The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Orca on December 10, 2015, 08:01:08 pm
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Today the STXIND was up by 1.6% while the DIVTRX was down by 4.7%.
Some may think why this happened as the two have been following each other trend wise with the DIVTRX doing somewhat better over the past year and a half and now the sudden downfall of the DIVTRX.
The 2 ETF's hold different stocks in their portfolios. The STXIND is only in industrial stocks while the DIVTRX is not. The INDI is overweight in SAB and NPN while the DIVTRX is overweight in Banks and Financial Services, the hardest hit sector today.
The industrial sector will never go out of favour as it is the heart of any country's growth. Charts have confirmed this.
I am now doubting if I made the right decision to put half my money into DIVTRX and nothing into STXIND.
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Could there be a recovery tomorrow? There was quite a sell off.
Looks like the INDI has more foreign prospects?
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The INDI is overweight in SAB and NPN
That is your answer right there. SAB and NPN are both countries with more offshore exposure than SA exposure hence the fact that they, and as a result the STXIND, did well yesterday. So I guess the question you should rather ask yourself is do you still believe SA holds better prospects for an investor compared with the rest of the world? Answer that question and you will know whether you should get out of the DIVTRX and add to your STXIND holdings or not.
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Trying to use hindsight to understand the chaotic events of the last few days is bound to end in angst and pain. Nobody could have predicted that the supposedly "safe" financial sector would lose 13% in a day. It's never happened before, not even in the 2008 banking crises. There's just no point in trying to have foreseen another way out. If we had perfect hindsight, we would have all moved our money to dollars many years ago.
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Today the STXIND was up by 1.6% while the DIVTRX was down by 4.7%.
Some may think why this happened as the two have been following each other trend wise with the DIVTRX doing somewhat better over the past year and a half and now the sudden downfall of the DIVTRX.
The 2 ETF's hold different stocks in their portfolios. The STXIND is only in industrial stocks while the DIVTRX is not. The INDI is overweight in SAB and NPN while the DIVTRX is overweight in Banks and Financial Services, the hardest hit sector today.
The industrial sector will never go out of favour as it is the heart of any country's growth. Charts have confirmed this.
I am now doubting if I made the right decision to put half my money into DIVTRX and nothing into STXIND.
Well, on the bright side you got out of CML - I am still riding that train down :D
But I do not envy you with money in SA and living on Euro's. All the talk here is on how to get the cash out. Nothing (so far) is effecting my dividends - so not too worried. Portfolio's are taking a beating but have no intention of changing anything - will learn about CFD's so next time can short abit.
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At least the divies from DIVTRX are higher than STXIND and the TER is lower so not too bad.
Yes. I am getting a bit worried about the FX rate now but we are living cheaper since we have found a farmers market for fresh supplies that is up to 4x cheaper than the large supermarkets. For instance, pork fillets whole and chicken leg quarters are R20 pk and mackerel fish is R17 pk.
This brings our monthly living costs down to just over R7k pm from R9k. This does not include our private medical aid as we pay that yearly and equates to R1 054.00 pm. So not bad at all so far.
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I was about to buy 200k worth of divtrx. Nervous now. :-[
What is the opinion??....should I wait some more before I buy? Or should buy the stxindi??? I am now thinking divtrx cos it's cheaper now. Urrh :'(
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I am sure the STXIND is still a good ETF but I wouldn't buy it until the SAB/AB deal is done and over with because I am pretty sure once that happens the STXIND will go through a bit of a correction. Just my humble newbie opinion.
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At least the divies from DIVTRX are higher than STXIND and the TER is lower so not too bad.
Yes. I am getting a bit worried about the FX rate now but we are living cheaper since we have found a farmers market for fresh supplies that is up to 4x cheaper than the large supermarkets. For instance, pork fillets whole and chicken leg quarters are R20 pk and mackerel fish is R17 pk.
This brings our monthly living costs down to just over R7k pm from R9k. This does not include our private medical aid as we pay that yearly and equates to R1 054.00 pm. So not bad at all so far.
