Author Topic: Share growth comparison and timeframes  (Read 26757 times)

tgg78703

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 189
  • Karma: +6/-1
    • View Profile
Share growth comparison and timeframes
« on: October 23, 2013, 06:36:54 pm »
I don,t know quite how to explain my point in this , but let me try.

It might also be more appropriate to an trader and not investor.

There are always article comparing the growth in various shares, but they all have certain times frames involved.
i.e. Year to date
      1 Year
      2 Years

But they never ever show the true picture.

To sort of explain my point (the prices ar,nt exact and there might be some calculation errors

Take Telkom, if you bought in January at a about R18.50 you would have had about 50% growth year to date
but if you bought in may at R12 you would have had 134% at the moment.

SGL if you bought in February when they listed you would have paid R16.30 a share , trading at R14.18 today, a 13% loss
If you bought them in May R6.75, would would have made 110% Profit

This is one of the reasons that trading remains a viable despite the tax implication.

I think the point I trying to get across is that there are different ways of investing.

My way has always been to look for a company that is oversold , because of short term bad news and market sentiment but is a good company.

That way you maximise profits.

Otherwise you might as well just spread your risk and go Satrix and be content with 16% growth.

There are however many good shares that just grow, like cml 138% for the 12 months without many dips, but there are very few and far between.

But on 90 day growth they are 20%, SGL 60%, TKG 54%.

Just a different perspective I suppose




Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2013, 07:48:09 pm »
I have always used the Momentum and Trend system with good success to date. This MUST be coupled to fundamentals as well. Future prospects for further growth is very important.
Not putting a feather in my cap but was it not me that exposed CML as the stock of the future in 2009 on the other forum? I had a "blog" on it since 2009. It was a relatively unknown stock then. Look at it now.
Your system of looking for stocks that are oversold does not always work. Look for stocks that JUST KEEP GOING UP AND UP. They are the winners. There is a reason why they keep going up and up.
OMN is a good example. Look at the chart and read up on it. A steady growth of +- 60% pa.
MTA is another. (The next CML)

Stay away from those TOPI stuff and cyclical stocks. Look at the 3 year charts for a continuous uptrend then do research.

Bet i will get flack here. 



 
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4553
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2013, 08:43:25 am »
Yes, I agree with you. I do it by only following about 15 shares, every now and then drop 1, add a new 1 and so on.
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it

Moneypenny

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1891
  • Karma: +37/-0
    • View Profile
    • Bu Valiere
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2013, 09:01:33 am »
Mostly I try to go for the underdog with potential, hoping to catch them on their way back up, risky but good when you get it right.

gcr

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1008
  • Karma: +28/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2013, 09:12:46 am »
Mostly I try to go for the underdog with potential, hoping to catch them on their way back up, risky but good when you get it right.
I agree that it is an acceptable strategy - has worked for me with Barlows, BHP Billiton, Clicks, Mr Price and Massmart and Woolworths. Just sitting waiting for my Goldfields and Vodacom to improve and get me into the green stuff :frustrated:
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4553
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2013, 09:22:08 am »
I do not like VODACOM, I think the pressure on the telecoms in SA is down. They (VD/MTN/Cell C  :frustrated:) is figting for market share and they are dropping their prices.

See my fishies the oil price has dropped, do the ships use oil? Orca, do they use this oil to put the fishies in? MoneyPenny.

Also the volume has picked up on OCE the last 3 days.  >:(
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it

Moneypenny

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1891
  • Karma: +37/-0
    • View Profile
    • Bu Valiere
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2013, 09:29:39 am »
What?   :D

You're confused again jaDEB?

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4553
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2013, 10:00:57 am »
 :'(
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4553
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2013, 12:45:22 pm »
 :question:
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it

tgg78703

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 189
  • Karma: +6/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2013, 06:05:41 pm »
There are many shares with good L/T growth.

But I am the impatient type :)

I have a % of my portfolio in L/T stuff, But I have to play the market as I buy alot of toys and need above average growth to pay for them.

The market is very volatile since 2009 and investors/trader very jittery. So the overeact to news sometimes.

As happened with TGK today

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2013, 06:57:47 pm »
There are many shares with good L/T growth.

But I am the impatient type :)

I have a % of my portfolio in L/T stuff, But I have to play the market as I buy alot of toys and need above average growth to pay for them.

The market is very volatile since 2009 and investors/trader very jittery. So the overeact to news sometimes.

As happened with TGK today
If you wanna buy a lot of Blow up dolls and Dildos and stuff then you must invest in stocks that are not volatile. Look at jaDEB's example above. That is my favorite old Omnia. A good steady, unvolatile stock that is reliable 60% per annumer.
There are many more to choose from to suite your fetishes. Just ask.
I also used to buy those toys when I was your age you know.
 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2013, 07:05:07 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Nios

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 124
  • Karma: +3/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2013, 08:44:06 pm »
Orca Im keen to learn how you pick those stocks. Would you mind sharing your stock picking strategy?

tgg78703

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 189
  • Karma: +6/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2013, 06:54:26 am »

I also used to buy those toys when I was your age you know.
[/quote]

I,m not young, just immature.

I take it you are are a pensioner then ;)

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2013, 10:35:53 am »
Orca Im keen to learn how you pick those stocks. Would you mind sharing your stock picking strategy?
Eish. You put me in a spot now. I might get shouted at and I don't want you to loose your money.
In short. Look for stocks that have a good past performance like the one that jaDEB posted above. Then read through the SENS to find out what's been happening. Read their website. If you're satisfied that the fundamentals and prospects are good for the continuance of that trend then buy it.
Don't look for stocks that are trending too high as you will land up with an ELI. CML is a case in point.
This has done me well since 2009.
For added safety, make sure the PE ratio is good for long term.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2013, 10:46:17 am by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

gcr

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1008
  • Karma: +28/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Share growth comparison and timeframes
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2013, 01:14:28 pm »
Orca Im keen to learn how you pick those stocks. Would you mind sharing your stock picking strategy?
Eish. You put me in a spot now. I might get shouted at and I don't want you to loose your money.
In short. Look for stocks that have a good past performance like the one that jaDEB posted above. Then read through the SENS to find out what's been happening. Read their website. If you're satisfied that the fundamentals and prospects are good for the continuance of that trend then buy it.
Don't look for stocks that are trending too high as you will land up with an ELI. CML is a case in point.
This has done me well since 2009.
For added safety, make sure the PE ratio is good for long term.
Or you can hold off making any decisions unto Sunday 2nd November and get the Sunday Times Top 100 companies annual review. Then look at companies who have performed well over the last 3/5/10 years
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein