Author Topic: Maybe hold off on the buying?  (Read 3964 times)

Fawkes85

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Maybe hold off on the buying?
« on: September 02, 2015, 07:25:54 am »
It's difficult to read these numbers and to not be bearish on the markets for the next month or so:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34124413

Now there are many articles out there that have proven that just because the markets are going down that does not mean you should sell. If you bought to hold then keep on holding. In the short term prices may be going down but in the long term they always go up and above compared to where they were before.

Nevertheless, reading those numbers suggests to me that I should hold off on adding to my portfolio. Of course this would be a good time to buy as prices will be cheap right now but that article would suggest that prices still have some falling to do. Now I am not saying I am trying to time the market as I know that is next to impossible to do but I do think, right now, it is safe to say that we should hold off on buying more shares for awhile as they will probably go down more. What do you guys think?

jaDEB

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Re: Maybe hold off on the buying?
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2015, 05:19:19 pm »
I think there is some good buying opportunities now, where the bottom is no 1 knows. I think the iron ore and steel companies  that will survive can make u lots of money in future. but some1 said he thinks it will take 2 years for it to recover.
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Patrick

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Re: Maybe hold off on the buying?
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2015, 05:24:26 pm »
Being particularly useless at timing the markets I just buy when the money hits my account. Fortunately research seems to favour that over waiting or dollar cost averaging, with you coming ahead in about two third of the cases by buying asap if memory serves me right.

rjthomas

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Re: Maybe hold off on the buying?
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2015, 07:32:32 am »
Being particularly useless at timing the markets I just buy when the money hits my account. Fortunately research seems to favour that over waiting or dollar cost averaging, with you coming ahead in about two third of the cases by buying asap if memory serves me right.

Hi Patrick does that mean you usually follow Dollar-Cost Averaging method of buying shares?
South African working in China since 2012

Patrick

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Re: Maybe hold off on the buying?
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2015, 09:38:56 am »
Being particularly useless at timing the markets I just buy when the money hits my account. Fortunately research seems to favour that over waiting or dollar cost averaging, with you coming ahead in about two third of the cases by buying asap if memory serves me right.

Hi Patrick does that mean you usually follow Dollar-Cost Averaging method of buying shares?

Only by the fact that I have a salary, so money comes in monthly and I buy monthly. When I have lump sums I don't, like when I sold my house and got the payout I immediately invested everything. Sadly this was around May and the markets were at an all time high!

gcr

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Re: Maybe hold off on the buying?
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2015, 10:40:59 am »
The last 2 and a 1/2 weeks have presented a real opportunity to top up ones portfolio holdings and buy other shares. There is always the debate around timing the market fall, and falling knives versus time in the market. Traders try to time the market and given the number of failed traders they are poor at timing the market, so you have to decide are you a trader or are you an investor. If you are an investor then you are in the market for pretty much a life time, your approach needs to be sensible and if the counter you are in fails to perform over an extended period then dumped the counter and use the loss to offset CGT with SARS. One can also have a percentage of your total funds in speculative shares some advocate 10% but my personal limit is no more than 5%. Typical example I hold 1.5 bar Nutrition shares as speculative shares representing 1% of my portfolio bought at 1 cent and they have dropped to 2 cents today from 3 cents - should I sell and take my profit of some R 14,500 - absolutely not, also I would not be able to dump the whole lot in one sale so my cost of selling in dribs and drabs will erode my profits considerably. I have an instruction in the market to sell at a price considerably north of its current price which when it hit this number will net about 10 times my current profit. The essence of this post is sit it out and hold on to your value shares and buy more in the dips as generally the better shares reclaim their previous high quicker than the rats and mice. On the debate around property and resources a week before the drop in resources counter that I held I sold out of everything, and, I don't hold nor have I held for decades property funds
So this works for me but will not work for everyone
Just as an aside Coronation have written to all holders of their Top 20 fund to have the rules amended whereby they can invest in a wider range of shares and not restrict their choices to the top 50 companies on the JSE - should improve the value of the fund immeasurably   
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein