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Author Topic: Devastating market crash. When ?  (Read 51948 times)

Bevan

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #45 on: October 08, 2014, 05:44:23 pm »
Dow just bouncing off 200 day moving average. If it holds then we could see a slow and steady recovery from here. If we go back down through this level then man the lifeboats. The lower bollinger on a weekly chart suggests there's at least another 400 to 500 points of downside from here. The monthly chart is quite horrible, suggesting that there could be around 2,000 points wiped off the Dow still. However, I don't think we're there yet.

Any trader should be in cash and sitting on sidelines waiting for confirmation of direction. Investors should still be in the market. This is not a crash (yet).

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Bevan

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2014, 07:29:43 am »
Dow recovered nicely overnight. If we rally again today then I suspect we will move up for next few weeks. But the risk of a major downside move still hangs in the air, at least until weekly momentum has recovered a little.
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yozzi

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #47 on: October 09, 2014, 10:06:34 am »
Quote from: Orca on October 06, 2014, 11:27:57 am
At these levels, I would buy. Not sell.

Orca, are you talking about CML? Would you be buying more at these levels as I know you said the majority of your portfolio is in CML?

You guys have got me worried about this 'crash' talk and what is the general opinion? Is it imminent? Or won't it happen?

I've got a hefty investment in CML, also in the STXIND so hoping my pension pot is not going down the tubes!
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jaDEB

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #48 on: October 09, 2014, 10:38:27 am »
CML - Orca's

You guys have got me worried about this 'crash' talk and what is the general opinion? Is it imminent? Or won't it happen?

They are only talking about it, may or may not happen. If anybody can accurately predict what will happen with Markets, Rand, Gold, shares, he will be making money (lots) shorting & buying, not talking about it.

I've got a hefty investment in CML, also in the STXIND so hoping my pension pot is not going down the tubes

U only have this 2 for your pension? How long to go about?
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Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2014, 03:53:01 pm »
Patrick asked a question that I will answer briefly here.

REITS have fallen quite a bit since June 2013 due to interest hike fears from the FED and thus worldwide, including ZA.
However they seem to have discounted a local repo rate increase of 1%. So far the repo rate has only increased by 0,75%.
REITS are closely correlated to the ZA bond yield, unfairly because they increase their distributions yearly due to rental escalations.
The R186 bond yield has tended lower lately (i.e. their price is higher) @ about 8,15% which is supportive of REITS.
However there is a cautionary. Higher vacancies due to oversupply and the economic woes, plus higher costs due to administered
price increases like electricity that have to be somehow passed onto tenants.
So they are not immune.
The relatively immune ones are those like RES, with large holdings in NEP(I) and ROC, and of course NEP and ROC on their own. They have invested in Eastern Europe and other markets that are hungry for the mall experience. They are also Rand Hedges (or Rant if you are JaDeb).
I am overweight REITS but am nevertheless worried, especially as regards the locally invested ones.
I warned about a crash/severe correction some time ago, but especially last week Friday when Orca wanted to buy, buy, buy.   :-X
« Last Edit: October 10, 2014, 04:27:56 pm by Moonraker »
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Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #50 on: October 10, 2014, 08:59:29 pm »
There was not enough reason for this selloff. Technicals showed Buy.  :'(
My poor CML has been hit hard. The weakning ZAR showed an exit of foreign money out of SA and surely out of Coronation Managed funds and the dip in the markets attenuated this. There goes my pension but come Monday we should see a rally. I hope my broker is correct on this.
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Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #51 on: October 11, 2014, 12:46:16 pm »
More pain coming on Monday, Orca. Blame the situation in Europe. On Friday there was a glimmer of hope that the US markets would show an upwards blip at the close. However no such luck. Market tanked after Standard and Poors cut France's economic outlook from stable to negative.
Your broker is living in cloud cuckoo land :) It will take a long time for the all share index to reach it's July peak of 52242,12 points. Let's just hope that the correction will bottom out soon. (I am not very hopeful).

All share more or less exactly 10% down from July peak of 52242,12

One can but hope ...

Quote
The overall Johannesburg market could follow Assore in a technical upswing, with the 14-day RSI - a momentum indicator tracked by some chartists - showing the main indices are oversold and due for a bump.

