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Stan NordFX:
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 03 – 07 June 2024

EUR/USD: Awaiting a Turbulent Week

Recall that Monday, 27 May was a holiday in the US. However, on Tuesday, dollar bulls took control, and the DXY Index started to rise, bolstered by a significant increase in the US Consumer Confidence Index (from 97.5 to 102.0 against a forecast of 96.0). Consequently, EUR/USD moved southward.

Pressure on the euro was also due to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.50% to 4.25% at its meeting on 06 June. This intention was confirmed by the head of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, who stated on Monday that he considered it timely to transition to dovish rhetoric in June. Similar opinions were expressed by his colleague François Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France, and on Tuesday, 28 May, by Robert Holzmann, head of the Bank of Austria.

Unlike the dovish stance of European officials, representatives of the Federal Reserve (Fed) take a more stringent position and want to ensure that US inflation is steadily moving towards the 2.0% target.

Recall that the report released on 15 May by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) against a forecast of 0.4%. Year-on-year, inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Retail sales demonstrated an even stronger decline, dropping from 0.6% to 0.0% m/m (forecast was 0.4%). These data indicated that although inflation is resisting in some areas, it is generally declining. If previously market participants expected the first rate cut at the end of 2024 or even early 2025, after the publication of this data, talks about a possible Fed rate cut already this autumn resumed. Before the release of the preliminary US GDP data, the probability of a rate cut in September was 41%.

The report published on Thursday, 30 May by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that, according to preliminary data, US economic growth in Q1 slowed significantly to an annualized rate of 1.3%, below the forecast of 1.6% and Q4 2023's figure of 3.4%.

Experts attribute the weak GDP growth at the beginning of this year mainly to the dynamics of consumer spending. In Q1, consumer spending increased by 2.0%, not the previously expected 2.5%. The US Department of Commerce's revised data also changed the assessment of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes energy and food prices. At the end of Q1, the figure was 3.6%, not 3.7%. Analysts believe that this decline in all indicators was caused by a combination of factors: the depletion of funds accumulated by the population during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed's cycle of monetary tightening, and restrained income growth.

Against this backdrop, the dollar weakened slightly, and EUR/USD moved north. It received another bullish impulse after Eurostat presented on Friday, 31 May, a preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone, which accelerated for the first time this year. Thus, the annual growth rate of consumer prices (CPI) in May was 2.6% compared to 2.4% in April, the lowest since November last year. The consensus forecast expected inflation to accelerate only to 2.5%. Core inflation (CPI Core), which excludes energy and food prices, also increased from 2.7% in April to 2.9% in May (forecast was 2.8%). This was a wake-up call for investors who had hoped that the ECB would not only cut rates once this year but continue to do so.

Towards the end of the working week, market attention focused on US consumer market data. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation in the country, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, remained stable in April at 2.7% y/y. The Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% y/y, matching the forecast. Other report details showed that personal incomes rose by 0.3% m/m in April, while personal spending increased by 0.2%.

After these data, the DXY Dollar Index was under slight pressure, and EUR/USD received a third bullish impulse. However, it did not last long, and ultimately, after all these fluctuations, EUR/USD returned to the Pivot Point of the last two and a half weeks, finishing at 1.0848. Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 31 May, all of them (100%) voted for the dollar to strengthen. This forecast is understandable given the expected ECB decision on a rate cut on 06 June. But what if it doesn't happen? Or perhaps this forecast has already been priced into the market? In that case, instead of the dollar strengthening, we could see the opposite reaction.

All trend indicators on D1 are 100% green, while only 50% of oscillators are green, with 15% red and 35% neutral-grey.

The nearest support for the pair lies in the 1.0830-1.0840 zone, followed by 1.0800-1.0810, 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are in the regions of 1.0880-1.0895, 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week seems to be very eventful and volatile. On Monday, 03 June, and Wednesday, 05 June, the US Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released. On 04, 06, and 07 June, there will be a slew of statistics from the US labour market, including Friday's crucial data on the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs (NFP). The most turbulent day of the week, however, is likely to be Thursday, 06 June. On this day, retail sales data for the Eurozone will be released first, followed by the ECB meeting. The market will be focused not only on the ECB's rate decision but also on the subsequent press conference and comments on future monetary policy.

GBP/USD: Foggy Times, Foggy Forecasts

We've previously written that the prospects for the British currency, as well as the national economy, look rather foggy. The Business Activity Index (PMI) showed a decline, and not just it. Much of the pessimism is related to the sharp drop in retail sales in April, which fell by 2.7% y/y compared to the previous growth rate of 0.4%. Additional uncertainty comes from the fact that snap parliamentary elections are scheduled for 04 July. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that "economic instability is just the beginning." This sounds frightening, doesn't it? If this is just the beginning, what lies ahead? Surprisingly, despite this situation, the pound has been strengthening since 22 April. During this period, GBP/USD rose by 500 points and on 28 May recorded a local maximum at the round figure of 1.2800.

Regarding the timing of the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate cut, everything also seems as foggy as the Thames mist. JP Morgan (JPM) analysts, while adhering to their forecast for a rate cut in August, warn that "the risks have clearly shifted towards a later reduction. The question now is whether the Bank of England will be able to ease its policy at all this year." Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC strategists have also adjusted their rate cut forecasts, moving the date from June to August.

GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2741. Economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that the current strengthening of the British currency has ended. UOB considers that over the next 1-3 weeks, "the pound is likely to trade with a downward bias, but a more significant pullback would require breaking below 1.2670. On the other hand, if the pound breaks above 1.2770 (the 'strong resistance' level), it would indicate that it will likely trade within a range rather than pulling back lower."

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is as follows: 75% voted for the pair to move south, while the remaining 25% voted for a northward movement.

As for technical analysis, unlike the experts, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, although 15% of the latter signal overbought conditions. If the pair continues to fall, support levels and zones are at 1.2670-1.2700, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2540, 1.2445-1.2465, 1.2405, 1.2300-1.2330. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2885-1.2900.

No significant economic statistics are scheduled to be released in the UK next week.

continued below...

Stan NordFX:
USD/JPY: A Very Calm Week


The past week was surprisingly calm for the yen. USD/JPY moved within a super-narrow sideways channel of 156.60-157.00 for the first half of the week, but then, amid US data and Japanese macro statistics, the trading range expanded slightly to 156.36-157.70. Compared to the price swings at the end of April and early May, it's hard to believe this is the same currency pair. Interestingly, Japanese financial authorities have not officially confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. However, Bloomberg reports that comparing deposits at the Bank of Japan suggests that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, a new monthly record for such financial operations.

However, if this $60 billion helped, it was only slightly – the dollar has already recovered half of its losses. Since interest rates in the US and Europe have not yet decreased, and the yen rate remains extremely low at 0.1%, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are trying to buy time until this gap starts to narrow. Comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi, who stated on 30 May that the Japanese central bank leaders could raise the interest rate, provided some support for the yen. However, the question of when this might happen remains open, and officials are reluctant to answer. In his traditional speech on Friday, 31 May, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, reiterated that exchange rates should reflect fundamental indicators and that he would respond appropriately to excessive movements.

On Friday, 31 May, a block of important macroeconomic statistics on the state of the Japanese economy was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo showed that inflation rose to 2.2% y/y in May. In April, this figure was at 1.8%, matching a 26-month low. Core inflation in Tokyo also rose to 1.9% from 1.6% y/y, and the CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2% y/y. (It should be noted that inflation in Tokyo is usually higher than the nationwide figures, which are published three weeks later. Therefore, the Tokyo CPI is a preliminary but not final indicator of inflation dynamics at the national level.)

The current rise in inflation could increase confidence in future BoJ monetary policy tightening. However, the fear of low inflation and a sharp yen appreciation deters the BoJ from raising the interest rate and narrowing the gap with other major global currencies' rates. A strong yen would harm national exporters. The decline in industrial production, which fell by -0.1% in April both month-on-month and year-on-year, does not encourage borrowing costs to rise.

The last note of the week for USD/JPY was struck at 157.25. United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts believe that in the next 1-3 weeks, "the dollar has the potential for growth, but given the weak upward momentum, any advancement is likely to be slow. The 157.50 level might be difficult to overcome, and resistance at 158.00 is unlikely to be reached in the near future."

Speaking of the average forecast of experts, only 20% indicate a southward direction, while the remaining 80% adopt a neutral position and look east. Technical analysis tools show no such doubts or disagreements. Thus, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 15% already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that if the green/north color of the indicators for the euro and the British pound indicates their strengthening, in the case of the yen, it conversely indicates its weakening. Therefore, traders may find it interesting to pay attention to the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs, whose dynamics have been impressive lately.

The nearest support level is in the area of 156.25-156.60, followed by zones and levels at 155.50-155.90, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the 157.40 zone, followed by 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.

No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bullish and Bearish Ethereum Prospects

For the second week, market participants' attention has been focused on the main altcoin. On 23 May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 applications from eight issuers of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. (According to JP Morgan experts, this was dictated not by a desire to support digital assets but by a political decision aimed at supporting Joe Biden ahead of the US presidential elections.) Whatever the true reason for this regulatory move, everyone is now interested in where Ethereum prices will go.

The newborn ETH-ETFs can only start trading after the SEC approves the S-1 applications. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this could take "weeks or months," although it is very likely to happen in mid-June. According to DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong, Ethereum's price could rise to $4,500 even before trading begins. CCData analysts believe that within 100 days of the launch of ETH-ETFs, the price could reach $5,000 per coin. This forecast is based on linear regression and the price statistics of bitcoin after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. CCData's analysis assumes that inflows into similar Ethereum funds will be at least 50% of inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, which means about $3.9 billion over a 100-day period.

Popular analyst Lark Davis has forecasted future growth for bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $15,000, explaining such a sharp price increase by the emerging market dynamics. The main reason for growth, Davis also cites spot BTC-ETFs, to which ETH-ETFs will now join. This will further fuel the cryptocurrency market's enthusiasm. Currently, spot BTC-ETFs hold 1,002,343 coins (≈ $68 billion), which is about 5% of the circulating supply of the flagship asset. Davis believes this impressive figure clearly indicates growing recognition of cryptocurrency and interest from institutional investors, especially from the US.

Strike CEO Jack Mallers predicts that during the ongoing bull rally, bitcoin could reach $250,000 and possibly rise in price to $1 million. On a podcast with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Mallers explained his bold forecast by stating that bitcoin is still at an early stage of development. According to him, the bond market is currently facing problems, so central banks may inject a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system to stabilize it. This liquidity influx will trigger an increase in the value of risky assets, including the leading cryptocurrency.

Jack Mallers disagrees with the notion that bitcoin is a bubble or a tool for speculation. The asset is becoming increasingly popular among financial giants on Wall Street, and its limited supply of 21 million coins makes BTC highly resistant to inflation, unlike fiat currencies and gold. "Bitcoin can be called the hardest form of money – thanks to the fixed issuance schedule and halvings every four years. The release rate of new coins gradually decreases, thereby increasing bitcoin's long-term value," argued the Strike CEO.

Analysts from financial investment company Motley Fool also target a six-figure number. They suggested that bitcoin's rate could rise to $400,000 and possibly even reach $1 million. The reason, which has been mentioned many times, is the influx of money from institutional investors through spot ETFs. Motley Fool analysts noted that more and more pension funds and hedge funds, managing multi-billion dollar sums, are entering the bitcoin market. Thanks to cryptocurrency ETFs, they can easily include bitcoin (and soon Ethereum) in their investment portfolios.

According to analysts, around 700 investment companies have already invested in such funds. Nevertheless, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin-ETFs is currently only about 10% of the total. Motley Fool estimates that if financial institutions invest about 5% of their assets in bitcoin, the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $7 trillion, which explains its forecasted rate of $400,000.

Considerably less optimism was heard in the forecast of Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, bitcoin's volatility leaves it trailing gold and the US dollar in investment appeal. Furthermore, he believes that stocks will soon crash amid the expected recession, but BTC will suffer even more than the stock market. McGlone emphasized that the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, typically trades twice as much per day as bitcoin. "I can access the US dollar anywhere in the world from my phone using Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It's the number one cryptocurrency for trading. It's the dollar. The whole world has moved to the dollar. Why? Because it's the least bad of all fiat currencies," the Bloomberg expert stated.

While Mike McGlone merely downgraded bitcoin's attractiveness, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson simply buried it. He equated bitcoin to a religion and stated that the industry has outgrown its dependence on it. According to Hoskinson, "the industry no longer needs bitcoin to survive." He pointed out critical threats to the leading cryptocurrency, including insufficient adaptability and dependence on the Proof-of-Work algorithm.

