The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: jaDEB on April 03, 2013, 10:33:17 am
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Gold Price is hurting me....... :o
How do I insert pic, tried the insert image above...
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Never mind, it is there.......
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Wait, it says I am newbie, that means Noob..... ::)
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Ok so now it says I've just arrived instead of newbie. The default groups go as follows, feel like inventing some clever and fun names?
Name Stars Members Required posts Modify
I've just arrived 8 0
Jr. Member 0 50
Full Member 0 100
Sr. Member 0 250
Hero Member 0 500
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Just kiddin, Newbie was fine. Reading "Hero" member. I assume u also a gamer?
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$1550 seems to be a strong support. Honestly I'm surprised it's dropped this low. I would have thought with the Cyprus trouble people would want to be in gold.
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I suppose 'no pain no gain' doesn't apply here ? :)
Goldman Cuts Gold Price Forecast Through 2014 as Cycle Turns (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-lowers-gold-price-forecast-through-2014-as-cycle-turns.html)
The turn in the gold price cycle is accelerating after a 12-year rally as the recovery in the U.S. economy gains momentum, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which reduced forecasts for the metal through 2014.
The bank cut its three-month target to $1,530 an ounce from $1,615 and lowered the six- and 12-month predictions to $1,490 and $1,390 from $1,600 and $1,550. Goldman recommended closing a long Comex gold position initiated on Oct. 11, 2010 for a potential gain of $219 an ounce, analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report today..
Remember, when times are really s#*t, who will have the dinero to buy the friggin stuff ? Only for barter then my friend. ;)
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Thanks Mr Bond, a financial oke on radio said that although the rand is strengthening in the short term, they predict it will be gradually weaken in the next couple of years. I have DRD and SGL which is Rand / Gold. But yes I agree with u, my investment is short term on these ones.
PS. WTF is Ms Moneypenny and Mr Bond doing things on same chat sites. R both u?
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jaDEB, not sure what you're asking, but no :)
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PS. WTF is Ms Moneypenny and Mr Bond doing things on same chat sites. R both u?
Nope, sorry JaDEB. :-\
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A plausible reason why gold shares have performed so dismally, may be due to Gold ETF's where investors can participate directly in movements of the gold price without the risk inherent in individual gold stocks where you get cost miscalculations, labour issues, poor decisions by management etc.
Then we have the probability of the FED throttling or discontinuing quantitative easing, not right now, but it must happen sometime.
So, jaDEB, maybe rather go for Gold ETF's. Can't help out there as I am not familiar with what is available out there.
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I agree Mr Bond, I hope that my SGL and DRD gets into profit. Then I will climb out. Saying that SGL I bought due to split from Goldfields and it has a PE of 2.5 and they indicated that they want to end up being 1 of the highest divvie payers. Also off course, I might think some1 in the east's finger is itchy and they might just, might just press red button.
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Here's a very interesting article where the author speculates that the gold price may be busy being manipulated: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/13/its-a-mad-mad-market-world/
In the past, the fearful have bought gold and driven up bullion prices to nearly US$2,000 an ounce in recent history.
What’s curious is that gold prices have ebbed, the bitcoin is not a viable alternative and yet fears remain. Even worse is that the debt and currency contagion has spread and the world’s four biggest economic entities – the U.S., EU, China and Japan – are printing and piling on debts with frightening speed.
So why isn’t gold at US$4,000 an ounce?
One bearish factor this week was Goldman Sachs’s downgrade of its gold price forecast for the second time in weeks. Commenting that “conviction in holding gold is quickly waning,” Goldman’s forecast is an average of $1,545 an ounce in 2013 and $1,350 in 2014.
Gold bugs claim that a conspiracy exists to dampen gold’s values. One of the theorists is Reaganomics guru Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Treasury Secretary.
This week he wrote: “Financial and economic Armageddon might be close at hand. The evidence for this conclusion is the concerted effort by the Federal Reserve and its dependent financial institutions to scare people away from gold and silver by driving down their prices. When gold hit $1,900, the Federal Reserve panicked because they realized with the dollar deteriorating so rapidly, compared to bullion prices, that soon it would also deteriorate its exchange value with other currencies. The Fed had to cap the price of gold and stop the rise.”
It’s certainly one explanation as to why gold is down given eurozone, Japanese, American and now Chinese woes. But another is that speculators have been dumping gold ETFs and flooding into the U.S. dollar, U.S. equities and the US-dollar denominated bonds.
The Yankee dollar has become a safe haven again.
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More here (http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-political-economy?oid=186001&sn=Detail), Nivek.
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Gold closed at 1,476, who could have guessed. :o
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The drop in the gold price is said to be due to signs of the US economy improving, and consequently talk of an end to stimulus.
Now can someone explain what degree of improvement is expected given that the worlds second largest trading block, the EU, is
totally and utterly in the doldrums, with several EU members posting negative GDP growth ?
Or is the Yankee market so huge and self sufficient that they don't need to export to the EU ? :P
I don't quite see a lasting recovery in the USA, just more of the same with occasional positive pointers.
However, I may be totally wrong, after all we have China (sarcasm). (That's one nations products I loathe and
wherever possible try to avoid buying.) >:(
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Agree with you Mr Bond
Portugal could struggle to avoid a second international rescue even if it, alongside Ireland, is granted more time to repay its existing bailout loans by eurozone finance ministers meeting in Dublin on Friday.
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Yet another well thought out article on market rigging: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100024081/the-gold-price-crash-is-further-evidence-of-market-rigging/
As John Mauldin, one of the most impressive macro analysts out there, wrote in his newsletter this morning:
Five hundred tons of paper gold contracts were sold dumped into the market on Friday. That is a lot of gold. In short, some people sold gold like they had a gun to their heads, in such a quantity and with such ferocity that the likelihood of their being a for-profit seller is right up there with my chances of winning this week's Masters
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According to Clifford Bennett, chief economist at financial services firm The White Crane Group, the perception of gold among investors has changed but the forces driving the precious metal have not.
He says that once traders with short positions in gold start to unwind their bets, the price of gold should rally as quickly as it fell over recent trading sessions.
(Read More: Market Tumble an Overdue Reality Check? )
"I sincerely believe that the moment the now significant short position holders begin to take profit, that this market will rally at least 50 percent of the fall just seen, just as rapidly," Bennett said in a note.
Disappointing U.S. and Chinese economic news in recent days and fears that Cyprus, and possibly other central banks, could dump their gold reserves have fueled negative sentiment towards the precious metal.
Gold prices have plunged about 16 percent over the past week to hit a two-year low of $1,321 per ounce on Tuesday, later rebounding to $1,367. The market suffered its sharpest ever one-day slide on Monday.
In a bid to stabilize volatility in gold markets, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group said it has raised collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business on Tuesday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-bugs-still-hanging-114111520.html
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The trouble is that folks are getting impatient with holding and waiting for inflation to take off. That hasn't happened for many years now, on the contrary, there is borderline deflation in many developed economies.
TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) have accordingly suffered a huge selloff.
TIPS Take a Beating as Inflation Worries Wane (http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/TIPS-Beating-Inflatio-Worries/2013/04/14/id/499388)
After buying TIPS through December, the Minneapolis-based firm has been selling the securities. TIPS have suffered a sell- off during each of the past five years even though the Fed has pumped more than $2.5 trillion into the economy through its bond purchase programs in a policy known as quantitative easing.
“We’ve been told to expect inflation every year for the last four years and it hasn’t happened,” James Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management LLC in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said in an April 10 telephone interview. “I’m not a big believer that you have to buy inflation protection here.” Kochan said he has been advising investors to sell TIPS.
Sorry to take the wind out of your sails JaDEB ;D
For what it's worth, I reckon that inflation will indeed make an appearance, but who knows when ? The Japs have been waiting for 20± years. ;)
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Thanks Mr Bond,
I sold my SGL at R11.20, then bought DRD at R5.70, they produce gold at a lower cost and they are bringing results out 25th April.
I do not see this as long term, I just think that it is overdone. Thus I will sell shortly couple of weeks or so, irrelevant up or down.
PS. Do u not find the "other" site is more about C's lately, CFD's & CML.
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I was going to add this to my previous post, but you beat me to it.
Edit: The above reason is of course not enough to account for the declines. The futures market (COMEX) traded 2300 tons of the stuff on Monday. That is equivalent to 80% of total yearly mine production. Cyprus would be a piddling 10 tons.
A small but powerful number of futures traders are obviously manipulating the market. It will probably take quite some time for the gold price to get back to the 1500/1600$ levels. For instance more QE, instead of a winding down of QE; possible, but that would simply push out the day of reckoning.
The other forum is more for traders (90% of posts), and our friend from MAD. ;D
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Down load this thingy, very nice, it keeps Gold, Silver, plat, Pall and Rho prices running live on your computer at the bottom.
http://applications.kitco.com/supportcenter/taskbar/index.html
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Down load this thingy, very nice, it keeps Gold, Silver, plat, Pall and Rho prices running live on your computer at the bottom.
http://applications.kitco.com/supportcenter/taskbar/index.html
Thanks, but I don't run Windows.
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They have it for all, windows, doors, appl, Ipods.
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They have it for all, windows, doors, appl, Ipods.
I see they have it for some Linux flavours. I could probably use the one for Fedora 13 on one of my 4 Linux distros.
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Warren Buffet - some things he said that you probably have heard. ;)
“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow,” Buffett wrote last year in a letter to shareholders. “During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth -- for a while.”
“If you put your money into gold or other non-income- producing assets that are dependent on what someone else values that in the future, you’re in speculation,” he said. “You’re not into investing.”
He asked readers to picture the world’s entire gold stock melded together into a cube 68 feet (21 meters) on each side valued at $9.6 trillion at then- prevailing prices. For the same amount, an investor could have purchased all the farmland in the U.S., 16 replicas of Exxon Mobil Corp., and still have about $1 trillion of “walking- around money.”
A century later, the farmland will be producing valuable crops no matter the currency, and dividends from the companies would probably added up to trillions of dollars, Buffett wrote.
The 170,000 metric tons of gold “will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything,” he wrote. “You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”
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Cube 68 feet (21 meters), they discussed it last night in IQ, Steven Frey. Interesting as well, if you take 1 ton off cellphones, there is more gold in there than 1 ton of sand/ore when they actually mine. Thus gold (I think) is actually one of the best conductors you can get, and does get used other than jewelry.
But I do see what you are saying, and agree fully. I need to recover about another 10%, all ready am up 6% with my DRD. Then I will climb out.
I just think (not good at it though) that gold is oversold, and of course some1 on radio said that the rand will weaken in the 2 years or so.
Also, say I sell DRD tomorrow, where do I put it. That has such a potential recovery ...
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I just think (not good at it though) that gold is oversold, and of course some1 on radio said that the rand will weaken in the 2 years or so.
Also, say I sell DRD tomorrow, where do I put it. That has such a potential recovery ...
The crux of the clip ? Nobody knows the fair value and things could go the other way. Useful eh ? ;D
Never take the advice posted on forums. ;)
If you don't trade because like me, you have better things to do than sitting in front of your computer worrying about when to set
stop losses etc. then rather go for stocks like BTI and SAB and Bidvest and APN and hold them through the years. They too will all
benefit from a weakening Rand. (Edit: and CML of course - yield, yield, yield !)
That way you have less worries and more time for gaming, and I have more time for playing with my Linux distros. 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7QROTePSFw
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THe oke looks (facial) like he has lots of SGL shares - down another 6% in US. :o :o
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Candy Floss.... ::)
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Gold is playing with the 1400 level ... ;)
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I hope gold consolidates at the levels and not fall back below 1400
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jaDEB - you gotta be smiling today....?
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Yes, but only cause I am recovering. but gold is back down to 1408 from 1420, hope when US opens they push gold up. :-\
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This should make you feel just a little bit better jaDEB ..
Gold extended gains above $1,400 an ounce on signs that jewelers and other users of the metal are taking advantage of the biggest slump in prices in three decades. Silver headed for the worst week in almost 19 months.
The premium for metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is as much as $10 an ounce, in Turkey it’s almost $20 and in Asia it’s about $5, Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said by e-mail. Last week, it was about $1 in Asia and Dubai, he said.
“Physical demand is extraordinary,” Sin said today.
Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 2.6 percent to $1,426.05 an ounce and was up 1.6 percent by 11:53 a.m. in London. Prices are down 16 percent this year and dropped to $1,321.95 an ounce on April 16, the lowest since January 2011. Gold futures for June delivery climbed 1.4 percent to $1,412.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Gold Gaining as Physical Demand Said to Be ‘Extraordinary’ (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/gold-gaining-as-physical-demand-said-to-be-extraordinary-.html)
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Jadeb, are you trading or investing?
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Investing
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See below
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Here's How To Tell When To Move Back Into Gold (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/heres-how-to-tell-when-to-move-back-into-gold-cm240102#ixzz2ROWiwd77)
In a nutshell the author states:
Applying an annual growth in demand of 2.6% on top of the inflation rates to gold's price since 1989 yields an intrinsic value of $1,269, or 9% lower than its current close.
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Thanks Mr Bond,
Barrick brought out their results, cost cutting and so on. HAR is up 9%in US as I am typing this. DRD results out in the morning..let's see what happens. :-\
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Next target, 1450..
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:o
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We got past the 1450 lvl, now 1480 is our next target.
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If you ask me, the recent steep gains just add fuel to the fire about alleged manipulation in the price recently...
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Why is it turning now? Currently @ 1462
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Maybe it's just taking a breather, has had a hard run. from 1350 to 1460....needs to chill here some, then something needs to happen to give it legs....hopefully...
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Check out gold spike .. whoo hooooooo
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SGL at R8.50, it just does not make sense.
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Prices will close the year at $1,550 an ounce, 7.5 percent less than at the end of 2012 and the biggest drop since 1997, according to the median of 38 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-01/gold-bull-run-seen-over-as-bear-drop-frays-faithful-commodities.html
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SGL results out tomorrow. Shares traded 6m, kinda high volume.
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Sibanye Gold Limited
March 2013 quarter salient features
A 121% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating profit to R1,518 million (US$171 million).
Free cash generation of R590 million (US$66 million) during the quarter.
A 36 per cent quarter-on-quarter gold production increase to 9,312 kilograms (299,400 ounces).
A 22 per cent quarter-on-quarter reduction in notional cash expenditure ("NCE") to R381,347 per kilogram
(US$1,334 per ounce).
Net debt of R2.8 billion (US$304 million) as at 30 April 2013.
A 327% increase in available cash from 31 December 2012 to R1.2 billion (US$130 million)on 30 April 2013.
Excellent safety performance with the group now in line with United States underground fatality rates.
Good progress made with implementation of the group business process re-engineering ("BPR") initiatives
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This is some1 from JPMorgan, yes the same JP Morgan that indicated few ago gold at 1350 / 1100, which started the fall in gold and are causing people to lose their jobs in gold sector.... go figure.
J.P.Morgan Caznove’s Allan Cooke, Steve Shepherd and Abhishek Tiwari believe gold will average about $1,600 an ounce this year but should finish strong and trade near $1,700 by the end of year, where it will stay through 2014. Of course, that’s down from their previous forecast of $1,800 and ounce. In an environment where the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has dropped 13% during the past three months, that’s practically shouting from the rooftops.
“The gold price corrected sharply in April and is seen supported by retail and central bank demand, ongoing monetary stimulus in the US, Japan and Europe and ultra low interest rates in the developed world,” the three analysts write.
A gold recovery would surely boost gold miners, who have been hammered by worries that the price of gold would fall below their costs. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for instance, has dropped 38% this year.
But South African miners have their own issue, Cooke, Shepherd and Tiwari say:
We remain concerned SA gold share ratings may languish despite our undemanding valuations since catalysts appear negative to us in the near term. The local labour climate remains troubled with wage negotiations set to begin in June. They will be difficult given the unfortunate precedents set last year in the platinum industry and ongoing, bitter union rivalry. The pullback in the gold price hasn’t helped ratings and gold shares have, unsurprisingly, sold off sharply. This is an opportunity to buy selectively, in our view.
Their favorites include Gold Fields (GFI), which is the least exposed to South Africa, , and Sibanye Gold (SBGL), which has nothing but South Africa exposure yet has been beaten down enough to warrant an upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.
They also like Randgold Resources (GOLD) and Istanbul-listed Koza Gold. “These stocks are defensive by dint of their relatively high free cash flow margins and strong growth prospects, in our view,” Cooke, Shepherd and Tiwari say. “We expect our gold share picks to outperform gold/ETF (+15%) on a 12m view.”
Gold Fields has gained 1.2% to $6.81 today, after dropping 37% through May 7, while Randgold has risen 1.9% to $79.62 today, after dropping 21%. Sibanye, which was spun out of Gold Fields earlier this year, has surged 7.9% to $3.81 today, after plunging 36% during the past month.
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But South African miners have their own issue, Cooke, Shepherd and Tiwari say:
We remain concerned SA gold share ratings may languish despite our undemanding valuations since catalysts appear negative to us in the near term. The local labour climate remains troubled with wage negotiations set to begin in June. They will be difficult given the unfortunate precedents set last year in the platinum industry and ongoing, bitter union rivalry. The pullback in the gold price hasn’t helped ratings and gold shares have, unsurprisingly, sold off sharply. This is an opportunity to buy selectively, in our view.
That's the trouble I have with SA gold miners. I think labour trouble is only going to increase. A move to less labour intensive, more mechanised mining may be the answer, but is that option feasible in terms of technology, government pressure etc?
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JaDEB, how you feeling about SGL right now ? ;)
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I feel OK about SGL, it is now 14% of my portfolio. They predict a 98c earnings and a good dividend policy. Thus I hope to shoot the lights with this 1, once that happens.
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From MoneyWeb
JOHANNESBURG - The payments made by South Africa’s major miners towards the salaries of National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) officials were the subject of a lengthy discussion at the annual general meeting (AGM) of AngloGold Ashanti (JSE:ANG) on Monday, after a shareholder called for an immediate end to the practice.
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Ag tog...........1412......... :'( :'( :'(
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Special: Breaking News for JaDEB :D
Gold Seen Crushed as Credit Suisse Forecasts $1,100 in Year (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-seen-falling-to-1-100-an-ounce-in-a-year-by-credit-suisse.html)
and ..
“May’s Fund Manager Survey demonstrates a clear exit from China and assets connected to China such as commodities and emerging market equities," said Michael Hartnett‚ chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
SA least favoured emerging market (http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SA-least-favoured-emerging-market-poll-20130515)
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Thanks Mr Bond,
JP Morgan said 1200, then 2 weeks later some1 from JP Morgan said 1800/1600. Now these chops...but cool, did u see the rand ... Now R9.42 to the dollar.
