I fully subscribe to Orca's above piece and only a decision should be taken once these two speeches are concluded.
However the ANC government are past masters at saying what they intend doing yet get no further than lying on some shelf - see NDP
Gordhan is up against two other communists in cabinet Davies and Patel and he has "the blade" to deal with as well, so I don't hold out much hope that Gordhan is going to get the latitude to change policy, which is so desperately needed. On the matter of "Feesmustfall" one already sees that the government has mouthed off that there will be no increases in 2016 (hardly a shining light for feesmustfall) and has set up a commission to look into university fees, with a conclusion date sometime after August this year. This is the start because next we will have parents stating that they don't want to pay school fees and yet another mass action party will be held.
I also don't know how Gordhan is going to address the issue of grants and old age pensions because government raided their contingency account to pay public sector salary increases, so they have no money. With falling tax receipts the government only has 2 choices 1) increase tax thresholds and brackets by a minimum of 4% to meet future needs or 2) borrow more money. Once 2 happens the World Bank will step in and we will without a shadow of a doubt we will get a junk bond rating and end up like Greece, Russia, Brazil et al.
Regrettably the government has looked to China to be their saviour which is indeed diabolical for this country as it is simply one way traffic where we import more than we export to them. They will end up paying for dams and whatever infrastructure that this ANC government requires and they will fund it, so ultimately the Chinese will colonise the country and as things are going the rest of Africa to boot.
So do I see a rah rah speech from Gordhan - not really, there is only one positive about SONA and the budget speech - both are happening ahead of elections in May
