Author Topic: Readjusting portfolio.  (Read 1866 times)

Orca

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Readjusting portfolio.
« on: April 03, 2019, 10:07:44 pm »
With the ALSI in an upturn since the start of the year at long last it may be time to readjust one's portfolio.

I have neglected doing research over the past 5 years and just let my stocks slide so I must do something to keep a roof over my head.

STXIND has revived after a long slumber. We all must recall that she was the best performing ETF for many, many years doing a consistent 30%+ pa. Seems she will or is determined to get her status back and doing fine as of late. My first stable pick.

CML my old favourite stock for years and without her I would never have been able to retire early has at long last also revived. For the past 2 months she has once again been obeying the Bollinger Bands and the 20 SMA as she did for many years.
The performance of the ALSI has aided in this and if it continues for another month then CML will once again be as predictable as she always was. At this stage she has pushed above the upper BB and needs to get back to the 20 SMA.

These are my 2 picks and will wait for some retractment before buying.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2019, 10:11:45 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2019, 10:11:26 pm »
Well, that didn't pan out well.

STXIND took a whack thanks to The Orange Menace. As did most stocks.

CML just could not hold the price above the 20 SMA due to poor results as funds exited SA plus the poorer market performance over the past 6 months.

Seems like a flat market has become the new normal over the years and no reversal is even expected in the near future.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Bevan

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 08:48:39 pm »
...
Seems like a flat market has become the new normal over the years and no reversal is even expected in the near future.

I think flat would be nice. The concern is that we see a major correction. The Shiller CAPE ratio has only ever been higher two times before, once before the 1930's crash and the other during the irrational exuberance just before the dot.com crash. See https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe - did anyone say Netflix, UBER etc.... Definitely heard that language before i.e. we operate on negative margins but we make up for it with eyeballs / volumes.... yeah right....

Some are talking 1930's depression again. I realise I've held a contrarian bearish "anti-investor" approach for some time, preferring to trade the swings and re-invest my profits. This means I often get to ride the same price moves up and down, two or three times. I'm completely price agnostic at all times.

My view is that governments and banks got bailed out in 2007/2008. Then more money than the world has ever known got printed. Where did it go? To the super wealthy of course, initially via the FED and the bond market, taking US debt to over $22-trn now. Note how the Chinese, Japanese and other traditionally large US treasury buyers have stopped buying and are turning to gold instead.... But for central banks their gold holdings are simply a nice way to earn annuity returns i.e. playing gold loans vs. interest rate swaps.

The super wealthy, clever money has also definitely been leaving the market of late, along with those baby-boomer pension funds, now all retiring. But you can't see them. Why? Because all those bucketloads of money have ultimately also found their way to companies, and those companies cannot find any value in the market, just like Warren Buffet sitting on oodles of cash reserves. So what do they do to appease their stockholders? They've been buying their own stocks back, keeping prices afloat. Of course the largely uninformed middle classes have also been buying stocks like there's no tomorrow. Because of course stocks always keep going up.... right? So whilst banks and governments got taken out in 2007/2008 we now need to see ordinary stockholders and companies get taken out, to restore the balance a little and help wipe out that massive excess of printed money.

I doubt the US will default as they will simply go after people's pensions first i.e. take away social security (it goes bust circa 2030 anyway) and replace it with a basic income grant instead. Either way, we are heading for interesting times. The top 1% will of course do just fine. Warren Buffett also has his put options and others have largely diversified into gold, properties, farms with water, rare collectibles etc.

Having said all that, the Dow has had a nice retracement on May's drop and looks like it could run further still to 27,000. Then however things should get very interesting. Will there be enough steam and momentum to push it higher or will we start to see the cracks? We haven't had a decent market correction for over 10 years now. This next one could be dramatic because I don't see anyone prepared to step in and save markets this time...

Orca

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2019, 12:57:06 pm »
A 5 year flat market is as good as a correction.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

yozzi

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2019, 04:34:04 pm »
I've just managed to sell a property after it being a long time on the market and in light of the comments above where would you invest a large lump sum today as I have no intention of buying another property?

Bevan

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2019, 04:26:46 pm »
I've just managed to sell a property after it being a long time on the market and in light of the comments above where would you invest a large lump sum today as I have no intention of buying another property?

Bizarrely, productive agricultural land with water on site is an excellent investment longer term. Ask Dr. Michael Burry...
https://www.savingthegrace.com/blog/2018/7/25/why-michael-burry-of-the-big-short-is-investing-in-water-put-your-money-where-the-water-is

Unfortunately many risk-off markets have run already e.g. crypto-currencies, precious metals etc. Stock markets are very top-heavy. Bonds are in favour but only because everything else sucks. Private equity can probably offer decent returns. You might want to look at investing via Uprise.Africa or lending on RainFin. They are a little more risky but offering decent returns.

Collectibles are also offering decent returns. Classic cars, rare gold coins e.g. St. Gauden.... Read Simon's article on Sovereign Man...
https://www.sovereignman.com/international-diversification-strategies/the-most-interesting-way-to-buy-gold-today-23490/
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 04:28:58 pm by Bevan »

MoneyChief

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Re: Readjusting portfolio.
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2019, 03:49:37 pm »
I've just managed to sell a property after it being a long time on the market and in light of the comments above where would you invest a large lump sum today as I have no intention of buying another property?

I am in the same boat. Usually during a recession investors buy lots of government bonds, so I am leaning towards a portfolio that has a good percentage bonds.