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Hi gcr

Yes, I use it as a trading portfolio, and yes I am turning a profit. But the Perfect Portfolio is really not just designed to do trades.

It should guide you on a daily basis, in the direction in which the market is moving, and in which way to steer your portfolio.
Let me give an example. The Perfect Portfolio I gave on the 11th of April made 7,5% to date, and the Top40 made 4%. The PP (Perfect Portfolio) outperformed the Top40 by 87%.

The 15 April PP did 4,7% until today, and the Top40 did 1,3%. Outperforming the Top40 by 250%.
The 20 April PP did 2,1% until today, and the Top40 did 0,3%. Outperforming the Top40 by 582%.

Every Perfect Portfolio since then has outperformed the Top40 and will keep on doing it, given some time. It will always recognize a share with the most upside (or downside) potential, and the best time to buy (sell) it.

Every PP the last few weeks has been a different portfolio, but they were the best stocks to have at that specific date. That is why I believe, you can never have the perfect portfolio, but you can strive to have it.

On the downgrading issue, I agree that banks could be in for the worst. At the moment they will probably recover and crash on the day the downgrading happens (if it happens). 

I am not too concerned about the downgrading, as the system (all the indicator and triggers) will recognize overvalued shares and trend changes, and I will adjust my holdings accordingly.

See attachments

Gcr - I believe that this should and could definitely be used with a medium/long term portfolio.

I have already made a spread sheet that works with longer term holdings. Unfortunately that spread sheet has some sensitive formula's that I currently use, but I could make one later for everyone.

It basically takes your current portfolio and matches it against the perfect portfolio and suggests the largest deviations as actions. You can set the deviation to the % that suits you, as well as (your port)/(PP) ratio. But I will get a simple one ready soon.

If you should have a share that you have for 2 years and don't want to sell it, you could take a short position for a portion of the shares that you need downside protection on. This helps with your tax benefit by not selling the share and only paying Capital gains tax. I hope it's still 3 years.

The prices and entry points for most deals are usually on the previous days closing prices, and that is usually very good entry points to buy at. The whole system compares each share relative to the other to find value. Trades don't have to be in the market for a long time, but the criteria can be set higher for the next deal, as your cash portion becomes lower and you have time to wait for the best deal.

I agree with you on different levels for your orders. If you want to get into a new share and you want 6% exposure. Buy 2% at the current level, 2% at a 3% discount and the last 2% at a 6% discount (especially with longer term views). With the Perfect Portfolio it does work too, but too a lesser effect.

I got a lot of work, but hope to get the longer term comparison spread sheet out soon.





 
   

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Who was your money on? ...... Did you really think the TOP40 stood a chance? Although not the absolute best of the 470 SA funds, for the last week,  and only falling to the KIO heavy resource funds.
But for the nine trading days until yesterday's close........the (11 April) Perfect Portfolio has gained 7,1% in the last 9 days, outperforming the Top40 by 116% (3,3%gain) and outperforming  468 funds  on their best monthly gain! Only Old Mutual's Mid and Small Cap fund could do 7,29% in the past month and the Perfect Portfolio done it in 9 days.  Every Perfect Portfolio since 11 April has outperformed the TOP40, and each looking a little different than the one before.  The 15 April PP  (Perfect Portfolio)for instance, has gained 4% vs. the 0,6% of the TOP40, outperforming it by 525%.

So will this continue or just a flash in the pan? The Perfect Portfolio should outperform the index given some time. The 11 April  PP, will probably outperform the index for the next 3 months and maybe the next 3 years, but it will become outdated with the latest PP. It needs constant adjusting and steered in the best future direction for your investment.

So what does the latest Perfect Portfolio look like........ a little different from the 11 April portfolio.  Anglo, Anglo Gold, Exxaro, Kumba Iron Ore and ARI have all lost their shine and does not offer any value in the longer term, and should be nearly 0% of your portfolio currently. (Although KIO is defying gravity at the moment)

Currently Banks, Construction and some Retailers are most favoured. PPC has been moving up and has now had the top spot for quite a few days, and has a lot of upside potential.  Unfortunately or luckily, I only monitor 45 shares and most of the construction shares are outside the top50. I dare not think how much better the Perfect Portfolio would be, picking from 150 shares, and only selecting the best of the best.

See below or attached the portfolio's in mention, and if there are Fund Managers that need an assistant, and want to improve the timing on trades, I am all yours.  Hopefully I haven't  wasted the last 25 years on this model  for nothing.

Enjoy the weekend and may all your teams win :-)

Regards


Ps. I have improved from 38th to 17th in the Investor trader competition, if you would like to have a look at my current holdings visit   http://www.shareforum.co.za/competition/com_rankings.php?year=current    username (Pilot)

See Darkside says there is no Perfect portfolio....     , he obviously reads the heading and stops ..