The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Orca on July 10, 2015, 07:51:39 pm
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As I am done hyping CML now, I will start with a new one. PGR. The next CML.
CML seems saturated now and PGR is following it's big brother's footsteps but has the advantage of being more diversified in doing hedge funds and can make money in down markets for clients.
As shorting is not as lucrative as as longs, I was a bit hesitant to chuck my money at it due to the current market conditions but on further research, I was pleasantly surprised to find that in her first HY 2014 that she has to beat at end September, she made a great HEPS increase of 44%. During this period the market was negative as shown at "A" on the chart below.
This comparative period still has 3 months to go and the market is at 0% gain and not negative as shown at "B".
That is enough to convince me that her HEPS will carry on up in any market.
This is by no means advice but purely for discussion albeit only with myself.
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Wasatch Advisors, a very successful US UT company has today upped her stake in PGR to 6.71% of PGR shares. Wasatch Advisors has targeted emerging markets as the place to be and their preferred stocks are "value stocks".
At a PE of 11x, she is cheap.
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While I'm here, here is a chart for your perusal. Use the slider to scroll to the right to see how SA markets perform compared to Asia, UK and US. Emerging markets are top performers and this is the main reason I will keep my money in SA.
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All the numbers add up on this one, general sentiment is very positive and I will be opening a position in it (with the small holding I will sell in ACG).
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have had PGR for a while - bought a tiny amount at R16 then again later taking my avg cost to just under R20. 3% of my portfolio - so for me a smallish position. Pity as it's my second best performer, after capitec.
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Divi increased from 100 cps to 150. LDT is 31 July. :TU:
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Wow. PGR over did my expectations by surpassing it's pre divi price within 2 days. What a superb stock.
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I'm disappointed in the directors in taking zero cost collar hedges in their own company to protect their wealth.
Effectively they are shorting their own capabilities and does not reflect good management.
If they know something is up within the company, then it would be "insider trading". :wtf:
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This is my first post on this forum.
Cannot wait any longer as I'm hurting on PGR...
Been stalking local threads, financial news portals etc. for almost four years and mixed with some of my own research and info, made some solid direct share picks which have all (apart from SOL) served me well.
Took what I considered a 'gamble' on CML early 2012 and the results were always rewarding, until of course this year... I eventually bailed at R90 and again at R80, which now seems to have been a good move. My position in CML ended up being one of my larger weightings in my portfolio, which I was comfortable with, until recent times...
Like some others, I've also been eyeing PGR as a replacement for (or supplement to) CML for a long time and read this article the morning it came out:
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mymoney/moneyweb-financial-planning/coronation-peregrine-or-anchor-where-should-you-invest/
Also this: http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=4306808045001
The fact that it was relatively 'cheap', well managed with resilient growth prospects even in these trying times added to divis looking promising was all I needed to reaffirm my beliefs, so I went in, proper. I took a substantial position and right now, in the past week, there has been some very discouraging beneficiary activity with another one selling off in a serious way yesterday, showing in yet another share price drop today.
I am worried. Should I be? Or should I be running for more? :wtf:
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I am worried. Should I be? Or should I be running for more?
Trust me, u are not alone......
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There is no reason for her big swings of late. Tomorrow she will go up again or I will sneak back here when no body is looking and delete this post. :whistle:
I have lost count of the number of times I have been too afraid to look at my portfolio balance only to be smiling again after a few days. I have been avoiding looking at it like the plague this week.
Compare LON and MTA yesterday to today.
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I'm seeing a buying opportunity here and not the doom and gloom. :TU:
On a 1 or 2 year chart it looks like the perfect spot to pick up some discount.
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Tomorrow she will go up again or I will sneak back here when no body is looking and delete this post. :whistle:
I'm seeing a buying opportunity here and not the doom and gloom. :TU:
Mmm... another 4% down in less than an hour this morning... Hope to heavens you are all 100% right. We all know (or rather hope... believe...) that this is just temporary, but exactly how temporary is 'temporary'...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/markets-ride-wave-of-global-meltdown-fears.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/21/stock-markets-tumble-global-growth-china-ftse100-live
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I see there was yet another sale by a PGR director on Tuesday. Same one as last week.
http://www.peregrine.co.za/SENSRead.aspx?cid=cbd9a227-3afd-4763-ba4e-bc50c1dbc0fa
Not comforting if they seem to have little faith during these times - I would have preferred seeing directors buy at these cheap prices... What's up?
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I think assert management companies will always be market multipliers. If the markets do well their finds will increase in value, and beat targets meaning earnings will be high. If the market suffers the opposite will occur, as well as investors leaving funds, so their loss will be greater than the market. I imagine the directors are thinking that the volatility is far from over, so are casing in for that reason. There's no news to indicate that the company is badly run all of a sudden.