That's pretty good - some excellent prices there - pork chops are around R40KG on special and chicken fillets around R50 on special. Cannot ever remember seeing pork fillets!. I am guessing fruit and veg in season is also cheap? I would still worry about you withdraw rate - I remember you saying that at one point was around 8% - which is a bit on the high side considering your age. To be fair, probably only best to work it out once the market has settled a bit when you next make a transfer.
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I suspect that my portfolio will get hit hard this week with DIVTRX that is top heavy in banks, financials and retail sectors. Not to mention my ADI and CIL that depend on imports. Then I still have PGR from which foreign investors are now forced to exit. Ouch.
Perhaps I should move to India now.
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This is my view on the SA Stock Exchange:-
That foreigners will continue to sell out of the market and the local fund managers will hold off buying these local shares thus suppressing and dropping the JSE share prices.
Foreigners could lose one of two ways or both:-
If they hold onto their shares in companies who are internationally diversified they will see the share prices drop and thus lose a capital gain and exit the market. They could also decide to ride it out take the capital knock, see earning improve in foreign terms which will improve dividend returns, but will lose heavily if they wish to repatriate their dividends back to their foreign state.
So I do think that foreigners will continue to exit the SA market slowly and ahead of the announcements next year of junk status for the country - I think the first announcement is around March next year, just after the Budget speech which should be a real financial disaster for the country
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With Gordhan coming back as FM - I am guess some respectability to be returned to the markets and all our portfolios this week. Thank goodness. Guess you can hold of on the move to the Delhi slums :)
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I am sure the STXIND is still a good ETF but I wouldn't buy it until the SAB/AB deal is done and over with because I am pretty sure once that happens the STXIND will go through a bit of a correction. Just my humble newbie opinion.
Interesting you say that as I have a large holding in the INDI and you've got me thinking now should I sell before the SAB deal goes through and buy again if the price drops quite a bit through a correction? What is the timescale on the SAB deal?
Any other views on this?
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With Gordhan coming back as FM - I am guess some respectability to be returned to the markets and all our portfolios this week. Thank goodness. Guess you can hold of on the move to the Delhi slums :)
Yes. I kept watching the news this weekend expecting Zuma to fall on his sword or uncle Trevor to take over as Financial Minister. Something had to happen this weekend and it did. :TU:
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Interesting you say that as I have a large holding in the INDI and you've got me thinking now should I sell before the SAB deal goes through and buy again if the price drops quite a bit through a correction? What is the timescale on the SAB deal?
Any other views on this?
Dunno bout selling but would definitely hold off on buying any more. As to when the deal will be done is anyone's guess. The deal has a of hurdles to get over and is very complicated.
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The delisting of SAB shouldn't affect the price of the indi at all if I understand correctly. All that should happen is that the rest of the index will increase in size to make up the difference, and the current 26th biggest industrial stock will become part of the index.
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But what about ABinBev listing? How will that affect the STXINDI?
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Also no effect on price, just rebalancing required to match the new index. Fortunately it won't cost the holder anything.
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I understand but what I mean is that the STXIND's price shot up because of the SAB/AB deal. Once the deal is done the price should go through a bit of correction, shouldn't it? And not trying to sound smart here. Actually really asking.
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The DIVTRX has been a real dog - absolutely shocking. I'm down 14% down since October. For a general ETF this is extraordinary - if it were more well known (think stx40) it would be making headlines. Fellow holders, how do you justify holding on to this? If it's not the miners dragging it down, it's retailers & finance. I'm on the verge of selling & taking a painful loss. Why should I continue to hold?
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Since I sold out of the DIVTRX 2 or 3 months ago I haven't looked at it again. Just did and OMG!!! What the hell happened to it???
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The short answer is Zuma happened to it. The longer answer, as Orca correctly stated, it now seems to be mostly finance shares, so it's tracking the STXFIN lately:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=ZA%3ASTXFIN&x=29&y=7&time=6&startdate=1%2F1%2F1996&enddate=1%2F1%2F1999&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=ZA%3ADIVTRX&comp=ZA%3ADIVTRX&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=262144&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=370&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
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Would seem that I chose a horrible year to enter the stock market and most people are of the opinion that next year won't be much better.