Many of the stocks are in oversold territory based on technicals. RSI's and other momentum have broken lower today, in some cases significantly," said Lloyd Priestman, a market analyst at asset manager Caleo Capital.

"We should see some short-term support from these levels as medium to longer term investors look for buying opportunities, given the recent sell off, he said.

(Friday 17:33)



« Last Edit: October 12, 2014, 03:46:25 pm by Moonraker »
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Bevan

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #52 on: October 13, 2014, 07:39:34 am »
Markets are heavily oversold on daily and weekly charts. However, monthly chart is only getting going into downtrend. I expect sideways action for this week. If positive, upward momentum this week is not enough to pull markets out of this steep dive then we should see markets getting ready to sell off again towards end of week.

Normally what happens here is you get what's called a bear flag i.e. price goes sideways (or even dead cat bounces) whilst momentum moves from oversold to overbought. The upwards momentum only serves to exhaust the weak buyers before the stronger shorts regain control. Then when momentum turns down again you get another sharp sell-off as the weak buyers bail out.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 07:42:19 am by Bevan »
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yozzi

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #53 on: October 13, 2014, 09:05:15 am »
So what is it best to do ride out the correction or sell in the hope you salvage a bit of damage limitation?

I'm heavily invested in CML & STX INDI plus A GRAY ORBIS GLOBAL EQUITY FUND & CORONATION INDUSTRIAL FUND



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Bevan

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #54 on: October 13, 2014, 10:15:38 am »
Hi Yozzi, I think the market has probably already taken most of the pain for now. Crashes happen quickly and we've seen a correction now back to around Feb-14 levels. Whilst there is certainly the potential for further downside I expect this won't be as severe as what we've seen already.

Your Orbis fund should have performed quite well over this period as I believe they hedge and thus perform well in a falling market whilst underperforming in a rising market. Coronation are probably the best of the South African fund managers, or "sheep" as some would say. So my advice would be to ride out any further downside. However, best to hold off putting new money into the market just now.
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Moneypenny

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #55 on: October 13, 2014, 10:20:16 am »
If its long term just leave it. 

Remember you pay brokers fees and cost when you buy, and sell, and buyback again and there is always tax to consider as well.  Eventually, its back where it was though it could be weeks or months.   I think you should only take a loss on a share if something really bad happens to an individual company, not a global trend which is fickle most of the time. I always ask myself:  In 10 years time, would I care about today's -2% on the Alsi?  Usually not.

But that being said, I don't think it is over yet. If your personality and circumstances allow, I'd say ride it out but that is obviously up to you.  Good luck on whatever you decide.
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yozzi

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #56 on: October 13, 2014, 10:53:39 am »
Thanks guys for the advice much appreciated!
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yozzi

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #57 on: October 14, 2014, 08:17:23 pm »
Quote from: Bevan on October 13, 2014, 10:15:38 am
Hi Yozzi, I think the market has probably already taken most of the pain for now. Crashes happen quickly and we've seen a correction now back to around Feb-14 levels. Whilst there is certainly the potential for further downside I expect this won't be as severe as what we've seen already.

Your Orbis fund should have performed quite well over this period as I believe they hedge and thus perform well in a falling market whilst underperforming in a rising market. Coronation are probably the best of the South African fund managers, or "sheep" as some would say. So my advice would be to ride out any further downside. However, best to hold off putting new money into the market just now.

Hi Bevan, I bought the Orbis fund in April at R38 and it went up to over R43 but now back where I started and I also bought Coronation in April at R138 it went to R154 and now back at R144 and sliding! My targets are 30%+ R49 and R180 respectively so plenty of work still to do but I'm in there for the long term so prepared to wait!
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Patrick

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #58 on: October 15, 2014, 08:42:26 am »
Have the funds paid dividend? If so your slightly better off than where you started...
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Moneypenny

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2014, 02:19:11 pm »
Interesting opinions from Forbes analyst Jessie Colombo today:

“Total global debt is about to pass $100 trillion ($20 trillion added since 2009).

This is why we are headed for a GLOBAL financial meltdown, and no country will be spared. Get prepared immediately, because life will change forever.”

https://www.facebook.com/thebubblebubble?fref=nf
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