Important to note is the correlation between REITS and bonds. When bond yields rise in an interest rate hiking cycle, the price of the bonds declines.
For instance a long term bond purchased at 8% (coupon rate), with a nominal value of 100 and issued at 100 means you will get
8X100÷100 = 8%
Now if interest rates rise to say 9% an investor in a 8% long term bond is no longer prepared to accept 8%. The market value of the
bond is adjusted to take account of the higher interest rate scenario (9%)
i.e an increase from from 8% to 9% = 12,5% increase.
This results in the price of the bond no longer being 100 but:
100-11,1111% = 88,88 (12,5 ÷ 112,5 = 11,1111)
So the investor is taking pain.
The correlation between bond yields and REIT yields means that REIT's will react similarly in a rising interest rate cycle. But unlike with bonds which have a fixed yield right to maturity, REITS increase their distributions annually and usually recover lost ground fairly quickly.
A downturn in the economy will also not be so good for REIT's - watch the vacancies.
My advice:
Consider only those REIT's that have offshore exposure and then primarily those with European/East European exposure as their interest rate hiking cycle is way behind that in the USA and ZA - interest rates there are ultra low and property companies there can borrow at 2-3% to invest in proerties yielding 6/7%. (NEPI/CCO/RPL to name a few). Plus they are Rand hedges !
In ZA, do what gcr did with Woolies, i.e invest in those REITS with property portfolios located in areas where the wealthy shop and live - they are immune to 'hard times' - think HYP.
RES is a special case, they have been ultra successful in nodes neglected by others outside the metros. Also they have meaningful holdings in NEPI,Rockcastle,FFB,Capital.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/property/listed-property-still-the-top-performing-asset-class/Note: valuations generally are quite high now, so with a few exceptions may want to wait a while before buying.
I wanted to post this under My Beginners Portfolio, so that gcr and Fawkes85 can read it.