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Shares / AMS
« Last post by Patrick on July 26, 2024, 11:00:02 pm »
AMS 975.00 cents - LDT: 20 Aug 2024
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Shares / Re: NordFX broker: News, Weekly Analytics
« Last post by Stan NordFX on July 24, 2024, 04:10:30 pm »
CryptoNews of the Week


– The rise in cryptocurrency prices is likely to be tactical and is not expected to mark the beginning of a prolonged upward trend, according to JPMorgan. The bank's experts noted that the current price of bitcoin significantly exceeds its mining cost ($43,000) and, compared to gold, appears overvalued relative to the "fair" price adjusted for volatility ($53,000). A significant upward deviation of prices from this latter parameter "limits the potential for long-term growth."
Analysts forecasted positive market dynamics in August, owing to the reduced impact of the sale of coins confiscated by German police and the distribution of coins among clients of Gemini and Mt.Gox. In this case, the price of bitcoin is expected to align with the trend in gold futures, where a recent rise has been observed. Experts also noted that both assets would benefit in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

– Bloomberg also reports that bitcoin miners and crypto companies, previously hindered from going public in the U.S., would benefit from a second term of Donald Trump’s presidency. The agency cites Christian Catalini, founder of the Cryptoeconomics Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who stated, "Almost everyone in America would benefit if they chose to operate under the new rules once implemented."
In June, Trump met with miners, stating that bitcoin mining should become the "last line of defense against CBDCs." He added that he wants all remaining bitcoin to be "made in the USA."
Following Joe Biden's poor performance in the debates and a failed assassination attempt on Trump, the price of bitcoin rose by 10%, and shares of the two largest public miners, Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms, increased by 30%. Cipher Mining’s shares surged by nearly 50%. For the first time since the crypto market crash in 2022, industry companies are planning initial public offerings. USDC stablecoin issuer Circle filed for an IPO in January with a valuation of $33 billion. Crypto miner Northern Data, which is actively developing AI computing capabilities, is considering a U.S. listing, with a potential valuation of $16 billion. Kraken, the country's second-largest exchange, is also preparing for a stock market listing.

– U.S. President Joe Biden shocked the markets on Sunday, 22 July, when he announced his withdrawal from the presidential race. Some analysts suggested that this move could benefit bitcoin and other crypto assets, while others warned that investors should temper their excitement.
Analyst Josh Gilbert stated that Trump's increased chances of re-election represent "a huge boost for the asset class": "The longer we see Trump leading in the election odds, the more crypto assets will be worth following his victory." Gilbert explained, "It is hard to imagine Kamala Harris or another Democratic candidate overthrowing Trump's lead in the polls just three months before the end of this electoral race," but added, "a lot can happen during this period, so nothing can be ruled out."
Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, shares a similar view. He warned his 433,000 followers on X that a Trump presidency victory is still far from certain. "Those who think that Trump/Vance will secure a decisive victory are getting ahead of themselves," Black wrote.

– Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, suggested that the crypto-friendly Donald Trump might announce at the upcoming Bitcoin-2024 conference that he will make bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. government. Currently, the government holds only 212,800 BTC, worth approximately $15 billion, whereas its gold reserves are around $600 billion. If the government were to double its bitcoin holdings, this would be "almost equivalent" to the price impact of the net inflow into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the beginning of the year.

– U.S. Senator and Republican Party member Cynthia Lummis highlighted that during a recent major system outage at Microsoft, caused by a software update error from CrowdStrike, the bitcoin network remained unaffected, while other industries experienced complete chaos. The bitcoin blockchain and associated cryptocurrency services continued to operate without disruptions. The senator quoted the Latin phrase "Vires in Numeris," meaning "strength in numbers," underscoring that the primary cryptocurrency's network employs complex mathematical algorithms to ensure security and stable operation even in unpredictable technical circumstances.
Senator Lummis recently proposed backing the U.S. dollar with bitcoin to improve the country's financial system. She also voiced opposition to the introduction of a digital dollar, fearing it could compromise citizens' privacy..

– Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, warned that voters supporting cryptocurrencies may lose their influence on politicians after the presidential elections in November 2024. He suggested that if a regulatory framework for digital assets is not established before the elections, the newly elected president and their administration are likely to shift focus to other pressing issues. Geopolitics may overshadow discussions about cryptocurrencies, with the president's attention potentially diverted to international conflicts, particularly those involving Iran and Russia.
"The capital required to support laws aimed at developing cryptocurrencies may be redirected to addressing more urgent foreign policy issues. Therefore, regulatory clarity must be achieved now, before the political landscape changes after the elections," Hayes stated.

– At the beginning of the year, Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, predicted a rapid rise in bitcoin to $60,000, which proved accurate. He now believes that the demand for the leading cryptocurrency will continue to grow, and its price could reach $100,000 by the end of the year. "Bitcoin is likely the best asset for growth potential by the end of the year," writes the financier. "It is currently priced at $65,000, but many expect it to hit $100,000 by year-end. Is this possible? Certainly, because the number of bitcoins is limited. If demand for BTC increases, the price will go up. Bitcoin is not the same as the U.S. dollar, where the Federal Reserve can simply print more." Green also noted that the possible election of Donald Trump as President of the United States could further benefit bitcoin.

– Analyst and trader RLinda identifies the bullish flag pattern as a key indicator of a potential upward movement for bitcoin. This pattern, observable on both daily and weekly charts, is characterised by a sharp upward movement followed by a consolidation phase. RLinda expects that a breakout from this consolidation could continue the previous uptrend, with a potential target around $90,000.
Support and resistance levels are crucial in this analysis. The key support levels at $59,300 and $63,800 have shown strong buying interest and stability. High trading volumes at these levels reinforce expectations that they will hold during any potential pullbacks.
Critical resistance levels are marked at $67,250 and $71,754. Overcoming these resistance points is necessary for BTC to advance towards higher targets. The all-time high (ATH) at $73,743 is particularly significant, with a successful breakout potentially triggering further bullish momentum.

