Author Topic: Gold stocks  (Read 410 times)

chess and stocks

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Gold stocks
« on: June 25, 2019, 03:43:34 pm »
Gold price set and being forecast to head even higher. Wonder how much it will continue to spil over to our gold stocks like ANG, Sibanye, HAR and Goldfields ?. Ive got shares in all of them and just keep watching it closely

Bevan

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Re: Gold stocks
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2019, 04:19:25 pm »
Problem as always is the inverse correlation between gold and ZAR. Central banks are indeed buying gold en-mass now, as they spurn US Treasuries. The bond markets are signalling their fear of US debt levels and gold is benefitting from these concerns, as well as general US - Iran tensions, ongoing trade wars etc. Stock markets are very, very top heavy as companies have used all that lovely QE that has found its way to them, to buy back their own stocks. This has kept stock markets absurdly high even as the aging generation (who generally outnumber the young in developed economies) pulls their money from stocks into safer assets, like gold.

I don't see gold popping yet but it's coming... The dream scenario for SA gold stockholders is a gold spike, together with another economic collapse / emerging market risk-off sentiment i.e. weaker Rand. I reckon inside of the next 1-3 years.... Interestingly, I reckon SA will recover quicker and faster than most developed nations, who will go into a Japanese style deflation scenario for a long time...

Bevan

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Re: Gold stocks
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2019, 07:29:38 pm »
I don't see gold popping yet but it's coming... The dream scenario for SA gold stockholders is a gold spike, together with another economic collapse / emerging market risk-off sentiment i.e. weaker Rand. I reckon inside of the next 1-3 years.... Interestingly, I reckon SA will recover quicker and faster than most developed nations, who will go into a Japanese style deflation scenario for a long time...

In case no-one has noticed, this dream scenario is busy unfolding for SA gold.... Stock markets look likely to head even further south from here on and whilst they will bounce back, 2019 looks like being another negative or flat year for equity markets. Interestingly, it's almost impossible to buy Kruger Rands at the moment. Apparently, as soon as the Mint opens every day, the available quota for the day is snapped up within minutes....

Whilst I don't think we will see a 1930's depression unfold, at least not yet because the US Dollar still seems to be currency to flee to in a crisis. Of course this is totally nuts as the US is indebted more than any other nation in the history of this planet. This penny has dropped to most of the ultra high net worths already and finally the large funds are starting to realise it. However, everyone is like the proverbial deer caught in the headlights. There is nowhere to turn to preserve value, never mind make a return. Gold, whether you love it or hate it, is becoming the only investable market. In localised markets property, diesel and bread (in fact most food and water) will hold their value too.

Bevan

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Re: Gold stocks
« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2019, 07:36:48 pm »
It's also interesting how many started trying to say that crypto markets were a great inverse correlation to equities etc. That they would perform just as well as gold due to their rarity value, which is what Satoshi originally tried to design into BTC. However, everyone knows that fear and greed (and when joined together, FOMO) have been largely responsible for crypto price moves.

So that supposedly inverse correlation is busy breaking down fast i.e. when all markets crash, investors tend to get margin calls. This results in often selling other positions to cover the calls. However, no-one sells their physical gold to cover a margin call. Rather sell this stupid thing called a Bitcoin, which doesn't seem to have any utility value anyway. If you try to buy a pizza with it, the transaction fees would probably be worth more than the pizza anyway.  :D  (Yes, I know you can't buy a pizza with gold either, although you probably could, but that's not what gold is there for. It's there to keep just ahead of inflation.)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 07:38:55 pm by Bevan »

jaDEB

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Re: Gold stocks
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2019, 10:03:59 am »
On 17 Mar 2010, the now-defunct BitcoinMarket.com exchange is the first one that starts operating. On 22 May 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made the first real-world transaction by buying two pizzas in Jacksonville, Florida for 10,000 BTC. In five days, the price grew 1000%, rising from $0.008 to $0.08 for 1 bitcoin
jaDEB

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Bevan

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Re: Gold stocks
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2019, 08:28:44 pm »
On 17 Mar 2010, the now-defunct BitcoinMarket.com exchange is the first one that starts operating. On 22 May 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made the first real-world transaction by buying two pizzas in Jacksonville, Florida for 10,000 BTC. In five days, the price grew 1000%, rising from $0.008 to $0.08 for 1 bitcoin

Back then it was faster, cheap and useable. Try buying a pizza today with a few Satoshis. The fees would kill the transaction, and it would take a few hours to go through to the pizza man. I know people that use it to transact (no, not all my friends are online drug and arms dealers) but it's more of a novelty value now. Many Zimbabweans also still use it as it can sometimes be cheaper than the taxi fees to transport hard currency across the border.