The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Bevan on January 09, 2014, 08:27:40 am
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I thought it might be worth having a thread for USD:ZAR updates for those investing in shares as Rand hedges. The general mood seems to be that the Rand could weaken further but is a little overcooked at the moment. This is borne out as it approaches the top bollinger in the chart below.
Short term momentum is also a little overbought (i.e. Rand oversold) for now although the trend and long term momentum support this direction. I suspect we will see 10.80 forming a ceiling (support) level for the Rand and if markets pick up from here then some short term Rand strengthening is in order. Extrapolation of the lower bollinger suggests we could see 10.30 to 10.40 forming a floor level in a few weeks time as momentum inevitably moves back down. However this will be counter to trend and downward moves will be choppy and hard to profit from.
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:wtf: does not look good .. .. ... Patrick, is the prizes in the investor challange in Rands or dollars ?
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Not looking good at all. Lesson is never to buck a positive trend combined with positive momentum i.e. red line in top half of momentum chart, even if short term indicator breaks down. While the 10.80 level held briefly and we did see a recovery we came right back the next day to blast through it.
Extrapolating forward on this move we could easily see an 11 handle tested but by then we will be very overbought (Rand oversold). I would expect we will then bounce around 11 for some time as momentum wears back down before any new surge can take place.
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:wtf: does not look good .. .. ... Patrick, is the prizes in the investor challange in Rands or dollars ?
Well last year was zero rands, but if you win this year I'll convert to dollars. Just cos I know you :laugh:
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Nice, nice, ok $0.00 x R10.83 = R0.00. Cool, will buy some Oando shares with that... thanks Patrick. Hope you remember your keys, but forget your car and walk home....