Author Topic: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.  (Read 19662 times)

Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2014, 07:06:23 pm »
Now here is my favorite. CML. This is a different kettle of fish to predict. I haven't seen any candle patterns on it so I used the 20ma for years as she would always bounce off it upwards. This is particularly true for non volatile stocks. The more volatile, the longer MA you should use. Some work on the 50ma. You just have to find it. The long term 200 or 150ma works well on the TOPI and IND25. Too high above it and they will retract back down.

Back to CML. Since June last year when she broke down through the 20ma, she has become more volatile and does not respect that MA at all now. Freely flying through it with no hesitation at all.

Now look at the Bollinger Bands. The bottom BB has become her support and she now always bounces off it and heads for the top BB to bend it upwards as she goes higher. She never bends the bottom BB down. The middle line is the 20ma.
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aae

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2014, 08:23:51 pm »
and it is only the guys with those programmes substantiating those facts.

Go and look at the charts, candles and what ever you want about the gold price from 2 or 3 years ago till today. You will note that all those strategies fell down the shaft at harmony.

They do work but keep the broader market into perspective. Many of these factors are driven by people watching the same candles and giving a share price the momentum it should not have

Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2014, 10:50:12 am »
You are absolutely correct. That is the reason I would never touch resources. Candle patterns by themselves do not move stocks in a certain direction. It is the traders that act upon the patterns. We all know that.
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Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2014, 07:44:21 pm »
Here is a perfect example for Neil to look at.
A long term gap that had to close. Had you invested in SAB after the gap and don't look at charts then you would not have known that she would eventually be traded down to close it.  A text book case.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2014, 07:47:46 pm by Orca »
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Snakepit

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2014, 10:23:01 pm »
I don't know guys. I see a lot of signals in ORCA's chart. Yes fundamentals are important but heng, if the market gives you stuff on a silver platter, why ignore it? I will tell you what I see in the chart.

Just before the gap there was a drop. The candle formation right at the top is an engulfing red candle, engulfing a green candle. I would have traded that short if I could via a  CFD and would have put my stop at the top of the red candle. At least that was a signal that price might drop. Further down that drop their was another red engulfing.

Right at the bottom there was what I call a shark. Have you seen a sharks mouth open? It's red. Look at the bottom you see a red candle swallow a green candle completely. I would have exited my short or would have bought the share at that stage.

The gap is a continuation gap. That was buying force and if you know candles, a gap in this case (especially shares), creates a support level.

I see 2 Highwave candles at the tops. Normally highwave candles indicate a change of direction. It's when the bears and the bulls are sort of in limbo.

And lastly, when the gap closed we got a piercing pattern at a bottom on a resistance level. I would have gone long there. There was a lot more signals but I am tired of typing.

I hear what you are all saying but knowing your candle formations that is a reflection of price, just can't be ignored.




Neil

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2014, 11:44:49 am »
Here is a perfect example for Neil to look at.
A long term gap that had to close. Had you invested in SAB after the gap and don't look at charts then you would not have known that she would eventually be traded down to close it.  A text book case.

Firstly as you know I dont look at the short term, I look long term. Also as you know I dont believe/trust in this whole technical "drawing lines on a graph, and trying to find a pattern, bollinger bands, oscillators" mumbo jumbo stuff, no offence. Its always about fundamentals, future free cash flow, and putting a fair valuation on a stock. If the current market price is below my fair value for the stock (by a fair margin) then buy, if not I dont. Also what the growth and expansion plans for the business are very important among other things as I have discussed before.

But relating to buying/selling SAB, It was overvalued on your october marking, before your october marking and even now its still overvalued ~26PE. I wouldnt even buy 1 share of it. I deploy my capital efficiently.


PS: I apologise if I seem cranky and confrontational. I had to have 6 stitches to a bad cut I got on my ear yesterday. So im not in the best of moods.

« Last Edit: February 22, 2014, 11:47:01 am by Neil »
Disclaimer:The views/opinions expressed in this post are that of the writer and are not to be interpreted as advice, nor as a indication to buy/sell any investment or equity. The writer will not be held liable for any profit or loss resulting from reading of this post by the reader in any form.

