Unlike many other markets, the stock market hardly ever gives you a chance to short it. Aside from the famed Plunge Prevention Team, we also now have Robin Hood traders, day traders, swing traders, bots, funds and of course the monthly splurge from the FIRE crowd, pension funds etc. This is all unprecedented stuff - nowhere in the history of markets has so much firepower been thrown at the market to make it go up. But of course when everyone is long, the speed and depth of the panic when crashes come will only get wilder and wilder.
The market rallied itself out of a fall the other day, and we are now pretty extended to the upside. We only have a week or so to go before printing a nicely positive upside breakout for the stock market on a monthly chart. It's pretty wild to think that by the end of August the market could be back at the level it started the year at, as if Covid never even happened. And yet, the US has thrown trillions of firepower into the market. Of course, with the red signal line now having reached zero, we could see a positive July, Aug and Sep, with a subsequent turn down in momentum come end of year.
Meanwhile, my favourite trade remains gold, although that is quite extended to the upside now as well. It's fascinating how gold and stocks have rallied at the same time - that hardly ever happens as they normally have quite strong inverse correlation.
Although we are due for a short term stocks correction, in the medium term it looks like we should see a good run towards Jan-20 levels on the Dow, at which point the market might get the wobbles again, depending on how Main Street is faring relative to Wall Street.