Author Topic: Devastating market crash. When ?  (Read 36342 times)

TheKwok

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2013, 06:00:18 am »
Fair value of the market? One way of valuing the entire market - an average of the Relative Valuations of the Top 40 shares. Currently we seem pretty close to fair value.

 

Article is at http://sites.google.com/site/sasharingshares

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2013, 05:26:29 pm »
A "devastating" market crash can only come out the blue like in 2008 with the Lehman Bros fiasco. We sailed through the Greek saga and Fiscal Cliffs etc. There are no crashes in sight. We had a good year and everything is improving.
This thread should have been called "Market Correction. When ?".
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Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2013, 06:56:00 pm »
A "devastating" market crash can only come out the blue like in 2008 with the Lehman Bros fiasco. We sailed through the Greek saga and Fiscal Cliffs etc. There are no crashes in sight. We had a good year and everything is improving.
This thread should have been called "Market Correction. When ?".
What, I get no karma for starting this thread ?  ;)
Orca, do you have any rand hedge stocks ? You will need them - or buy some US stocks like Berkshire Hathaway. ZA is in for it (or whatever else you want to call it).
Thanks for bumping the thread.  8)

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2013, 07:45:05 pm »
Market Crash.
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Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2013, 07:52:15 pm »
Geez. Was sweating awhile there. Thought I had downloaded a Naked pic of me.
Hey Patrick. How about adding that imodicon or whatever you call it to the others so we can moer each other.
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Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2013, 08:08:09 pm »
Orca, I am waiting for your answer, or are you otherwise occupied ?

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2013, 08:12:01 pm »
Moon. Gimme info. I know nothing about hedge funds or anything for that matter.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2013, 08:22:46 pm »
Moon gone to sleep.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2013, 09:13:46 am »
Moon. Gimme info. I know nothing about hedge funds or anything for that matter.
You know, stocks that provide some protection against a falling Rand because their revenue base is in $, €, ₤, etc. but listed on the JSE.
Stocks like BTI, SAB, NPN. Even BVT now earns under 50% form ZA sources, APN soon around 25%.

(I am thinking of getting some NPN, but not sure due to PE of 45+ The share may have run ahead of itself with a 45% odd increase since the beginning of 2013. What do you think ?).

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2013, 05:52:42 pm »
I would look into buying NPN with some circumspect due to the following.
My brokers calculation showed it as Fully valued 5 weeks ago.
The MACD also shows that she is overbought. I personally only buy when the gold mountain is below zero.
The RSI is also too high.
Now I see that she respects the BB's to a medium degree. Pushes up the top band which is normal. Has no respect for the middle 20 SMA band but bounces off the bottom band.
The channel has widened lately and she looks like she might be headed for the bottom band from the overbought short term area she is in. And that bottom band is waay down.

I personally would wait a while for an improvement in the above technicals.



I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2013, 10:08:22 am »
Orca, thanks, I tend to agree with that.

Patrick

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2013, 11:34:45 am »
My brokers calculation showed it as Fully valued 5 weeks ago.

The same broker that said CML was fully valued at R45 :D

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2013, 12:10:20 pm »
Yes. They also had NPN fully valued 7 months ago. They also had CML fully valued at 2450. That's how stocks work Patrick. Most stocks get fully valued often and still can go up for months until results make them cheap again. Then go through the same cycle again.

That CML fully valued call by my broker was made before the last results and they were correct.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2013, 12:13:30 pm by Orca »
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Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2013, 12:58:59 pm »
For what it's worth, bumping this thread.
Read it or leave it - up to you.

The Grand Superstition

(Source = http://hussmanfunds.com)

Quote
The misattribution of cause and effect in 2009 created the Grand Superstition of our time – the belief that Federal Reserve policy was responsible for ending the financial crisis and sending the stock market higher. By 2010, this narrative was so fully accepted that the Fed’s announcement of further “quantitative easing” was met by equally great enthusiasm by investors.

Complicating matters, the European Central Bank forestalled a currency crisis in Europe through massive purchases of debt from credit-strained member countries. While this action was interpreted as quantitative easing, it actually functioned as a funding operation to weaker countries that was much more akin to a fiscal subsidy from stronger countries like Germany. Still, the fact that it was executed by the central bank and eased the Euro crisis helped to contribute to a perception that central bank purchases of government securities – in and of themselves – are sufficient to support the stock markets indefinitely. Worse, perception creates its own reality in the financial markets, so provided enough investors believe something to be true, the outcome is the same as if it really were, but only for a while.

Don’t misunderstand. Quantitative easing has undoubtedly been the primary driver of stock prices since 2010. But the benefit of having a human intelligence is the ability to evaluate the extent to which there is any mechanistic link between the cause and the effect. If there is not, investors may be resting their confidence on little more than perception and superstition. This is exactly what historical data indicates.

In the case of quantitative easing, there is one variable that is tightly, logically, and consistently linked to Fed actions. We have nearly a century of evidence that the amount of base money created by the Fed (per dollar of GDP) is strikingly related to the level of short-term interest rates. The chart below illustrates this relationship in data since 1929. Yet the same effect is not observed with anything close to the same strength for long-term bond yields. Worse, looking over the full course of history, there is virtually no relationship between the monetary base (level, change, ratio to GDP) and stock returns (regardless of whether one examines concurrent returns, subsequent returns, yields, or estimated prospective market returns).
................................>>>


PS. The default font size when quoting is too small for me, would be nice if the default was 10pt

gcr

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2013, 10:20:58 pm »
I have tagged this info onto this thread merely because I couldn't find a suitable alternative.
I record highs for the ALSI and the Top 40 and mainly the all time highs, but I don't sit on my computer constantly from 9.00 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. but I do spend a fair bit of time every day on my brokers site.
Today the ALSI closed at 46192.91 (this was not the intraday high, I did not see that figure) and the Top 40 41367.23 (also not the intraday or all time high). However what is important to me is checking how the indices  have grown over the last few months.
                                          ALSI                                      Top 40
2/1/2013                           40061.75                               35630.85
11/3/2013                         41011.83                               36515.31
31/5/2013                         42016.45                               37599.86
24/6/2013                         38076                                                                       
16/8/2013                         43042.11                               38623.63
19/9/2013                         44284.57                               39705.32
22/10/2013                       45357.81                               40544.23
6/11/2013                         46192.91                               41367.23

Both index's have grown substantially and one wonders how far it can still go - we are well into the November to February period which seems to be a better performing period for our exchange even though volumes are very thin in December once schools are closed and the trades close down for Christmas. Should be an interesting few months going forward - a correcting of about 5% would to my mind be healthy just before Christmas   
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein