Poll

What would you buy

Glencore
2 (25%)
Harmony
1 (12.5%)
Oceana
2 (25%)
ArcelorMittal
1 (12.5%)
African Bank
2 (25%)

Total Members Voted: 8

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Author Topic: My look at shares  (Read 28628 times)

jaDEB

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My look at shares
« on: February 17, 2014, 12:17:38 pm »
If you had to buy R100,000 shares today to use profit in 3 months for whatever. Which one.
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jaDEB

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jaDEB

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2014, 12:21:16 pm »
For Orca....

Major shareholders

Top shareholders
 
Top shareholders/managers of ABIL shares as at 31 December 2013
 
                                                                        Holding               %

1 Coronation Asset Management                        248 236 878       16,54
2 Government Employees Pension Fund (PIC)     179 213 860        11,94
3 STANLIB Asset Management                           119 230 012         7,94
4 Genesis Investment Management                    79 228 490          5,28
5 Eyomhlaba Investment Holdings                      49 135 160          3,27
 
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jaDEB

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Moneypenny

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2014, 12:40:29 pm »
Next 3 months, none of those for me.

Indifferent on OCE, haven't looked at that one yet.
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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2014, 01:49:21 pm »
Coronation.  :frustrated: How dare you guys buy ABL when it has been in a down trend for a year with no indication of a reversal. Now there goes a good chunk of your profits and your clients money.
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jaDEB

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2014, 02:13:52 pm »
Thus Orca as you are 1 of the big CML shareholders, please vote ABIL ...  :TU:  :laugh:  :LHST:
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jaDEB

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Neil

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2014, 03:32:31 pm »
Hi Guys, Im new and I just had to register to comment on this post.

Firstly im an investor (value investor) not a trader, and JaDEB I must advise you not to make equity buy/sell decisions on "graphs", "oscillators". Now dont hate me here, but I think all this oscillators and stuff is bunch of rubbish.

I think one should do a fundamental analysis on a company before making a buy/sell decision. For instance what has the 5 year and 10 year EPS growth rate of the company? do a discounted cash flow analysis on the company. Is it underpriced compared to its peers? Is the current ratio of the company greater than 1.5? what is the dept to asset ratio? what is the net asset value per share of the company with relation to the market price? what do the future prospects of the company look like? what is the companies plan for the future and to generate value for shareholders? what is the return on equity and assets?

Theres alot to look at and rightly so, because your investment capital is finite asset. you have to deploy it as efficiently as possible to get the best ROI you can get. Secondly you have to take a long term view on buying and selling shares, value and long term wealth is created on the long term, your investment horizon should be 5 years or more. Theres no get rich scheme, rome was not built in a day.  My 2 cents use it, dont use it.

With regards to your question:

The only one that peeks my interest is OCE, its financials look good, quality company, bit over priced at ~18PE. didnt do a DCF on it, but it is worthy of the effort. Id go for that one but dont put all your capital into just one company, diversify. Diversification reduces overall portfolio risk

on a side note a saw some ppl have CML, I also had CML in my portfolio, but I sold them in December (for a almost a 50% profit),  overvalued in my view, and still is at ~20PE
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Disclaimer:The views/opinions expressed in this post are that of the writer and are not to be interpreted as advice, nor as a indication to buy/sell any investment or equity. The writer will not be held liable for any profit or loss resulting from reading of this post by the reader in any form.

jaDEB

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2014, 04:03:16 pm »
JaDEB I must advise you not to make equity buy/sell decisions on "graphs", "oscillators". Now dont hate me here, but I think all this oscillators and stuff is bunch of rubbish.

Agree, I use it for info only - Orca will now shout at me

what is the companies plan for the future and to generate value for shareholders? what is the return on equity and assets?

Theres alot to look at and rightly so,

Yes agree

Secondly you have to take a long term view on buying and selling shares,  - Agree - but it depends on shares. As Orca says - Commodities is not long term. look at BIL

Theres no get rich scheme, rome was not built in a day.  - Agree, but then just look @

Orca and his CML.
Monneypenny and Atlatsa Resources Corporation (ATL)
SGL - jaDEB's missed boat



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jaDEB

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jaDEB

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2014, 04:05:08 pm »
Quote from: qriffin on February 17, 2014, 04:00:32 pm
I feel so sorry for you Neil, wait till Orca sees your post lol

LOL, ok Orca you next ......
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jaDEB

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Moneypenny

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2014, 05:14:31 pm »
Quote from: jaDEB on February 17, 2014, 04:03:16 pm
Monneypenny and Atlatsa Resources Corporation (ATL)

No, no jaDEB, that one is not mentioned in polite company. :D

I get what Neil is saying (welcome Neil  :) ) and I agree on his system for 90% of a portfolio.

But damn, I do also need those 10% wildcards to keep things interesting, ATL being the latest one.  Previous ones that were good to me, making no sense at the time of purchasing were RLO (2004), MRF (2007 & 2011) Brait (2009), ARQ & UUU (2010), MUR, IPSA & AET think it was 2006 or there a bouts.
 
But as I've said, wildcards - not putting somebody’s pension fund in there.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2014, 05:23:25 pm by Moneypenny »
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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2014, 05:36:12 pm »
I"LL BE BUCK. WAIT.
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jaDEB

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2014, 05:39:42 pm »
OOhh, and do not get Orca started, on other "spoeg op grond" website he was heavily invested in CML and everybody told him not to.
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jaDEB

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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2014, 05:55:46 pm »
Quote from: jaDEB on February 17, 2014, 05:39:42 pm
OOhh, and do not get Orca started, on other "spoeg op grond" website he was heavily invested in CML and everybody told him not to.

Surprised that you remembered that from years ago when CML was around 2700. Wonder who won that argument?
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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2014, 06:25:57 pm »
I agree 100% with Neil. Doing what he mentioned is paramount before buying. But when to Buy or Sell becomes a problem. Many stocks are cyclical and can carry on down for many months for no apparent reason even though the markets are in a bull run. This is where I would like to sell. Or perhaps wait for a reversal signal to buy. This is when charts come to play.

Look at ABL. In a long term down trend. Would you buy it now? Thought not but when would you buy? A good stock overall but not the flavour of the day as yet. Should a technical buy signal develop, traders will climb in attracting investors back and up she will go.

STXIND. My charts showed that Industrial stocks had climbed up too high above the 200ma and was due for a correction. I stated this on this forum. What happened? This sector dropped more than most sectors to a more sustainable level above that ma.




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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2014, 06:33:40 pm »
I have OMN shares and was getting worried about it's down trend. A very good stock with great fundamentals and all. No reason for the drop except Mine strikes. So before selling it I found a Morning Star reversal that would have been a good entry to buy for investors. This I also posted on this forum the day it happened.
Look at her now. That sell I mentioned at 22500 was only for traders as it is resistance and she reached it today.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2014, 06:37:05 pm by Orca »
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Orca

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Re: My look at shares
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2014, 06:50:54 pm »
Now look at my CML technicals. Good profits locked in until September and with the markets surging and ignoring lack luster economic news, she might just hold on longer.
If she tanks, she will tank big time and quickly. This I need to keep an eye on as I don't like the PE ratio. To do this, I use the BB's. As I posted on the "Stock trading and investment buying strategies" thread.
She always bounces off the bottom BB. If she goes lower on high volumes, I will sell.
Neil sold at 50% profit!!! My broker sold at 4820 because she was fully valued. I am holding on and have made from 2400 to 8540. Albeit selling and re buying.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2014, 07:14:03 pm by Orca »
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