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Author Topic: Where are things going? Your opinion  (Read 5650 times)

Concarney

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Where are things going? Your opinion
« on: September 30, 2014, 10:37:09 am »
Hi guys & girls

So, looking at our collection of comments and crying emoticons in the last couple of hundred posts, it's clear that people are not all that happy in our current situation. All shares are down, and by a significant margin to. So this is just a post to see what other people think will happen in the long term. Is it good to buy now while things are beat, or are they going to get beat more?

Personally, I'm thinking that long term this is all going to be for the good. Prices on some ETF's are the lowest they've been in the last year, whereas they have shown consistent growth before, so I believe they're going to pick up again. A dip now just means more capital for my buck. The phenomenon known as "hot money" will come to an end soon, and foreign investors will realize that we still have the ability to generate higher returns in our emerging market than those of the developed countries.

Give me your opinion. Am I wrong? Am I right? Am I wasting your time ;).

Cheers
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Orca

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Re: Where are things going? Your opinion
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2014, 11:55:15 am »
According to my research (not my view) we are still in a bull market with the exception of the resi sector. I would buy with caution at these levels as it might not yet have bottomed but as we cannot predict bottoms, buying now for the long term could be appropriate.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Where are things going? Your opinion
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2014, 01:25:29 pm »
Obviously I’m not one to comment seeing I left our Investor Challenge early Feb as I was convinced this was going to be an excruciatingly tormenting year for equities and I was proven wrong.

But since you've asked, I’ll give my opinion anyway.

This past year, we had a few wars, threats between major nations, missing and downed planes, ebola, and chilling economic news/company results; yet we are still on all-time and multi-year highs locally and internationally.
 
The markets are flooded with artificial liquidity and analyzing in retrospect I have to ask:

Where could all this money go? 

Gold? No.  Bonds? No.  Property?  No. 

Seems to me the correct answer was Equities/IPO’s.

So I’ve missed the bus. 

I still choose to stay in cash for now until at least Q1 next year. It’s not a sin to protect capital, you know? ;D  Let’s just call it ‘strategy’ and ‘protecting capital’ if someone should ask.

Something’s gotta give eventually.  Just don’t know when or why.

But that being said, if we are still hovering at all time highs come Q1, I'll go in after dips.
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Bevan

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Re: Where are things going? Your opinion
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2014, 07:05:15 pm »
As MoneyPenny has said, the only place for spare cash to go this year has been equities. This is because the Fed has basically closed down all other options by keeping interest rates low and frozen.

The belief is building that rates will now start to increase. US jobs are getting better and the US economy is starting to pump again. China is weak which is why most commodities are still downbeat. I expect a little more downside (perhaps another 5%) on equities but next week should be a decent recovery (dead cat bounce) for stocks. I would look to start picking up some DOW or ALSI futures from tomorrow but on the very light side. Once momentum turns positive again and confirms the recovery then would increase long position.
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