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Author Topic: Today's Outlook  (Read 840706 times)

Orca

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #405 on: November 08, 2013, 08:52:27 pm »
You are right Moon. It was one or the other. Turned out that it was the other. Strange how traders think.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #406 on: November 11, 2013, 08:55:20 am »
Quote from: Orca on November 08, 2013, 08:52:27 pm
Strange how traders think.

They are a strange breed for sure. ;)

A category-5, super typhoon named Haiyan slammed into the Philippines on Friday; Saturday 3 deaths were reported, by today expectations grew to 10 000. Asian Dow & Sensex down between -0.32% and -0.94%, rest of Asia green ranging between +0.21% and +1.30% (Nikkei). 

US ended strong after better than expected eco news, futures red atm, gold @ 1286, WTI @ 95, SAT40 @ +177 atm.

Vodacom results out, rose to R36.69 billion (US$3.6 billion) for the six months ended 30 Sept from R34.43 billion previous year.  Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation R13.22 billion, previous R12.06 billion.  Other side of coin, a new low for DRD.

Consensus changes for OCE & Old Mutual to 'buy', CFR to 'hold'.

No major eco reporting today.

« Last Edit: November 11, 2013, 08:57:54 am by Moneypenny »
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #407 on: November 12, 2013, 09:39:36 am »
11:30 GB CPI

SAT40 just touched red but I'm thinking it will turn back green during day, gold @ 1279.
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Orca

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #408 on: November 12, 2013, 01:10:07 pm »
The TOPI has turned and seems to be headed to the 3950 area.
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gcr

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #409 on: November 12, 2013, 02:35:46 pm »
Yup and the Rand looks like it is on a spiral to the bottom of the well 10.426 to the $ - quite pathetic
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #410 on: November 13, 2013, 08:35:10 am »
T40 @ -305atm ???, gold @ 1272, Asia very red, US ended mixed last night and their futures also red, VIX +2.31%.  Yes, you've guessed it - tapering fears.

12:30 Bank of England Inflation report
13:00 SA Retail Sales

New high for Brait (BAT) & new intra-day high for BTI.  ABL & TRU to 'buy'.

Typhoon death toll expectations change from 10 000 to 1000/1500.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #411 on: November 14, 2013, 09:02:09 am »
oh no, my isp failed and lost my post, not going to redo. Basically its all good, US, Asia, Futures, Tencent.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #412 on: November 15, 2013, 08:31:38 am »
Oooooooooooooooh!
Sugar Pie, Honey Bunch
You know that I love you
I can't help myself
I love you and nobody else.

I'm talking about Federal Reserve Chair nominee, Janet Yellen as she suggested last night that the Fed's bond-buying stimulus will continue until US economy has recovered and job creation could be sustained.  There is a new lady on the block and she is a sweet one.  Her remarks caused US to end positive between 0.18% to 0.48%.  Australia up +0.86% this morning, and in China, Shanghai +2.02%, in Hong Kong, Hang Seng + 1.72%, in Japan, Nikkei +1.88%, and in Korea, Kospi up +1.94%.

All European and US futures up, SAT40 @ +287 atm.

WTI crude 94, Brent 108.54, gold 1288.

New highs yesterday for Invicta, Steinhoff, Atlasa.  Naspers up yesterday +4.35% after Tencent's 5% up in Hong Kong, Tencent up again today in HK +1.80%.


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Aragorn

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #413 on: November 15, 2013, 09:01:40 am »
Quote from: Moneypenny on November 15, 2013, 08:31:38 am
Oooooooooooooooh!
Sugar Pie, Honey Bunch
You know that I love you
I can't help myself
I love you and nobody else.

I'm talking about Federal Reserve Chair nominee, Janet Yellen as she suggested last night that the Fed's bond-buying stimulus will continue until US economy has recovered and job creation could be sustained. 

Me love you long time......
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #414 on: November 18, 2013, 08:34:48 am »
Shanghai up 2.20% in China after new reform details emerged (list of 60 tasks with cut-off date for conclusion 2020) including more profits to Chinese government and couples allowed to have a second child.  Other envisioned reforms pertaining to environment, economy, social justice & harmony, better leadership, building modern market and better relationship between central & local government. Rest of Asia also feeling effects with Hong Kong +2.54%, Nikkei only odd one out @ -0.14%.

US futures negative (-0.06% to -0.10%), SAT40 trading at +142 atm, gold @ 1286, WTI Crude 93$, Brent 107$.

New highs for Atlasa, Steinhoff, Sasol last Friday, new low for GLN @ 5302c.

Consensus changes 14/11 for Naspers to 'buy' & Sasol to 'hold'.

On the economic front, European Trade balance @ 12:00.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #415 on: November 19, 2013, 08:33:17 am »
Asia mixed, Nikkei -0.25%, Shanghai -0.24%, Singapore -0.28%, HangSeng +0.08%, Asia Dow +0.63% US futures green (8:06), SAT40 -72 atm.

WTI Crude 92$, Brent 107,99$, gold 1272$.

New highs for Atlatsa, Pick 'n Pay, Sasol, Mittal, new low GNL @ 5292c.

