without fail- especially after a failed trade !!

6. Each trading day look at the charts of both strategies and make sure my positions correspond with the price action relative to the moving averages. In other words, based on the picture at any given time, would you rather be long or short, and make sure the positions are aligned to this. (this sounds obvious but anyone who trades will know the feeling of being on the wrong side of the market and staring in disbelief as the market runs away further from you).

7. The market gives and takes away just as quickly. When the market moves in my favour, be quick to take some money off the table. Experience has shown that more often than not the market will retrace somewhat -turning a great trade into an average one.

8. Always use a stop-loss. Not negotiable!-  (IG Markets is good in this regard because their OTC platform means you can't be hit by stop-loss hunters as the Stop-Loss order sits on their server and not in the open market....).

9. Carefully consider holding positions over the weekend or at least closing half

10. Re-read the rules constantly !! ;) ;) ;)
« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 10:41:09 am by DontPanic »

Patrick

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2018, 10:37:39 am »
Mind if I ask how much money you'll be putting on the line?

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2018, 10:47:10 am »
Hi Patrick

No problem. 2 contracts @R2 each on the 1 hour strat (a total of R4/pip) and either 1 or 2 contracts on the 5 minute strat depending on my conviction on the actual trade.
The idea is to do this time and time again, build up the trading capital, while regaining trading confidence, and gradually increase the contracts over time.

IndustryGuy

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2018, 04:54:09 pm »
Why heikin ashis on the one but not the other if you do not mind me asking?

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2018, 05:09:16 pm »
No problem

Only because I can't find Heiken Ashies on the IG basic platform.

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2018, 05:12:21 pm »
Have closed position on 1 hour and waiting to go long
The 5 min is still long

Bevan

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2018, 09:27:20 pm »
My only thought on this is that it's damn close to scalping, considering your timeperiods. In my view that's best done by an algo / bot that watches the market every second. That's not a life, for a human at least, because at some point you need to eat, sleep etc. Also, you mention a stop loss but you are going to be in and out of trades very quickly based on your time periods. Can you get through the spread and take enough profit on your winning trades (50%), to beat out your losing trades (50%) with your stop loss? Do you adjust your stops and take profit levels with changing vol levels? If you say that you can do better than 50% wins over time then I lose interest right away because that's simply not possible, unless you're trading positive gamma which you need to pay a premium for. I will not trade on less than a monthly, weekly and daily chart all throwing the same signal, although I use a 30min and 5min chart to get my timing right.
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Bevan

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2018, 09:36:50 pm »
OK so the 5 min (23-38-81) have all crossed up. So long position taken- although it's difficult to fight the feeling that the market wants to go down.
The 1 hour strat is still short

Are you using IG's ability to force two positions to be open at the same time and not net-off? To me it looks like you simply reduced your short of 2 contracts by stopping out of 1.5 contracts, so still net short 0.5 contracts, not long? Your later post around 5:12pm shows you still short but now only 0.25 contracts, amidst a steadily rising market. Little confused here and not sure of the intention?
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 09:39:23 pm by Bevan »
Audi, vide, tace, si vis vivere in pace. Pax vobiscum.
Happiness belongs to the self-sufficient - https://www.thrivecentre.co.za