Franklin Templeton analysts, on the contrary, consider L2 protocols, along with Ordinals, Runes, and DeFi primitives, as one of the main drivers of bitcoin's innovation revival. Strike CEO Jack Mallers defended the first cryptocurrency. According to him, the Lightning Network, created for instant and cheap transactions, a second-layer solution based on the BTC blockchain, can further increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency. Mallers believes that thanks to this, bitcoin can be used for everyday purchases, such as paying for a cup of coffee. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the native token of the Cardano blockchain (ADA) "dog shit" due to its low use in protocols.

As of the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 31 May, ADA is trading at 0.45 USD per coin, while bitcoin and Ethereum are faring significantly better: BTC/USD is trading at $67,600, and ETH/USD at $3,790. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion ($2.55 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained almost unchanged over 7 days, staying in the Greed zone at 73 points (74 a week ago).

It should be noted that ETH/USD failed to break through the $4,000 resistance this past week. The local maximum was recorded on Monday, 27 May, at $3,974. The lack of an immediate pump is explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the SEC's historic decision already did so. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, there is a high probability that immediately after the launch of the long-awaited spot exchange funds, Ethereum will enter a deep drawdown, similar to what happened in January with bitcoin. Then, over 12 days, it fell by 21%.

One of the key reasons for BTC's drawdown at that time was the unlocking of GBTC fund assets from Grayscale, which was converted into a spot fund from a trust. It began losing investments daily at a rate of $500 million. It is possible that something similar could happen with Ethereum, where Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $11 billion worth of ETH. As soon as this fund is converted into a spot fund and its assets are unlocked, short-term investors might start taking profits, potentially causing ETH/USD to fall to the strong support zone of $2,900-3,200.

Pessimists among bearish factors also cite the uncertain legal status of the altcoin, as the SEC has not yet clearly defined whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Additionally, the regulator has many complaints about the staking program.

Staking is a way to earn cryptocurrency by "locking" a certain amount of coins in a wallet on the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm to support the network. In return, the user receives rewards in the form of additional coins. According to Wall Street legend Peter Brandt, "the biggest disasters in the cryptocurrency sphere that are yet to happen will be related to staking." The expert noted that such assets as Ethereum are often rented out to earn such income, often in the form of interest, which strongly reminds him of collapsed financial pyramids. As staking becomes more widespread, Brandt warned, it could attract increased attention from central banks, treasuries, and other authorities. This could lead to tighter regulation, significantly altering the crypto space and potentially resulting in the cessation of staking and bankruptcies for those involved.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX:
May Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders' Monthly Profit Approaches $200,000


The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading results of its clients for May 2024. The performance of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit earned by the company's IB partners were also evaluated.

- The leading trader for the month is from Western Asia, account No. 1773XXX, with a profit of $86,999. This impressive result was achieved through gold (XAU/USD) transactions.
- The second place goes to another trader from Western Asia, account No. 1771XXX, who earned $78,556 not only from gold (XAU/USD) but also from EUR/USD trades.
- In third place is a trader from Southeast Asia, account No. 1734XXX, who earned $30,640 in May through transactions involving XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY.

The following situation has developed in NordFX's passive investment services:

- In the PAMM service showcase, we continue to monitor the activity of the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. Their account, KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA, can be considered a veteran, having been opened in January 2021. Over 1,223 days, it has faced many serious challenges. A critical date was November 15, 2022, when the manager decided to close loss-making positions. The drawdown then was almost 43%, but the account was saved, and the profit now exceeds 100% again.

- In CopyTrading, we have repeatedly highlighted the signal yahmat-forex, which has shown a 353% return over 344 days with a maximum drawdown of 47%. Another signal, NordFXSrilanka, reached a 36% profit over 145 days. Although not as high, it significantly exceeds bank deposit rates. This signal stands out for its maximum drawdown, which has not exceeded 10% throughout its duration. Among startups in CopyTrading, the signal copyfx1 is noteworthy. In 49 days of operation, specifically since April 11, 2024, it has shown a 98% profit with a very moderate drawdown of less than 16%. Despite these impressive achievements, it is important to remind that past results do not guarantee future performance and that trading in financial markets is risky. Therefore, market participants should exercise extreme caution and always adhere to money management principles to avoid losing funds.

Among NordFX IB partners, the TOP-3 is as follows:

- The highest commission of the month, amounting to 22,795 USD, was awarded to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX;
- The second place was taken by a partner from Southern Asia, account No. 1718XXX, who received 8,362 USD;
- Completing the top three is their compatriot, account No. 1682XXX, who earned 8,233 USD in May.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX:
CryptoNews of the Week


– The first cryptocurrency has once again risen above the $70,000 mark. The Hash Ribbons indicator is giving an “optimal signal” for buying digital gold in the coming weeks, suggesting a resumption of the asset’s rally, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. The metric indicates miner capitulation that began two weeks ago, a period when the 30-day moving average hash rate falls below the 60-day average.
Edwards notes that miner capitulation occurs approximately once a year, usually linked to shutdowns, bankruptcies, acquisitions, or halving events. The recent miner capitulation was observed in 2023 when bitcoin traded around $20,000. If a new growth impulse occurs, the next medium-term target will be $100,000. However, entering the traditionally quiet summer financial market could delay this upward momentum, Edwards warns.

– The analyst known as Rekt Capital believes that to enter a “parabolic growth phase,” digital gold will need to confidently overcome the resistance zone of $72,000-$73,000. Popular cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez predicts that BTC will likely test the price range of $79,600. The Artificial Intelligence tool PricePredictions has determined that in the coming days, bitcoin could not only firmly consolidate above the crucial $70,000 mark but also continue to rise, reaching $75,245 by the end of June. This forecast is based on technical analysis indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

– On 2 June, Dogecoin token graphic designer known as DogeDesigner discovered a live stream on YouTube featuring a deepfake of Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk promoting a cryptocurrency scam. The fake Musk offers users to scan a QR code on the screen leading to a giveaway site. "On the site, you can deposit any amount of bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin without any registration. Once you do, you'll receive double the amount of the deposited cryptocurrency," promises the fake entrepreneur. The scammers' channel closely resembles the official Tesla page and even has nearly 15,000 subscribers, while the original has 2.65 million.

– Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya discussed one pathway for the mass adoption of bitcoin on the All-In podcast, predicting its price could rise to $500,000. The billionaire explained that the “powerful concept” of digital gold adoption was elucidated to him by Xapo CEO Wences Casares, an Argentine entrepreneur in venture investment.
Casares believes more countries will notice bitcoin while retaining their national currencies, effectively becoming dual-currency nations. One asset will be used for transactions with everyday goods and services, while the other – cryptocurrency – will act as a store of value. The United States could be among the first to follow this path, according to the entrepreneur.
Palihapitiya also noted that Casares suggested analysing bitcoin dynamics after halvings. The investor observed that the cryptocurrency's highest growth occurred 12-18 months post-event. Palihapitiya predicts that if the growth trajectory following the third halving repeats, bitcoin's price could reach $500,000 by October 2025. Taking the average of the last two cycles, the price target could be $1.14 million.

– According to a recent Harris Poll, geopolitical tension and inflation are prompting an increasing number of American voters to turn to bitcoin. The poll, sponsored by BTC-ETF issuer Grayscale, revealed that one in three U.S. voters will consider a Presidential candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies before casting their vote. The survey polled over 1,700 potential U.S. voters, 77% of whom believe Presidential candidates should have at least some understanding of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 47% of respondents plan to include cryptocurrency in their investment portfolios, up from 40% last year. Notably, following the approval of BTC-ETF, 9% of elderly voters also reported increased interest in investing in bitcoin or other crypto assets.

– The founder of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, has entered a federal high-security prison in California, where he will spend the next four months. The crypto community quickly expressed support for the former Binance CEO. A Reddit user, Ilsemprelaziale, commented that Zhao's imprisonment is a step to protect the crypto exchange and the entire industry from potential risks. "If the FTX collapse hit cryptocurrency hard, just imagine what would happen if Binance fell. But he pleaded guilty and stepped down as CEO," Ilsemprelaziale wrote.
After the sentencing, Changpeng Zhao shared plans for his post-prison life, stating he will continue to be actively involved in the crypto community. For instance, the former Binance head plans to engage in passive investing using his existing crypto assets.

– Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas urged his followers to buy bitcoin to protect against the devaluation of national currencies and preserve their savings. The owner of Salinas Group, whose wealth is estimated at over $14 billion, cited the fall of the Nigerian naira as an example.
Currently, Nigeria's official currency is experiencing a difficult period, prompting the local government to take several stabilization measures. The country's authorities have also tightened their stance on cryptocurrency companies – in March, the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission proposed increasing the registration fee by 400%. The head of Binance’s Financial Crimes Compliance unit, Tigran Gambaryan, is still imprisoned in Nigeria on charges of tax evasion.

