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Author Topic: SAB  (Read 43130 times)

Bevan

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Re: SAB
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2015, 03:43:50 pm »
Same thing happened last year or year before I believe. Nothing came of it then and quite frankly, I can't see how this time can be any different. What Competition Commission anywhere in the world would allow the No. 1 and No. 2 brewer in the world to merge?
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Fawkes85

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Re: SAB
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2015, 05:05:54 pm »
Quote from: Bevan on September 16, 2015, 03:43:50 pm
Same thing happened last year or year before I believe. Nothing came of it then and quite frankly, I can't see how this time can be any different. What Competition Commission anywhere in the world would allow the No. 1 and No. 2 brewer in the world to merge?

I was wondering the same thing. I am no expert but you do not have to be an expert to know that when the number 1 and 2 companies in sector were to merge it would create a monopoly. I don't see this deal going through without some terms being set for these two companies like for instance ABInBev will only be allowed to buy SAB but not the Miller part or vice versa. Or maybe they can buy SABMiller but not before SABMiller sell of Coors and some other brands.

Again I am no expert. What do you guys think?
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Moonraker

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Re: SAB
« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2015, 05:35:06 pm »
It will happen.

Quote
An offer for SABMiller would probably have to be at least a 30 percent premium to its stock price before yesterday’s rise, or more than 39 pounds ($60) per share, according to an analyst note from Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. That would value SABMiller at about 63 billion pounds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. regulators are likely to ask for the disposal of SABMiller’s stake in Miller Coors in the U.S., while AB InBev may also have to sell SABMiller’s 49 percent stake in CR Snow Zeijang in China, the analysts said.

According to David Shapiro, if the deal goes through, SAB shareholders may receive cash as a dual inward listing may not come about due to the tiny SA holdings. Altria holds 27% and the Columbian family interests 14%. Biggest shareholder here, the PIC only holds 3%.
That would be rather sad.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2015, 06:58:08 pm by Moonraker »
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Fawkes85

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Re: SAB
« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2015, 08:39:31 am »
If the deal goes through there is a chance we won't be able buy into the new company. This from Moneyweb:

"Whether the company would remain listed on the JSE is of course dependent on the structure of the deal, but with less than 20% of the shares listed in SA, it seems highly unlikely."
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Moonraker

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Re: SAB
« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2015, 09:41:50 am »
What to do ? Should I hold for now hoping the deal will be clinched when there will be another ± 10% premium on the current price and then receive the cash if not dual listed ?
Or sell some or all now in case the deal is rejected by SAB ?
Or simply hold and hope for a dual listing ?
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Mr_Dividend

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Re: SAB
« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2015, 10:04:48 am »
My wife has a few and was very tempted to tell her to sell yesterday. I hate selling, and she actually has never sold a share - she got into SAB @ R250. Looking at the business - I cannot see where growth will come from to justify a 25 p/e - if anything H/E might go down due to weakness in developing countries currency. So then it just becomes a play on the take over - which IF successful will take quite a while I guess.

I would be VERY tempted to take the money and run. IMO
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Fawkes85

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Re: SAB
« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2015, 12:34:17 pm »
Do you guys really think the deal will go through? The fact that SAB came out and made the offer public was somewhat due to regulations in the UK but at the same time I think they did it to do AB in a little bit. Now AB's hand is forced and they have to commit within (now less than) 28 days. I don't think SAB wants to sell and by going public with the offer I think they were trying to prevent AB from having enough time to get all their ducks in a row.
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Moonraker

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Re: SAB
« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2015, 01:06:58 pm »
I was going to sell my 1500 but am a few months short of holding them for 3 years. Don't want to be classified as a trader so will continue to hold for now.
The deal will go through because ABI will do their utmost to make it attractive to SAB board and shareholders. A 10% premium over the current price
is expected.
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Patrick

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Re: SAB
« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2015, 01:43:04 pm »
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.
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yozzi

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Re: SAB
« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2015, 06:39:07 pm »
Quote from: Patrick on September 18, 2015, 01:43:04 pm
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.

Interesting point and hopefully it's a positive impact!
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Orca

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Re: SAB
« Reply #25 on: September 19, 2015, 04:05:51 pm »
SAB's primary listing is in London. Should they delist from the JSE, the STXIND would not budge at all as the other stocks in the basket will instantly increase in size to fill the gap.
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tmsf12

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Re: SAB
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2015, 12:40:21 pm »
Quote from: Patrick on September 18, 2015, 01:43:04 pm
I'm curious as to how that will affect the STXIND. SAB currently makes up 18.7% of the index, so it will have a significant impact.

Source: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/safm-market-update/understanding-the-markets-101-simon-brown-justonelap

Quote
PETER: Hi Siki. I’d like to ask the panel by how many points the JSE index will fall if SABMiller is delisted from the JSE, because every point is about R215m. In my estimation it should be about 11 000, about R2.3trn or R2.3bn – I’m not quite sure.

WAYNE McCURRIE: What’s the difference between a billion and a trillion between friends? [Chuckles]

PETER: I’m wondering – what’s the main thing?

SIKI MGABADELI: Thanks, Peter.

WAYNE McCURRIE: Interestingly the index won’t fall because SAB is removed from the listing. It doesn’t mean that money has disappeared or is lost, it’s just now possibly going to be listed somewhere else. So SA Breweries will come out of the index, but the index value won’t fall. So simplistically, if SA Breweries is 10% of the index and it cancels its listing on our stock market – its primary listing is already in London, this is only a secondary listing – then every other company in the index will become 10% bigger. But the index will not fall. So the index is only about price movements, the same as when British American Tobacco, which is bigger than SAB, listed on our market. The market didn’t go up 12%. Just the movement of that share from the day it lists affects the index.
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Patrick

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Re: SAB
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2015, 01:18:27 pm »
Thanks for that tmsf. If that's the case, then the holdings of all the other shares will rise by about 18.5% or so. That would mean that STXIND will have a holding in Naspers of 20.8%! That's quite high. At the moment I'm 50% STXIND and 50% DIVTRX, but I think I might go 33% STXIND and 67% DIVTRX in future to minimize my risk. It'll still mean I'll be around 10% invested in NPN though. More than I'd like, but I'll just have to hope Tencent continues strongly.
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Fawkes85

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Re: SAB
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2015, 01:43:28 pm »
Quote from: Patrick on September 23, 2015, 01:18:27 pm
Thanks for that tmsf. If that's the case, then the holdings of all the other shares will rise by about 18.5% or so. That would mean that STXIND will have a holding in Naspers of 20.8%! That's quite high. At the moment I'm 50% STXIND and 50% DIVTRX, but I think I might go 33% STXIND and 67% DIVTRX in future to minimize my risk. It'll still mean I'll be around 10% invested in NPN though. More than I'd like, but I'll just have to hope Tencent continues strongly.

I don't think that will necessarily happen that way. I stand corrected here, but isn't the Indi basically the Top40 minus all the resources? So if SAB is gone there will be a spot open on the Top40. If that spot is filled with a non-resources company then that company will fall under the Indi and thus will form part of STXIND's holdings.

I might be misunderstanding how everything works though.
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Mr_Dividend

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Re: SAB
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2015, 01:50:39 pm »
BTW  - STXFINI's  new make up:

Code    Share                                 weight    weight
BAT      Brait SE                               0.00%     3.83%
BGA      Barclays Africa Group Ltd              4.82%     4.82%
CCO      Capital & Counties Properties PLC      2.37%     2.34%
DSY      Discovery Ltd                          3.72%     3.74%
FSR      FirstRand Ltd                         13.70%    13.47%
GRT      Growthpoint Properties Ltd             5.56%     5.62%
INL      Investec Ltd                           2.30%     2.30%
INP      Investec plc                           5.64%     5.45%
ITU      Intu Properties plc                    5.24%     5.26%
MMI      MMI Holdings Ltd                       2.26%     0.00%
NED      Nedbank Group Ltd                      3.81%     3.78%
OML      Old Mutual plc                        16.60%    15.89%
REI      Reinet Investments SCA                 3.61%     3.56%
RMH      RMB Holdings Ltd                       3.83%     3.81%
RMI      Rand Merchant Insurance Holdings       2.57%     2.53%
         Ltd
SBK      Standard Bank Group Ltd               14.74%    14.55%
SLM      Sanlam Ltd                             9.23%     9.05%
                                              100.00%   100.00%
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