Mr Bond, can u not go and cause some destruction some where. I push the gold price up?
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Maybe Jimmy Page and The Black Crowes will get it pumping...<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKTGQKNxTDY>
If that doesn't work, Led Zeppelin - Black Dog ... <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6L4GixccLU>
(Copy links without the <> :P )
;D
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You can just paste the URL, I have a video plugin that embeds automatically :)
Edit: I've been out-thunk ;D
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You can just paste the URL, I have a video plugin that embeds automatically :)
I know, didn't want to clog things up with something that is off-topic.
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Here jaDEB......have a cup.........
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Special .. for gold bugs. ;)
A Gold Forecast That Will Shock the World (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/a-gold-forecast-that-will-shock-the-world(2)-cm247276)
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Share code: SGL
ISIN – ZAE000173951
Issuer code: SGL
DEALING IN SECURITIES BY A DIRECTOR
In compliance with paragraphs 3.63 to 3.74 of the
Listings Requirements of JSE Limited ("the Listings
Requirements") we hereby advise that Mr K A Rayner, an
Independent Non-Executive Director of Sibanye Gold, has bought
the Company’s shares in the market in his own capacity.
Details of the transaction are set out below:
K A Rayner
Nature of transaction On market purchase of shares
Transaction Date 20 May 2013
Number of Shares 70 000
Class of Security Ordinary shares
Market Price per share R7.066132
Total Value R494 629.24
Nature of interest Direct and Beneficial
In terms of paragraph 3.66 of the Listings requirements the
necessary clearance to deal in the above securities has been
obtained.
21 May 2013
Sponsor:
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The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Sibanye Gold Ltd have a median target of 1,200, with a high estimate of 1,700 and a low estimate of 800.00. The median estimate represents a 77.78% increase from the last price of 675.00.
http://markets.ft.com/Research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=SGL:JNB
But... do these analysts know much about Amcu and Numsa?
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Well jaDEB my only suggestion to you is buy more of these shares when your next R 100,000 becomes available in just over a weeks time - averaging seems to be the only way out of your hole (no pun intended) :o
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The comp is not so serious....as all I can win is a spin on Patrick's bike... :o. I actually have SGL bought at R8.11
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jaDEB. Wake up. Tomahawk is beating you by a small margin.
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Gold above $1400 and the Rant at R9.80 ;)
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:laugh:
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SGL up 14% in US ....... >: :LHST:
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I hold quite a batch of them on my real account, so am also 8)
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Great infographic here, notice South Africa is currently the most expensive place in the world to produce gold. (Source: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-the-cost-of-mining-gold)
(http://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/what-is-cost-of-mining-gold.jpg)
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Thanks for the link Nivek.
There are some unbelievably cheap mining stocks out there, and it will stay this way for the next few months before things start to come back. I reckon this will be towards the end of the summer holidays, perhaps as late as Oct/Nov. (I HOPE it does by then anyway! :( )
Frankly buying South African stocks to me is not very bright given the optics of unions, government blaming Goldfields exec's for deaths etc. and other bad politics.
There are too many other good mining companies in other jurisdictions that do not have these problems that are also going at bargain rates. So why should an investor bother with South African risk?
That said, some of the more successful companies are still potentially good buys. Might be a good idea to pick up some cheaper stock now to lower your average price if are already in these stocks.
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Read somewhere this weekend that GP will drop below $1000 soon. With the ZAR weakening this will be a disaster for gold mines. Most marginal grade deep mines cannot operate profitabily at $1300 or less with ZAR at 10.
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I can see why Coronation acquired 5% of AGL.
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Now if only some or other fund manager will buy up a reasonable parcel 5/6% of Gold Fields and nudge the price up a bit more I will be in positive territory :))
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Read somewhere this weekend that GP will drop below $1000 soon. With the ZAR weakening this will be a disaster for gold mines. Most marginal grade deep mines cannot operate profitabily at $1300 or less with ZAR at 10.
Reading all this is depressing me as right now I'm holding the following gold shares:
64000 VILLAGE bought at R1.70 ea
100000 GOLDONE bought at R4.30 ea
Apart from the obvious and selling at a huge loss can anyone suggest a less painful way of getting out of this situation or offer any light at the end of the tunnel?
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I did post a chart just above here today. Have a look at it. A turning point perhaps.
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Yo Yo Yozzie. Why wait so long to ask. Invested R539K and have R161K left. That is a 70% loss. :frustrated: We could have worked out an exit and regain strategy for you. A bit late now but as I said, Coronation is expecting an upturn and they can't afford to be wrong as they do Pension Funds and Medical Aid Funds.
