Here is the outlook for the EU posted by a leading bank in Portugal. I have Google translated it so there are some grammar errors.
A cyclical recovery is underway, despite the upheavals and some disillusionment with the progress of the activity in the US and China. However, with regard to the US economy, the second half will show a more dynamic economy, returning to more robust growth rates, accompanied by job creation, able to support the beginning of the normalization of monetary policy process. With regard to China, the structural changes in order to make private consumption the main driver of growth are still under way and apparently the authorities have ample room for maneuver to stimulate domestic demand in case of need, in terms of policy budget both in terms of monetary policy. In the euro zone, the first quarter showed some strength of growth, based mainly in the recovery in consumption and stabilization of investment, albeit with quite disparate behaviors in the various geographies. Unless some disruptor event (mainly resulting from negotiations with Greece), it is anticipated that the cyclical recovery scenario to continue, based on a favorable financial environment € interest rates at minimum levels, financial assets with favorable development - stable oil prices, although above the lows seen earlier in the year.
In the foreign exchange market, the less favorable economic news coming from the US have contributed to the dollar's decline. However, the dominant factor and the market condition has been, without doubt, the uncertainty regarding the outcome of negotiations between the Greek government and creditors.
Despite the market begin to speculate about the reduction in monetary policy stimulus calendar (tapering) the ECB, we believe it is still premature question, before all the uncertainties that prevail.
The sovereign debt market in June recorded a further sharp correction movement - for example, the 10-year Bund implicit rates increased by around 75 basis points in less than two months to 0.86% in early June.
This publication includes an opinion piece in the Portuguese economy, where it is the state of play regarding the evolution of some imbalances, especially the debt of households, businesses and state and external accounts. Moreover refer to a note on the prospective financing of the Portuguese Republic and an article about the situation in Brazil, with a huge economy but difficult times potential, must register a recession in 2015.
