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Author Topic: The Rand  (Read 71580 times)

jaDEB

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #60 on: February 17, 2017, 07:26:51 am »
I have NPN and CCO. Hence the wanting weak rant, also I do not like Happy people, and in my job I fight for work against cheap Chinese imports, thus weak rant help me,   :TU:, sub %$#@ R15.00

I do the 52week challenge, where I have to do something every week which I have not done before. Attached is a Cartoon I did because of that.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 07:39:58 am by jaDEB »
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jaDEB

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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #61 on: February 20, 2017, 10:05:13 am »
Please can we get R10 please
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jaDEB

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #62 on: February 20, 2017, 03:36:02 pm »
Quote from: Thor187 on February 20, 2017, 10:05:13 am
Please can we get R10 please

Jy soek moelikheid nou !!!
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #63 on: February 20, 2017, 03:58:40 pm »
What is the longest time you can go long on Forex?

I mean there's not a lot of guarantees in life, but in the long term the zar will always weaken against the USD.

So a geared position going long for 30 years should yield a interesting result no?
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MoneyChief

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #64 on: February 20, 2017, 04:26:08 pm »
Quote from: Thor187 on February 20, 2017, 03:58:40 pm
What is the longest time you can go long on Forex?

I mean there's not a lot of guarantees in life, but in the long term the zar will always weaken against the USD.

So a geared position going long for 30 years should yield a interesting result no?

Betting money on Forex is an excellent way to lose a lot of money. Been there, got the T-shirt.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #65 on: February 20, 2017, 05:20:03 pm »
Even at R13.00 the zar remains oversold. She may head for R12.00 or less and you would get a margin call.
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #66 on: February 20, 2017, 08:33:59 pm »
Quote from: MoneyChief on February 20, 2017, 04:26:08 pm
Quote from: Thor187 on February 20, 2017, 03:58:40 pm
What is the longest time you can go long on Forex?

I mean there's not a lot of guarantees in life, but in the long term the zar will always weaken against the USD.

So a geared position going long for 30 years should yield a interesting result no?

Betting money on Forex is an excellent way to lose a lot of money. Been there, got the T-shirt.

Is that true for a USD ZAR currency pair @ 20 years?

I am willing to bet anyone the zar will continue to weaker the coming 20 years
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #67 on: February 21, 2017, 10:59:28 am »

Quote
I am willing to bet anyone the zar will continue to weaker the coming 20 years

What you say there, no one will dispute and it is a no brainer but it will only do so after the zar has reached fair value. That could be R11.00 or R12.00 but once reached she will start weakening by the normal 2,5% pa again.
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #68 on: February 21, 2017, 11:32:50 am »
Quote from: Orca on February 21, 2017, 10:59:28 am

Quote
I am willing to bet anyone the zar will continue to weaker the coming 20 years

What you say there, no one will dispute and it is a no brainer but it will only do so after the zar has reached fair value. That could be R11.00 or R12.00 but once reached she will start weakening by the normal 2,5% pa again.

Admittedly I am a noob no a complete amateur when it comes to currencies. How does fair value work? How do I work it out?
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Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #69 on: February 21, 2017, 12:27:12 pm »
I have a slightly different view to Orca. Current fair value ± 12.80 and predict 14.50 by year end (sans any political shenanigans).
Annual 'guaranteed' depreciation due to inflation differential between US and ZA - say close to 4%.

See graph. (Click on image to enlarge)

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MoneyChief

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #70 on: February 21, 2017, 01:19:55 pm »
Quote from: Thor187 on February 20, 2017, 08:33:59 pm

Is that true for a USD ZAR currency pair @ 20 years?

I am willing to bet anyone the zar will continue to weaker the coming 20 years

The USD is currently the world reserve currency, this makes the USD very strong, because everybody holds some of it (important commodities are priced in dollars, like oil). If this changes, the dollar may nose dive quite a bit.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #71 on: February 21, 2017, 02:29:20 pm »
As per Moneyweb about a month ago: The Big Mac Index is a widely used and accurate index for Fair Value. The BM Index shows the ZAR to be fair value at 8.00

This correlates very well with Moons chart. If you extend the average chart inclination prior to when the ZAR became so volatile it would be at 8.00 now.
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #72 on: February 21, 2017, 03:07:05 pm »
Very insightful. Way to complicated so I will just continue to buy bitcoin  8)
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Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #73 on: February 21, 2017, 03:10:42 pm »
What does the Big Mac Index really measure?

(In other words there are too many variables for the index to be really meaningful).

A further huge boost to resource prices might get us closer to Orca's R8.00   :)
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #74 on: February 21, 2017, 03:24:05 pm »
I'm not saying it will get to 8.00 by a long shot. Fin24 BM Index showed the ZAR to be fair value at R5.84 in July last year but the economic growth and political climate has not been factored in.

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index
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