Author Topic: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?  (Read 32075 times)

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2014, 01:54:39 pm »
A great Android app to download is "Japanese Candle". Try it. Get it from Play Store.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2014, 01:56:51 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2014, 08:08:12 pm »
Fist things first - ABL had an engulfing candle, that did not follow through. As a matter of fact, it gapped down the next day.  Gapping down is pretty serious on a share. We see gapping down often on futures, but on shares it's like someone is on a mission.

Now one of two things can happen.


1. They test the middle of the body of the engulfing candle cause that is the first support point and then go up or
2. The engulfing gets eaten up and the market does go and test the hammer.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2014, 08:44:50 pm »
Naspers being what they are, oh and by the way, I worked for them for 7 years, seeing that gap I immediately asked myself who is dragging Naspers down. Tencent is the culprit it seems. But that is beside the point. Let's look at the technicals.

I see a possible island reversal. I also see that they jumped right into the support line of a Shooting Star of 17 Jan's. Dem that was beautiful! hehehe. Should have taken a long at that support line. But I guess you can't scalp shares.

I also see that they jumped a hammer of 3 March. Pretty hectic to jump hammers. Who's trying to drive the price down or have they already succeeded? What I expect is for price to go and test the bottom of the 3 March hammer but it would have to push past the top of Friday's hammer first. If you did buy on Friday, be careful.

Up till September last year, all the green candles were a good size, but then suddenly they all became small candles, like someone was throwing on the brakes and the red candles became longer candles! Yes here and there is a longish green candle, but was that just greed pushing up the price? Hmmm that would have created warning signs for me. Small and long candles show eagerness or the lack there of, in a share's direction.

There is something wrong with this share. Why did it gap down so much when it reached the super high? Why not just pullback slowly and go and test a few lower points and then go up?

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2014, 07:53:47 am »
Oh I almost forgot. Orca on the Reuters chart that you posted, Friday's candle shows as a Doji. On the SBK chart, Friday's candle shows as a Hammer. Doji's are "can't make your mind up" situations and hammers form at support points. So once again I warn. Be careful of what you read from the Reuters chart.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2014, 08:07:59 am »
NPN seems to be struggling to get above it's hammer of Friday. Are they going to jump the hammer and then jump right into the next hammer's bottom?
ABL - Sideways spring - I would wait for a breakout above R10.60 but even better is a breakout above R10.85 :whistle:

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2014, 04:10:27 pm »
 I'm so ready to short this one, but will wait until the end of this month after dividend, also depending on Grandma Yellen tonight. 

Opinions anybody?

« Last Edit: March 19, 2014, 04:20:54 pm by Moneypenny »

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2014, 04:45:36 pm »
This one on the other hand, no need to wait for a short, just go for it.  {Talking to myself - not suggesting anything to anyone. O:-)}

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2014, 07:43:25 pm »
BGA - Formed a Doji today, closed a gap and the top of the gap is resistance + it's the bottom of a hammer. 14418 is a wall of worry. Don't know if you should short this one yet. A close under 14168, I would short yes.


Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2014, 08:52:55 am »
Thank you for input Sp.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2014, 08:41:33 pm »
Moneypenny, my pleasure.

I'm having a hardtime with BGA charts tonight. On SBK we have Dragonfly Doji and on Reuters and FT.com we have a Hangingman. I don't know which is correct. I need reliable charts. :wall:

Let's assume it's a Hangingman. What I have noticed in SA on futures, a hangingman is seen as a reversal, but in the states a hangingman is seen as a lower price rejection. But we in SA so lets assume the possibility of a reversal. Wait for confirmation.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2014, 11:40:34 am by Snakepit »

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2014, 08:46:20 pm »
MSM - Had an engulfing candle yesterday to go down, but threw on breaks today with a Highwave candle. Shorting has not been confirmed!

Where a Doji is a signal of indecision, a Highwave candle is seen as balance between the bears and bulls with a very slight edge towards the color of the candle. Once again, on futures I take note of Highwave candles as they do cause a change in direction.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2014, 11:44:10 am by Snakepit »

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2014, 09:06:33 pm »
NPN - According to FT.com chart, they closed right against resistance. Can they push threw on Monday or are they going to sink back? There is a big support zone under them with a hammer. If they don't push threw, I suspect they will fall back to that support zone. It was serious support in January and February.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2014, 11:37:42 am by Snakepit »

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2014, 11:56:47 am »
Just to add some clarification on technical analysis. Guys remember that we work on probabilities. 80% Of the time the candle signal is valid, but it is that 20% that messes up the works. There is not a single candle signal that is 100% reliable. Wish there was. I would have been a billionaire!!! :LHST:

I have see a hammer get eaten up and spit out with the next candle and hammers are pretty reliable. It hits your stops and make them fly all over the place like shatterproof glass. It rips the gore out of your heart and there is nothing, absolutely nothing you can do about it. :'(

That is why futures traders are use to taking knocks. As long as we make far more than what we lose. :whistle:

Now, with permission, if you are interested in learning more about candles and futures from SA okes, go and check out http://www.realchartist.com/. No demmit, I don't get money for this! I am sending you to a place of knowledge. Realchartist is down here in Cape Town and not in some overseas location. A bunch of local guys and girls. 

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2014, 05:58:47 pm »
As I don't trade anymore, I only use signals and chart lines that show trend reversals for longer term for entry mainly. Then look for gaps that might get filled to aid me in my decision.
It's good to get to know Snakepit's shorter term signals especially for me that lives monthly off my investments and need to time my sales.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2014, 08:22:56 am »
MSM - Had an engulfing candle yesterday to go down, but threw on breaks today with a Highwave candle. Shorting has not been confirmed!

Good call Sp