The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: jaDEB on February 17, 2014, 12:17:38 pm
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If you had to buy R100,000 shares today to use profit in 3 months for whatever. Which one.
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For Orca....
Major shareholders
Top shareholders
Top shareholders/managers of ABIL shares as at 31 December 2013
Holding %
1 Coronation Asset Management 248 236 878 16,54
2 Government Employees Pension Fund (PIC) 179 213 860 11,94
3 STANLIB Asset Management 119 230 012 7,94
4 Genesis Investment Management 79 228 490 5,28
5 Eyomhlaba Investment Holdings 49 135 160 3,27
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Next 3 months, none of those for me.
Indifferent on OCE, haven't looked at that one yet.
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Coronation. :frustrated: How dare you guys buy ABL when it has been in a down trend for a year with no indication of a reversal. Now there goes a good chunk of your profits and your clients money.
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Thus Orca as you are 1 of the big CML shareholders, please vote ABIL ... :TU: :laugh: :LHST:
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Hi Guys, Im new and I just had to register to comment on this post.
Firstly im an investor (value investor) not a trader, and JaDEB I must advise you not to make equity buy/sell decisions on "graphs", "oscillators". Now dont hate me here, but I think all this oscillators and stuff is bunch of rubbish.
I think one should do a fundamental analysis on a company before making a buy/sell decision. For instance what has the 5 year and 10 year EPS growth rate of the company? do a discounted cash flow analysis on the company. Is it underpriced compared to its peers? Is the current ratio of the company greater than 1.5? what is the dept to asset ratio? what is the net asset value per share of the company with relation to the market price? what do the future prospects of the company look like? what is the companies plan for the future and to generate value for shareholders? what is the return on equity and assets?
Theres alot to look at and rightly so, because your investment capital is finite asset. you have to deploy it as efficiently as possible to get the best ROI you can get. Secondly you have to take a long term view on buying and selling shares, value and long term wealth is created on the long term, your investment horizon should be 5 years or more. Theres no get rich scheme, rome was not built in a day. My 2 cents use it, dont use it.
With regards to your question:
The only one that peeks my interest is OCE, its financials look good, quality company, bit over priced at ~18PE. didnt do a DCF on it, but it is worthy of the effort. Id go for that one but dont put all your capital into just one company, diversify. Diversification reduces overall portfolio risk
on a side note a saw some ppl have CML, I also had CML in my portfolio, but I sold them in December (for a almost a 50% profit), overvalued in my view, and still is at ~20PE
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JaDEB I must advise you not to make equity buy/sell decisions on "graphs", "oscillators". Now dont hate me here, but I think all this oscillators and stuff is bunch of rubbish.
Agree, I use it for info only - Orca will now shout at me
what is the companies plan for the future and to generate value for shareholders? what is the return on equity and assets?
Theres alot to look at and rightly so,
Yes agree
Secondly you have to take a long term view on buying and selling shares, - Agree - but it depends on shares. As Orca says - Commodities is not long term. look at BIL
Theres no get rich scheme, rome was not built in a day. - Agree, but then just look @
Orca and his CML.
Monneypenny and Atlatsa Resources Corporation (ATL)
SGL - jaDEB's missed boat
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I feel so sorry for you Neil, wait till Orca sees your post lol
LOL, ok Orca you next ......
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Monneypenny and Atlatsa Resources Corporation (ATL)
No, no jaDEB, that one is not mentioned in polite company. :D
I get what Neil is saying (welcome Neil :) ) and I agree on his system for 90% of a portfolio.
But damn, I do also need those 10% wildcards to keep things interesting, ATL being the latest one. Previous ones that were good to me, making no sense at the time of purchasing were RLO (2004), MRF (2007 & 2011) Brait (2009), ARQ & UUU (2010), MUR, IPSA & AET think it was 2006 or there a bouts.
But as I've said, wildcards - not putting somebody’s pension fund in there.
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I"LL BE BUCK. WAIT.
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OOhh, and do not get Orca started, on other "spoeg op grond" website he was heavily invested in CML and everybody told him not to.
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OOhh, and do not get Orca started, on other "spoeg op grond" website he was heavily invested in CML and everybody told him not to.
Surprised that you remembered that from years ago when CML was around 2700. Wonder who won that argument?
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I agree 100% with Neil. Doing what he mentioned is paramount before buying. But when to Buy or Sell becomes a problem. Many stocks are cyclical and can carry on down for many months for no apparent reason even though the markets are in a bull run. This is where I would like to sell. Or perhaps wait for a reversal signal to buy. This is when charts come to play.
Look at ABL. In a long term down trend. Would you buy it now? Thought not but when would you buy? A good stock overall but not the flavour of the day as yet. Should a technical buy signal develop, traders will climb in attracting investors back and up she will go.
STXIND. My charts showed that Industrial stocks had climbed up too high above the 200ma and was due for a correction. I stated this on this forum. What happened? This sector dropped more than most sectors to a more sustainable level above that ma.
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I have OMN shares and was getting worried about it's down trend. A very good stock with great fundamentals and all. No reason for the drop except Mine strikes. So before selling it I found a Morning Star reversal that would have been a good entry to buy for investors. This I also posted on this forum the day it happened.
