The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Moonraker on April 09, 2013, 04:09:03 pm
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What are your favourite stocks for the long term ?
I believe in a weakening Rand and hence hold stocks with either pure rand hedge qualities, or those that derive most of their income off-shore.
Also prefer companies that have a presence in Africa outside ZA.
BTI
SAB
SHP
BVT
APN
to name some that I hold.
Given the current and (alas) future prospects globally, I think it is important to additionally select defensive stocks, which the abovementioned are.
They may or may not be overpriced, but this is a thread for longer term investments.
Yield also plays a roll, and for that I like CML and listed property.
I also like REM and AVI which don't quite meet my aforementioned criteria.
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We have a lot in common:
BTI
CML
SAB
SHP
WHL
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Long term:
Afrocentric (have great management and a gem of an asset = medscheme)
Redefine (safe bet after the Fountainhead deal went their way, great value here now and think it is reflected in the jump today I'd say)
Brait SE (everyone know this one, safe bet as well)
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Long term:
Afrocentric (have great management and a gem of an asset = medscheme)
Redefine (safe bet after the Fountainhead deal went their way, great value here now and think it is reflected in the jump today I'd say)
Brait SE (everyone know this one, safe bet as well)
You know that I like GRT, so am a bit sad that they didn't prevail. Would have liked the opportunity to vote. :-\
No doubt RDF is a fine LT as well.
Here a chart comparison over 1 year - nearly as good as Immobilier's RES ;)
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Bought some Redefine before the jump, looking to add to another property stock but not sure which one at this stage..
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Any thoughts on Capitec?
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Good move, confirms what I am looking for in stocks as per my post HERE. (http://www.shareforum.co.za/shares/long-term-investments/msg95/#msg95)
SABMiller to lure drinkers with cheap beer (http://www.fin24.com/Companies/Industrial/SABMiller-to-lure-drinkers-with-cheap-beer-20130410)
Home to some of the world's fastest growing economies, Africa's thirst for beer is surging: analysts estimate beer volumes rose around 7% last year. Excluding the mature South African market, growth reached more than 10%.
This growth is spurring increased competition. SABMiller wants to gain an edge over rivals like Diageo and Heineken by luring consumers who drink cheap locally made home brew that comprises 75% of alcohol consumed in the region, according to company estimates.
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Some Fed members are getting jittery, calling for scaling back bond purchases.
Treasuries Head for Weekly Loss as Fed May Scale Back (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/treasuries-head-for-weekly-loss-as-fed-may-scale-back.html)
The Fed should begin to trim its purchases, barring a slump in the economy, Plosser said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Susan Li in Hong Kong.
Plosser is Philadelphia Federal Reserve President.
When QE gets throttled, stocks could plummet ... let's just pray it won't be the biggest Enchilada ever. ;)
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If you ain't a trader watch out.
Stock Market Crash Warning 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TleQotjPYtc
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Thanks for posting.
Slowly but surely contemplating a bit of a hedge here.
Was fine with the markets but all of a sudden I'm "feeling" a lot of negative sentiment out there.
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If it tanks I'm going to drink a lot, borrow some money and just double up :P
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Smoking Out Safe 4% Dividend Yields (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350091-smoking-out-safe-4-dividend-yields?source=nasdaq)
With BTI, litigation is more or less factored in and expected. The plain packaging laws in Australia with ugly pics. of the consequences of smoking will have little affect on sales. Yep, nice stock I first got into in 2008. Great dividends over the years.
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MTA not doing well lately but charts show that it should bounce back up again as of now if markets allow. If not, then I will sell and buy more CML and some OML on dips.
CML made a dip today but not enough. Normally if it dips just before close, it corrects back up the next day. This time it had a series of sales just at close that carried on after close???. Not sure how that works but will see tomorrow.
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I have some money coming in a couple of months after a property sale. I'm busy debating whether to go with an etf like the satrix indi or picking some shares.
If I go shares my thoughts are as follows:
CML - It's done well, future prospects look good and I really don't see it underperforming the market in the next 3 years.
SAB - Solid company, expanding, a fair amount of income from offshore sources.
Aspen - Wish I had the money about a month ago as I was planning on aspen then. Recently bought licenses to nestle SA infant formula. I imagine it will benefit from the new healthcare plan in SA. The only concern I have here is the p/e is too high right now.