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There's no news to indicate that the company is badly run all of a sudden.
Good, thanks, because I'm betting a lot of money on that...
Don't think I've watched the markets and individual movers this closely since the day I made my first share purchase
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Seems like they were hedging against a possible market collapse and not against the company's performance.
@Broke. People who actively monitor stocks ultimately end up wealthier than those that do not. :TU:
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Actually, once read something that said that the best performing portfolios are those where they are:
Ether in probate, the owner has died or the owner has forgotten about them.
Very much the opposite of watching them :D
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Actually, once read something that said that the best performing portfolios are those where they are:
Ether in probate, the owner has died or the owner has forgotten about them.
Very much the opposite of watching them :D
Well this owner might just die from watching them... ???
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Still waiting in anticipation for PGR to turn... Losing a little faith I must say...
I'm 11% down and counting.
The 3-month view versus its peers not looking good at all - even worse than CML from which I sold out to move to PGR...
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1444921200000&chddm=30784&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=JSE:ACG;JSE:CML;JSE:PCT&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=JSE:PGR&ntsp=1&ei=p4QfVuHKMMSGmAHWso-QCg (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1444921200000&chddm=30784&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=JSE:ACG;JSE:CML;JSE:PCT&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=JSE:PGR&ntsp=1&ei=p4QfVuHKMMSGmAHWso-QCg)
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PGR normally comes out with a "Trading Statement" in the 3'rd week of October if needed. So wait till next week and if one does then we will see her surge upwards.
Perhaps investors were selling to switch to Sygnia. If so then that is over now.
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itradedata estimates their Sep 2015 interim results to be out 11th November....another month to ride out......
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At current prices their P/E is below 10 and their P/BV is 1.9. If I were you, and had the cash, I would stock up on some more Peregrine! Selling at a discount
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Investec, 36ONE, allan gray all still hold..(not sure how credible PIC is is :LHST: :LHST: ) dont think its worth panicking just yet.. fingers crossed
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itradedata estimates their Sep 2015 interim results to be out 11th November....another month to ride out......
Their Trading Statement will come out next week. If it does, then she will start pricing in the interim results in November.
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From moneyweb today before the acquisition SENS.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/following-the-cash-on-the-jse
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Acquisition SENS? for PGR? Howcome i didnt get one in my inbox from my broker........ Can you link it please Mr Orca? or are you referring to the ADI or EOH acquisitions?
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Acquisition SENS? for PGR? Howcome i didnt get one in my inbox from my broker........ Can you link it please Mr Orca? or are you referring to the ADI or EOH acquisitions?
You are correct. It was ADI and not PGR. My brain is getting soft now. My apologies. :-X
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http://www.peregrine.co.za/SENSRead.aspx?cid=8fa6e57e-18c2-4b24-b362-626feed96c4b
And now?
What was IAM's holdings before?
"... shareholders are advised that Peregrine has received notification from Investec Asset
Management Holdings Proprietary Limited ("IAM") of the disposal by IAM, on behalf of its segregated
clients, of Peregrine shares such that IAM´s total beneficial interest, on behalf of such segregated clients, is
now 9,875% of Peregrine´s total issued ordinary shares, including treasury shares."
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http://www.peregrine.co.za/SENSRead.aspx?cid=8fa6e57e-18c2-4b24-b362-626feed96c4b
And now?
What was IAM's holdings before?
"... shareholders are advised that Peregrine has received notification from Investec Asset
Management Holdings Proprietary Limited ("IAM") of the disposal by IAM, on behalf of its segregated
clients, of Peregrine shares such that IAM´s total beneficial interest, on behalf of such segregated clients, is
now 9,875% of Peregrine´s total issued ordinary shares, including treasury shares."
I see it's not major... was just above 10%
I'm a little sensitive about this one as it has just started to grow a pair this week- not yet ready for another dip...
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Just close your eyes :TU:
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This happens all the time. It always spooked me when I had CML under my microscope but she kept hurtling on up after.
The FSB sets mandates for UT's to only hold a certain percentage in sectors so when the weightings change over time, they have to correct it.
What worries me is that the Trading Statement should have been out by now so we might be under 20% gain in HEPS for the first time in years.
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If I look at historic sens announcements it seems that for the September 2014 unaudited results were released on 12th November 2015, and based on their fact sheet interims are indicated as being announced on 12 November 2015 - so it seems a little patience is needed for the results
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Trading Statements are usually out 17-20 October.
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MoneyWeb Article today on Peregrine: backing what Orca and others have been saying all along.
Especially in the light of CMLs performance-fee based struggle, PGR looks to be by far the more sound investment going forward.