– The crypto wallets of well-known personalities have long attracted the attention of curious community members. One of the largest holders of cryptocurrency, as it turns out, is the founder of Tron, Justin Sun, who, according to Arkham Intelligence, owns crypto assets worth $1.03 billion. His largest reserves are in USDD stablecoins, valued at $276 million. Additionally, Arkham calculated that he holds $240 million in TRX and about $100 million in BTC.
The wealth of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is estimated to be a comparable amount at $935 million, with most of his holdings in ETH, valued at over $930 million. Pop stars' holdings are significantly smaller. For example, singer Justin Bieber owns ETH tokens worth about $575,000. Socialite Paris Hilton has digital assets worth only $53,000.

– Tether (USDT stablecoins) co-founder, former actor, and 2020 U.S. presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that Chinese authorities will lift the cryptocurrency ban. “Will China become open to cryptocurrencies? I can say it's inevitable. The main question is not whether it will happen, but when it will happen,” he stated.
In 2021, the Chinese government included the trading and mining of digital assets in the list of illegal activities. However, a grey crypto market has developed in the country. Pierce believes Hong Kong could become China’s cryptocurrency trading hub. However, this is not currently the case, as the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of this administrative region of China has prohibited local companies from providing digital asset services to mainland China residents. As a result, many firms have withdrawn their applications for virtual currency trading licenses submitted to the SFC.

– CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, predicted which crypto asset could become a serious contender for launching new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. Over the past year, the most impressive results were shown by the cryptocurrency Solana. At the end of 2023, SOL was trading around $21, but by March 2024, it had exceeded $200, showing nearly tenfold growth. Currently, SOL is valued at around $172 and ranks among the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Given Solana's current status, Novogratz is confident that this altcoin has every chance to be included in the pool of spot ETFs. Recently, Brian Kelly, CEO of investment company BKCM, expressed a similar view.
Responding to Novogratz, the crypto enthusiast known as Digital Asset Investor suggested that SOL's price increase was due to the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange in autumn 2022 and “too many connections with the authorities.”


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Stan NordFX:
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 10 – 14 June 2024

EUR/USD: Who Controls the Financial Market

It is clear that interest rates rule the markets, not only in terms of actual changes but also regarding expectations about the timing and magnitude of future changes. From spring 2022 to mid-2023, the focus was on raising rates; now, the expectation has shifted towards their reduction. Traders are still uncertain about the Federal Reserve's decisions and timing, leading them to scrutinize macroeconomic statistics primarily for their impact on the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the regulator.

At the beginning of last week, the dollar was under pressure due to weak data on business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector. On Monday, 3 June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing activity in the country decreased in May from 49.2 to 48.7 points (forecast 49.6). As the index remained in contraction territory (below 50), there was renewed speculation among traders and investors about a possible Fed rate cut in September.

The US currency received some support from business activity data in the services sector. This time, the PMI was 53.8 points, higher than both the previous value of 49.4 and the forecast of 50.8, which slightly pleased the dollar bulls.

Thursday, 6 June, was relatively calm. The European Central Bank's Governing Council lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, as expected. This step fully aligned with forecasts and was already factored into EUR/USD  quotes. Notably, the ECB had not lowered rates since 2019, began raising them in July 2022, and kept them unchanged at the same level during the last five meetings. Since September 2023, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased by more than 2.5%, allowing the regulator to take this step for the first time in a long while.

The ECB's statement following the meeting indicated that despite the rate cut, its monetary policy remains restrictive. The regulator forecasts that inflation will likely remain above the 2.0% target this year and next. Therefore, interest rates will remain at restrictive levels as long as necessary to achieve the inflation goal. The ECB raised its forecast for inflation, now expecting CPI to average 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026м.

As mentioned, the ECB's current decision was fully anticipated by the market, as predicted by all 82 economists surveyed by Reuters at the end of May. The more intriguing aspect is what will happen next. More than two-thirds of Reuters respondents (55 out of 82) believe that the ECB's Governing Council will cut the rate twice more this year – in September and December. This figure has increased compared to the April survey, where just over half of the economists made such a prediction.