– Peter Brandt, head of Factor LLC, expressed skepticism that the price of bitcoin will exceed $71,000 and set a new record. He stated, "I try to be as honest as possible when identifying patterns. The current stagnation in the bitcoin market is incorrectly labeled as a flag (it has lasted too long); it actually represents a descending channel. Anything that lasts longer than 4-6 weeks is not a flag," wrote Brandt.
The flag pattern, which some analysts believe has emerged on the BTC/USD chart, is typically a precursor to a bullish rally. However, the descending channel mentioned by the veteran trader suggests a price decline. This pattern is characterised by lower highs and lows, which have been established since bitcoin reached its all-time high in March.
Based on the chart Brandt published, he believes that bitcoin's price will not surpass the resistance line around $71,000. If this scenario plays out, a bearish trend may ensue, potentially driving the price of the digital asset down to $51,000. The descending channel is slightly widening, indicating that price volatility is expected to increase over time.

– Analysts from the cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute predict that Ethereum could rise to a maximum of $4,300 in 2024. They believe that demand for this altcoin will be lower than expected, estimating that investment in these derivatives will range between $3.2 billion and $4.0 billion in the first 12 months following the start of trading. Under this scenario, the ETH price could increase by a maximum of 24% during 2024, reaching approximately $4,300.
In contrast, researchers at ASXN have made a more optimistic forecast. They predict that monthly capital inflows into Ethereum ETFs will range from $800 million to $1.2 billion. This suggests that by the end of the year, at least $6-7 billion will be invested in ETH-based exchange-traded funds, significantly exceeding the figures provided by Wintermute's analysts.

– The pace of Ethereum's potential bull rally will heavily depend on the capital inflow into ETH-ETFs shortly after trading begins. However, the launch of these products has not yet generated significant excitement in the cryptocurrency market, with investors responding cautiously to the event. Experts from QCP Capital reminded that after the launch of similar BTC-ETFs, bitcoin's price initially dropped to $38,000, but then hit historical highs two months later. (Although, it should be noted that the BTC halving may have played a significant role at that time.)
Currently, the options market suggests a potential decline in Ethereum's price in the near term. This expectation is reinforced by news of pressure from the U.S. government and the situation surrounding Mt.Gox. These factors add uncertainty and create additional challenges for ETH's growth. "As a result, ETH's price may remain stagnant or even decline until a new catalyst emerges," QCP Capital analysts suggest.
Experts also caution against underestimating the impact of political factors. As the U.S. elections approach, cryptocurrency market volatility may increase. Statements and actions by key political figures can create new opportunities or threats. Therefore, investors should be prepared for price swings and closely monitor news developments.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
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Shares / Re: NordFX broker: News, Weekly Analytics
« Last post by Stan NordFX on July 21, 2024, 10:54:38 am »
USD/JPY: Bank of Japan – Are Surprises Expected on 31 July?

According to strategists from ING, USD/JPY "delivered a bundle of surprises this week, retreating to the 155/156 area." Frankly, the surprise for us was not the yen's strengthening, but these words from ING experts. After all, what's so surprising about it? In our reviews, we have repeatedly warned about possible currency interventions by Japan's financial authorities. And here they are.

Economists estimate that on Thursday and Friday, 11 and 12 July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) purchased about 6.0 trillion yen to support the national currency. On Wednesday, 17 July, USD/JPY came under pressure again, likely due to another currency intervention. Analysing the BoJ's account movements, economists believe that the intervention on that day amounted to around 3.5 trillion yen. Whether this will have a lasting effect is a big question. Recent years' experience with similar actions shows that the effect is only short-term. This time, specialists from Germany's Commerzbank called the BoJ's interventions "spitting against the wind." Just two days later, on 19 July, after bouncing off a local low of 155.35, the pair surged to 157.85, jumping by 250 points.

"Aside from the disappointing business activity index in the services sector," analysts at Commerzbank observe, "which showed a reduction in activity in May, the foreign trade data was also unconvincing. One of the reasons for this was the weakening of imports, which does not bode well for the domestic economy."

"Bank of Japan must continue to hope that the unfavourable factor related to US interest rates will significantly weaken in the coming months, allowing the yen to stabilize without the need for constant defensive measures," the economists at Commerzbank conclude, likely referring to regular currency interventions as the "defensive measures."

In Tokyo, calls are growing louder that a weak yen has long outlived its usefulness. Investors trading short yen in carry trade strategies also have to contend with unwelcome currency interventions. Moreover, while the Bank of Japan's resources to support the yen are substantial, they are not unlimited. With this in mind, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last month that the regulator might raise interest rates at the meeting on 31 July. Additionally, the Japanese currency received unexpected support from US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who stated in an interview with Bloomberg that an undervalued yen exerts negative pressure on the US manufacturing sector.

On 31 July, both the Fed and the BoJ will hold meetings. If the actions or accompanying comments from the Bank of Japan are more hawkish, it could provide a new driver for USD/JPY to decline. For instance, ING does not rule out the possibility that the pair could reach 153.00 by the end of the year.

The pair ended the past week at 157.45. Evaluating the near-term prospects, 40% of experts voted for the pair moving south and the yen strengthening, while the remaining 60% took a neutral stance. Among oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% are in favour of the Japanese currency, although 15% are in the oversold zone for the pair. The trend indicators present a more mixed picture: 60% point to the yen's strengthening, while 40% suggest an upward rebound.

The nearest support level is located around 155.35-155.70, followed by 154.50-154.70, 153.60, 153.00, 151.85-152.15, and 150.80-151.00. The nearest resistance is in the 158.25 zone, followed by 158.75, 160.20, 160.85, 161.80-162.00, and 162.50.

In the upcoming week, Friday, 26 July, stands out on the calendar. On this day, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. No other significant macroeconomic statistics related to the state of the Japanese economy are scheduled for release in the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Surprise – Market Capitalisation Increases by $370 Billion in a Week

This week, bitcoin surged above $65,000, reaching a high of $67,490. This is the level it traded at on 17 June. Subsequently, the German government began liquidating crypto holdings confiscated by its police, causing BTC/USD to plummet. Over the past few days, Germany sold 50,000 BTC for approximately $3 billion, with the latest tranche of 3,846 BTC sold on 12 July.

Now, the market has digested the negative impact of this sell-off. The price of BTC is recovering amidst renewed capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. According to Coinshares, from 8 to 14 July, about $1.7 billion flowed into all cryptocurrency investment products, including US spot ETFs. Of this, $260 million went to BlackRock's IBIT fund. Since the beginning of 2024, funds have received $17.8 billion, surpassing the total for 2021, which was the peak year for the previous crypto bull cycle. Not only American but also Hong Kong bitcoin ETFs are seeing inflows, attracting a record $37 million on 15 July alone.

Evaluating the inflow into spot ETFs, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink declared on CNBC that bitcoin is a legitimate financial instrument suitable for investment during times of heightened fear. Fink admitted that he "was a proud skeptic, but I’ve studied [bitcoin], and learned about it," and now acknowledges that he was wrong about the asset in the past.

The head of BlackRock emphasized that the first cryptocurrency offers an opportunity to invest "in something that is outside of any country’s control." He noted, "I’m not saying that there aren’t abuses, like in anything else, but it’s a legitimate financial instrument that can potentially provide non-correlated, unconnected types of returns."

The next phase following the sale of 50,000 German BTC will be the return of 142,000 BTC to former clients of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which collapsed 10 years ago. Concerns arise from the fact that bitcoin has increased in value 130-fold during this time, and naturally, many recipients may want to convert their tokens to fiat immediately. However, not all Mt. Gox coins will be distributed to creditors in July. According to Arkham Intelligence, the first tranche of 45,000 BTC will be distributed to creditors through the Kraken exchange in the next one to two weeks. Overall, the pressure from Mt. Gox sales is not expected to exceed 75,000 coins by the end of the year.

Thanks to this information, panic among market participants has subsided. However, some analysts still believe that these payouts could push bitcoin's price down to $50,000. CoinShares predicts that if all 45,000 BTC are sold within 24 hours, the price could drop by 19% from current levels. Well-known analyst Alex Krüger estimates that the maximum price drop will not exceed 10%.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues that fears about seller pressure are overestimated and will not disrupt the ongoing bull rally. He suggests that if the same volume is released over 30 days, the market will hardly notice it. Analysts at CoinMetrics also believe that the market should "absorb" the Mt. Gox creditors liquidating their assets if the sales are spread out over time, taking into account the current market depth and trading volumes.

At present, it is difficult to predict how aggressively former Mt. Gox clients will dispose of their unexpected digital windfall. However, most influencers agree that even if there is a negative effect, it will be short-lived. Katie Stockton, managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, confirmed in a CNBC interview that the long-term upward trend remains intact, and that bitcoin should be viewed as a long-term investment with significant growth potential.

Michael Saylor, co-founder and former CEO of MicroStrategy, stated that a decline in the value of the first cryptocurrency will not affect its attractiveness to investors. As evidence, he presented a table comparing the price dynamics of various asset classes over several years, including bitcoin, gold, emerging market stocks, emerging market bonds, and treasury bonds. The best performers were bitcoin, young company stocks (U.S. Growth index), and the Nasdaq 100 index. From 2011 to 2024, bitcoin's value increased by 18,881%, while the Nasdaq 100 index grew by 931% and gold by 59%. Michael Saylor has previously predicted that bitcoin could reach $10 million in the future.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen also conducted a historical analysis. He examined the key parameter for investors: bitcoin's dominance level (percentage of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies). Cowen notes a significant trend: since the end of 2022, the dominance of the flagship cryptocurrency has been steadily increasing. From 38% in late November 2022, it rose to 54% by July 2024. Cowen believes that stricter government control over spending in the U.S. favours bitcoin compared to riskier altcoins. While potential approval of an ETH-ETF might provide Ethereum with short-term growth, bitcoin will continue to increase its share of the overall crypto market capitalization, potentially reaching 60% by December 2024.

The highly anticipated launch of spot Ethereum ETFs is undoubtedly expected to be a significant event for the industry. Bloomberg's senior exchange analyst Eric Balchunas reported that these trades will begin in the US on 23 July. "The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) finally approached issuers on Wednesday [17 July], requesting them to return final [forms] S-1 and then request effectiveness [approval] for a Tuesday, 23 July launch," the expert wrote. He did caution, however, that this is contingent upon the absence of any "last-minute unforeseen issues." Balchunas' information was confirmed by sources at two potential issuers of the ETH-ETFs.

Peter Brandt, head of Factor LLC, has provided a forecast for Ethereum ahead of the launch of ETH-ETF trading. Previously, this legendary trader and analyst, known for accurately predicting the crypto winter of 2018 and many other market movements, has often criticized ETH. However, now he believes this altcoin is on the brink of significant growth. Brandt suggests that Ethereum has found support near the lower boundary of a rectangle formation, which took over four months to develop, and its next target will be levels above $5,600.