So you either hold out or cut your losses and invest in stocks that have made good acquisitions recently. Cutting losses will take you 2 to 3 years to get it all back.
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I did post a chart just above here today. Have a look at it. A turning point perhaps.
I have a friend who worked for village until today in fact. They closed her office, she was the one to switch off the lights on the way out.
That's a horrible situation. You have a choice, either hold the shares and hope for a recovery, or sell for something that offers growth and just wait for a few years to recover your cash and start making growth.
Do you see a recovery in mining anytime soon? Personally I don't, not with the state of labour as it is. :wall:
Probably best you give this a read: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp)
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Do you see a recovery in mining anytime soon? Personally I don't, not with the state of labour as it is. :wall:
Probably best you give this a read: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp)
No. Think Eurozone. Without a meaningful recovery there you won't see resources taking off. It is bigger than China's economy, so weak or no growth in Eurozone countries will also stymie China manufactured exports to the Eurozone, meaning less demand for the stuff from China and so on.
Gold - depends on Fed/ECB tapering, when and how much.
Of the precious metals, Platinum probably has the best prospects going forward.
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So Yozzi. I feel for you as I went through the same. Lost R150K on my FX gold and R350k on the JSE in 2009. Got it back though with staying out of miners. Scored 3 fold since.
Consensus is SELL and put your money stocks that go UP.
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Thanks guys for the advice and think I'll sell a % of the shares and keep the rest hoping for a bit of a recovery in the next 6 mths or so but it's just a case of damage limitation!
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Should we not try some Gold.......speak to me :wall: :wall: :TU: :wall: :wall:
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Should we not try some Gold.......speak to me :wall: :wall: :TU: :wall: :wall:
I have been purchasing Goldfields over the last couple of months (since they spun off Sibanye) and my average purchase price is R 56.92 and over the last 2 weeks my paper losses have dropped quite substantially. The only reason for buying GFI was that once they spun off Sibanye their price fell quite considerably, and still think it has the potential to rebound - not to the same highs as before but I do think it could go back to about R 80 to R 85 per share. I think gold mines will only commit new funds once all the labour issues are resolved and the government would be even more stupid if they didn't allow some relaxation on labour laws as they derive q substantial sum of revenue from all mines. The one thing that still does worry me is that mines are getting deeper and more costly to mine and that we have dropped to 5th position as a world producers. Once demand exceeds production then prices should move up especially dollar gold price and if returns improve on the mines. Think mines are looking hard at greater mechanisation as labour costs are exhorbitant
My Goldfields represent 7% of my total portfolio
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I agree with what Ian Cruxshank, the independent analyst said on Business News yesterday. "Gold Miners are for Trading and most definitely not for Investing".
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Agree Orca. Trading.... I am bored.....thus want to trade with 10% of portfolio.
Grrr, why Goldfields and not SGL. I like their div policy.
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Agree Orca. Trading.... I am bored.....thus want to trade with 10% of portfolio.
Grrr, why Goldfields and not SGL. I like their div policy.
I think there was a very specific reason for the hiving off of SGL by GFI and that was to ring fence the SA assets. If there was a crunch and mines were nationalized and or mineral rights were terminated ort made more onerous it could have affected GFI quite significantly. By ring fencing and then hiving off the SA assets it reduces its exposure to the uncertainty in this country. There is still lots of mutterings around its BEE deal and this was one of the reasons why it's price took a hammering. To my mind they are now a more diversely spread mining company where SA constitutes 23.42% of their total activity so if things sour in SA then it will not be a total train smash for them. SGL also has Froneman as CEO, and Vilakazi as director none of whom I like particularly so won't invest in their business - the same reason apply to Village from my perspective. So that's my take on why I went for GFI
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Thanks gcr, that's why I lurk on these sites. Good guidance. ;)
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jaDEB :frustrated:
I have been telling you this for a long time now and have I not proved myself correct? Look at Simmers and the other smaller gold Co's.
Village!!
If you are addicted to miners, then just do AGL. Coronation just acquired 5% of AGL. :)
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LOL sorry sir, will go sit in corner.... ???..Actually I just looked at ANG graph this morning, thinking that. Also BIL has been moving up nice. But I know what you mean Orca...will think a bit, thanks
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NO no. jaDEB. :wall:
BIL went up lekka today but will go down just as lekka tomorrow. :frustrated:
Leave gold and ALL resources alone now. Start making money FFS. WTF are you doing? :frustrated:
You are loosing your money plus your boet's and and the other family members money. :'(
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NO no. jaDEB. :wall:
BIL went up lekka today but will go down just as lekka tomorrow. :frustrated:
Leave gold and ALL resources alone now. Start making money FFS. WTF are you doing? :frustrated:
You are loosing your money plus your boet's and and the other family members money. :'(
Orca - nothing wrong with BIL I have been buying up small parcels when ever they dip - I think that most shares are pretty volatile and have been ever since May. I have been buying in the R 274 range but if it dips below this level I will buy more - but my ceiling is that I don't want to invest more than 15% in any one counter and it is sitting at 12% currently. I do think that one needs to steer clear of the small miners until labour unrest stabilises - I see Village will now start firing their staff
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Dammit, SGL up 5%. :wall:
Patrick, do I win a Gold bar or Bar1 when I win the investorchallenge ?
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NO no. jaDEB. :wall:
BIL went up lekka today but will go down just as lekka tomorrow. :frustrated:
Leave gold and ALL resources alone now. Start making money FFS. WTF are you doing? :frustrated:
You are loosing your money plus your boet's and and the other family members money. :'(
Orca - nothing wrong with BIL I have been buying up small parcels when ever they dip - I think that most shares are pretty volatile and have been ever since May. I have been buying in the R 274 range but if it dips below this level I will buy more - but my ceiling is that I don't want to invest more than 15% in any one counter and it is sitting at 12% currently. I do think that one needs to steer clear of the small miners until labour unrest stabilises - I see Village will now start firing their staff
Here is BIL. Doing nothing. Trading only. No long term gains.
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Now what would you choose? Indi as an average performer or BIL?
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Is SGL looking good again?
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With the supposed upcoming gold miners strike would you be selling your gold shares now before they are affected by the strike? Do you see the shares going down quite a bit?
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My 2c, I do not have gold shares.
I think the strike is all ready in price.
The shares has had a good run due to Gold going up.
Going from here up/down is anybody guess. Very volatile
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SGL down 8.33 % .... ??? Glencore Xstrata plc (GLNCY) down 3% in where ever .... :frustrated:
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ja nee DEB. The never ending story of Resources and Commodities. That is why they are for short term trading only.
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In accordance with section 122(3)(b) of the Companies Act, No. 71
of 2008 and section 3.83(b) of the JSE Limited Listings
Requirements, shareholders are hereby advised that Sibanye Gold
has received formal notification from Investec Asset Management
Holdings Proprietary Limited (“IAM”) that IAM, in aggregate, has
acquired, on behalf of various non-discretionary clients, an
additional interest in the ordinary shares of the Company.
Accordingly, the total interest in the issued ordinary shares of
Sibanye Gold held by “IAM”, now amounts to 15.0241%.
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So, JaDEB, you think that's a good move by Investec ?
I am not a resources guru, but agree with what P. Theron says in the video. Not Hot.
Sibanye-Hot or not (http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=2867528121001)
8)
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There is a very interesting interview on gold see www.equities.com Read interview with Bud Conrad: What's keeping Gold Prices Down - courtesy the guys at The Market Bar and Grill
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FIRM INTENTION BY SIBANYE GOLD TO MAKE A CASH OFFER TO ACQUIRE THE
ENTIRE ISSUED ORDINARY SHARE CAPITAL OF WITS GOLD AT ZAR 11.55 PER
SHARE AND SIBANYE GOLD CAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENT
:TU:
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???
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Is here, just very busy, trying to finish off. On Holiday from tomorrow. :TU: If OCE stayed where it was (not down 4%) I would have sold it and bought SGL.
Had message from my Brother Darrel, not my other brother Darrel. He said, I must be more riskier with our portfolio. Thus 2014 is going to be make or break.
If I forget, please remind me...
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Aggg damit, now I have see what the bitcoins is about..... ::), where do you buy it. Is it the same as my XP points I get on my battlefield 4?
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Damn, this is abit over my head, my standard 6 lower grade maths does not grasp this.
Bitcoin Basics
Creation of coins
The creation of coins must be limited for the currency to have any value.
New coins are slowly mined into existence by following a mutually agreed-upon set of rules. A user mining bitcoins is running a software program that searches tirelessly for a solution to a very difficult math problem whose difficulty is precisely known. The difficulty is automatically adjusted regularly so that the number of solutions found globally, by everyone, for a given unit of time is constant: an average of 6 per hour. When a solution is found, the user may tell everyone of the existence of this newly found solution, along with other information, packaged together in what is called a "block".
Blocks create 25 new bitcoins at present. This amount, known as the block reward, is an incentive for people to perform the computation work required for generating blocks. Roughly every 4 years, the number of bitcoins that can be "mined" in a block reduces by 50%. Originally the block reward was 50 bitcoins; it halved in November 2012. Any block that is created by a malicious user that does not follow this rule (or any other rules) will be rejected by everyone else. In the end, no more than 21 million bitcoins will ever exist.
Because the block reward will decrease over the long term, miners will some day instead pay for their hardware and electricity costs by collecting transaction fees. The sender of money may voluntarily pay a small transaction fee which will be kept by whoever finds the next block. Paying this fee will encourage miners to include the transaction in a block more quickly.
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Aggg damit, now I have see what the bitcoins is about..... ::), where do you buy it. Is it the same as my XP points I get on my battlefield 4?
There are entertaining debates on the go at the moment around if Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or not.
Here are two opposing points of view:
http://www.garynorth.com/public/11828.cfm
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1rxmk3/my_open_letter_to_peter_schiff_followup_from_the/?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer501c6&utm_medium=twitter
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Arrgggg....missed the SGL boat again.
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Who's the chop that sold his SGL @ R12.00, who's the chop ....., yes you are, jaDEB, you are......
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I almost sold mine of Thursday, got sidetracked and forgot
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Who's the chop that sold his SGL @ R12.00, who's the chop ....., yes you are, jaDEB, you are......
Frikkin hart breaking to read the post above. I am a chop ...... :wall:
Gold now 1322
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Rangold (RNG) have declared a special divi of 225 cents from income reserves, due to recent settlement with PWC, The divi is 50% of the current share price - R4.50.
Interesting, what do you guys think?
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sounds good when is the last day to buy shares to get this offer?
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THE completion of business rescue of Southgold Exploration meant the Burnstone gold mine in Balfour, Mpumalanga, was likely to resuscitate the economy of the area, Peter van den Steen, the mine’s business rescue practitioner, said yesterday.
Burnstone is 100 percent owned by Southgold, which was previously held by JSE- and Toronto-listed Great Basin Gold.
Great Basin Gold filed for business rescue at Southgold in September 2012. The company invested $500 million (R5.4 billion) to develop the mechanised mine, but went into liquidation after running into financial difficulties.
Wits Gold became the winning bidder for Southgold Exploration from the business rescue practitioner.
Sibanye Gold, South Africa’s second-largest gold producer, exercised its option to acquire Southgold and Burnstone last year after buying Wits Gold for $7.4m and taking on $177.3m in bank debt owed. Sibanye has plans to spend R1 billion to develop the ore body.
The business rescue process started 22 months ago and was completed on Monday.
“The completion of the business rescue is huge. The mine was facing liquidation, which could have resulted in a hole in the ground and some scrap metal around it, as all licences and rights lapse when a mine is liquidated. This would have been another Aurora empowerment controversy,” Van den Steen said.
Aurora was named the preferred bidder for Pamodzi’s liquidated Orkney and Grootvlei mines and was blamed for stripping the assets and selling them for scrap metal.
Van den Steen was roped in by Southgold to initiate the business rescue and proposed restructuring of the company’s debt and the sale of Burnstone.
The completion of the business rescue would allow Sibanye to develop Burnstone, James Wellsted, a Sibanye Gold spokesman, said yesterday.
Sibanye had completed a due diligence on the mine and needed to work on understanding the ore body before projections for production were made public. Approval for the plans from the executive committee were also outstanding, he said.
The company planned to use conventional mining methods and would mine only higher grade ore, unlike Great Basin, which planned to mechanise. “We are still developing our production plans and strategy, so any forecasts on issues like jobs and life of mine are pure speculation at this stage.”
Lara Kahn, a partner at Webber Wentzel, which represented Van den Steen, said this was the first and largest business rescue success in South Africa. The transaction was a real “shot in the arm” for business rescue.
She believed that South Africa could see a continued rise in business rescue transactions. “This is a real good news story for South African enterprises as the Southgold business rescue impacts both the mining industry and the financial sector.”
Great Basin Gold shares are currently suspended.
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:(
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:(
Ahhh, good. Ashanti shares are on sale I see
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I invested in gold and I hope that its price will get hike soon.
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Good luck mikehasi, you're braver than me. (or more brave, don't know appropriate lingo here :P)
Gold 10 Year Chart:
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fyi, here are forecast changes for gold. It's an old article but interesting non the less.
http://www.munknee.com/gold-2014-price-forecasts-900-1435-commentary/ (http://www.munknee.com/gold-2014-price-forecasts-900-1435-commentary/)
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Groovy
Their prediction for 2014: "$900/ozt. & nogold-and-currencies higher than $1,435/ozt."
We are sitting on 1236.12 right now.
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So
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Nice - :TU:
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Got a few questions.
1)Where is a good resource to get up to date info and discussions for GOLD,silver and other precious metals?
2)What is the best way to invest in gold/silver/platinum(coins/vaults)?Also,what platform can I use to do so?
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http://www.infomine.com/
http://www.miningmx.com/
I use the above, other websites I use is on my work Comp.
Coins, sorry, cannot help only have few. While u having a look at gold keep an eye on Oil / Sasol.