Author Topic: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016  (Read 4318 times)

Moonraker

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Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« on: January 15, 2016, 04:41:07 pm »
FM Stock picks for 2016

Orca

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2016, 05:04:24 pm »
I see that list includes Brait. Spent some time looking at it yesterday and I must say she looks good. Mostly invested in GB Pounds so not affected by the declining ZAR. A great Rand hedge but have I missed the boat as the ZAR looks set for a correction.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/the-rand-conundrum/
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Moonraker

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2016, 05:26:40 pm »
I see that list includes Brait. Spent some time looking at it yesterday and I must say she looks good. Mostly invested in GB Pounds so not affected by the declining ZAR. A great Rand hedge but have I missed the boat as the ZAR looks set for a correction.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/the-rand-conundrum/

Nah, I wouldn't worry too much about that. Dawie is just speculating. I am in the camp that expects the Rand to weaken over the long term, as it has since I was a youth many, many moons ago. The long term trend is my friend. OK, once commodities recover there will be an uptick, that could take a while. The inflation differentials must also be taken into account. Of more immediate concern is the possible further weakening of the due to Brexit and Scottish referendum jitters and no increase in UK interest rates for longer than expected. Brait has ammo to make another aquisition, offshore naturally, and I would be a buyer on any pull back. (Maybe I am biased because I have them in my portfolio).

Orca

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2016, 06:55:32 pm »
Brait achieved a growth of over 100% in 2015 and did so for the previous 2 years as well. BAT is the major shareholder of New Look, Virgin Active, Premier Foods and Iceland. This makes her immune to market performance as they are unlisted companies and not traded.

The shedding of Steinhoff and their preference shares puts her in a position to do better. A very wise move.
With a PE ratio of 2.2, she is cheap at the moment.
Not only a Rand hedge but a defensive stock as well. A must have in any one's portfolio.

I have been looking for opportunities to sell off my DIVTRX and MTA (70% of portfolio) but they are not behaving as I expected as I want to go 50/50 into BAT and DBXUS.

Look at the much loved Woolies. Great numbers out yesterday but she tanked. This is very concerning to me. BAT was up today again.
 
« Last Edit: January 15, 2016, 07:03:14 pm by Orca »
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Moonraker

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2016, 07:04:58 pm »
Agree Orca  ... P/E is a bit misleading due to all the action last year - don't know how to calculate it. Forward P/E should be much higher.
I give my blessing for you to buy.
   :TU:

Fawkes85

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2016, 01:46:43 pm »
I want to go 50/50 into BAT and DBXUS.

You were very much anti DBX a few months ago. Apart from the obvious Rand plummet, what changed?

Orca

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2016, 03:55:16 pm »
The sudden selloff of emerging markets and the plunging ZAR changed everyone's view in a short space of time.

What still worries me is that FX analysts seem to agree that the ZAR is the most oversold ever and the charts show a correction was due for some weeks.
If commodities pick up, then it is quite possible for the ZAR to gain below 13.00 again. This is very possible and could be in a month or 6 or 12. Nobody can tell when, but it has to happen.

Banks have already shorted the ZAR. Institutional Investors have already left for greener pastures. Will I be doing what I always do? Buy high and sell low.

After my further research last night and this morning, I will rather stay away from DBX and BAT for now.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Patrick

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2016, 09:34:18 pm »
I'm also fighting the urge to give on to fear and convert to dollars (or DBX) right now. Here's probably the best take I've read on the currency: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/the-rand-conundrum/

Mr_Dividend

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2016, 06:57:30 am »
It seems most people are predicting a rough year for equities ahead - not just SA. I have flirted with the idea of selling, then picking them up at a cheaper price later - but I certainly did not pick the top, so it is very unlikely I will pick the bottom to re enter the market.

Same with moving my stocks into dollar/euro based stocks - they have fallen and are expected to also fall some more - so when do you get in? I do wish that I had a bit more in oversea's stocks, but I am glad that I have 25% or so in them already - having a well diversified, large portfolio (that some have laughed at) has it's perks. That's not to saying my main porfolio is doing well - hanging in there would be the best way to describe it...

I also cannot see (for the next year at least) anything that is a threat to dividends - shops are still making money, and rent is still being collected.

Hedge? I am sure this idea has lot's of holes - but here goes.. Sell  around 1/7th of your portfolio - open an account with CFD's if you do not have one, and now short, in the same quantity, everyone of your stocks you think is at risk. In case you think seriously about this, be warned that with shorts you get paid interest but YOU pay the dividends.






Orca

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Re: Financial Mail Stock Picks 2016
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2016, 07:07:21 pm »
I am also at the  :wtf: to do stage.

Thinking back to post 2008, we a few similar situations that we now have and I sold all my CML stocks and only to buy it back at a loss. I have posted this before and will repeat it.
Had I just stayed in, I would have made 1 670% gains. Yes. One thousand six hundred and seventy percent.
Stupid me only made around 400% and still had to pay tax on my sales.
That was a massive R7M loss.
Now I have to watch my pennies.

I will go with Dawie Roodt's advice.
If you dont know, wait;
If you want to move cash overseas, park it locally for a few weeks before making a call;
If the rand goes to R21 or weaker soon, its probably a total overreaction; bring cash back;
If the rand goes to R16.00 or better, the equivalent level achieved a year after the 1985 collapse, take money out;
Anything in between should be determined by normal investment considerations.

The DIVTRX is heavy into the much oversold banking sector and this must correct soon. My consolation.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2016, 07:13:19 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.