Look at her now. That sell I mentioned at 22500 was only for traders as it is resistance and she reached it today.
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Now look at my CML technicals. Good profits locked in until September and with the markets surging and ignoring lack luster economic news, she might just hold on longer.
If she tanks, she will tank big time and quickly. This I need to keep an eye on as I don't like the PE ratio. To do this, I use the BB's. As I posted on the "Stock trading and investment buying strategies" thread.
She always bounces off the bottom BB. If she goes lower on high volumes, I will sell.
Neil sold at 50% profit!!! My broker sold at 4820 because she was fully valued. I am holding on and have made from 2400 to 8540. Albeit selling and re buying.
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Sorry to hijack your thread jaDEB. I'm done venting now.
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how much brokerage and tax did you pay buying and selling CML ORCA? you could have made alot more by just holding and selling later. just saying. not trying to be confrontational. ;)
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how much brokerage and tax did you pay buying and selling CML ORCA? you could have made alot more by just holding and selling later. just saying. not trying to be confrontational. ;)
No prob Neil. :TU: Keeps me busy.
Had I stayed in CML without selling and re buying since 2009, I would have made 1400% but I ended up with 380%.
I am now holding for the 3 year tax thingy.
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Had I stayed in CML without selling and re buying since 2009, I would have made 1400% but I ended up with 380%.
Damn, I am going outside and cry uncontrollably ... 1400 % :frustrated: :frustrated: :frustrated: :'( , nevermind moving to Portugal, you could have bought it.
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Had I stayed in CML without selling and re buying since 2009, I would have made 1400% but I ended up with 380%.
Damn, I am going outside and cry uncontrollably ... 1400 % :frustrated: :frustrated: :frustrated: :'( , nevermind moving to Portugal, you could have bought it.
Sorry. That is an old figure. It is 1860% without divies re invested. Now go back outside and sob some more.
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Thanks for all the votes.
Gln / Oce seams to be the better one's
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I am surprised that nobody on this forum has ever mentioned Powerstocks. These okes put their own money in their analysis first and then open it to the public. No it's not like any of the other share related websites that I have ever seen. These okes started their analysis about 5 years ago and developed share trading strategies based on principles that is used globally. They looked at the okes that made the big bucks and applied those theories to the JSE. They have a lot of strategies and they keep improving on them. Read their website www.powerstocks.co.za.
This is the truth and I have cut it from their website:
PowerStocks Research is the first (and as at 17/01/2013 the only) JSE Technical Analysis (TA) research firm that uses JSE market breadth, available to the private investing public. We started out as a private investing club that conducted unique quantitative research for their own JSE investment purposes. The need for this was borne out of a lack of local public research on the topic of Strategy Indexing (mechanical stock picking methods), and quantitative breadth-based Market Timing Strategies specific to the JSE.
Guess what, the okes were so good, that Sharenet "bought" them however, they still do their own thing. Guess what? These fund managers, even they subscribe to Powerstocks!!! Why pay a fund manager if you can do it yourself?
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Have you seen the price of the software? Then you also need to attend a course to learn how to use it. And pay more for that as well.
The reason why we don't buy it is because it is so complicated and we might not understand how to use it even after the course.
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No Orca, you got it all wrong. Attend one of their free seminars if you can. Send them a mail and tell them you are interested and when are they having their next show and tell. As far as I know you don't pay for the software. You pay the private individual membership fee. You don't even have to go for the full membership upfront.
Complicated software, I promise you that it is not complicated.
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I dont buy it, I written software myself for the NASDAQ that pulls all the stocks and information about the stocks from the net and I can write all sorts of BS algorithms that can tell you to buy/sell this or that. Looks like real BS to me, no offence. Further if the software was so good then why are they selling it, if the software was genuine then they would keep it to themselves and under lock and key.
Not for me thank you very much, besides if I wanted software like that Id write it myself.
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Neil firstly, you subscribe to their service and get the software. You don't pay for the service and then they kick you out the door.
Secondly, a heng of a lot of okes subscribe to them. What if those okes have an edge or angle that you don't have and it could have made a serious difference on your bottom line?
Thirdly, how can you say something is rubbish if you have not even tried a 1 month subscription. What do you have to lose? What if the service they supply is pretty good? I say, don't byte it till you have tried it. I will put my head on a block that they can bring value to the table. Do you really think that okes would put their own money on something that is a fly-by-night product?
Let's put it this way. Say you learn just one thing from them or their product and that leads to an increase of 10% in your profits or helps you from not losing money, would that not have made it a pretty good "investment"?
I say again. Contact them and attend one of their show and tell seminars.
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No. I don't trade shares anymore. I can't wait 3 years to make a profit! I trade futures.
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Futures are riskier than trading options.
With options you have so many options (is that a pun ?)
Eg..
Long Straddle
Bull-Call-Spread
Bull-Put-Spread
Bear-Put-Spread
Bear-Call-Spread
Short Straddle
Butterfly
Strangle
Short-Butterfly
Short-Strangle
8)
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Lol I used all those "Options" last night :LHST:
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Top40 futures on the Safex exchange.