A local triumph for the dollar bulls occurred on Friday, 7 June, when the US Department of Labour report was released. The number of new jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) was 272K in May, compared to the expected 185K. This result was significantly higher than the revised April figure of 165K. The data also showed a more substantial than expected increase in the average hourly earnings, an inflationary indicator, which grew by 0.4%, double the previous value of 0.2% and one and a half times higher than the forecast of 0.3%. The only slight negative was the unemployment rate, which unexpectedly rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. However, overall, this data benefited the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair, having bounced off the upper boundary of the 3.5-week sideways channel at 1.0900, ended the five-day period at its lower boundary of 1.0800.

Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near future, as of the evening of 7 June, it is quite vague: 40% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and an equal number (40%) for its fall, with the remaining 20% maintaining neutrality. Technical analysis also provides no clear guidance. Among trend indicators on D1, 25% are green and 75% are red. Among oscillators, 25% are green, 15% neutral-grey, and 60% red, though a third of them signal the pair is oversold. The nearest support levels are 1.0785, then 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0600-1.0620. Resistance zones are at 1.0865-1.0895, then 1.0925-1.0940, 1.0980-1.1010, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming week also promises to be quite interesting. The key day will be Wednesday, 12 June. On this day, consumer inflation (CPI) data for Germany and the United States will be released, followed by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Fed. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. Therefore, market participants will be more focused on the FOMC's Economic Projections Summary and the subsequent press conference by the Fed leadership. The next day, Thursday, 13 June, will see the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and initial jobless claims numbers. At the end of the week, on Friday, 14 June, the Fed's Monetary Policy Report will be available for review.

USD/JPY: Finance Minister Responds to Questions

A week ago, we wrote that Japanese financial authorities had not confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. Bloomberg estimated that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, setting a new monthly record for such financial operations. We questioned the long-term or even medium-term effectiveness of this expenditure.

It seems that Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, read our review, as he hastened to provide answers to the questions posed. In his statement, he first confirmed that (quote): "the decline in Japan's foreign reserves at the end of May partially reflects currency interventions." This suggests that yen purchases indeed took place. Additionally, the minister noted, "the effectiveness of such interventions should be considered," indicating his doubts about their feasibility.

Suzuki refrained from commenting on the size of the intervention funds but mentioned that while there is no limit on funds for currency interventions, their use would be limited.

As previously mentioned, besides interventions (and the fear of them), another way to support the national currency is through tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Early last week, yen received support from rumours that the BoJ is considering reducing the volume of its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Such a decision could decrease demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs), increase their yields (which inversely correlates with prices), and positively impact the yen's exchange rate. The Bank of Japan is expected to discuss reducing bond purchases at its meeting next Friday, 14 June.

On Tuesday, 4 June, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino confirmed concerns that a weak yen could negatively impact the economy and cause inflation to rise. According to him, a low national currency rate increases the cost of imported goods and reduces consumption, as people delay purchases due to high prices. However, Ryozo Himino stated that the Bank of Japan would prefer inflation driven by wage growth, as this would lead to increased household spending and consumption.

The yen received another blow from the dollar after the publication of US labour market data on 7 June. The USD/JPY pair surged as wage growth in the US sharply contrasted with the 25th consecutive month of declining wages in Japan in April.

As the saying goes, hope dies last. Investors remain hopeful that the regulator will actively combat the yen's depreciation, creating long-term factors for USD/JPY to decline. For now, it ended the week at 156.74.

The median forecast of analysts for the near term is as follows: 75% voted for the pair's decline and yen strengthening ahead of the BoJ meeting, while the remaining 25% took a neutral stance. None favoured the pair's upward movement. Technical analysis, however, presents a different picture: 100% of trend indicators on D1 are green. Among oscillators, 35% are green, 55% neutral-grey, and only 10% red. The nearest support level is around 156.00-156.25, followed by zones and levels at 155.45, 154.50-154.70, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, and 147.30-147.60, with 146.50 being the furthest. The closest resistance is in the zone of 157.05-157.15, then 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.

Noteworthy events in the coming week include Monday, 10 June, when Japan's Q1 2024 GDP data will be released, and, of course, Friday, 14 June, when the Bank of Japan's Governing Council will make decisions on future monetary policy. However, like the Fed, the yen interest rate is likely to remain unchanged.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Drives and Will Drive Bitcoin Upwards


The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January caused an explosive price increase for the leading cryptocurrency. On 12 March, inflows into these funds reached $1 billion, and by 13 March, BTC/USD set a new all-time high, rising to $73,743. Then came a lull, followed by a post-halving correction, and finally, growth resumed in May. Early last week, net inflows into BTC-ETFs amounted to $887 million, the second largest in these funds' history. As a result, BTC/USD broke the $70,000 level and recorded a local high at $71,922.

Young whales (holding over 1,000 BTC) demonstrated noticeable accumulation, adding $1 billion daily to their wallets. CryptoQuant's head, Ki Young Ju, notes that their current behaviour resembles 2020. At that time, consolidation around $10,000 lasted about six months, after which the price increased 2.5 times in three months. Key representatives of these young whales include major institutional investors from the US, who accounted for a third of all capital inflows into spot BTC-ETFs in Q1 (about $4 billion) from companies with over $100 million in assets under management.

Besides BTC-ETFs, the recent growth was significantly influenced by April's halving. The Hash Ribbons indicator is giving an "optimal signal" to buy digital gold in the coming weeks, indicating a resumption of the asset's rally, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. The metric shows miner capitulation that began two weeks ago. This period occurs when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate falls below the 60-day rate.

According to Edwards, miner capitulation happens roughly once a year, typically due to operational halts, bankruptcies, takeovers, or, as in this case, halving. The halving of the block reward makes equipment unprofitable, leading to its shutdown and hash rate decline. The last miner capitulation was in September 2023, when bitcoin traded around $25,000.

In the event of a new growth impulse, Edwards predicts the next medium-term target will be $100,000. However, he warns that summer traditionally sees a lull in financial markets, so the upward impulse might be delayed.

Wall Street legend and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt highlights the "remarkable symmetry" of market cycles, with halving halving the weeks between the bottom and the peak. If Brandt's model is correct, BTC should reach a peak between $130,000-160,000 by September next year.

Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya offers a much more optimistic forecast. Analysing bitcoin's post-halving dynamics, he notes the cryptocurrency achieved its greatest growth 12-18 months after the event. Palihapitiya predicts that if the growth trajectory after the third halving is repeated, bitcoin's price could reach $500,000 by October 2025. Using the average figures of the last two cycles, the target is $1.14 million.

For the coming weeks, analyst Rekt Capital believes digital gold will need to confidently overcome the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone to enter a "parabolic growth phase." Popular cryptocurrency expert Ali Martinez forecasts BTC will likely test the $79,600 price range. AI PricePredictions suggests that bitcoin could not only firmly establish above the critical $70,000 mark but also continue growing, reaching $75,245 by the end of June. This prediction is based on technical analysis indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Two catalysts could drive the upcoming growth of the crypto market: the launch of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum after SEC approval of S-1 applications, and the US presidential elections. According to Bloomberg exchange analyst James Seyffart, the SEC might approve the applications by mid-June, although it could take "weeks or months." JPMorgan experts believe the SEC's decision on ETH-ETFs was politically motivated ahead of the US presidential elections. These elections themselves are the second catalyst for a bull rally.

A recent Harris Poll survey, sponsored by BTC-ETF issuer Grayscale, found that geopolitical tensions and inflation are prompting more American voters to consider bitcoin. The survey, which included over 1,700 potential US voters, revealed that 77% believe presidential candidates should at least have some understanding of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 47% plan to include cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolios, up from 40% last year. Notably, 9% of elderly voters reported increased interest in bitcoin and other crypto assets following BTC-ETF approval. According to NYDIG, the total cryptocurrency community in the US currently numbers over 46 million citizens, or 22% of the adult population.

Evaluating this situation, Wences Casares, Argentine entrepreneur and CEO of venture company Xapo, believes the US could be one of the first to adopt a dual currency system. In this case, the dollar would be used for transactions with everyday goods and services, while cryptocurrency would be a store of value.

At the time of writing, the evening of Friday, 7 June, BTC/USD trades at $69,220. The total crypto market capitalisation stands at $2.54 trillion ($2.53 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 73 to 77 points over the week, moving from the Greed zone to the Extreme Greed zone.

In conclusion, the forecast for the next potential candidate for a spot ETF launch in the US after bitcoin and Ethereum. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes it will be Solana, which showed impressive results over the past year. At the end of 2023, SOL was around $21 but exceeded $200 by March 2024, showing nearly tenfold growth. Currently, SOL is around $172 and ranks fifth in market capitalisation. Given Solana's current position, Novogratz is confident this altcoin has a good chance of being included in the pool of spot ETFs. Recently, BKCM investment company CEO Brian Kelly expressed a similar view.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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