The JSE and finance forum for South Africa

General Category => Shares => Topic started by: LittleBT on May 08, 2013, 02:50:08 pm

Title: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on May 08, 2013, 02:50:08 pm
Recovery and return of the bull market...?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Johan on May 08, 2013, 03:49:08 pm
The chart makes it look like we're in a recovery, but I'm not a charter so I can't give you any technicals.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 09, 2013, 09:31:58 am
Almost back to mid March highs after only six consecutive up days, I don't think we left the bull market in the first place.  Which is a pity considering what's fuelling markets in the first place.  For sure not growth and economic strength but the opposite thereof.  Worst of all, preventative measures (i.e. QE, bond buying, rate cuts) which are a 'last resort' by definition, are designated to international markets not to SA, so why oh why are we reaching all time highs?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: gcr on May 09, 2013, 12:35:45 pm
I would think that if the Reserve Bank does cut interest rates at the next Monetary Policy meeting that a substantial portion of funds which could have gone to bonds and fixed investments with banks will go to fund managers and other investors directly into the stock market. So I think we will continue to see the overall indices ticking up and then pulling back for a breather and then carrying on. Buffet is reported seeing the Dow getting to 16,000 to 17,000 by year end - that still significant growth to come
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on May 14, 2013, 03:34:55 pm
no a bad day at all, up by 673 points...
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 14, 2013, 04:07:00 pm
Dolf what are you watching or rather smoking, :) highest today so far plus 170 more or less.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: gcr on May 14, 2013, 04:11:03 pm
Dolf what are you watching or rather smoking, :) highest today so far plus 170 more or less.

Yup Industrial 25 has shown an increase of 446.44 points (4.10 p.m.)
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 14, 2013, 04:22:01 pm
Industrial now plus 485 yes, top 40 plus 197 :)
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on May 15, 2013, 08:12:25 am
Sorry for confusion caused, this was combined points taken from individual long positions  ;), one single move of this size would be amazing...
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 15, 2013, 08:35:33 am
No worries Dolf, kept us on our toes. 

Nice trade by the way.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: gcr on May 15, 2013, 06:35:20 pm
I see the Top 40 closed at 36322.20 which is still a way off their all time high of 36515.31 achieved on 11/02/2013 and that the All Share closed at 41014.98 which is just below what I have as an all time high of 41047.72 per 14/03/2013 so our markets are pumping.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: gcr on May 16, 2013, 03:43:25 pm
Top 40 hit a high of 36,824.33 and ALSI 41465.81 both have pulled back a bit
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: AVM on May 16, 2013, 04:26:53 pm
Top 40 hit a high of 36,824.33 and ALSI 41465.81 both have pulled back a bit
It's been a great month, my portfolio is looking pretty healthy overall!
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Patrick on May 17, 2013, 12:53:32 pm
I see the satrix40 portfolio is sitting in 39th place out of 267. Seems to be confirming the view that the majority of people shouldn't try to beat the market  ;D

It'll be interesting to see how it ranks come year end.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moonraker on May 17, 2013, 01:39:25 pm
Why You Should Avoid the South Africa ETF (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-you-should-avoid-the-south-africa-etf-etf-news-and-commentary-cm246840)

Quote
Clearly, given the many problems afflicting the nation, South Africa should be avoided and the focus should be on other markets instead. For this reason, we have a Zacks ETF Rank #5 (Strong Sell) on EZA, suggesting that we believe underperformnace is in the cards for this fund in the near term as well.
Quote
In such a scenario, iShares MSCI South Africa ETF ( EZA ) turned out be one of the worst performing country ETFs to start the year. The fund has delivered a negative return of 9.56% year to date, as the fund continues to be affected by troubles surrounding the country ( Three Country ETFs Struggling in 2013 ).

EZA in Focus

EZA is one of the main sources to play the South African economy and provides exposure to 51 securities. The fund manages an asset base of $506 million and trades at volume levels of more than 200,000 shares a day.

At 12.82%, EZA allocates a hefty proportion to the Mining sector occupying the fourth position, after Financials (28.4%), Consumer Discretionary (18.8%) and Telecommunication (13.46%).

So it can be said EZA's heavy exposure to mining companies may have impacted its performance to a large extent. The recent turbulence in the yellow metal and mining companies seemed to have a negative impact on the ETF ( Top Mining ETFs in Focus ).

The fund has also not been able to do much in minimizing stock-specific risk either, as nearly 55% of the asset base goes towards the top ten holdings. Among individual holdings, MTN Group, Naspers and Sasol occupy the top three positions in the fund with asset allocation of 11.81%, 10.13% and 9.02%, respectively.


Was not sure where to post this.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on May 20, 2013, 01:59:09 pm
wow what was that? SA40 down from a high of +/- 37000, to +/- 36200, Ben Bernanke...?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: aspire on May 20, 2013, 03:52:25 pm
wow what was that? SA40 down from a high of +/- 37000, to +/- 36200, Ben Bernanke...?

http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Equities/JSE-slips-on-weaker-sentiment-20130520
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 20, 2013, 08:58:53 pm
Right direction but still not impressed.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: AVM on May 21, 2013, 08:38:38 pm
I see the competitions satrix 40 portfolio is up nearly 8.5% in under a month. Those guys that have never been on the market before are going to think shares are incredibly easy to make money off!
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on May 24, 2013, 09:03:01 am
Rebounding today?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on June 24, 2013, 12:25:37 pm
SA40 been taking a hammering recently...down to almost 33900
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: AVM on June 24, 2013, 01:18:10 pm
Asia is down too. The prices look good to invest with, but I don't want to be the one catching a falling knife. I'll wait for a turnaround before I take my wallet out.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: LittleBT on September 19, 2013, 09:31:39 am
Ben's holding out on tapering seems good for our markets. Good news for now, but is it sustainable?
Will have to enjoy the long whilst it lasts...
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on September 19, 2013, 04:47:14 pm
Up over 900 points atm, and there is a small divvie on longs also for today.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 09, 2014, 08:44:47 am
I'm using the SA Top 40 futures chart from IG markets below....

The market is currently cross-current (momemtum pushing down against positive trend) so expect choppy conditions to continue. My favourite analogy is when the wind (momentum) blows counter to the prevailing current (trend) then you get choppy conditions. When the wind and current are moving in the same direction this cause big swells in that direction. This is when both long term and short term investors act together, instead of against each other.

However, although momentum is moving down it is still positive (i.e. in upper half of bottom chart) so expect bias to upside still. Wall Street is in a similar "wait and see", choppy mode so I don't expect any fireworks or big moves this week. The market is most likely expecting some data points and / or a statement about or from Yellen.

Out of interest, a recession usually follows the appointment of a new Fed Reserve chair.....
Volcker, appointed 1979, recession 1981 – 1982
Greenspan, appointed 1987, recession 1990 – 1991
Bernanke, appointed 2006, recession 2008 – 2009
Yellen, appointed 2014, recession ............

Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 10, 2014, 03:37:35 pm
Non Farm Payrolls just in at 74K vs. 196K consensus. Unemployment at 6.7% versus 7% consensus. Non farm payrolls is very weak and seems to be leading Wall Street down for now.

However, Yellen has said she will target unemployment and therefore this could also be read as positive. However, as most traders are addicted to QE stimulus and a healthier full employment economy now means that the Queen Dealer (Yellen) will be pulling their stash (tapering) quicker than they had previously wished for.

Strange days. Market still choppy and cross current but if we see an up push on Wall Street tonight we "should" see an upside breakout early next week for both Wall Street and JSE. This would be very bullish as momentum moves back up in line with trend. Not confirmed yet however and market currently looking to chop around sideways for now.

Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 13, 2014, 10:06:56 am
Market still choppy but waiting for an upside breakout here. Should continue to tread water sideways for today although any good news on Wall Street etc. could easily see the market run up 1,000 points here.

Definitely should not be short. Eager traders might consider entering anticipation longs as downside is limited. However, may be able to get better entry point later on as upside move not confirmed yet.


Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 13, 2014, 12:42:04 pm
Not liking the price action on JSE or Dow futures. Would definitely hold off on entering any new longs for now.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: aspire on January 13, 2014, 04:07:55 pm
Not liking the price action on JSE or Dow futures. Would definitely hold off on entering any new longs for now.

Haven't noticed anyone using charts on the competition. Why don't you give it a go?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 24, 2014, 10:06:06 am
Markets looking a little shaky here. If we don't see a rally on the street today then we could continue this downward grind into February, potentially shaving off a 1,000 points on Top 40 before momentum turns back up. However, downward moves from here will be quick and sharp, probably only lasting a few days. Very similar setup to first few days in January this year (see chart). However, we haven't seen a downside trigger yet so price action today is very important for next week's direction.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on January 25, 2014, 12:18:24 am
I guess you could definitely say we saw the downside trigger today. Markets are going to be tough and chopping around sideways to down for most of next week.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on February 03, 2014, 02:17:42 pm
Markets are looking to bottom out as oversold intensifies. However, both weekly and monthly charts now show downside triggers. So unless we see a fairly quick correction back up (this week) we could be in for a prolonged downside drift. My feeling is that we get a sideways move this week to form a bear flag and then a downside breakout towards end of week as momentum pushes back down again. We really need an almost immediate correction to the upside to sustain the positive trend else I figure that trend will turn down and we see a couple of bearish months.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on February 03, 2014, 03:25:11 pm
I guess you could definitely say we saw the downside trigger today. Markets are going to be tough and chopping around sideways to down for most of next week.


Well spotted there fc.

With 1 hour to go before US open, S&P/DOW/NAS futures up +0.30%,
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on February 04, 2014, 07:18:04 am
Big down day on Wall Street. SA futures down 400 odd points already. February looks like being a rough month.... Daily and weekly momentum now quite rapidly oversold (the bear has jumped out the window) but monthly momentum only starting to turn negative. Could have made a bottom already and spend the rest of the month grinding sideways before getting enough momentum to recover. However, I suspect there's at least another 900 points to be wiped off the Top 40 before the real bottom is in.... Markets really don't like new Fed Chairs and markets really, really don't like losing their drug i.e. the little QE tablets that uncle Ben used to dish out.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Bevan on February 04, 2014, 07:21:53 am
After such a big move we should see a bounce (of the dead cat variety) today. Very short term buying opportunity i.e. buy on the open and sell by end of day because tomorrow should resume the negativity......
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on February 04, 2014, 08:08:33 am
And we are down to -524 points and not even 8:30 yet.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on February 25, 2014, 09:01:39 am
Don't forget about the dividend adjustment on the T40 this Friday, 135 points.
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Aragorn on February 25, 2014, 09:09:48 am
How's that c100 point move at 8.30 this morning?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on February 25, 2014, 10:32:48 am
You can always, (okay not always but mostly), trust 8:30 spike licking up stop losses to show you direction, hehe.

Quick 303 point counter direction:

Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Aragorn on February 25, 2014, 11:06:49 am

Quick 303 point counter direction:
Pity I wasn't short, but glad I wasn't long.... :o
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Snakepit on February 26, 2014, 10:20:26 pm
Well Moneypenny, why don't we see if we can help the forum members with our technical skills. Anybody can place a chart of a share and then we give our technical commentary. Let see if knowing the technicals can give those that trade on fundamentals an edge. Just to prove that technicals has it's place in shares.

The only rule: It must be a candlestick chart and I guess a daily chart will be fine seeing that it is sloooooow moving shares :whistle:

You guys want to give it a bash?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Snakepit on February 26, 2014, 10:24:00 pm
Maybe next year, if the moderator allows, we should have a technicals shootout against the fundamentalists.  ::)
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on February 27, 2014, 08:37:31 am
I like it Snakepit. Just not so sure I’m your gal though. 

I only use basic techs (support, resistance, RSI, & MACD) but my main focus stays fundamental.

I did a course with Larry Lavin from Trading Advantage but I have to say, I can’t see what technical guys see in charts.  No, I mean literally cannot ‘see’, they see ‘head and shoulders’ and I’m thinking, yeah right, in which universe?  I’m obviously doing something wrong; maybe being a creative person with an odd mix of perfectionism and rebellion is my problem.
 
I would love for this thread to grow so I can get this sorted as I think techs have a definite and important place in trading/investing. I’m thinking Orca, Aragorn, forward curve, gcr, and other left brain thinkers like Patrick & Neil and others might be appropriate candidates to assist?   We have more than 600 forumites, I’m sure we have a few more silent techies who can chime in?

I’ll also chirp in, even if it’s only to ask the silly question others are afraid to. >:D

But please continue this tread and kudos on a valuable idea from your side. :TU:
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Snakepit on February 28, 2014, 08:35:21 pm
Hehehehhahhah ja a head and shoulders. Most traders believe in them. You see these patterns appear over and over in futures.

So to all forum users. Let the games begin. Give us a chart to analyze. What do you have to lose?
Title: Re: South Africa Top 40
Post by: Moneypenny on March 03, 2014, 08:19:47 am
Great. :)
 
Maybe you should start a new topic for this one Snakepit, then members can add various company charts or indices as well?