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Thinking of cutting my losses. Never wanted to be stuck in a sector like Financials as they are cyclical and has been in a bear mode for some time. The drought will hit the food retailers and not to mention the resources that DIVTRX has.
Where to now??? DBXUS or DBXJP? No. Stuck in one country that could become stagnant. EU STOX? No. Too much turbulence from Syria and migrants that could cause the fall of the EU and the Euro.
DBXWD seems diversified and doing well. The 1% management fee is high though but worth it.
Perhaps 50/50 in DBXWD and STXIND would do it. I think so. Tomorrow I will watch the spread on DIVTRX and sell asap.
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I'm transitioning my unit trust into VWRD in the next couple of months. I'll be using interactive brokers foot my offshore investing. I'll move DIVTRX next year when my discretionary allowance allows that again. Going for Max diversification and minimum fees and taxes.
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Thinking of cutting my losses. Never wanted to be stuck in a sector like Financials as they are cyclical and has been in a bear mode for some time. The drought will hit the food retailers and not to mention the resources that DIVTRX has.
Where to now??? DBXUS or DBXJP? No. Stuck in one country that could become stagnant. EU STOX? No. Too much turbulence from Syria and migrants that could cause the fall of the EU and the Euro.
DBXWD seems diversified and doing well. The 1% management fee is high though but worth it.
Perhaps 50/50 in DBXWD and STXIND would do it. I think so. Tomorrow I will watch the spread on DIVTRX and sell asap.
I think DBXWD is a good choice. :TU:
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What is everyone's opinion on the BBET40? It's almost like the STXIND but completely equally weighted. So you do not have to worry about how much of an affect companies such as NPN and SAB can have on it.
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I think DBXWD is a good choice. :TU:
I also think it's a good index to follow, but the costs are too high. Since you're already out of SA why not open an international brokerage account and buy VWRD. VWRD is the Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF. It tracks the FTSE all world index, which includes emerging markets. DBXWD tracks the MSCI world index which excludes emerging markets, which is likely why it has slightly underperformed the FTSE world. The TER is just 0.25% rather than 0.68% for DBXWD. If you really want a fund which excludes emerging markets, then rather buy SWDA. It also tracks the MSCI index, but at a TER of just 0.2%.
Both VWRD and SWDA are traded on the London stock exchange, but held in Ireland, which has big tax benefits (and decent estate tax laws). This means you won't have to pay local tax on the dividends as they are already taxed in Ireland. The maximum tax you will pay is 15%, but because some of the holdings don't pay that tax, it works out to about 11% tax at the moment.
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Here is a 5 year chart of STXIND vs the ETF's mentioned. The STXIND is the thick blue line.
The DBXWD is overbought and too expensive at this stage. The VWRD has averaged a mere 10% pa.
Perhaps I will stick to my old favourite STXIND. She looks cheap now and has survived previous SA downgrades.
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The VWRD has averaged a mere 10% pa.
True, but it is 10% in Dollar terms, which means it's a lot more in Rand terms.
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The VWRD has averaged a mere 10% pa.
True, but it is 10% in Dollar terms, which means it's a lot more in Rand terms.
And also less at the mercy of Zuma and Malema.
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The VWRD has averaged a mere 10% pa.
True, but it is 10% in Dollar terms, which means it's a lot more in Rand terms.
Lets work it out with the exchange rate then.
More accurately, VWRD has gained 40% in 5 years. That will average 8% pa.
The USD has doubled against the ZAR in 5 years looking at the NEWUSD chart.
When you factor that in, then according to the chart I posted, that would put VWRD at 80% or 16% pa.
All the others are above 100%.
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It's actually done way better than that, in rand terms it's done 200% in 5 years if you include divvies. I think your calculation didn't take into account the fact that the dollar strengthening against the rand also compounds. A better way to compare would be to compare both funds in Rand. The closest to that would be to compare STXIND and DBXWD over a 5 year period:
(http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w112/pgpatrick/Mobile%20Uploads/STXINDvsDBXWD5Years_zpsxpu4vlfs.jpg) (http://s174.photobucket.com/user/pgpatrick/media/Mobile%20Uploads/STXINDvsDBXWD5Years_zpsxpu4vlfs.jpg.html)
As you can see, DBXWD wins, most likely because the rand is a big loser. VWRD should have the same performace as DBXWD, but pay 0.43% more in dividends. VWRD pays about 2% per year after taxes, while STXIND pays 1.4% before taxes, so about 1.2% after. That means that even though VWRD has outperformed, it would also have paid about 0.8% a year more in dividends.