This positive outlook is supported by the trader known as Yoddha. He noted that the prolonged consolidation could provide the main altcoin with the strength needed for active growth. According to his calculations, Ethereum has the potential to move to levels above $10,000. Yoddha believes the peak growth for Ethereum will be recorded in 2025. As for the current all-time high (ATH), it was recorded on 7 November 2021, at $4,856.

Despite Ethereum's prospects, the leader in growth over the past few days has been Ripple (XRP). From 5 to 17 July, the coin saw an increase of approximately 47%. The catalyst for this surge was the traditional derivatives trading centers – CME and CF Benchmarks – announcing indices and reference rates for Ripple, which could facilitate institutional acceptance of this token.

In such a situation, the decision of OpenAI's ChatGPT-4o artificial intelligence, which was tasked with selecting three digital assets worth buying in 2024 for long-term investment, was surprising. The AI was guided by key factors such as "price dynamics over time, technological innovations, market adoption, and potential for future growth." Based on these criteria, ChatGPT created a relatively conservative long-term portfolio that included Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and not Ripple, but Polkadot (DOT).

According to the AI, Bitcoin is a worthy candidate due to its price dynamics, technological progress, relatively broad adoption, and certain recognition by regulators. Ethereum was chosen for its technological innovations, particularly its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), the growth of its ecosystem, and the network effects arising from the blockchain's popularity. Polkadot made it into the top three based on the network's interoperability and scalability, a strong development team, and a dedicated community. The AI model highlighted Polkadot's active work on parachain technology, emphasizing its high utility.

As of the evening of Friday, 18 July, BTC/USD is trading at $66,940, ETH/USD is around $3,505, and XRP/USD is at 0.5745. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.43 trillion, up from $2.06 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has surged from 29 to 60 points over the past 7 days, moving from the Fear zone to the Greed zone.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
5
Shares / Re: NordFX broker: News, Weekly Analytics
« Last post by Stan NordFX on July 21, 2024, 10:53:05 am »
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 22 – 26 July 2024


EUR/USD: FOMC - Are Surprises Expected on 31 July?

This review will begin somewhat unusually, not from the start, but from the end of the past work week. On the evening of 18 July and the morning of the 19th, system administrators and users encountered non-functional servers and PCs running Windows. These systems began displaying the "blue screen of death" (BSOD) and entered an endless reboot loop. This global Microsoft outage affected many countries, including the USA, the UK, Spain, Germany, Turkey, and Australia. Many users in China also experienced the "blue screens of death." Critical computer systems, including those of emergency services, hospitals, police, airports, railways, broadcasters, internet providers, telecom companies, and other organisations such as banks and exchanges, either ceased functioning or started malfunctioning. Consequently, the situation in financial markets at that moment became almost force majeure.

The cause of the outage was identified as a software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which conflicted with a new Windows update released simultaneously. Microsoft stated that they had identified the problem and were taking easing steps. However, the duration of this work remains unclear.

Now let’s move on to the more "traditional" news of the week and discuss the chances of monetary policy easing. On Thursday, 18 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and the day before, Eurostat published consumer inflation (CPI) data. According to the statistical office's final assessment, annual inflation decreased to 2.5% last month from 2.6%, in line with market expectations. The core indicator, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.9%. It’s worth noting that it had shown a downward trend for nine months (from August 2023 to April 2024), reaching 2.7%. However, in May, it accelerated to 2.9% and remained at that level in June. Another inflation indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), registered at -0.2% month-on-month (forecast -0.1%) and -4.2% year-on-year (forecast -4.1%).

Commenting on these figures, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the regulator had made progress on the path to disinflation, as key inflation indicators are "moving in the right direction." However, she indicated that the ECB would not lower rates in July but did not rule out further steps towards monetary policy easing (QE) at the autumn meetings.

Of course, she knew what she was talking about: on the following day, at its meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. At the concluding press conference, Madam Lagarde did not say anything new. She pointed out the weakness of the European economy, noting that the risks to economic growth were leaning towards the downside. Regarding persistently high inflation, Ms. Lagarde reiterated that the ECB's decisions remain data-dependent. While she did not signal an imminent easing of monetary policy, she stated that the decision on the rate at the Governing Council meeting on 12 September remains "open."

The risk-averse market atmosphere and Christine Lagarde's dovish and vague comments prevented EUR/USD from continuing its move towards 1.1000, sending it down to the 1.0900 zone. On Friday morning, ECB Governing Council member and President of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, stated that uncertainty regarding economic growth had increased compared to a few months ago. He added that the market's expectations regarding the ECB's rate forecast were justified. His colleague on the Governing Council, the head of the Central Bank of Lithuania, Gediminas Simkus, also agreed with the market's prediction of two more 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Such dovish sentiments from European officials could have exerted significant downward pressure on EUR/USD, but similar rhetoric is also coming from their counterparts across the Atlantic. The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July. According to economists at Goldman Sachs, amid a sharp drop in U.S. inflation from 4.3% to 2.6%, the steepest decline since 1984, and a surge in unemployment from 3.6% to 4.1%, the regulator could begin gradually lowering the rate at this meeting. However, most FOMC officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, assert that the time for easing monetary policy has not yet arrived and that it is necessary to wait for new data. They suggest that any changes could be discussed in September.

Currently, the probability of a rate cut for the dollar in September stands at 96%, while for the euro, it is slightly lower at 80% (considering the 25 bps cut that occurred in June).

So, if nothing happens on 31 July, the Fed rate will remain at 5.50%. Since the ECB rate is 4.25%, this gives a certain advantage to the American currency. If risk aversion continues to dominate the market, it will create additional pressure on EUR/USD.

The pair ended the past week at 1.0883. As of the evening of 19 July, the analysts' forecast for the near term is as follows: 55% of their votes are for the pair's rise, and 65% for its fall. In technical analysis, 80% of trend indicators still favour the euro, while 15% have switched to the dollar. Among oscillators, 85% are green, with 15% turning neutral. The nearest support for the pair is at the 1.0865 zone, followed by 1.0790-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0565, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, and 1.0370. Resistance zones are located around 1.0890-1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

In the upcoming week, data on retail sales volumes in Germany will be released on Monday, 22 July. Wednesday, 24 July, can be called PPI Day, as a stream of preliminary data on business activity in various sectors of the economies of Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA will be released. On Thursday, we will learn about the state of the American economy in Q2, with GDP figures for this period becoming available. Additionally, the traditional number of initial jobless claims in the United States will be published on this day. The last working day of the week is expected to be very volatile, as on Friday, 26 July, the USA will release the Core CPI inflation figures, which are a key reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

GBP/USD: Bank of England – Are Surprises Expected on 1 August?


Our previous review of GBP/USD was titled "Pound Wins with Labour," and indeed, it has. Over the past week, the pair reached a high of 1.3043, rising to levels last seen a year ago in July 2023. In our view, this surge was driven more by political speculations surrounding the opposition's rise to power and the change of government in the UK than by economic indicators. What this reshuffle will actually deliver remains to be seen and assessed. For now, it is merely an opportunity to profit from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer's promises of a "national renewal."

The current macroeconomic statistics for the United Kingdom, published over the past week, did not provide much cause for optimism. Inflation data released on Wednesday, 17 July, was slightly higher than expected. The headline CPI came in at 2.0% year-on-year (market expectations were 1.9%), and the core CPI reached 3.5% (forecast was 3.4%). Although these figures are close to forecasts, they show that UK inflation remains stubborn and is resisting the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts.

On Friday, 19 July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published retail sales data for the UK, which also turned out to be disappointing. On a monthly basis, sales fell by -1.2% in June, following a rebound of 2.9% in May. Markets had predicted a decline of only -0.4%. The core retail sales indicator, excluding automotive fuel sales, fell by -1.5% month-on-month, compared to the previous jump of 2.9% and a forecast of -0.5%. The annual volume decreased by -0.2% in June, against a May growth of +1.3%, while the core figure declined by 0.8% year-on-year, compared to +1.2% the previous month.

In light of these data, the British currency began to lose ground, and GBP/USD ended the past week at 1.2912. Specialists at Singapore's UOB Bank believe that "the upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the pair's growth has come to an end." In their opinion, "the pound has likely entered a consolidation phase and will trade between 1.2850 and 1.3020 for some time."

Of course, much will depend on what happens at the BoE meeting on 1 August. The last rate change was a year ago, on 3 August 2023, when it was raised by 25 basis points to 5.25%. Now, according to analysts at Commerzbank, "the next Bank of England decision should be very interesting." They write, "We still lean towards the Bank of England soon making its first rate cut. However, whether this happens in August or September, the key point is that with the persistently high levels of core inflation and inflation in the services sector, a significant rate cut is unlikely. Therefore, in the medium term, the pound sterling should continue to receive good support.".

For now, the median forecast of experts for the near term is as follows: only 20% of analysts expect further strengthening of the pound and a rise in the pair, 60% predict a decline, and the remaining 20% have taken a neutral stance. As for the technical analysis on D1, 75% of trend indicators are green, and 25% are red. Among oscillators, 75% are green, 10% are neutral grey, and only 5% are red.

In the event of further declines, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2850-1.2860, followed by 1.2780-1.2800, 1.2610-1.2625, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, and 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of a rise, resistance levels are expected at 1.2990-1.3005, followed by 1.3040, 1.3100-1.3140, 1.3265-1.3300, 1.3375, 1.3315, 1.3555-1.3640, and 1.3750.

The release of preliminary business activity (PPI) data for the UK economy on Wednesday, 24 July, stands out among the events of the upcoming week. No other significant macroeconomic data releases are expected in the coming days. The next important event, as previously mentioned, will be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, 1 August.

continued below...
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Shares / RMH
« Last post by Patrick on July 19, 2024, 11:00:03 pm »
RMH 3.75 cents - LDT: 27 Aug 2024
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Shares / ACS
« Last post by Patrick on July 19, 2024, 11:00:03 pm »
ACS 16.00 cents - LDT: 30 Jul 2024
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Shares / Re: NordFX broker: News, Weekly Analytics
« Last post by Stan NordFX on July 17, 2024, 03:55:48 pm »
CryptoNews of the Week


– This week, bitcoin rose above $65,000, returning to its trading position from 20 June. BTC's price recovery is driven by renewed capital inflow into spot bitcoin ETFs, which purchase cryptocurrency to back their shares. By the end of the trading session on 16 July, they had acquired 6,470 BTC worth approximately $422 million. Capital inflow into these funds has continued for eight consecutive trading days. According to CoinShares, from 8 to 14 July, a total of about $1.7 billion was invested in all cryptocurrency investment products, including US spot ETFs. Of this, $260 million was attributed to BlackRock's IBIT fund. Since the beginning of 2024, the funds have received $17.8 billion, already surpassing the entire inflow of 2021, which was the peak year for the previous bull market cycle.

– Bitcoin is a legitimate financial instrument for investment during times of heightened fear, according to BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink on CNBC. He stated that he "was a proud skeptic, but studied [bitcoin], learned about it," and now acknowledges that he was previously mistaken about the asset.
Fink highlighted that the first cryptocurrency offers an opportunity to invest in "something outside the control of any one country." "I'm not suggesting there are no abuses, as with everything else, but it's a legitimate financial instrument that allows you to have possibly uncorrelated, non-connected types of income," Fink added.

– Panic over payouts to creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt.Gox has subsided. While this may not have helped, it certainly did not hinder the rise in digital asset prices.
Approximately 65,000 BTC are expected to be distributed among Mt.Gox creditors soon, and all these coins could be put up for sale. However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, claims that fears about seller pressure are overrated and will not derail the ongoing bull rally.
CoinMetrics analysts also believe that the market should "absorb" Mt.Gox creditors liquidating their assets if the payouts are conducted orderly and spread over weeks, depending on current market depth and trading volumes. Even if creditors massively dispose of their returned assets, well-known analyst Alex Krüger estimates that the maximum bitcoin price drop will not exceed 10%.

– Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas reported that trading of the long-awaited spot ETH-ETFs in the US will commence on 23 July. "The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) finally reached out to issuers asking for final [forms] S-1 to be returned on Wednesday [17 July], then requested activation [permission] for the launch on Tuesday, 23 July," the expert wrote. He added that this will happen if there are no "last-minute unforeseen issues." Sources in two potential Ethereum ETF issuers confirmed Balchunas' information.

– Peter Brandt, head of Factor LLC, gave a forecast for Ethereum ahead of the launch of spot ETH-ETF trading in the US. Previously, this legendary trader and analyst, who correctly predicted the 2018 crypto winter and many other market movements, repeatedly criticised ETH. Now, in his opinion, this altcoin is on the verge of significant growth. Brandt believes that Ethereum has found support near the lower edge of a rectangle that took over four months to form, and its next target will be levels above $5,600.
Trader Yoddha supported the positive forecast, noting that prolonged consolidation could give the leading altcoin the strength needed for active growth. According to his calculations, the cryptocurrency has prospects for moving above $10,000. The peak of Ethereum's growth, he believes, will be recorded in 2025. As for the current ATH (all-time high), it was recorded on 7 November 2021 at $4,856.

– Currently, Ripple (XRP), not Ethereum, has emerged as the growth leader among major altcoins, showing a weekly increase of about 35%. The catalyst for this surge was the announcement by traditional derivatives trading centres CME and CF Benchmarks of Indices and base rates for Ripple, which could promote institutional acceptance of this token.

– Analyst Benjamin Cowen is confident that bitcoin's dominance level (percentage of the total market value of all cryptocurrencies) is crucial for investors. He notes a significant trend: since late 2022, bitcoin's dominance has been steadily increasing. As of July 2024, it stands at 54.5%. Cowen believes that stricter government spending control in the US favours bitcoin over riskier altcoins. While the potential approval of ETH-ETF may provide Ethereum with short-term growth, bitcoin will continue to increase its share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, possibly reaching 60% by December 2024.

– Wall Street Journal journalists reported that data on Donald Trump's election campaign funding indicates he has managed to attract donations from several significant figures in the crypto industry. They sent about $3 million to his campaign accounts. Among them were the creators of the Gemini trading platform, the Winklevoss twins, and Kraken exchange co-founder Jesse Powell.
Despite the relatively small amount, these cryptocurrency donations received extensive coverage in the US media. This strengthened voters' perception that Trump is friendly to the digital asset sector. Furthermore, in June, the politician promised that if he wins the upcoming presidential election, he will provide relief to miners. He positioned himself as someone ready to establish clear legislation for the industry and stop hindering the development of blockchain and cryptography technologies with repressive measures. This stance helped him gain many supporters among crypto enthusiasts who actively support the Republican leader's campaign.

– Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the actions of the Winklevoss twins and Jesse Powell a mistake. In his opinion, Trump's pro-cryptocurrency statements seem insincere. "Trump's position is a calculated move to gain support from the population that owns cryptocurrencies, not a genuine belief in the advantages of digital assets. Most likely, under different political circumstances, Trump would change his stance. His primary goal now is to secure votes, not to protect the crypto industry," Hayes explained. According to him, Trump, being a shrewd politician, will say whatever people want to hear to get their votes. However, there are no guarantees these promises will be fulfilled.

– Analysts at Bernstein positively assessed the "Trump factor" for bitcoin miners. They suggest that in the current conditions, the quotations of companies in this segment will shift to growth, and their shares should be bought. "The Goldilocks scenario for mining is becoming more realistic: more chances for favourable political changes, the US becoming a dominant centre for bitcoin and next-generation chip mining, and the industry gaining recognition as an energy interconnector and becoming a reliable partner for AI data centres," Bernstein experts predict.

– However, the noise from mining has caused health problems for Texas residents. This state hosts 10 of the 34 major bitcoin mining companies in the US. Some miners, such as Marathon Digital and Hut 8, relocated there in 2021 when China imposed restrictions on the industry. Other companies chose Texas due to relatively low electricity costs. Hut 8 called the state "one of the lowest in local wholesale electricity prices in North America."
However, it turns out that the influx of miners into Texas has negatively impacted the state's residents. Specifically, due to the high noise level of 91 decibels produced by bitcoin mining rigs, some patients have been diagnosed with hearing loss. The noise from miners is comparable to the sound of a lawnmower or chainsaw, and according to the Hearing Health Foundation, sounds exceeding 70 decibels lead to severe problems, especially with prolonged exposure. Other health issues reported by Texas residents include sleep disturbances, dizziness, tremors, and even fainting.

– The artificial intelligence (AI) ChatGPT-4o from OpenAI selected three digital assets to buy in 2024 for long-term investment. The AI considered key factors such as "price dynamics over time, technological innovations, market acceptance, and potential for future growth." Based on these criteria, ChatGPT formed a relatively conservative long-term portfolio, including bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Polkadot (DOT).
According to the AI, bitcoin is a worthy candidate due to its price dynamics, technological progress, relatively broad acceptance, and some regulatory recognition. As for Ethereum, it was chosen for its technological innovations, particularly its transition to proof of stake (PoS), ecosystem growth, and network effects arising from blockchain popularity. Polkadot's inclusion in the top three is of particular interest. ChatGPT considers it a valuable investment based on its network compatibility and scalability, as well as a strong development team and dedicated community. The AI model also highlights Polkadot's work on parachains as significantly useful technology.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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« Last post by jaDEB on July 15, 2024, 08:10:31 am »
I wonder if MoneyPenny is doing well . .
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Gold as an Investment: Detailed Analysis and Price Forecasts for 2025-2050


Since ancient times, gold has remained a crucial element of global economies. Its unique properties have made it not only valuable as jewellery but also a reliable means of preserving wealth. Today, this metal constitutes a significant part of both investor portfolios and central bank reserves. This review analyses the dynamics and reasons for changes in the price of gold and presents forecasts from leading banks and experts regarding the XAU/USD pair in the medium- and long-term perspectives.


Gold Price: From Ancient Times to the 20th Century

Ancient Times. Gold mining and usage began in the 4th millennium BC. One of the first civilizations to actively use this metal was ancient Egypt, where it was mined from around 2000 BC. The importance of gold in ancient Egypt is hard to overestimate – it was considered "the flesh of the gods" and used in all aspects of life, from religious ceremonies to burial rites, in making vessels and statuettes, jewellery, and home decor, as well as a means of payment. Gold’s resistance to corrosion made it a symbol of immortality and strength.

Exact data on the value of gold in ancient civilizations is hard to find, but it is known to have been one of the most valuable commodities, used not only for trade but also for wealth storage. For example, in Babylon in 1600 BC, one talent of gold (about 30.3 kg) was worth approximately 10 talents of silver (about 303 kg).

In the late 8th century BC, in Asia Minor, gold was first used as coinage. The first pure gold coins with stamped images are attributed to the Lydian King Croesus. They were of irregular shape and often minted only on one side.

Antiquity. In antiquity, gold continued to play a key role in the economy and culture. The Greeks mined gold in various places, including the region of Troy, where, according to myth, the deposit was a gift from the god Zeus. For the ancient Greeks, gold symbolized purity and nobility and was used to create unique artworks and jewellery.

In classical Athens (5th century BC), one gold drachma was worth about 12 silver drachmas. During the time of Alexander the Great (4th century BC) and the subsequent Hellenistic kingdoms, the gold-to-silver ratio varied but generally stayed within the range of 1:10 to 1:12. (Interestingly, this ratio has now grown to about 1:80). Alexander the Great issued gold staters weighing about 8.6 grams, highly valued coins often used for large international transactions.

Middle Ages. In the Middle Ages, gold remained a vital element of the economy. In the Byzantine Empire, the solidus gold coin, weighing 4.5 grams, was used for international trade. In medieval Europe, gold also played a significant role, especially after the discovery of large gold deposits in Africa. In 1252, the gold florin was introduced in Florence and used throughout Europe. In England, the gold sovereign appeared in 1489.

What could one buy with such a coin? In England in the 11th-12th centuries, a sovereign could purchase a small piece of land about one acre or a part of a farm. In the 13th century, a gold coin could buy several heads of cattle, such as two cows or several sheep.

Gold was also used to acquire weapons or armour. For example, a good quality sword might cost about one coin. One gold coin could also pay for a skilled craftsman’s work for several months. For instance, such money could order the construction or repair of a house. Additionally, it could buy a large amount of food, such as a year's supply of bread for a family.

Modern Times. During the Age of Exploration, gold came to the forefront again. After the discovery of America, Spanish conquistadors brought vast quantities of gold to Europe. In the 17th-18th centuries, gold became the basis for the formation of monetary systems in Europe. By 1800, the price of one troy ounce of gold (31.1 grams) in Britain was about £4.25. Therefore, one troy ounce of this metal could buy a small plot of land in some rural areas or pay rent for housing for 8 months. It could also order the tailoring of four men's suits or pay for elementary school education for several years.

19th Century. The 19th century was marked by the Gold Rush, especially in California and Australia. This led to a significant increase in gold production and, consequently, a relative decrease in its price. In 1870, the price of one troy ounce of gold was about $20. Starting in 1879, the US monetary system was based on the so-called "gold standard," which tied the amount of paper money to the country’s gold reserves, and $20 could always be exchanged for a troy ounce of this precious metal. This price level remained until the early 20th century.

20th Century: $20 – $850 – $250

1934. It had been 55 years since the adoption of the "gold standard" when, during the Great Depression, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt enacted the "Gold Reserve Act." According to this document, private ownership of gold was declared illegal, and all precious metals had to be sold to the US Treasury. A year later, after all the gold had been transferred from private ownership to the state, Roosevelt raised its price by 70% to $35 per troy ounce, allowing him to print the corresponding amount of paper money.

For the next four decades, gold prices remained stable at around $35 until 1971, when another US President, Richard Nixon, decided to abandon the "gold standard" altogether, delinking the dollar from gold. This decision can be considered a turning point in the history of the modern world economy. Gold ceased to be money and began to be traded on the open market at a floating exchange rate. This completely freed the US government’s hands, allowing it to print infinite amounts of fiat currency, and the price of precious metals to grow exponentially.

By the end of 1973, the price of precious metals had already reached $97 per ounce and continued to rise amid economic instability and inflation, reaching $161 in 1975 and $307 in 1979. Just a year later, amid high inflation and political instability (including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution), XAU/USD reached a record level of $850 .

1982. After reaching this peak, there was a rollback to $376 in 1982, linked to rising interest rates in the US and stabilizing economic conditions. Political and economic changes in the world, such as the end of the Cold War and the development of global financial markets, stabilized the gold market, and until the mid-1990s, XAU/USD traded in the range of $350-$400. By 1999, the price had fallen to $252 per ounce, due to rising stock markets, low inflation, and decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

First Quarter of the 21st Century: From $280 to $2450

2000s. At the beginning of the 2000s, the price of gold was about $280 per troy ounce. However, it began to rise following the dot-com bubble burst and sharply increased during the global financial crisis, reaching $869 in 2008. This growth was driven by economic instability, falling stock markets, declining confidence in the dollar, and increased demand for gold from investors seeking safe-haven assets. By the end of 2010, the gold price continued to rise, reaching $1421. In September 2011, it reached a record level of $1900 per ounce. This rise was due to the European debt crisis and concerns about global economic instability. However, the dollar began to strengthen, inflation expectations fell, and stock markets rose, leading XAU/USD to turn south, falling to $1060 by the end of 2015.

After this, another reversal occurred, and the pair headed north again. In 2020, the price reached a new record level of $2067. The primary driver here was the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted massive monetary stimulus measures (QE) by governments and central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. The historical maximum to date was reached in May 2024 at $2450, aided by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ECB, and other leading central banks.

Why Gold?

Mid-2024. Before moving on to gold price forecasts, let's answer the question: what exactly makes this yellow metal valuable?

Firstly, note its physical and chemical properties. Gold is chemically inert, resistant to corrosion, and does not rust or tarnish over time, making it an ideal asset for value storage. It has an attractive appearance and lustre that does not fade over time, making it popular for making jewellery and luxury items. It is also relatively rare in the Earth’s crust. Limited availability makes it valuable since demand always exceeds supply.

Next, follow the economic factors, which are perhaps more important in the modern world. Gold is traditionally used as a means of preserving capital. We have already mentioned that in times of economic instability and geopolitical tension, investors often turn to gold to protect their savings from depreciation. Naturally, in such a situation, its price is influenced by the level of inflation and related monetary policies of central banks, including interest rate changes and quantitative easing (QE) or tightening (QT) programmes.

Investors use gold to diversify their portfolios and reduce risks. Gold has high liquidity, allowing it to be quickly and easily converted into cash or goods and services worldwide. This makes it attractive not only for investors but also for central banks, which hold significant gold reserves as part of their international reserves. This helps them maintain national currency stability and serves as a guarantee in case of financial crises. For example, the Federal Reserve holds nearly 70% of its foreign reserves in gold.

Forecasts for the Second Half of 2024 and 2025

Gold price forecasts for the end of 2024 and 2025 vary, but most analysts from leading global banks and agencies agree that its price will rise. UBS strategists predict an increase to $2500 per ounce. J.P. Morgan also targets $2500 in the medium term, provided the Federal Reserve cuts rates and economic instability persists.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts and expects the price to reach $2700 per ounce in 2025. Bank of America economists initially forecasted $2400 for 2024 but also revised their forecast upwards to $3000 by 2025. The primary condition for growth, according to the bank, is the start of active rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which will attract investors to gold as a safe-haven asset.

Citi specialists agree with this figure. "The most likely scenario in which an ounce of gold rises to $3000," they write in an analytical note, "besides the Federal Reserve rate cut, is the rapid acceleration of the current but slow trend – the de-dollarization of central banks in developing economies, which will undermine confidence in the US dollar."

Rosenberg Research analysts also mention a figure of $3000. The consulting agency Yardeni Research does not rule out that due to a possible new wave of inflation, XAU/USD could rise to $3500 by the end of next year. The super-bullish forecast was given by TheDailyGold Premium magazine editor Jordan Roy-Byrne. Based on the "Cup and Handle" model, he stated that a breakout is coming, and with it a new cyclical bull market. "The current measured target for gold," writes Roy-Byrne, "is $3000, and its logarithmic target is somewhere between $3745 and $4080."

Forecasts to 2050

Most major banks and financial data providers typically offer only short- and medium-term forecasts. The main reason is that markets can be very volatile, and small changes in supply or demand factors and external events can lead to unexpected price fluctuations, casting doubt on prediction accuracy.

Despite this, there are different scenarios and long-term price forecasts for gold for 2030-50. Economist Charlie Morris, in his work "Rational Case for Gold by 2030," forecasts a price of $7000 per ounce. Another specialist, David Harper, predicted that the price of gold could reach $6800 by 2040. This scenario, according to Harper, describes reasonable growth with a return rate of about 7.2% per year.

Regarding a 25-year horizon, Josep Peñuelas, a research professor at the Centre for Ecological Research in Barcelona, warned that by 2050, the world might run out of key metals, including gold. However, other futurist theories are more optimistic. According to renowned investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki, gold has existed since time immemorial and, being "God’s money," is likely to become the primary form of currency in the future. In his book "Fake," Kiyosaki argues that ultimately, gold, along with bitcoins, could destroy paper currencies and become the foundation of the global financial system.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
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