12:00 Ger ZEW Economic Sentiment
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Moneypenny

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #416 on: November 20, 2013, 07:54:47 am »
We are back to Eskom's precautionary measures. Translation: Publishing rolling blackout schedules & declaring a 'power emergency' yesterday after grid pressure and loss of some of its generating components. 

And continuing with gloomy news I'm sorry to say: Unconfirmed sources indicating that Gauteng's e-tolling will start as soon as 2 Dec, will have clarity after this mornings news conference.

In the US, JP Morgan slammed with a humongous $13 Billion fine to assist home owners after irregularities back in 2008.  To put it into perspective, BP's oil spill fine was $4B, Glaxosmithkline's was $3B.  But Jamie Dimon has proofed himself to be a very tenacious leader, I don't think he is losing too much sleep over this, just another business day for him.    'You read constantly that banks are lobbying regulators and elected officials as if this is inappropriate. We don't look at it that way.' Jamie Dimon ;)

US ended negative, Asia mostly negative atm, SAT40 -1 but trading usually quiet this time of morning due to high spreads, will only get direction 8:30.

Gold @ 1274$, WTI 94, US futures mixed.

Economic reporting today:

11:30 GB MPC Meeting Minutes
15:30 US Core CPI
15:30 US Retail Sales
17:00 US Existing Home Sales
21:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes (driving force for today)

New highs yesterday for Cargo, Sasfin & Steinhoff, new intra-day highs for Sappi & Mittal, new low for GLN @ 5229.


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Moonraker

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #417 on: November 20, 2013, 04:01:40 pm »
Source = Nasdaq

Looks like the partial gov. shutdown had zero effect on cosumer spending.

October retail sales ticked up 0.4% while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%. The prior month's reading was revised to reflect no change (from -0.1%). Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.2% against the expectations of a 0.1% rise. Last month's reading was revised down to indicate growth of 0.3% (from +0.4%).

Separately, October consumer prices slipped 0.1% while the Briefing.com consensus expected no change. Core prices increased 0.1%, below the 0.2% expected by the Briefing.com consensus.

11/20/2013 8:00:51 AM ET
 [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.20. The S&P 500 futures trade one point below fair value amid cautious overseas action.

Reviewing overnight developments:
Asian markets ended on a mixed note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.2%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei -0.3%.
In regional economic data:
Japan's trade deficit widened to JPY1.09 trillion from JPY932 billion (JPY814 billion expected) as exports grew 18.6% year-over-year (16.5% forecast, 11.5% prior) and imports increased 26.1% year-over-year (19.0% consensus, 16.5% last). Meanwhile, the adjusted trade balance narrowed to JPY1.07 trillion from JPY1.13 trillion (JPY0.88 trillion forecast). Also of note, the All Industries Activity Index ticked up 0.4% month-over-month (0.5% prior, 0.3% last).
Australia's MI Leading Index came in at 0.1% (-0.1% last).
New Zealand's input PPI rose 2.2% quarter-over-quarter (0.5% forecast, 0.6% last) while output PPI increased 2.4% quarter-over-quarter (1.0% expected, 1.0% prior).
Looking at news:
Japan's trade deficit was among the worst on record as larger-than-expected energy imports outweighed the benefit of increased exports.
Major European indices hover near their lows. Germany's DAX -0.2%, Great Britain's FTSE -0.4%, and France's CAC -0.4%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -0.6% and Spain's IBEX -1.1%.
Economic data was limited:
Germany's PPI slipped 0.2% month-over-month (0.1% expected, 0.3% prior) while the year-over-year reading fell 0.7% (-0.6% expected, -0.5% last).
Spain's trade deficit widened to EUR2.59 billion from EUR1.80 billion (-EUR2.50 billion expected).
Swiss ZEW Expectations improved to 31.6 from 24.9 (30.0 forecast).
In news:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said her party hopes to finish coalition talks in the middle of next weeks.


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Moonraker

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #418 on: November 20, 2013, 06:49:19 pm »
What a see-saw. Negative rates ? Well for the man in the street in Switzerland they have been in place for some time on current a/c equivalents.
Now the ECB is contemplating negative rates. This shows again the precarious state of the "recovery" in Europe. Truth be told there
has been zero improvement since 2008 and with all the debt creation since, I see bleak times ahead for a very, very long time yet.

Source = Nasdaq

The major averages continue to hold modest gains after being whipsawed by a pair of headlines that had conflicting implications for risk assets. First, stocks jumped to highs after reports out of Europe indicated the European Central Bank will weigh negative deposit rates if more easing is needed. The euro weakened on the news, falling below 1.3500 against the dollar.

It should be noted negative rates have been discussed in recent weeks and just yesterday ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said the central bank could implement negative deposit rates if the 2.0% inflation target remains elusive. However, Mr. Asmussen added he would be 'very, very careful' with regards to deploying the policy tool.

Equities then returned to their earlier levels after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that a strong November jobs report would increase the chances of tapering in December.

Treasuries have regained all of their morning losses, and the 10-yr yield now trades lower by two basis points at 2.70%.

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jaDEB

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Re: Today's Outlook
« Reply #419 on: November 21, 2013, 08:56:53 am »
http://www.bloomberg.com/

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jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it
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