Plus of course, VWRD is VERY diversified, 6000+ companies, so a far lower risk than STXIND which has just 25 companies, but a huge 40%+ in two companies, SAB and NPN. With VWRD the biggest holding I believe is apple at 1.8%.
I've done a lot of research into the best play for a non-US resident to put their money, and the bight sparks at bogleheads suggest VWRD almost without fail. I'm going to transition all my holdings into it as soon as I can without incurring a huge amount of fees and taxes.
Edit, just thought I'd try a $ denominated graph. Here's VWRD compared to the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF, basically the SA all share index over the last 4 years (VWRD is only 4 years old):
(http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w112/pgpatrick/Mobile%20Uploads/VWRDvsZAAllShare4years_zpsgmymacmu.jpg) (http://s174.photobucket.com/user/pgpatrick/media/Mobile%20Uploads/VWRDvsZAAllShare4years_zpsgmymacmu.jpg.html)
How miserable does that make you, that in $ terms, the JSE has lost 20% over the last 4 years.
One more graph comparing VT, the world index US citizens can buy (lowest cost but foreigners mustn't buy it) to the JSE all share, all available data:
(http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w112/pgpatrick/Mobile%20Uploads/VTvsZAAllData_zpsst5hmi06.jpg) (http://s174.photobucket.com/user/pgpatrick/media/Mobile%20Uploads/VTvsZAAllData_zpsst5hmi06.jpg.html)
Here you can see that during the commodities boom, from 2009 to 2013, South Africa outperformed the world by a fairly long way. But in 2013 that ended, anyone want to place money on SA outperforming the world in dollar terms again anytime soon?
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We may have missed the boat as this chart of yours shows. Although it is a year old the ZAR seems to have dropped in value more aggressively than normal.
It is not the ZAR that has devalued as much but the USD has gained. You have to measure the currency against a basket of main currencies to reflect the correct gain or loss in value of a single currency.
The normal decline of the ZAR is 2.5% pa but the USD has made huge gains.
The NENEGATE saga will be short lived and I admit that it did do damage bur for how long?
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@Patrick
In your post above you say: "One more graph comparing VT, the world index US citizens can buy (lowest cost but foreigners mustn't buy it)"
Why do you say foreigners mustn't buy VT? Are you referring to the estate tax implications?
(If you have a GlobeTax agreement in place, will VTI+VEU not give you an overall lower expense ratio?)
Also, how will you be buying your VWRD? (From a USD based account with Standard Bank WebTrader or Absa World Trader?)
Some links I have been reading:
https://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/Some-Nonresidents-with-U.S.-Assets-Must-File-Estate-Tax-Returns
http://www.turtleinvestor.net/faq-vanguard-ftse-world-ucits-etf-vwrd/
http://www.turtleinvestor.net/establishing-bogleheads-3-fund-portfolio-singapore/
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@Patrick
In your post above you say: "One more graph comparing VT, the world index US citizens can buy (lowest cost but foreigners mustn't buy it)"
Why do you say foreigners mustn't buy VT? Are you referring to the estate tax implications?
(If you have a GlobeTax agreement in place, will VTI+VEU not give you an overall lower expense ratio?)
Also, how will you be buying your VWRD? (From a USD based account with Standard Bank WebTrader or Absa World Trader?)