Invicta - There's another thread on it here with all the reasons. I like the look of it for a long term share.
WHL - I like their business model of smaller stores in more areas. Great history too. I do a lot of travelling in southern africa, and I can see them expanding in similar ways to how shoprite has done over the last few years.
Any comments?
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I like the selection. All except WHL have been in my long term portfolio for quite some time now.
CML - yes, because the yield is still good, and in a low interest environment with buckets-full of uncertainty, I reckon it is fine to buy and hold.
APN - yes, because pharmaceuticals are defensive and management is excellent. Buy and hold. NB: Good Rand hedge.
SAB - yes, can't go wrong. Latest trading update was pretty good. Very good geographical spread. Defensive, like BTI. (Vice is Nice). NB: Good Rand hedge.
Invicta - yes, diversifying out of ZA which is de-industrialising. Reasonable PE, good Korean prospects. Also buy and hold
WHL - Either that or SHP whoever has the biggest Africa footprint (outside ZA).
Regards.
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Good mix though would add MDC and EOH :)
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Metair. You have been my worst performer over 12 months. Doing less than 40%????
If you don't wake up now, I will sell you and add to your room mate CML that has done 111%. Even your other roomy PNC is beating you by 20%.
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Metair. You have been my worst performer over 12 months. Doing less than 40%????
If you don't wake up now, I will sell you and add to your room mate CML that has done 111%. Even your other roomy PNC is beating you by 20%.
It worked. She woke up at long last.
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MTA read this post and is shooting the lights out now. Up 3.6% today. I must reprimand my stocks more often.
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Could you reprimand vodacom for me while you're at it. It's my only stock still in the red... >:(
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Could you reprimand vodacom for me while you're at it. It's my only stock still in the red... >:(
Sorry. Don't have it in my portfolio so cannot use my psychicological stuff on it. Try burning sage and doing a rain dance around your pc.
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Ellies keeps tempting me. If it goes below R9 again I'll buy.
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Unfortunately moving house on Monday, so no time for the markets.
Things are certainly happening after the Bernanke speech. My long term portfolio is suffering, mainly due to the very sharp downwards movement of listed property. OK, they were star performers over many years, and I will continue holding. The correction is of course mainly due to the sharp increase in our bond yields across all maturities, and we all know the close correlation between bond yields and listed property yields.
The increase in yields should be telling us to watch out for a repo rate increase before the end of the year, barring political pressure to which I hope G. Marcus will not bow - otherwise we will really be in trouble exchange rate wise.
My Rand hedge stocks, BTI and SAB are also performing miserably considering the ROE of now over 15.10 to the pound sterling. They have both taken a beating in London each and every day for the past couple of days.
My portfolio is more or less back to where it was in mid March. :frustrated:
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ZAR hitting my PNC big today. MTA got :TU: by Garth Mackenzie on Summit TV. CML volatile before LDT.
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I have also taken a big knock these past few weeks, mainly in Property (GRT) and Insurance (MMI) :'( But I shouldn't complain too much as they have done pretty well over the past few years that I have held them, and I don't plan on selling anyway. Contemplating adding more at these levels.
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Sell emerging markets in May, and maybe June and July too (http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Sell_emerging_markets_in_May_and_maybe_June_and_July_too/074474b50e6c22971c47cedb1dc5432d)
OVERSHOOT?
Not everyone agrees, of course.
"It should be good news for equity investors that the Fed is talking of tapering," says Bill Maldonado, Asia-Pacific CIO at HSBC Global Asset Management. "Everyone is worried about bond yields rising but it also means we have an economic recovery underway."
But in 'deficit' economies such as South Africa, Turkey and India, which have big external funding needs and have been at the forefront of the May selloff, the rout could extend further.
South Africa's rand is at four-year lows while bond yields have jumped a whole percentage point in May.
"South Africa is probably close to a point where you could look at it," said Bareau, who thinks the wider selloff overdone. "There is a sense of a falling knife and you don't want to catch it until it is actually on the floor."
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Fund managers discuss some of their favoured stocks (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-economic-trends/top-fund-managers-discuss-their-favoured-stocks)
Steinhoff
EOH and Pinnacle
Clover
Brait
Mondi
Impala Platinum
8)
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Hello Mr Bond, welcome back from your mission .... :TU:
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Got a list of the best performing funds over 6 months. Two of my 3 funds are listed here. CML and PNC. I will have to do some research on these to find the best one to replace my MTA.
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Capital & Counties it will be. Good long term performance and the least volatile. Just what I have been looking for. Needs a good dip though as the exchange rate has given it a boost.
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Capital & Counties it will be. Good long term performance and the least volatile. Just what I have been looking for. Needs a good dip though as the exchange rate has given it a boost.
Never heard of them. Nice graph and P/E. Which of your 3 will you be selling to buy that?
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CCO is a SA Co. that owns prime property in London so a good ZAR hedge. I also never heard of them until that table of biggest gainers was posted. I will sell MTA. My kids are skyping from the UK so must go.
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That done. I will post a comparison chart with CCO and CML tomorrow and you will see the similarities. CML, the best performing stock vs CCO, the second best.
CCO has a very high PE ratio but that is normal due to the high asset value of the properties they own.
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CCO has a very high PE ratio but that is normal due to the high asset value of the properties they own.
Ah I checked it on FT.com and saw 9.7 and got quite excited. Now I checked on sharenet and see 250! Which one is it?
Edit: Bloomberg has an estimate of 194???
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CCO has a very high PE ratio but that is normal due to the high asset value of the properties they own.
Ah I checked it on FT.com and saw 9.7 and got quite excited. Now I checked on sharenet and see 250! Which one is it?
Edit: Bloomberg has an estimate of 194???
On LSE it's 134 (Dec 2012). Net asset value only 196p and a whopper of a PEG ratio. I would excersise some caution. Price to book value also pretty high.
Here (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices/stocks/summary/fundamentals.html?fourWayKey=GB00B62G9D36GBGBXSTMM)
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Thanks guys. Will skip it then. I thought that the higher the NAV of property stocks, the higher the PE. CCO has some prime property in London.
Is the diffs in the PE not due to the ZAR value?
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Omnia. Another great stock. Look at it's chart. Seems as if nothing bothers her and just keeps going up. PE +-13.
I have compared it to STXINDI and included my CML as she just looks too high and should be lower and worries me. Sell and buy OMN and OCE? What to do!!!
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Omnia. Another great stock. Look at it's chart. Seems as if nothing bothers her and just keeps going up. PE +-13.
I have compared it to STXINDI and included my CML as she just looks too high and should be lower and worries me. Sell and buy OMN and OCE? What to do!!!
Hedge your bets and sell a portion of your CML shares and buy into OMN - serves no purpose dumping one share totally and moving elsewhere. When you get to a point where IOMN are giving you better returns then sell out of CML if you really want to
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FFS Orca, if the market gets wind that you selling CML it will fall thru the floor. :wall: :frustrated:
Serious note, I like the fishy one, OCE, got 10% of portfolio of it. the other 90% is CML + my other portfolio (me,brother Darrel and other brother Darrel) is 100% CML. Other portfolio for Phantom is 100% OCE.
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gcr has a good idea there and I hope jaDEB takes note.
CML has always averaged 65% pa and this shot up to 130% over the past year. If she carries on doing well, it will most certainly not be 130%. Back to 65% I think. So why not decrease my risk and sell half and buy OMN and or OCE?
jaDEB, OCE is great but I prefer OMN as she is well fertilized and growing steadily at 70% pa.
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Of course when you diversify ................................................................. you do spread your risk as well. not many of us think of that, maybe it stupid I know..... Ohh look, the seagull is in the kitchen again.
Now instead of CML hitting a brick wall, you have CML or OMN or CML&OMN.
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Of course when you diversify ................................................................. you do spread your risk as well. not many of us think of that, maybe it stupid I know..... Ohh look, the seagull is in the kitchen again.
Now instead of CML hitting a brick wall, you have CML or OMN or CML&OMN.
Orca is not a fan of diversification ::)
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Of course when you diversify ................................................................. you do spread your risk as well. not many of us think of that, maybe it stupid I know..... Ohh look, the seagull is in the kitchen again.
Now instead of CML hitting a brick wall, you have CML or OMN or CML&OMN.
sOrry I need to clarify, when I say risk I mean Downward risk. What I am trying to say, currently Orca has CML, thus if CML goes down. If Orca now sells % of CML and buys OMN, his downward risk increases. Now CML or OMN has the risk of going down, when you have more shares, you limit your potential risk, but you do also increase your downward risk.
:wtf: damn, jaDEB, try and make sense...
??? I am trying, really I am..
:wall: Useless, I tell you, useless, only you would understand :wtf: you are trying to say.
aggg, just give me my tablets
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Orca is not a fan of diversification ::)
Yet he is a fan of the satrix indi... Confusing chap that :D
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I will eventually switch to the Indi but I need to make my target first. At this rate it should be November if all goes well. Then I can sit back and relax without worrying about money and stocks. A correction of 50% would not affect my standard of living. Been playing with Patrick's calculator.
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I have had very good growht with Omnia and positive it will continue, also nice divi of 2.70, LDT tomorrow, solid company.
Something for Orca to consider with EOH and STXIND.
Have all three in my LT Portfolio and happy with the growht. :)
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Orca is not a fan of diversification ::)
Yet he is a fan of the satrix indi... Confusing chap that :D
Yes - but not as half confusing as jaDEB :LHST:
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jaDEB's on tablets again. Perhaps go for Cipla now. :D
Been checking out OMN all morning. Looks like a great Co with good continuous earnings. Had my trigger finger ready to sell half my CML but even though it is at all time highs, buyers are still scrambling in with good volumes. It should go down with the market tomorrow so I'll see next week.
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Since we were getting off topic here I split the retirement related posts into a new thread here: http://www.shareforum.co.za/shares/reaching-financial-freedom/
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Remembrances and some forecasts.
Hehe.. I bought some prop. trusts way back then when bond yields hit 20%+
But .. lets not go there again please.
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Been checking for a replacement for my CML today again. EOH seems like it according to the charts. Now must still check sector PE and fundamentals.
OMN and OCE are good but 3 to 5 year chart shows that they are stuck in an upward trend much lower than EOH. OCE will get a boost upwards due to their recent acquisition and overtake OMN with the next results.
I only invest in past performance trend/momentum stocks so when I eventually retire, I will only have STXIND in my portfolio and will add some OMN for that extra gain.
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Hi orca, OMN has a current PE of 13 and EOH at 18. Underlying fundamentals and managment teams of both company's is very good and solid, just my opinion and please do your own research
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Here is a 3 year chart of EOH and OMN compared to the Indi. It is quite clear which will perform the best over the next 4 to 6 months. (my time frame).
Also, it can be seen why I would add OMN to Indi after I'm done with active investing. That extra 10 to 15% boost.
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Attention JaDEB. ;)
Market Commentator Weekly: Karl Leinberger - Coronation Fund Managers (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-market-commentator/market-commentator-weekly-karl-leinberger--coronat)
Interesting read. Reflects my sentiments on gold vs. platinum, BTI and SAB.
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Shoprite down over 3% after trading update.
But the turnover ouside of ZA is up.
When converted to rand, the turnover of the 153 supermarkets the Group operates
outside the borders of South Africa, increased by 27.9% compared to the 2012
reporting period. Taken at constant currencies these operations grew by 21.2%.
http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20130716140000&seq=12
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Attention JaDEB. ;)
Market Commentator Weekly: Karl Leinberger - Coronation Fund Managers (http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-market-commentator/market-commentator-weekly-karl-leinberger--coronat)
Interesting read. Reflects my sentiments on gold vs. platinum, BTI and SAB.
just to clarify , 1. I am afrikaans, 2. I have CML.
What I noticed the most is the following.
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, I don’t think
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, I think it
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja and I think it’s
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, we would agree
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, I think currency
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja that’s very
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, we five years
KARL LEINBERGER: Ja, we haven’t
and so on.... :wtf: :wall:
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He is German.......Ja?
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Jungs, aufgepasst, er könnte auch Afrikaans sein. :-[
(Watch it chaps, he could also be Afrikaans).
Ja mense, ek is drietalig, my moedertaal is Duits. :)
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Moon. Be careful with those dirty words like "könnte". You will get infractions or worse. :frustrated:
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:) Nice, you can do the 'umlaut' on your OS.
