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Messages - Snakepit

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46
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 30, 2014, 10:17:39 pm »
Guys, just something I noticed. Growthpoint had a breakout on Friday according to FT.com charts. Ken Calhoun would have been all over this share as it complies with 3 conditions that he requires for a breakout. http://www.topyields.nl/stock-details-ft.php?SYMBOL=GRT%3AJNB&x=8&y=4

1. A long candle was used to do the breakout.
2. Big volume on that candle
3. A close by more that 20 cents above breakout line

Of course this is also number 8 on the list of best dividend shares - http://www.topyields.nl/Top-dividend-yields-of-JSE.php

47
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 29, 2014, 09:21:09 pm »
Great. Happy for you.  :TU:

48
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 28, 2014, 07:34:20 am »
Ja MA's do create S/R zones. The secret is to wait for confirmation before taking trades. MA's or any other indicator for that matter can be broken like a twig. Remember I warned about the 80/20 rule in an earlier article?

MTA is under a support zone. A close above R42.28 would be the less risky entry for me. That put's you above the R/S zone. That Doji of 26/03/2014 messes up the works. If they wanted to go up, why create an indecision candle?

On top of all this, yesterday there was a massive volume spike on the hour chart. I don't know why but surely a share that is getting ready to bounce should start showing green candles? I don't like reading too much into volume. In this case for example, was it shorts taking profit or was it shorts getting in to drive the price down or was it stops being hit?(http://www.topyields.nl/stock-details-ft.php?SYMBOL=mta%3AJNB&x=5&y=5)

49
Shares / Re: PNC
« on: March 26, 2014, 08:43:00 pm »
I agree with you Orca. If the financials are good, why abandon the shares, but we live in a country where corruption is everywhere and people are fed-up. I would caution this situation. The company that I work for would distance itself from a company where the directors are involved in criminal activity. If PNC's partners (suppliers or resellers) jump ship, it could destroy the company.

50
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 26, 2014, 08:30:54 pm »
Dem I got it right!! ???

Na, just joking. Glad I could help. I think I should have been a teacher. I feel good if someone else benefits from my knowledge. :laugh:

51
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 21, 2014, 11:56:47 am »
Just to add some clarification on technical analysis. Guys remember that we work on probabilities. 80% Of the time the candle signal is valid, but it is that 20% that messes up the works. There is not a single candle signal that is 100% reliable. Wish there was. I would have been a billionaire!!! :LHST:

I have see a hammer get eaten up and spit out with the next candle and hammers are pretty reliable. It hits your stops and make them fly all over the place like shatterproof glass. It rips the gore out of your heart and there is nothing, absolutely nothing you can do about it. :'(

That is why futures traders are use to taking knocks. As long as we make far more than what we lose. :whistle:

Now, with permission, if you are interested in learning more about candles and futures from SA okes, go and check out http://www.realchartist.com/. No demmit, I don't get money for this! I am sending you to a place of knowledge. Realchartist is down here in Cape Town and not in some overseas location. A bunch of local guys and girls. 

52
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 20, 2014, 09:06:33 pm »
NPN - According to FT.com chart, they closed right against resistance. Can they push threw on Monday or are they going to sink back? There is a big support zone under them with a hammer. If they don't push threw, I suspect they will fall back to that support zone. It was serious support in January and February.

53
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 20, 2014, 08:46:20 pm »
MSM - Had an engulfing candle yesterday to go down, but threw on breaks today with a Highwave candle. Shorting has not been confirmed!

Where a Doji is a signal of indecision, a Highwave candle is seen as balance between the bears and bulls with a very slight edge towards the color of the candle. Once again, on futures I take note of Highwave candles as they do cause a change in direction.

54
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 20, 2014, 08:41:33 pm »
Moneypenny, my pleasure.

I'm having a hardtime with BGA charts tonight. On SBK we have Dragonfly Doji and on Reuters and FT.com we have a Hangingman. I don't know which is correct. I need reliable charts. :wall:

Let's assume it's a Hangingman. What I have noticed in SA on futures, a hangingman is seen as a reversal, but in the states a hangingman is seen as a lower price rejection. But we in SA so lets assume the possibility of a reversal. Wait for confirmation.

55
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 19, 2014, 07:43:25 pm »
BGA - Formed a Doji today, closed a gap and the top of the gap is resistance + it's the bottom of a hammer. 14418 is a wall of worry. Don't know if you should short this one yet. A close under 14168, I would short yes.


56
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 19, 2014, 08:07:59 am »
NPN seems to be struggling to get above it's hammer of Friday. Are they going to jump the hammer and then jump right into the next hammer's bottom?
ABL - Sideways spring - I would wait for a breakout above R10.60 but even better is a breakout above R10.85 :whistle:

57
Shares / Re: Esor
« on: March 19, 2014, 08:00:31 am »
Esor has got an engulfing candle. Let's see if it can get itself out of the pit it's in.

58
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 17, 2014, 07:53:47 am »
Oh I almost forgot. Orca on the Reuters chart that you posted, Friday's candle shows as a Doji. On the SBK chart, Friday's candle shows as a Hammer. Doji's are "can't make your mind up" situations and hammers form at support points. So once again I warn. Be careful of what you read from the Reuters chart.

59
Shares / Re: Esor
« on: March 15, 2014, 09:01:16 pm »
Okay Esor is testing support with a doji. If you get a longish green candle on Monday, you have a Morning Star. So let's see what happens on Monday. This share is literally sitting between a rock and a hardplace. The top of the doji bumped against resistance and the bottom of the doji bumped against support. Doji's are indecision points. It's make or break time.

60
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 15, 2014, 08:44:50 pm »
Naspers being what they are, oh and by the way, I worked for them for 7 years, seeing that gap I immediately asked myself who is dragging Naspers down. Tencent is the culprit it seems. But that is beside the point. Let's look at the technicals.

I see a possible island reversal. I also see that they jumped right into the support line of a Shooting Star of 17 Jan's. Dem that was beautiful! hehehe. Should have taken a long at that support line. But I guess you can't scalp shares.

I also see that they jumped a hammer of 3 March. Pretty hectic to jump hammers. Who's trying to drive the price down or have they already succeeded? What I expect is for price to go and test the bottom of the 3 March hammer but it would have to push past the top of Friday's hammer first. If you did buy on Friday, be careful.

Up till September last year, all the green candles were a good size, but then suddenly they all became small candles, like someone was throwing on the brakes and the red candles became longer candles! Yes here and there is a longish green candle, but was that just greed pushing up the price? Hmmm that would have created warning signs for me. Small and long candles show eagerness or the lack there of, in a share's direction.

There is something wrong with this share. Why did it gap down so much when it reached the super high? Why not just pullback slowly and go and test a few lower points and then go up?

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