Author Topic: The Rand  (Read 70953 times)

Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #75 on: February 21, 2017, 03:34:08 pm »
I'm not saying it will get to 8.00 by a long shot.
I know.  :)

jaDEB

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #76 on: February 21, 2017, 04:58:18 pm »
Very insightful. Way to complicated so I will just continue to buy bitcoin  8)

what IS your average u paid per coin about? (if I may ask)
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #77 on: February 21, 2017, 05:51:39 pm »
I'm not saying it will get to 8.00 by a long shot. Fin24 BM Index showed the ZAR to be fair value at R5.84 in July last year but the economic growth and political climate has not been factored in.

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index


Okey so in the real world, what does fair value mean? It doesnt appear to be something that is at all possible to attain?
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #78 on: February 21, 2017, 05:58:33 pm »
Very insightful. Way to complicated so I will just continue to buy bitcoin  8)

what IS your average u paid per coin about? (if I may ask)

I am too scared to disclose it because when I tell people I paid about $5 - $8 for it as a novelty back in 2011 most think its BS others get nasty jealous/jaded and now it is an essential part of my retirement plan as you can imagine. Granted I did not buy 100 bitcoins, regrettably... I might add.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #79 on: February 21, 2017, 09:02:37 pm »
Quote
Okey so in the real world, what does fair value mean? It doesnt appear to be something that is at all possible to attain?

With FX it is difficult to say and that is why the hamburger index was invented.  :)
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #80 on: February 22, 2017, 08:28:14 am »
Quote
Okey so in the real world, what does fair value mean? It doesnt appear to be something that is at all possible to attain?

With FX it is difficult to say and that is why the hamburger index was invented.  :)

Don't be offended, but so fair value is basically useless?

Since I cannot go to absa and say hey! I am going to murica please give me 100 fair value worth's dolla please.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #81 on: February 22, 2017, 06:51:08 pm »
Forget about fast food and look at it this way:

SA has a trade surplus. ie...Exports exceed our imports. So foreigners are buying SA products more than what we are buying from them.

This is good for the ZAR as they are buying ZAR via products. The ZAR will keep strengthening as long as we have a trade surplus. The revival of the commodity sector (SA is commodity driven) is the main driving force of the ZAR increasing in value.

Negative local political news will drive the ZAR down but as long as we have a trade surplus it will eventually regain lost ground depending on the severity of the news.

This can get complicated when comparing to currencies other than the USD.
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PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #82 on: February 22, 2017, 08:57:55 pm »
Forget about fast food and look at it this way:

SA has a trade surplus. ie...Exports exceed our imports. So foreigners are buying SA products more than what we are buying from them.

This is good for the ZAR as they are buying ZAR via products. The ZAR will keep strengthening as long as we have a trade surplus. The revival of the commodity sector (SA is commodity driven) is the main driving force of the ZAR increasing in value.

Negative local political news will drive the ZAR down but as long as we have a trade surplus it will eventually regain lost ground depending on the severity of the news.

This can get complicated when comparing to currencies other than the USD.

That I understand, but I feel that is a flawed economy, because... Correct me if I am wrong, but does this not basically mean we export our raw materials for next to nothing and then we buy back the expensive refined and processed products?! Thus we will never make money as exporting to buy back the end product will always be more expensive.

Should government not start creating companies that can use our raw resources to manufacture products we can sell to other countries instead of other countries buying our raw resources for bottom price and then they manufacture products and we end up paying 10 times more to buy those products which we could've manufacture our self?
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #83 on: February 22, 2017, 10:15:45 pm »
What TF? Here is my reason for not exchanging my money to USD. I did warn you.
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PirateJack

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #84 on: February 24, 2017, 10:19:00 am »
@Orca what do you think of my reasoning above? Am I completely missing the point or am I on the right track?

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #85 on: February 24, 2017, 11:10:04 am »
@Orca what do you think of my reasoning above? Am I completely missing the point or am I on the right track?

I can't find your post on this thread.
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PirateJack

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #86 on: February 24, 2017, 01:00:34 pm »
@Orca what do you think of my reasoning above? Am I completely missing the point or am I on the right track?

I can't find your post on this thread.

Oh no. My mistake, this is the investor challenge forum I am in another thread with a similar name on taptalk I mistook this one for that one.

Might as well post it here. Is a strong rand not better? Fuel remains one of the universal inputs which affect the price of almost all goods. It affects the spending power of consumers broadly, too, especially at the lower income levels where taxi fares can cause real headaches for many people.

So, while the rand strength may be affecting exports, it is substantially contributing to stable fuel prices as oil approaches the US$60 per barrel mark; imports, too, become more affordable not? Should SA not strive to rather bring down the cost-to-consumer giving people more buying power and thus new business will flourish and exports will naturally continue to grow we have the raw materials that is not going anywhere and the demand will continue to go up so they will pay the higher price as the rand strengthens a sort of SA first policy.

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #87 on: February 24, 2017, 02:01:18 pm »
You are quite right Jack. A trade surplus is good for the ZAR. Great for Industrials, Resources, employment figures etc.
It cannot last though as exports will decline as the ZAR strengthens. At some stage foreigners will see SA goods as too expensive and the Trade surplus will ease off and continue as a trade balance before it goes into a deficit.

I am by no means an economist and I loath the subject but inflation also comes to play as it affects interest rates that affects the trade balance that ......

Talking about "economist", Chris Hart has eaten his hat twice now. Last year he stated the ZAR will reach R20 by year end (2016). Well, I suppose we were all caught out with the revival of commodities.
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MoneyChief

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #88 on: February 28, 2017, 02:48:03 pm »
That I understand, but I feel that is a flawed economy, because... Correct me if I am wrong, but does this not basically mean we export our raw materials for next to nothing and then we buy back the expensive refined and processed products?! Thus we will never make money as exporting to buy back the end product will always be more expensive.

Should government not start creating companies that can use our raw resources to manufacture products we can sell to other countries instead of other countries buying our raw resources for bottom price and then they manufacture products and we end up paying 10 times more to buy those products which we could've manufacture our self?

Not all exports are resources/commodities. I work in the service sector and we export intellectual property for vast sums of money. The service sector is by far the largest sector in SA and I suspect a lot of trade is in IP.

PlatinumWealth.co.za

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #89 on: February 28, 2017, 04:33:55 pm »
That I understand, but I feel that is a flawed economy, because... Correct me if I am wrong, but does this not basically mean we export our raw materials for next to nothing and then we buy back the expensive refined and processed products?! Thus we will never make money as exporting to buy back the end product will always be more expensive.

Should government not start creating companies that can use our raw resources to manufacture products we can sell to other countries instead of other countries buying our raw resources for bottom price and then they manufacture products and we end up paying 10 times more to buy those products which we could've manufacture our self?

Not all exports are resources/commodities. I work in the service sector and we export intellectual property for vast sums of money. The service sector is by far the largest sector in SA and I suspect a lot of trade is in IP.

We need that genius here! Dammit.
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