Moonraker

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2014, 01:58:05 pm »
Remember the PE of SABMiller is of course much lower on the LSE where they have their primary listing. (About 17,9) based on latest  full year EPS on 31/3/13.
If the price remains as is, the forward PE in London will probably be ± 15-16. Will need to wait for the next finals to see.

So, friends, don't forget to factor in the exchange rate.


Here are some forecasts

Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2014, 07:05:16 pm »
As I said before. I agree with Neil about fundamentals. I don't trade and therefor don't look at trading signals but rather look at technicals for entry points for the long term.
Had I wanted to buy SAB, I would have noticed the gap and not bought knowing that it would eventually drop back down to close it even if her fundamentals were great.

Now you might wonder why I am not winning the competition using charts. I will never win as I use fundamentals rather than gambling. Waiting for signals takes too long but I would never do badly.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2014, 07:59:25 pm by Orca »
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Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2014, 06:32:40 pm »
Neil's become very quiet. Perhaps he is studying charts?  :(
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Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2014, 07:04:07 pm »
Just trying to make this site more busy. Anyone care to explain why SAB's gap was support and reversed the short term down trend? Snakepit obviously knows. His "Dark clouds, Engulfing candles, Sharks etc" are strictly short term trading for 2 to 4 days max and I don't bother with those as I look at the long term signals only. Good to know them if you are trading though.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2014, 07:26:14 pm by Orca »
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Neil

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2014, 08:10:14 pm »
Neil's become very quiet. Perhaps he is studying charts?  :(

nope not studying charts, never will. Just nothing worth posting on atm. Besides Im busy with getting all my ducks in a row. Going to be studying a BCom in business management in april, exploring employment opportunities in Canada, and other general work related issues.

I always read the business news everyday, Im quite fascinated how massmart (I have shares in Massmart) keeps dropping on the back of a 37% increase in earnings as published in a recent trading statement. The market can behave very irrationally. Id buy more massmart, but Im currently putting my money away in low risk assets so I can take it with me to Canada (at least if I manage to find employment there).

 On a side note, is anyone taking note of JD group? Im looking forward to the annual results, if after the annual results the company is still priced fairly below the NAVps I might be very tempted to put some of my dividends there.
Disclaimer:The views/opinions expressed in this post are that of the writer and are not to be interpreted as advice, nor as a indication to buy/sell any investment or equity. The writer will not be held liable for any profit or loss resulting from reading of this post by the reader in any form.

Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2014, 08:32:14 pm »
Canada? You going to freeze your dick off there. There is lots of ice and stuff in winter. You will be counting trees through your windows most of your life there. My two aunties came back from Canada to thaw out here.
What is the code for Massmart and JD?
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Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2014, 08:54:00 pm »
Got the codes. Both have a high PE Ratio and are trading below the 200ma. The trend has been down for months and no reversal signal yet. If you want to go with the momentum, then these will help you go further down.
No trend lines can be drawn as they are both too low under the SELL 200ma. Only the Fib lines could work with them.
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gcr

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #28 on: February 24, 2014, 08:55:17 pm »
Neil's become very quiet. Perhaps he is studying charts?  :(

nope not studying charts, never will. Just nothing worth posting on atm. Besides Im busy with getting all my ducks in a row. Going to be studying a BCom in business management in april, exploring employment opportunities in Canada, and other general work related issues.

I always read the business news everyday, Im quite fascinated how massmart (I have shares in Massmart) keeps dropping on the back of a 37% increase in earnings as published in a recent trading statement. The market can behave very irrationally. Id buy more massmart, but Im currently putting my money away in low risk assets so I can take it with me to Canada (at least if I manage to find employment there).

 On a side note, is anyone taking note of JD group? Im looking forward to the annual results, if after the annual results the company is still priced fairly below the NAVps I might be very tempted to put some of my dividends there.
If you want to invest in JD group then rather do it through Steinhoff or PSG - with PSG you at least get the benefit of Curro, Steinhoff, Zeder, Capitec as they have shareholdings across all these companies - PSG like to take a stake of about 20% in companies because then they can influence management decisions
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Orca

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Re: Stock trading and investment buying strategies.
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2014, 05:58:45 pm »
The Evening Star candle formation on HAR has played out. I have never done technicals on gold miners as they are more driven by events, gold price and the ZAR than charts. Today's move was with the sector but lets see tomorrow.
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