If only the share price will start to reflect this!
http://today.moneyweb.co.za/article?id=530482&acid=W7w%2B2BgoujceZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&adid=zxbLu18uLOMzlOOOYw3skQ%3D%3D&date=2015-11-12#.VkRCNbcrL4Y (http://today.moneyweb.co.za/article?id=530482&acid=W7w%2B2BgoujceZeuwhd4cWQ%3D%3D&adid=zxbLu18uLOMzlOOOYw3skQ%3D%3D&date=2015-11-12#.VkRCNbcrL4Y)
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A return of 30% for this year is not to be scoffed at. My benchmark is the INDI25 or STXIND has had a return of 20% in this time frame. The ALSI was much less at 5%.
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A return of 30% for this year is not to be scoffed at. My benchmark is the INDI25 or STXIND has had a return of 20% in this time frame. The ALSI was much less at 5%.
I know - which together with some solid technicals and operational model is exactly the reason I switched from CML to PGR.
But this is my view:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1447426800000&chddm=32227&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=JSE:PGR&ntsp=0&ei=aLhFVsGcNc2QUJy_ubgI
Time the market, they say... Make some money, they say... :-[
I realise it is temporary and there's ongoing good news supporting them, so I'll ride it out. It just hurts n the short term :frustrated:
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Negative 8% so far for the day... -12% for the week...
Thinking back on the day I purchased PGR, my alternative was DBXUS...
This will take a while to make-up... if ever.
Thank you SA Inc.
:'(
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Funny you should say that. My DBXUS is offsetting the fall in my SA ETFs almost equally. I'm able to bet against SA while still acquiring quality dividend / income shares here at home. That US rate increase will aid this process further.
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@broker
what price did you buy pgr???
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@broker
what price did you buy pgr???
Sorry only saw this now...
Bought PGR at just about R30... thought it was a bargain at the time. promise.
So: can someone tell me - are we still acquiring 'good quality shares at a good price'?!?! :frustrated:
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Hi
Peregrine has very good fundamentals!! Be patient!! A lot of foreign money has left SA. Peregrine has also been effected. They have managed to hold their own these last 3 weeks despite heavy market volatility!!!
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Thanks! Yup - in it for the long run I suppose.
I guess it was time for me to learn that it would be unfair to expect two CML-like bull runs in rapid succession...
However, I also believe that PGR is well (best?) positioned to capitalise once (when?) the tide turns. For that I ported virtually everything (a little too late) from CML to PGR.
Learnt some expensive lessons as fall-out from a greedy binge in Q3-Q4 last year.
I do believe that everything I bought are good shares that will stand the test of time... just frustrated that I could have picked them up for a lot less now.
And then of course there's my DBX'ers staring me in the face... laughing at me for not going with my gut at 13.50 to the $...
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DBX very bad dividend payers!!!
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DBX very bad dividend payers!!!
Hehe - also true, but our beloved ZAR made up for all of that!
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DBX very bad dividend payers!!!
Hehe - also true, but our beloved ZAR made up for all of that!
Good article on Moneyweb today. The JSE was the 3rd best performing market in the world for the past 111 years in Dollar terms.
InBev did not look at hedging the dollar or euro when they looked at SAB and it's holdings in ZAR.
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DBX very bad dividend payers!!!
Hehe - also true, but our beloved ZAR made up for all of that!
Good article on Moneyweb today. The JSE was the 3rd best performing market in the world for the past 111 years in Dollar terms.
InBev did not look at hedging the dollar or euro when they looked at SAB and it's holdings in ZAR.
Link please Orca.
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RYK VAN NIEKERK: But investors see rands, obviously the return in rands is the currency in South Africa, how should investors then look at it?
HLELO GIYOSE: Don’t spend time thinking about that. For the last 111 years, whether you splice this over the full 111 years, 50 years, 75 years, 20 years, South Africa is the third-best performing stock market in the world in dollar terms. So what does that say about that rand thesis?
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/market-commentator-moneyweb-radio/when-volatility-happens-find-certainty/
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Was alluded to before. http://shareforum.co.za/shares/cherrypicking-tapouts/msg12564/#msg12564
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Was alluded to before. http://shareforum.co.za/shares/cherrypicking-tapouts/msg12564/#msg12564
I posted charts of the JSE INDI vs foreign large markets and it showed a similar performance. Investors see the weakening ZAR and scramble to get out without looking at the bigger picture.
They fail to realize that getting out creates a tax event and other costs and before they realize, the SA markets and the ZAR has normalized and gaining in value. Then they have to get the money back causing more expenses.
We have lived through many downgrades and ZAR/USD peaks and still managed to do better locally on a longer term.
Dawie Roodt is not a fool when he said last week that after every ZAR surge in weakness, it rapidly corrects and this may just happen as soon as next month and the boat is missed.