Author Topic: Gold & Gold Shares  (Read 105752 times)

Bluebull2007

  • I've just arrived
  • *
  • Posts: 4
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #75 on: July 08, 2013, 03:12:12 am »
Thanks for the link Nivek.

There are some unbelievably cheap mining stocks out there, and it will stay this way for the next few months before things start to come back. I reckon this will be towards the end of the summer holidays, perhaps as late as Oct/Nov. (I HOPE it does by then anyway!  :( )

 Frankly buying South African stocks to me is not very bright given the optics of unions, government blaming Goldfields exec's for deaths etc. and other bad politics.

There are too many other good mining companies in other jurisdictions that do not have these problems that are also going at bargain rates. So why should an investor bother with South African risk?

That said, some of the more successful companies are still potentially good buys. Might be a good idea to pick up some cheaper stock now to lower your average price if are already in these stocks.

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #76 on: July 08, 2013, 10:14:24 am »
Read somewhere this weekend that GP will drop below $1000 soon. With the ZAR weakening this will be a disaster for gold mines. Most marginal grade deep mines cannot operate profitabily at $1300 or less with ZAR at 10.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #77 on: July 12, 2013, 09:57:08 am »
I can see why Coronation acquired 5% of AGL.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

gcr

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1008
  • Karma: +28/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #78 on: July 12, 2013, 11:08:46 am »
Now if only some or other fund manager will buy up a reasonable parcel 5/6% of Gold Fields and nudge the price up a bit more I will be in positive territory :))
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

yozzi

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 157
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #79 on: July 12, 2013, 03:37:37 pm »
Read somewhere this weekend that GP will drop below $1000 soon. With the ZAR weakening this will be a disaster for gold mines. Most marginal grade deep mines cannot operate profitabily at $1300 or less with ZAR at 10.

Reading all this is depressing me as right now I'm holding the following gold shares:

64000 VILLAGE bought at R1.70 ea
100000 GOLDONE bought at R4.30 ea

Apart from the obvious and selling at a huge loss can anyone suggest a less painful way of getting out of this situation or offer any light at the end of the tunnel?

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #80 on: July 12, 2013, 04:04:11 pm »
I did post a chart just above here today. Have a look at it. A turning point perhaps.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #81 on: July 12, 2013, 05:44:42 pm »
Yo Yo Yozzie. Why wait so long to ask. Invested R539K and have R161K left. That is a 70% loss.  :frustrated: We could have worked out an exit and regain strategy for you. A bit late now but as I said, Coronation is expecting an upturn and they can't afford to be wrong as they do Pension Funds and Medical Aid Funds.
So you either hold out or cut your losses and invest in stocks that have made good acquisitions recently. Cutting losses will take you 2 to 3 years to get it all back.   
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Patrick

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2551
  • Karma: +47/-2
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #82 on: July 12, 2013, 06:15:24 pm »
I did post a chart just above here today. Have a look at it. A turning point perhaps.

I have a friend who worked for village until today in fact. They closed her office, she was the one to switch off the lights on the way out.

That's a horrible situation. You have a choice, either hold the shares and hope for a recovery, or sell for something that offers growth and just wait for a few years to recover your cash and start making growth.

Do you see a recovery in mining anytime soon? Personally I don't, not with the state of labour as it is. :wall:

Probably best you give this a read: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position

Moonraker

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1095
  • Karma: +31/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #83 on: July 12, 2013, 06:51:54 pm »

Do you see a recovery in mining anytime soon? Personally I don't, not with the state of labour as it is. :wall:

Probably best you give this a read: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position
No. Think Eurozone. Without a meaningful recovery there you won't see resources taking off. It is bigger than China's economy, so weak or no growth in Eurozone countries will also stymie China manufactured exports to the Eurozone, meaning less demand for the stuff from China and so on.
Gold - depends on Fed/ECB tapering, when and how much.
Of the precious metals, Platinum probably has the best prospects going forward.

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #84 on: July 12, 2013, 07:43:30 pm »
So Yozzi. I feel for you as I went through the same. Lost R150K on my FX gold and R350k on the JSE in 2009. Got it back though with staying out of miners. Scored 3 fold since.
Consensus is SELL and put your money stocks that go UP. 
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

yozzi

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 157
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #85 on: July 13, 2013, 11:21:07 am »
Thanks guys for the advice and think I'll sell a % of the shares and keep the rest hoping for a bit of a recovery in the next 6 mths or so but it's just a case of damage limitation!

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4551
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #86 on: July 17, 2013, 02:52:24 pm »
Should we not try some Gold.......speak to me  :wall: :wall: :TU: :wall: :wall:
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it

gcr

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1008
  • Karma: +28/-1
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #87 on: July 17, 2013, 04:19:09 pm »
Should we not try some Gold.......speak to me  :wall: :wall: :TU: :wall: :wall:
I have been purchasing Goldfields over the last couple of months (since they spun off Sibanye) and my average purchase price is R 56.92 and over the last 2 weeks my paper losses have dropped quite substantially. The only reason for buying GFI was that once they spun off Sibanye their price fell quite considerably, and still think it has the potential to rebound - not to the same highs as before but I do think it could go back to about R 80 to R 85 per share. I think gold mines will only commit new funds once all the labour issues are resolved and the government would be even more stupid if they didn't allow some relaxation on labour laws as they derive q substantial sum of revenue from all mines. The one thing that still does worry me is that mines are getting deeper and more costly to mine and that we have dropped to 5th position as a world producers. Once demand exceeds production then prices should move up especially dollar gold price and if returns improve on the mines. Think mines are looking hard at greater mechanisation as labour costs are exhorbitant
My Goldfields represent 7% of my total portfolio
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Orca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2280
  • Karma: +54/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #88 on: July 17, 2013, 05:10:37 pm »
I agree with what Ian Cruxshank, the independent analyst said on Business News yesterday. "Gold  Miners are for Trading and most definitely not for Investing".
 
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

jaDEB

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4551
  • Karma: +31/-3
    • View Profile
Re: Gold & Gold Shares
« Reply #89 on: July 17, 2013, 05:23:54 pm »
Agree Orca. Trading.... I am bored.....thus want to trade with 10% of portfolio.

Grrr, why Goldfields and not SGL. I like their div policy.
jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it