Some links I have been reading:
https://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/Some-Nonresidents-with-U.S.-Assets-Must-File-Estate-Tax-Returns
http://www.turtleinvestor.net/faq-vanguard-ftse-world-ucits-etf-vwrd/
http://www.turtleinvestor.net/establishing-bogleheads-3-fund-portfolio-singapore/
Yes, it's the estate tax. If you are going to invest more than $60k in the US and you die, your family will have to pay huge taxes on the money. Also if you invest in the US you would pay 30% divvy tax. Our tax agreement will lower it to 15%, but if you're ever classed as a non-resident, it'll go back up to 30%. Or if you go to a country with a higher divvy tax rate, you'll pay that rate. With the Irish domiciled funds you'll never pay more than 15%, and currently it's 11%.
VTI and VEU would be low cost, but it's not a world index, just US and Europe. Also again, they're US domiciled so divvy tax as above applies.
I'm buying through interactive brokers. Their costs are the best I've found for a foreigner, particularly if you can keep $100k there, as then they drop the $10 a month minumum charge fee. ABSA wants a custodian fee, and I refuse to pay that anywhere! Also I quite like the idea that the money is out of reach of the SA government. I've opened an account, I'm just busy doing tax clearance etc, and looking for the cheapest way to move funds out of SA and into Dollars. Once I have it all figured out and successfully done then, I plan to do a blog post on it.
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Thanks Patrick, I will be interested to hear what you think about https://exchange4free.co.za/.
I have done a few transfers and got better rates than through my bank. If you do R100k+ you don't pay any fees. They also cover the fees on the receiving end.
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Thanks Patrick, I will be interested to hear what you think about https://exchange4free.co.za/.
I have done a few transfers and got better rates than through my bank. If you do R100k+ you don't pay any fees. They also cover the fees on the receiving end.
They're one of the brokers I'm looking at. It seems all the brokers charge pretty much the same. There are no fees, but their rate is mid-market+1%, so in the end you still pay R10 000 per million. Interestingly, they all use mercantile in the background to do the transfer, so I'm trying to cut out the middle man by dealing with mercantile directly to see if it will lower my fees.
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Does it not become easier to hold your offshore shares in a trust rather than limiting yourself to non-us or Irish domiciled shares?
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Does it not become easier to hold your offshore shares in a trust rather than limiting yourself to non-us or Irish domiciled shares?
Trusts are taxed at a much higher rate than individuals and taxed from rand one.
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Think carefully before you just pile into VWRD. It has had zero returns over a 2 year period. Actually it was negative in USD terms and the gains you get is merely the exchange rate of the USD/ZAR.
The selloff of the ZAR was overdone so there is little prospects of it continuing to do so over time or even the near future. It may even correct.
The normal decline of the ZAR may persist at 2,5% pa and if the VWRD carries on with it's spectacular gains of next to nothing then that is all you will get. A mere 2,5% pa.
If your actions are politically motivated, then go ahead.
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Regarding estate duty on US assets and using a US broker:
It appears that a cash balance in a US bank is not US situs, but a cash balance in a US brokerage is.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=150851
"The thing not to do is die after liquidating but before moving cash out of the broker. If you die before liquidating, and only hold non-US investments you are fine. At some point your heirs will have to liquidate and that means moving to a cash or sweep account, but at this point because you are already dead the US estate tax will be calculated on the non-liquidated stuff, which is by design non-US. If you die after liquidating and after moving cash from the broker to a bank (either US or non) you are also fine. It's just cash in a broker on date of death that causes issues."
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Latest STXIND rebalancing :
Interesting to see the retail groups being added?
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mny_sens/satrix-collective-investment-scheme-rebalancing-of-the-satrix-indi-portfolio-stxind-7/
STXIND 201601120019A
Rebalancing of the Satrix Indi Portfolio – STXIND
SATRIX COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEME
SATRIX INDI PORTFOLIO
JSE code: STXIND
ISIN code: ZAE000036364
(‘Satrix Indi’ or the “ETF”)
A portfolio in the Satrix Collective Investment Scheme, registered
as such in terms of the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act,
45 of 2002
REBALANCING OF THE SATRIX INDI PORTFOLIO
Notice is hereby given that the quarterly review of the FTSE/JSE Indi Index
has resulted in a rebalancing of the Satrix Indi ETF Portfolio.
There have been changes to the Satrix Indi constituents,and the
constituent weightings.
