The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: yozzi on February 27, 2017, 12:25:51 pm
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Not so long ago we were reaping the rewards of stocks like the INDI, CML, etc with 20-30% annual gains being the norm but what's happened to the market and will it turn around any time soon?
Is anyone still making this type of growth or is it just a pipedream?
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KAP
Resource shares in general are probably a "better" bet if you are willing to risk it.
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That strong bull run after the 2008 crash lasted for about 5 years but it is over. The ALSI has been flat for 2 years. Luckily my dividends are 60% of my living costs. :wall:
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Those who look at stats may ponder the under mentioned numbers
ALSI hit an all time high 55,298.92 on 24/4/2015 and is currently sitting at 51.649.14 - which is quite a retracement (probably affected by the stronger Rand)
Top40 hit an all time high 49,192.90 on 4/12/2015 and is currently sitting at 44,618.67 - again quite a sizeable retracement
On my personal portfolio I have budgeted an 18% annual increase in the portfolio value growth - I missed out in 2007 and 2008 but have more than recovered these shortfalls, however last year my growth was almost half the budget figure and though February to date has been more than satisfactory I think the rest of the year could be flat and possibly even go into decline for the year. I think our market is going to take some battering due to political issues rather than fundamentals - so expect another year at least of rocky roads - especially as we have ANC changing of the guards at the end of this year and then a run up to 2019 national elections
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Pretty hard when GDP is <2%
That said, there are companies that do still have impressive earnings growth - EOH on a fairly undemanding p/e, COH on a high p/e - sure there are many others with a 3+ years decent growth.
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Everything has been going for a ball of cr@p since Orca upped and left :'( . Even CML does not make u a profit anymore.
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
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Everything has been going for a ball of cr@p since Orca upped and left :'( . Even CML does not make u a profit anymore.
I sold out of my CML shares once there price started falling after their banking investments went to the wall - but I move those funds into their Top20 fund which seems to have saved my bacon in terms of neutralising some of my potential lack of growth on the share price
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
You really reckon Indi is the place to be over NFEMOM or CTOP50? Feels like we shifted back to resources being the best place to be (I use that term very very loosely)
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
But my emotions are fcking with me, the devil is telling me sell it all thor, sell it it!
The devil is telling me to make peace with this corrupt country and buy some NEWFSA and become part of the problem.
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
You really reckon Indi is the place to be over NFEMOM or CTOP50? Feels like we shifted back to resources being the best place to be (I use that term very very loosely)
I don't hold any resources shares as my take on sunny RSA is that as soon as we get improved prices on resources we end up with strikes and all sorts of delays in actually getting the ore out of the ground. The government has mouthed off about beneficiation for years and gets no closer to doing anything in this direction as it is just not viable as labour costs are exorbitant and we have a lazy workforce who find more satisfaction in striking than in doing an honest days work. So in reality (my opinion) resources will not be the countries saviour and we need to look elsewhere, also with the latest tax disincentives who will really want to take on investment risk.
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
You really reckon Indi is the place to be over NFEMOM or CTOP50? Feels like we shifted back to resources being the best place to be (I use that term very very loosely)
I don't hold any resources shares as my take on sunny RSA is that as soon as we get improved prices on resources we end up with strikes and all sorts of delays in actually getting the ore out of the ground. The government has mouthed off about beneficiation for years and gets no closer to doing anything in this direction as it is just not viable as labour costs are exorbitant and we have a lazy workforce who find more satisfaction in striking than in doing an honest days work. So in reality (my opinion) resources will not be the countries saviour and we need to look elsewhere, also with the latest tax disincentives who will really want to take on investment risk.
Fair enough. But that's the reason I don't like sector ETFs like INDI or RESI. I prefer those that "auto adjust". Latest SENS update showed NFEMOM dropping a couple of resource shares (and Clicks altogether btw...Was the largest constituent before that).
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KAP, RLF, AXL all served me pretty good. But yes since Zuma and Gupta everything went to shiat. pretty much everything till November 2016.
DbxJP fcked.
dbxwd fcked.
STXIND fcked.
