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So who is the bleeding heart today?

Could not be Syria
F&G is @ 47 Neutral
US jobless claims less than expected
SA record closing yesterday
SA strikes, but that is normal this time of the year 

Oh, I know, it is that 't'-word, t for twits, tools, twats, and trolls.


Most probably this afternoon US data 14:30 might push us up back again.

Summers withdraws from Fed chief consideration Former US Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers has withdrawn his name from the list of potential candidates to replace Ben Bernanke as the head of the US Federal Reserve, according to various US media outlets Sunday
Fed may taper without causing market tantrum Despite assurances that the stimulus would be withdrawn gradually and that interest rates would not rise any time soon, investors have been pricing in a turning point in the financial cycle.
Eskom wants priority access to SA coal as shortages loom Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., supplier of 95% of South Africa’s power, warned it may face coal shortages from 2018 and urged lawmakers to ensure it gets priority access to the nation’s reserves of the fuel.

Thank you Aragorn & jaDEB.

So we prefer Janet because she moves slower, got it.

Do all of you believe the Syria crisis is over?  Personally I don't, but playing it long while it lasts. I think it will crop up again. Why you ask?  Because Angela Merkel was way to silent throughout this whole fiasco, watch her after German election this week 22 Sep. Just a gut feeling, hopefully I'm wrong.

And jaDEB I must confess, I thought by now you would have been back in the bottom part with that pick, you taught me a lesson or two in humility.   (This emotion is supposed to show embarrassment, I'm not sure what this face says, disapproval perhaps but I mean it as shame.)

And Patrick, you and Aspen making me very nervous with your recent moves.

Moon, your shadow stats or BLS-stats as they call it, are not BS but the real thing.  Just goes to show, economic data is all smoke and mirrors and that is what we trade.  I think a true purist economist will have a hard time making trading and investing decisions on a day to day basis, you have to be able to go with the flow.

I see Hong Kong unemployment rate steady this morning @ 3.30%, as is GB CPI (YoY) @ 2.7%.

Fed Policy meeting will be the main driving force this week (tomorrow 20:30), today's trading seems uninspired, guessing most investors on the sidelines and most traders waiting for good short entry points.

Asia & Europe mostly red as is US futures, SAT40 IGM -28 atm.

New highs yesterday for Aspen, Naspers, EOH, Steinhoff and Firstrand.

Nobody gets any points today for guessing what will drive markets

The Fed was very sneaky these past few months, planting a tapering seed in investors consciousness, thus for longer-term investors it is of no consequence whether tapering arrives now or later, point is it will be here by year end anyway.

Traders on the other hand have to be especially wake-up today. One strategist summed it up brilliantly like this:

A rally if expectations are met, or
A pop, then a drop if tapering is delayed, or
A sell off on a big taper.

So choose traders, be wise and make a stand. 

Four of the five Asian markets are green atm, crude oil up, gold down @ $1299, US futures still positive, SAT40 -85 atm.

10:00 SA CPI (MoM) previous 1.10%, expect 0.30%
10:30 GB MPC Meeting minutes
13:00 SA Retail Sales (YoY) previous 1.90%, expect 4.50%
20:00 US FOMC Statement
20:30 US Bernanke media

Yesterday new highs for PSG, NET1UEPS & RMB

Consensus changes for Aspen, Discover and Harmony to 'hold',  JSE & MTN to 'buy'.

Moon's F&G @ Neutral, so nobody scared yes?  VIX +1.04%

Good luck to us all.

Asian stocks rally after Fed move or rather surprise no move.

Gold 4.31%, Moon's F&G @ 57 indicating 'Greed', wonder how long before we reach pinnacle @100 'Extreme Greed' where we were a year ago?

IGM T40 @ +540

US Initial jobless claims @ 14:30, not that anybody would care today.

Enjoy

 

Today .. (Bloomberg)

"Jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 305,000 in the week ended Sept. 21, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. An official at the agency said there were no special factors and California has caught up with a recent backlog of new applications stemming from a computer system changeover. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 325,000."

Final second quarter GDP remains at 2.5% reported in the second estimate: GDP price deflator revised down to 0.6% from 0.8% (US today)

The Republican-led House voted early Sunday morning to delay President Obama’s health-care law by one year — and to repeal a tax to pay for it — all but assuring the first federal government shutdown in 17 years.

The latest developments increase the odds of at least a partial government shutdown, which would begin on Tuesday. Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have said they won’t accept changes to the health-care law in exchange for temporary government funding. If House Republicans and Senate Democrats cannot agree by the Tuesday-morning deadline, thousands of government employees will be unable to work.

A government shutdown would likely mean the U.S. jobs report for September won’t be released on Friday. The employment data would be the last major labor-market release before the Federal Reserve meets in October to decide whether to slow monetary stimulus.

 Another budget deadline, one with more potential to roil markets than a shutdown, will attract attention ahead of Oct. 17, when the U.S. reaches its debt limit. Obama on Friday urged Congress to raise the debt limit before Oct. 17 and act to avert the shutdown

Certainly doesn't bode well for Monday. (JaDEB, Moneypenny has been assigned yard work by Moonraker - should be there again tomorrow.) 

   

Looks like the 40% odds of a shutdown may now be higher ..