The complete list of current constituents and their respective weightings
have been included in the table below:
Previous New
Code Share weight weight
APN Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd 2.39% 2.48%
BTI British American Tobacco plc 5.60% 6.36%
BVT The Bidvest Group Ltd 2.57% 2.67%
CFR Compagnie Financičre Richemont SA 13.28% 13.74%
DST Distell Group Ltd 0.19% 0.18%
IPL Imperial Holdings Ltd 0.71% 0.51%
LHC Life Healthcare Group Holdings Ltd 0.91% 0.87%
MDC Mediclinic International Ltd 1.31% 1.47%
MRP Mr Price Group Ltd 0.00% 1.15%
MND Mondi Ltd 0.85% 0.00%
MNP Mondi plc 2.63% 0.00%
MPC Mr Price Group Ltd 1.20% 0.00%
MTN MTN Group Ltd 7.93% 6.14%
NPN Naspers Ltd 17.77% 22.67%
NTC Netcare Ltd 1.35% 1.26%
PFG Pioneer Food Group Ltd 0.64% 0.52%
PIK Pick n Pay Stores Ltd 0.00% 0.37%
REM Remgro Ltd 2.99% 3.03%
SAB SABMiller plc 18.39% 22.27%
SHF Steinhoff International Holdings 5.02% 0.00%
SHP Shoprite Holdings Ltd 1.73% 1.56%
SNH Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. 0.00% 4.98%
SPP The SPAR Group Ltd 0.00% 0.81%
SOL Sasol Ltd 5.72% 0.00%
TBS Tiger Brands Ltd 1.21% 1.29%
TFG The Foschini Group Ltd 0.74% 0.60%
TKG Telkom SA SOC Ltd 0.52% 0.51%
TRU Truworths International Ltd 0.95% 0.99%
VOD Vodacom Group Ltd 1.15% 1.24%
WHL Woolworths Holdings Ltd 2.25% 2.35%
100% 100%
The following constituents have been added to the Satrix Indi:
Previous New
Code Share weight weight
MRP Mr Price Group Ltd 0.00% 1.15%
PIK Pick n Pay Stores Ltd 0.00% 0.37%
SNH Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. 0.00% 4.98%
SPP The SPAR Group Ltd 0.00% 0.81%
The following constituents have been removed from the Satrix Indi:
Previous New
Code Share weight weight
MND Mondi Ltd 0.85% 0.00%
MNP Mondi plc 2.63% 0.00%
MPC Mr Price Group Ltd 1.20% 0.00%
SHF Steinhoff International Holdings 5.02% 0.00%
SOL Sasol Ltd 5.72% 0.00%
These changes were applied after the close of business on 18 December 2015
and are effective from 21 December 2015.
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Anybody know when DIVTRX is paying out again?
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Anybody know when DIVTRX is paying out again?
Saw a sens on twitter yesterday. Let me find one quick.
Here it is: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mny_sens/coreshares-index-tracker-managers-rf-proprietary-limited-distribution-finalisation-announcement-divtrx-3/
+- 16 cents
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Anybody know when DIVTRX is paying out again?
Saw a sens on twitter yesterday. Let me find one quick.
Here it is: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mny_sens/coreshares-index-tracker-managers-rf-proprietary-limited-distribution-finalisation-announcement-divtrx-3/
+- 16 cents
EE paid the dividends to the investment account on Friday and to the TFSA this morning
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DIVTRX recovering over the past week.
STXIND +2%
DIVTRX +4%
To rub salt into some wounds, here is a 5 day chart for those who fled to DBXUS.
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Recovery of the financial sector has the DIVTRX leading the DBXUS by 5% and the STXIND by 2,5% over the past month. :TU:
The USD/ZAR has corrected as Dawie Roodt predicted. Is 15,8 the new normal and time to buy USD?
Will the ZAR correct some more post Feb 24? Perhaps to 13,5 again?
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Recovery of the financial sector has the DIVTRX leading the DBXUS by 5% and the STXIND by 2,5% over the past month. :TU:
The USD/ZAR has corrected as Dawie Roodt predicted. Is 15,8 the new normal and time to buy USD?
Will the ZAR correct some more post Feb 24? Perhaps to 13,5 again?