Stick with your STXIND and DBXWD both are long term investments - the old adage time in the market, not timing the market needs to be heeded - on my INDI I am still up 45% - and simply if this economy is to improve then the INDI will be the first to improve. The DBXWD is your backstop - if Zuma and his corrupt cadres bullet Gordhan then the Rand will see its ar%$ and you will be thankful for being in this DBX - I too am taking some pain on DBXWD but only .6% at present so can sit out the volatility
So play the long game
You really reckon Indi is the place to be over NFEMOM or CTOP50? Feels like we shifted back to resources being the best place to be (I use that term very very loosely)
I don't hold any resources shares as my take on sunny RSA is that as soon as we get improved prices on resources we end up with strikes and all sorts of delays in actually getting the ore out of the ground. The government has mouthed off about beneficiation for years and gets no closer to doing anything in this direction as it is just not viable as labour costs are exorbitant and we have a lazy workforce who find more satisfaction in striking than in doing an honest days work. So in reality (my opinion) resources will not be the countries saviour and we need to look elsewhere, also with the latest tax disincentives who will really want to take on investment risk.
Fair enough. But that's the reason I don't like sector ETFs like INDI or RESI. I prefer those that "auto adjust". Latest SENS update showed NFEMOM dropping a couple of resource shares (and Clicks altogether btw...Was the largest constituent before that).
Certainly curious about the dropping of Clicks as I'm showing 172.9% share price growth since purchasing in 2011
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Certainly curious about the dropping of Clicks as I'm showing 172.9% share price growth since purchasing in 2011
That new WITS algorithm working overtime :D
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Sold out of INDI, CML but made a major mistake by buying US$ last year at R14.50! I must stop hoping for bad news to make money as that's what it amounts to!
Thought it was going much higher but def not the case so now sitting with a pile of dollars and plotting where to invest and looking to buy ETF's for the long term
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I must stop hoping for bad news to make money as that's what it amounts to!
Funny, that is also where I am. But I am not hoping for it, I am just waiting for it.
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Not so long ago we were reaping the rewards of stocks like the INDI, CML, etc with 20-30% annual gains being the norm but what's happened to the market and will it turn around any time soon?
Is anyone still making this type of growth or is it just a pipedream?
Posted this two years ago with some interesting replies but has anything changed? Zuma's gone but we've still got the Eskom debacle, land expropriation has reared it's head again and the Rand up and down as usual!
Still looking for that 15-20% annual growth but it's like trying to find the proverbial needle in a haystack!
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Accept that over the last 5 years the economy in RSA has been in decline, we have a worsening exchange rate, and and GDP is growing at less than 1%. Then we had a change in president who regrettably is nothing more than a windbag - just shows his gifted enterprises taught him nought about business and economics - so we have a present who is nothing more than a goffer for the ANC.
Somewhere I read today that since November last year foreigners and saffers have taken R 400 billion out of RSA and there is little chance of the country receiving foreign investor funds unless stringent conditions are met. Elephant in the room is China who could invest heavily in this country but again they will demand concession and conditions that would make a smarty box look opaque.
When the political situation gets to an equilibrium then only are we likely to see some growth, forex investment and other good things happening in this country.
When the government have the courage to charge fraudsters (many of their own party members), jail the people and get the trade unions to wind in their necks on stupid wage demands with no evident productivity gains, then and only then will we see this country revert to a great place to work and live in.
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GCR that is the big worry for me that R400b and more has gone out of the country in a few months and with the way this government is going it's going to get far worse and I'm really shocked at how this new president has done absolutely nothing to quell the fears of his own country and for investors from overseas! What is he trying to do run the place into the ground and he was supposed to be the great new hope after the previous regime and as a very wealthy man money would not have been his sole aim ala Trump but I see nothing that gives me any confidence for the future.
Still doesn't help me with my goal of getting an investment that gives me 15-20% return per year though! :'(
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Well if you are the risky type then you could invest in AYO, Steinhoff, Sygnia, Dischem, ADAPIT and home for a return to better days (except AYO) :TU:
I hold shares in the last 4 and am prepared to wait a while longer before making a sell decision
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All my mid caps are now small caps. 8) (me smoking a joint to be happy about it)
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Still doesn't help me with my goal of getting an investment that gives me 15-20% return per year though! :'(
The only way you're going to see that type of return is taking an outsized bet on something the market thinks unlikely to happen. Some of the smart money is punting gold, with most reserve banks around the world piling into physical gold, as no-one trusts US debt anymore. Or you could buy an out the money collar on Bitcoin, if you can find someone to structure you one. Shouldn't be too difficult if you're a HNW with a private bank. Take below $1,000 as your put strike and above $5,000 as your call strike. I can't see crypto-currencies going sideways for much longer as people are either going to start bailing out (i.e. price goes to zero) or else somehow a fire gets lit under them (price goes above $5,000). You could also buy a deep out the money put on equities. A lot of smart money is also punting second passports, and land with decent water on it. It's not going to get you a 20% return but you will have options should the proverbial sh1t hit the fan.