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Messages - Snakepit

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61
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 15, 2014, 08:08:12 pm »
Fist things first - ABL had an engulfing candle, that did not follow through. As a matter of fact, it gapped down the next day.  Gapping down is pretty serious on a share. We see gapping down often on futures, but on shares it's like someone is on a mission.

Now one of two things can happen.


1. They test the middle of the body of the engulfing candle cause that is the first support point and then go up or
2. The engulfing gets eaten up and the market does go and test the hammer.

62
Shares / Re: Esor
« on: March 14, 2014, 08:51:15 am »
Thanks gcr. Well carfan, there is something better just around the corner.

63
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 14, 2014, 08:48:27 am »
Thanks Aragorn for that information. It will be interesting to see what price does with a non price created gap.

64
Shares / Re: Esor
« on: March 13, 2014, 09:45:45 pm »
Shame. Wonder if they can go lower. I can't go back far enough to see where the SR levels are. Is there anything seriously wrong with the company? This might just be a Buffet share. Maybe they get the contract to build the toll roads in the Western Cape? 37c Per share. I would buy it and put a stop at 33c. Speculative share?? As long as you have time. For now they have a support level at 34c. It might get tested and then bounce a bit. This is pure speculation.

65
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 13, 2014, 09:25:34 pm »
Orca, no you confused. The chart you posted shows the May month gap. The one we talking about is the 8 November gap. Moneypennies chart also shows the Novemebre gap.

On the issue of gaps - I beg to differ. Gaps always form R/S points. If a gap is under price, it's support. Above price it's resistance. Based on my experience and unfortunately it is based on futures trading, 50 points into a gap is always first resistance if the gap is above you. Steve Nison and the big candle traders including the Japanese, they all love gaps when trading shares. But to prove this, we should go back in time and investigate what happens around gaps on SA shares.

66
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 13, 2014, 02:23:49 pm »
Ja Moneypenny, that's the one. Big gap. So I have to assume that the Reuters charts have a glitch!

I also noticed on Tuesday that EMI was showing a hammer on Reuters, but the next day it was.... "gone". Ja I know it sounds crazy. But if an airlines can lose a boeing, who am I to say that  a hammer can't disappear?

67
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 12, 2014, 09:43:07 pm »
Wonder if Coronation bought it just after that previous hammer. Would make sense. But this share takes months to go anywhere.

68
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 12, 2014, 09:13:59 pm »
Okay what I see on SBK's chart.

A resistance (ceiling) point was formed on 12 Dec. Price cut it came back to test it and failed. That ceiling was tested twice and both times price could not get through. Remember that price R10.90
The hammer - formed on 14 Feb (R9.37), now that is the important one. I expect that hammer to be tested to see if it is solid. I would not buy this share at this stage, but when we hit that hammer, if we do, I would keep a very close eye on it. Yes as you mentioned, we are on small support, but we so close to that hammer. Why not go and give it a poke, even if it's just a long tail on a candle! Also take note that R9.00 was very big resistance in 2001 and 2002. It is now support and that is where that hammer ended at R9.06. On SBK today ended in a Gravestone Doji with higher price rejection and that is why I think the market want to go and test that hammer. So let's see what happens.



ORCA, I notice something. I compare the Standard Bank chart to the Reuters chart. SBK shows a big gap 8 November to 11 November. Reuters does not reflect it at all. It was a massive price drop of almost 5 rand. Not good when you get conflicting charts. However both charts show the hammer.

I see a head and shoulder pattern on the Reuters chart but I don't see it on the SBK chart. Will have to investigate which is more reliable.

69
Shares / Re: Negative PE ratios.
« on: March 12, 2014, 07:56:06 pm »
Heheheheh  = MDC. What does Buffet say - buy when others are fearful. This looks like one of those shares. Fundamentals are still good. Actually this the the type of share that should be bought. But don't take my word for it.

70
Off topic / How do you?
« on: March 11, 2014, 06:10:36 pm »
Guys, how do you grab a chart from Reuters website? :wall:

71
Shares / Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 07, 2014, 08:25:17 am »
Ja while typing the first line, a thought popped into my head - what if someone goes and buys a million shares based on our analysis and the share takes a nose dive? Let's face it, shares, cfd's, futures, they all pretty risky items to trade. Maybe shares are less risky, but they all still have a risk component.

72
Shares / Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:51:48 am »
They say knowledge is power. I mentioned that some forum members are "strong" on technical analysis. You can place your chart in this thread and we will give comments about what we see on your chart.

DISCLAIMER!! We do not at anytime say that you should buy a share based on our analysis.  Don't be silly. We do not say that technical analysis is the alpha and omega. We do say that it has it's place in analyzing what to buy and when. Do your home work. We just want to help you make a more informed decision.

By placing a chart in this thread you agree to and understand the above. Is that clear?

Specifications:
1. It must be a candlestick chart. Green and red candlestick charts are the best. The patterns we analyze are in the candles. Next to reading the ticker tape of price, candles is the best.
2. The shorter the time frame, the better, as patterns appear in an hour chart that you might not see in a daily chart.

Now let's see if we can help you make a million bucks!

73
Shares / Re: Retirement annuity advice
« on: February 28, 2014, 09:00:37 pm »
And here is the crem-de-la-crem:

http://www.fin24.com/Money/Retirement/Beware-retirement-funds-hidden-secret-20130814

74
Shares / Re: Retirement annuity advice
« on: February 28, 2014, 08:46:06 pm »
As it so happens, I just shredded a Sanlam policy yesterday that I found in one of my drawers. After 20 years it would have paid out in 2015 the massive amount of........... R16 000. Luckily I bought it off years ago.

I want to share a secret with you guys. Actuaries are the soothsayers of the financial industry. I have seen those okes in action. They plot data (inflation, interest rates, you name it) into databases and then run predictions on the data. Believe me if I tell you that the insurance industry does not release a product that have not been tested in every scenario possible and the insurance company always, always come out tops. I have seen a computer run for 2 weeks non stop testing a scenario. Sometimes the scenario is so complicated, it literally bombs out corrupting the data. These okes don't just do it for SA companies. They do it for UK companies also. For them we are cheap labor so they pass a lot of that kind of work to us.

In a nutshell, when an insurance company release a product for sale, they know exactly what the outcome will be.

75
Shares / Re: South Africa Top 40
« on: February 28, 2014, 08:35:21 pm »
Hehehehhahhah ja a head and shoulders. Most traders believe in them. You see these patterns appear over and over in futures.

So to all forum users. Let the games begin. Give us a chart to analyze. What do you have to lose?

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