Rand only improved due to weak dollar and uptick in commodity prices. Fundamentals for resources haven't changed at all, so Rand "strength" may not last.
Watch out for SONA and later the budget - both could move the Rand either way. I am betting weaker Rand, especially after SONA.
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Sure. The USD has taken a knock but the ZAR has also strengthened causing a double effect. If you compare the ZAR to a basket of main currencies, it shows that it is gaining strength.
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Slight hijack, but it concerns these two ETF's - I'm trying to figure out which ETF's would be the best for a TFSA, as per my other thread. Is there any reason why the bulk being split between STXIND and DIVTRX would not be the best thing I could do? I know DIVTRX wobbled a bit due to the recent shenanigans, but as a long term holding, it still appears to be a good bet.
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Difficult question as things seem to change in a heart beat lately. Financials and gold price cannot both go up simultaneously and this is a dilemma for DIVTRX plus the fact that retailers will be hit.
I too have no idea what to get into at this stage.
Zuma's speech on Thursday may be critical going forward but contrary to the negativity to it, I am sure he has been briefed by top economists on what to say that will benefit the ZAR and the up coming grading.
He also has to absolve himself from his moment of December madness.
Gordhan knows that he has more muscle now than he had before and can slice deeper into government spending without any Zuma interference. Zuma, unintentionally, has given him more power than he himself actually has and in my view, Gordhan has become the most powerful man in the SA government.
He will not fail us.
Until these 2 speeches are over, we will not know the direction we are headed.
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I fully subscribe to Orca's above piece and only a decision should be taken once these two speeches are concluded.
However the ANC government are past masters at saying what they intend doing yet get no further than lying on some shelf - see NDP
Gordhan is up against two other communists in cabinet Davies and Patel and he has "the blade" to deal with as well, so I don't hold out much hope that Gordhan is going to get the latitude to change policy, which is so desperately needed. On the matter of "Feesmustfall" one already sees that the government has mouthed off that there will be no increases in 2016 (hardly a shining light for feesmustfall) and has set up a commission to look into university fees, with a conclusion date sometime after August this year. This is the start because next we will have parents stating that they don't want to pay school fees and yet another mass action party will be held.
I also don't know how Gordhan is going to address the issue of grants and old age pensions because government raided their contingency account to pay public sector salary increases, so they have no money. With falling tax receipts the government only has 2 choices 1) increase tax thresholds and brackets by a minimum of 4% to meet future needs or 2) borrow more money. Once 2 happens the World Bank will step in and we will without a shadow of a doubt we will get a junk bond rating and end up like Greece, Russia, Brazil et al.
Regrettably the government has looked to China to be their saviour which is indeed diabolical for this country as it is simply one way traffic where we import more than we export to them. They will end up paying for dams and whatever infrastructure that this ANC government requires and they will fund it, so ultimately the Chinese will colonise the country and as things are going the rest of Africa to boot.
So do I see a rah rah speech from Gordhan - not really, there is only one positive about SONA and the budget speech - both are happening ahead of elections in May
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It would be rather fantastic to have a crystal ball roundabout now :P But yes, will hold off on purchasing any shares until the speeches are over and there's some inkling of a smarter long-term play. Although, I'm not sure what actual difference it will make, seeing as you've got to invest somewhere.
I also tend to agree with what Orca said earlier in this post, about how the industrial sector is the beating heart of this country. Financials do seem to be akin to a crazed pinball machine at the moment. So....... reckon I'll be going with 50% in STXIND for now, rest to be determined.
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Recovery of the financial sector has the DIVTRX leading the DBXUS by 5% and the STXIND by 2,5% over the past month.
That was a mere 3 trading days ago and things have improved since.
The DIVTRX and the DBXUS are retreating from each other in opposite directions and now....
DIVTRX beating the DBXUS by 13% over 4 weeks and the STXIND by 8% for the same period. Now I'm glad I did not rush blindly into the USD. ;D
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DIVTRX now beating the STXIND by 13% over 1 month and the DBX's by a whopping 20%.
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I considered selling nearly 10% lower ??? :whistle: