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Author Topic: The Rand  (Read 72868 times)

Hamster

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2016, 03:58:52 pm »
Quote from: gcr on February 16, 2016, 02:39:01 pm
Quote from: Orca on February 16, 2016, 01:50:15 pm
I read somewhere today that the ZAR could quite possibly strengthen to below R13 or even R10 to the USD. I think it was Moneyweb.
Yes - I read that as well - but it was issued by a financial advisor or an "economist" or an actuary or a politician  :LHST: :LHST: So no real credence there :'(

Roodt?
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gcr

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2016, 04:33:04 pm »
Quote from: Hamster on February 16, 2016, 03:58:52 pm
Quote from: gcr on February 16, 2016, 02:39:01 pm
Quote from: Orca on February 16, 2016, 01:50:15 pm
I read somewhere today that the ZAR could quite possibly strengthen to below R13 or even R10 to the USD. I think it was Moneyweb.
Yes - I read that as well - but it was issued by a financial advisor or an "economist" or an actuary or a politician  :LHST: :LHST: So no real credence there :'(

Roodt?

Nope not him he doesn't want to be shot again >:D
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Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2016, 02:40:17 pm »
Quote from: Moonraker on November 30, 2015, 04:37:48 pm
If commodities recover strongly (unlikely, these cycles last a very long time), then there might be a temporary uptick. But we still have the Zuma/Davies version of economics, plus inflation differential means the Rand will not get lucky for any sustained period. Historical Xchange rate vs. $ tells it all and I certainly wouldn't bet against the long term trend.

. CHECK
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MoneyChief

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2016, 12:20:38 pm »
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #19 on: May 06, 2016, 07:47:50 pm »
The NFP result does not affect markets as much as it used to a year ago but it does affect the currencies. This may only last for 2 to 3 trading days.
The poor results caused the exodus from the USD perhaps due to the expectation that the FED will now not raise the interest rates next month.
This may also mean that the EM's will come back in favour to an extent but time will tell as USA bad news is bad for all markets.
The chart below is typical of FX news trading where panic sets in and sends the pair in the wrong direction. The pro's and con's are then mulled over and then clever money climbs in.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2016, 09:05:11 pm »
Even at this 13,8 rate, the ZAR remains oversold. The USD is overbought as well. My prediction of 13,7 is taking longer than I expected due to the hiccups made by Zuma, Hawks and Brexit but is still on course and as long as EM's stay in favour, the ZAR could well go lower than I expected.

The popular Big Mac Index shows that the ZAR could be worth 5,85 but that is a bit far fetched and where will the ZAR start to turn back after 9 months of gains is beyond me. It has momentum to go further though.

The "experts" say 17 at year end and Chris Hart is calling 20. Have they ever been correct? I am by no means a financial person but I see sub 13,7 soon.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2016, 09:44:13 pm by Orca »
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2016, 02:40:15 pm »
The ZAR did not embarrass me and today she reached my 13,7 target. 
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gcr

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2016, 04:34:56 pm »
Still hoping it will go closer to R12/$
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Patrick

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2016, 04:47:29 pm »
If the poor election results cause a Zuma recall you might get that gcr.

Orca, now that it's at your target will you be doing anything or is it just a psychological thing?
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2016, 05:23:03 pm »
No P. It was just me drawing silly lines on a chart of the USD/ZAR. The competition with myself is over now and I will just watch it.

« Last Edit: August 04, 2016, 05:50:43 pm by Orca »
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Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2016, 05:37:27 pm »
Rand euphoria will in my opinion not last. I think ANC will form coalitions with EFF who have gained more since 2011 percentage wise than the DA. So it's up to the ANC, will they move more towards the redistributive policies of the EFF or embrace the more market friendly DA policies. Both ANC and EFF are anti 'white monopoly capital' etc.
Of course if such a coalition would happen, they will screw up to such an extent that DA will gain even more come 2019.
Z. will reshuffle his cabinet - let's see what happens.
My year end R/$ est. is ± 15 unless resources really shoot the lights out. But we will be downgraded.
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Orca

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2016, 06:41:12 pm »
I agree to disagree. The ZAR shot up over the 14 mark after the NFP results but she proved her resilience by gaining most of it back within hours. This is proof enough for me that the ZAR will still see 12 soon and the election results will edge her on.

The EFF asked it's supporters who it should go into a coalition with and when I last looked it was 69% for the DA and 16% for the ANC. Even the EFF now trusts the DA over the ANC as the DA can no longer be seen as a white party due to the volumes of black supporters that are obviously in its fold.
I don't trust Malema but I'm sure he will do what his supporters want. He is clever in that respect.
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Patrick

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2016, 09:21:47 pm »
I think it all tests with how the ANC respond to these losses. If Zuma stays and Gauteng tales the fall the rand will fall too. If Zuma goes we could see R12 something again.

It's hard to tell at the moment where we are headed at the moment.

As for the poll, it wasn't quite an eff pool, just a Twitter poll. I voted on it for the DA coalition, and I imagine every other DA Twitter user did the same!
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Moonraker

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #28 on: August 09, 2016, 04:43:12 pm »
Holy s*** My Rand hedge stocks. £ is even worse.

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jaDEB

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Re: The Rand
« Reply #29 on: August 09, 2016, 06:41:40 pm »
Same FFS ....  :wall:
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jaDEB

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