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SAB drops sharply after trading update for ¼ ended June 30th. SABMiller Quarterly Sales Miss Estimates on Wet European Weather (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/sabmiller-quarterly-sales-miss-estimates-on-wet-european-weather.html)
SENS (http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20130725120000&seq=20)
Good time to add - your views...
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A bit more Rand strengthening and then it will be a good time to add.
SAB drops sharply after trading update for ¼ ended June 30th. SABMiller Quarterly Sales Miss Estimates on Wet European Weather (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/sabmiller-quarterly-sales-miss-estimates-on-wet-european-weather.html)
SENS (http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20130725120000&seq=20)
Good time to add - your views...
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A bit more Rand strengthening and then it will be a good time to add.
SAB drops sharply after trading update for ¼ ended June 30th. SABMiller Quarterly Sales Miss Estimates on Wet European Weather (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/sabmiller-quarterly-sales-miss-estimates-on-wet-european-weather.html)
SENS (http://www.sharenet.co.za/v3/sens_display.php?tdate=20130725120000&seq=20)
Good time to add - your views...
Remember if you buy on or before LDT you will get the divi.
The rate of exchange determined on Wednesday, 24 July 2013 for converting to
South African Rand is US$:ZAR = 9.701047 resulting in an equivalent final
dividend of 746.98062 SA cents per share.
The dividend will be payable on Friday, 23 August 2013 to all shareholders
registered on the London and Johannesburg registers on Friday, 16 August 2013.
The ex-dividend trading dates will be Wednesday, 14 August 2013 on the London
Stock Exchange and Monday, 12 August 2013 on the JSE Limited.
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These are my picks for 60%+pa. I have checked their fundamentals out and can only see further growth in these.
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Cool, I have 2. CML and OCE.
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OCE should beat CML over the next 12 months jaDEB.
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Moneyweb yesterday.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-safm-market-update/r-1596
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PNC had a half year earnings report of 19.8% gain. No divi as they had acquisitions in mind. Bought PrecisionICT and 30% of Datacentrix.
SENS report states earnings now that they are "pleased" with of 14 to 18% for full year. Wow. No wonder it had the biggest correction ever.
MTA half year was 19%. Their full year is due tomorrow and no SENS. This caused a drop on Friday. Not bad though.
CML is Fully Valued. So it seems like I'm out of the Leaderboard competition.
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Any update on this topic, it would be greatly appreciated.
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You have revived an old thread and things have changed since. I am in no position to give advice if you look at my performance on the competition.
Then again, most of the top performers would not put real money into those stocks and are taking risks that you and I would not with actual investments.
This said, I would just chuck all my money into STXIND and leave it. For long term, industrial s will outperform all other indexes. We are at a wobble now and in the month of "May" that is notorious for bad returns. So keep watching the markets. STXIND is a bit high now.
You can add some alpha to that with MTA. Perhaps not now but once their debt has been paid after the humunges acquisition this share will soar. Look at their website. My favorite stock at this time.
As to PNC. My bad pick. Was a great stock until the fiasco. This was not expected and I'm sure memories are short and it will revive as did MTN.
OMN on the other hand has been hit with the miners strikes that are now coming to an end. This stock has over the years been posting great results and will continue to to do so. Read all the SENS and you will be surprised. When the PE goes too high, the results bring it back down. This happens every HY.
CML. What a great performer. Fully or over valued as she is, she can only go up. Her PE is a bit high but so are many with PE's of 600 and they are still in an up trend.
A Co with this many Plexcrowns awarded every year, she can only go up. Perhaps not as much as they have difficulty in buying stocks worth many millions as there are not enough sellers. They have reverted to acquisitions and off market negotiated prices.
My 2c
CML
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Talking about long term investments - If the market is destined for a serious pullback/crash, where do you put your money? What are the options? What do you guys call it, hedging?
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Nothing, nada, zip?? Well I would think cash but what a let down. Surely there must be a way to make money in bad and good times? ???
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Talking about long term investments - If the market is destined for a serious pullback/crash, where do you put your money? What are the options? What do you guys call it, hedging?
Put it into your bond if you have one otherwise ride it out.
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And make sure exiting the market won't cause you to be a trader.
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Thanks, for the update maybe a new topic would have been a better option, but thanks in any case. :TU: