Author Topic: The Rand  (Read 70950 times)

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #30 on: August 09, 2016, 10:19:49 pm »
I'm by no means blowing my own trumpet here but the people that have sent their money to the US are now feeling the pinch.
This is not bad as the ZAR will eventually reverse.
In the mean time, I will continue to invest in SA as an emerging market. EM's are future Emerged Markets.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Patrick

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2016, 08:18:38 am »
R13.37/$ now!

Part of me is cursing my missed opportunity, but with the big picture it's not too bad. Half my money was in DIVTRX, it's still doing fine, the other half was in STXIND which has been hit by the strong rand. I also remember how I felt last year after Nenegate. I was so down in the dumps, I thought if only I could've sold yesterday... if it ever gets back to those levels I'm out of here. That level was R14.50, I moved my money at R14.30, so I can't really complain. Dawie Roodt also said he'd buy $ at R14.50 and buy rand at R16.50. He's an expert. Apparently.

Now what's changed. Let's see, the JSE has owned up to making a massive screw up. There's no record inflows, it was all a computer error. The reserve bank has said growth won't be 0.6% anymore, it's now 0% yet the rand gets stronger  :wtf:

The only thing I can confirm, is that nobody has the faintest clue what is going to happen going forward. Junk status in December? Possibly? Probably? Who will win the fight for control of the ANC, Cyril? Or maybe Zuma will get even stronger and get rid of the Gauteng leadership ensuring that he can pick his successor, or even keep his seat as ANC president.

I'll stick with the statistics in my investing. You can't pick shares and beat an index. You can't pick an economy and beat the global average. The rand should depreciate by the inflation rate differential.

I'm sad I didn't move my money at the bottom, but I still earn in Rand, so I'll be using the stronger rand to keep investing in my low cost global fund. The Rand has just given me a raise in dollars to do that with.

conradl

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #32 on: August 10, 2016, 10:08:36 am »
I'm by no means blowing my own trumpet here but the people that have sent their money to the US are now feeling the pinch.
This is not bad as the ZAR will eventually reverse.
In the mean time, I will continue to invest in SA as an emerging market. EM's are future Emerged Markets.

I sent money to the US twice last year, the first time at R11.30, second time at R14.20 (same as you Patrick). I'm still up 20% in the stocks I bought. I'll be buying more USD if the Rand strengthens a bit more (ie if under R13) and investing in ETF's. I forget the exchange rate that I bought the USD for because you just cause yourself unnecessary pain thinking about what the Rand could have done. I just want more bang for my buck.

I measure my wealth in the big three (EUR, USD, GBP) and so far I been better off investing offshore than local.

Nivek

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #33 on: August 10, 2016, 12:11:53 pm »
Here's a 10 year chart of the rand dollar. For a long time it was pretty flat except for 2008, but then in 2011 it just started climbing steadily. Anybody know why?

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #34 on: August 10, 2016, 12:23:06 pm »
EM's went out of favor at that time. They came back in favor about 9 months ago.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Patrick

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #35 on: August 10, 2016, 03:31:19 pm »
I forget the exchange rate that I bought the USD for because you just cause yourself unnecessary pain thinking about what the Rand could have done. I just want more bang for my buck.

I measure my wealth in the big three (EUR, USD, GBP) and so far I been better off investing offshore than local.

Well said Conrad, I also promised my wife I'd do the same. The rate reached a level where I could convert and have a number in $'s I was happy with, so it's time to move on!

Any strength from now is more bang for buck as you said.

Govprof

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #36 on: August 11, 2016, 04:37:48 pm »
I found this interesting article on Biznews written by Brian Kantor from Investec. Puts some of the gains in the rand into perspective.

http://www.biznews.com/sa-investing/2016/08/11/brian-kantor-local-lekker-rand-gains-declining-sa-specific-risks/

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yozzi

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2016, 01:42:16 pm »
With the Rand at these levels firstly where do you think it will bottom?

Would you be selling your STXIND/CORONATION ETF's to buy either dollars, sterling or euros in order to capitalise on the Rand weakening by year end or is it too much of a gamble?

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #38 on: August 23, 2016, 02:11:07 pm »
The ZAR may return to loosing +- 2,5% pa against the USD again unless some severe political events happen in SA.
Emerging markets like SA are growing markets. Developed markets like the US are already developed so in my view, there will be much more growth for SA than there will be for the US. Long term charts are proof of this.

Some 2 years ago, I posted a question on a UK investment forum Citywire asking what ETF in the UK has a history of 20% + returns. I got laughed at. "Forget it" they replied...."impossible".
At that stage the STXIND was returning 32% on average over many years.

The choice is yours as you may have different plans ahead like Patrick.

I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #39 on: August 23, 2016, 06:03:36 pm »
Fin24
//The rand has strengthened below key resistance at R/$13.50 and is now comfortably below the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

The rand’s momentum indicators are not confirming the rand’s new lows versus the dollar and therefore a sustained break below R/$13.20 is unlikely.

The rand must break above R/$13.60 to indicate that the bottom has been reached.//

It is now 13.80.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

yozzi

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2016, 06:16:06 pm »
Orca, my thinking has been that the STXIND YTD return has been very low but a few factors have contributed to that and I was looking at selling my STXIND shares to either buy sterling or buy shares on the FTSE over a short period of time allowing the Rand to weaken again which I'm sure it will given time

conradl

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2016, 07:51:26 pm »
Thank you cANCer for making me a quick 2% on the money i took offshore yesterday. Whew! :'(

yozzi

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2016, 10:26:19 am »
Fin24
//The rand has strengthened below key resistance at R/$13.50 and is now comfortably below the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

The rand’s momentum indicators are not confirming the rand’s new lows versus the dollar and therefore a sustained break below R/$13.20 is unlikely.

The rand must break above R/$13.60 to indicate that the bottom has been reached.//

It is now 13.80.


The Rand is way over R14/$ now so would you say the bottom has been reached and it will get weaker from here?

Also, if given the choice would you buy dollars, sterling or probably less of a choice, euros?

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2016, 05:18:43 pm »
Impossible to call. Is the current weakening of the ZAR due to Zuma/Hawks and Gordhan saga? Will the ZAR continue to decline until that saga is done and dusted then gain to sub 13 again?
We must also take into account that talk by the FED about increasing interest rates has given the USD a boost and the ZAR has not really weakened as much as it appears to have done. The ZAR stood still today but the USD gained 1,4%.

I would not buy GBP or EUR due to the uncertainty of Brexit and the migrant crises. The USD and YEN would be safer in my personal view.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 05:28:34 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #44 on: August 29, 2016, 10:07:51 pm »
The ZAR's weakest link is Zuma. Zapiro will get much flack now.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 10:09:47 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.