Author Topic: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?  (Read 18638 times)

Snakepit

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Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« on: March 07, 2014, 07:51:48 am »
They say knowledge is power. I mentioned that some forum members are "strong" on technical analysis. You can place your chart in this thread and we will give comments about what we see on your chart.

DISCLAIMER!! We do not at anytime say that you should buy a share based on our analysis.  Don't be silly. We do not say that technical analysis is the alpha and omega. We do say that it has it's place in analyzing what to buy and when. Do your home work. We just want to help you make a more informed decision.

By placing a chart in this thread you agree to and understand the above. Is that clear?

Specifications:
1. It must be a candlestick chart. Green and red candlestick charts are the best. The patterns we analyze are in the candles. Next to reading the ticker tape of price, candles is the best.
2. The shorter the time frame, the better, as patterns appear in an hour chart that you might not see in a daily chart.

Now let's see if we can help you make a million bucks!

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2014, 08:06:46 am »
He-he, I like your impromptu disclaimer. Good idea.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2014, 08:25:17 am »
Ja while typing the first line, a thought popped into my head - what if someone goes and buys a million shares based on our analysis and the share takes a nose dive? Let's face it, shares, cfd's, futures, they all pretty risky items to trade. Maybe shares are less risky, but they all still have a risk component.

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2014, 07:47:50 pm »
ABL. The first one here. Coronation obviously can see fundamentals here that made them pick ABL so maybe for long term it is good but here is a chart.
She is trading in a down channel with no reversal signal as yet and has been doing that for a long time now.
That Gap left behind is of no use as traders will not trade it up to there and haven't done so for yonks. The share price is too low for traders to be interested. Perhaps she will keep that small support she is on now.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2014, 07:53:43 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2014, 09:13:59 pm »
Okay what I see on SBK's chart.

A resistance (ceiling) point was formed on 12 Dec. Price cut it came back to test it and failed. That ceiling was tested twice and both times price could not get through. Remember that price R10.90
The hammer - formed on 14 Feb (R9.37), now that is the important one. I expect that hammer to be tested to see if it is solid. I would not buy this share at this stage, but when we hit that hammer, if we do, I would keep a very close eye on it. Yes as you mentioned, we are on small support, but we so close to that hammer. Why not go and give it a poke, even if it's just a long tail on a candle! Also take note that R9.00 was very big resistance in 2001 and 2002. It is now support and that is where that hammer ended at R9.06. On SBK today ended in a Gravestone Doji with higher price rejection and that is why I think the market want to go and test that hammer. So let's see what happens.



ORCA, I notice something. I compare the Standard Bank chart to the Reuters chart. SBK shows a big gap 8 November to 11 November. Reuters does not reflect it at all. It was a massive price drop of almost 5 rand. Not good when you get conflicting charts. However both charts show the hammer.

I see a head and shoulder pattern on the Reuters chart but I don't see it on the SBK chart. Will have to investigate which is more reliable.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2014, 09:43:07 pm »
Wonder if Coronation bought it just after that previous hammer. Would make sense. But this share takes months to go anywhere.

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2014, 09:24:23 am »
Daily chart.

Now please, elaborate on the 'hammer'?


Edit:
No worries, figured it out:  hammer is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, (14th Feb) 1 candle, long lower wick, short body at top with no/little upper wick.
And inverse would be ‘hanging man’ or bearish reversal pattern, 1 candle, found in up-trend, long lower wick, short body at top with little or no upper wick.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 10:16:02 am by Moneypenny »

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2014, 02:23:49 pm »
Ja Moneypenny, that's the one. Big gap. So I have to assume that the Reuters charts have a glitch!

I also noticed on Tuesday that EMI was showing a hammer on Reuters, but the next day it was.... "gone". Ja I know it sounds crazy. But if an airlines can lose a boeing, who am I to say that  a hammer can't disappear?

Moneypenny

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2014, 05:16:07 pm »
What was the cause of the gap at that time, I wasn't following ABL then but I know there was an unsecured lending issue?

If yes, then I guess it will take a long time to fill that gap, even with days like today with a 4.9% up?

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2014, 05:51:08 pm »
Ja Moneypenny, that's the one. Big gap. So I have to assume that the Reuters charts have a glitch!

I also noticed on Tuesday that EMI was showing a hammer on Reuters, but the next day it was.... "gone". Ja I know it sounds crazy. But if an airlines can lose a boeing, who am I to say that  a hammer can't disappear?

My chart is Reuters and it shows there. I know that sometimes Reuters shows wrong info for CML. Red candle instead of green for the day.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2014, 06:04:13 pm »
What was the cause of the gap at that time, I wasn't following ABL then but I know there was an unsecured lending issue?

If yes, then I guess it will take a long time to fill that gap, even with days like today with a 4.9% up?

The mere fact that it is an old gap says that traders are not interested in trading it. That gap will close with normal growth and will not be a Resistance level when eventually reached. Just ignore it.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2014, 09:25:34 pm »
Orca, no you confused. The chart you posted shows the May month gap. The one we talking about is the 8 November gap. Moneypennies chart also shows the Novemebre gap.

On the issue of gaps - I beg to differ. Gaps always form R/S points. If a gap is under price, it's support. Above price it's resistance. Based on my experience and unfortunately it is based on futures trading, 50 points into a gap is always first resistance if the gap is above you. Steve Nison and the big candle traders including the Japanese, they all love gaps when trading shares. But to prove this, we should go back in time and investigate what happens around gaps on SA shares.

Aragorn

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2014, 08:38:22 am »
Orca, no you confused. The chart you posted shows the May month gap. The one we talking about is the 8 November gap. Moneypennies chart also shows the Novemebre gap.
Nov gap caused buy a rights issue, effectively diluted the share price. So it's not a gap that would be generally closed by traders.
Quote
The Rights Offer will consist of an offer of 685 281 693 new ABIL ordinary shares (â??Rights Offer Sharesâ?ť)
at a subscription price of 800 cents per Rights Offer Share. The subscription price is at a discount of
38.72% to the theoretical ex-rights price of an ABIL share of 1305 cents on 30 October 2013. The
subscription price represents 92% of the tangible net asset value per ABIL share before the rights offer
and 98% of the equivalent number after the rights offer. Rights Offer Shares will be issued to qualifying
shareholders in the ratio of 84 (eighty four) Rights Offer Shares for every 100 (one hundred) ABIL Shares
held on the record date for the Rights Offer, being close of business on Friday, 15 November 2013
("Record Date"). Fractions of Rights Offer entitlements will not be allotted and each qualifying
shareholderâ??s Rights Offer entitlement will be rounded to the nearest whole number in this regard (unless
a qualified shareholder is entitled to less than 0.5 of a Rights Offer share, in which case the entitlement
will be rounded down to zero).

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Snakepit

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2014, 08:48:27 am »
Thanks Aragorn for that information. It will be interesting to see what price does with a non price created gap.

Orca

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Re: Technical Analysis - Maybe the "techies" can help you?
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2014, 10:09:17 am »
What about this gap on NPN that was overshot today?
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.