Author Topic: Devastating market crash. When ?  (Read 22234 times)

Moonraker

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Devastating market crash. When ?
« on: April 28, 2013, 03:56:19 pm »
Margin:Debt spiking, economies slowing, overexuberant stock markets.
Folks when will it happen, and what are your loss minimising strategies ?

This statement and the image (Barons) is attributed to:
www.hussmanfunds.com
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130422.htm

Quote
When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips.

Rather worrying ..

« Last Edit: April 28, 2013, 03:58:57 pm by Moonraker »

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2013, 07:16:15 pm »
Here we go once again. Over the years I have seen these negative posts and charts that show an imminent Double Dip about to happen and this made me sell all and stay in cash. I am now so sorry that I did that as nothing ever happened. Looking back now I could have made at least R400K more if I had not listened to the BAD news and charts. Always climbed back in at a loss.
They might be right this time but I have not seen any fundamentals to compliment the charts for the BIG RED TIDE.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Moneypenny

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2013, 08:05:54 pm »
The short answer to a complicated question: 

For me it all depends on two monetary policy decisions this week.  First up, Wednesday 1 May @ 20:0 in the US with the FOMC statement (and the rest of the world on a public holiday so by the way ::)) and the very next day @14:30 the ECB with their policy decision. If markets don’t get some sort of a fix, it will get very ugly very quickly. I believe the downturn has already started after mid March highs and no fix will accelerate decline, thus a tussle between expectation vs. reality – expectation being stimulus and up, reality being well, reality and whatever that may be.

Exciting times, going to be a make or break week and I for one, looking forward to it. ;)

As always, only one opinion - make up your own mind.
 
Veni, vidi, vici

Goliath

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2013, 12:47:46 pm »
If it happens, I'll have a strong drink and double down! :)

Moneypenny

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2013, 01:50:45 pm »
so, what did I miss?  :D
Veni, vidi, vici

Goliath

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2013, 02:37:42 pm »
Nothing yet!  ;D

But as Orca said, I'm sticking to my guns.. if the market crashes = I'll triple up or more! Think they said it last year as well that it going to crash etc etc, most of the companies made excellent growth the past 12 month's and hopefully it'll keep doing it for a while more!

gcr

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2013, 03:15:15 pm »
The last time that the ALSI was at this level 38895 was on or about 12/12/2012 (wasn't that the great day of reckoning) and then it progressively moved up to 41 047.72 on 14/03/2013 - so in its own right the ALSI has shown quite a large correction. Also there have been many commentators/analysts who have said we are due a correction. I have always worked on the principle that I will sell only when my gardener starts talking about shares and which shares to buy - then I know we are in to serious issues - he hasn't started talking to me yet so I will stay invested. If the market does pull back then this will sort out the people who are in it for greed and speculation - because if you have a long term portfolio you should have more than a number of opportunities to sell a portion of your longer term portfolio and still make a handsome profit and then buy in once the market starts turning up. 
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2013, 03:37:31 pm »
Ahem... Bump  :-[

gcr

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2013, 05:05:08 pm »
Though the market has dropped quite a bit this week it is still at 39,070.56 (ALSI) so need for panic just yet - see DOW has made a small recovery so far today :TU:
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Orca

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2013, 05:46:53 pm »
I normally don't give views because I don't have any but I give views that I read and listen to from financial analysts.
No crash expected. Ben's speech yesterday about the QE to "ease" off at year end or early next year if economics allow spooked investors. This will not last as they will very soon realize that the "easing off" will actually only happen when the economy starts to recover.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Bluebull2007

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2013, 03:30:34 am »
Orca: What else is Bernanke going to say? They have to stop printing $85 billion dollars/month at some stage otherwise the market will end up doing a run. Either way its going to be negative on the market. The signal they sent and then retracted as panic selling began is a sign how bad things really are. How many people out there really believe that the economy is actually improving?

Of course the economy (read markets) are improving! - the cadaver still has the life support system (QE) plugged in.  :LHST:

Every time there is a sign of the QE being reduced markets go all bearish. Problem is BoJ, Eurozone banks, and BoE are all doing QE...So for now its a bit like the Mandela story...

Moneypenny

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2013, 09:02:29 am »
Latest time-frame I've heard was mid 2014.
Veni, vidi, vici

Patrick

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2013, 10:47:12 am »
The big question is how devastating will devastating be. As someone who one day plans to live of dividends, it's not something I'm worried about. In fact I think it might suit me.

Sure the total value of my portfolio will be down, but as long as the companies are still profitable, my total dividends will still be the same. It will mean that all the shares will be "going on sale". So for me that will mean being able to get more shares at a lower price. If I have cash on hand then, perfect, otherwise I'll think of pulling from my access bond.

Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2013, 03:43:01 pm »
Rock-A-Bye Baby
(from www.hussmanfunds.com)

Quote
Outside of Bernanke’s counterfactual and economically illiterate “wealth effect” argument, even the members of the Federal Reserve have no idea what transmission mechanism would link further increases in the monetary base to any increase in economic activity or employment. There are already trillions of dollars of idle reserves in the banking system. Why keep pushing on a string when pushing it relieves no constraint that’s binding? You just have more string to tangle, trip on, and reel in later.

In short, QE benefits stocks primarily because investors have come to believe that QE benefits stocks – a belief that is ultimately likely to be added to the long list of extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. Investing based on expectations of more QE is not an act of analysis or a response to investment merit, but is instead an act of blind faith that borders on superstition.

Moonraker

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Re: Devastating market crash. When ?
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2013, 04:03:37 pm »

10 Reasons Why Sharknado Is Coming To The Global Economy

Quote
In the United States, the mainstream media is breathlessly proclaiming that the U.S. economy is in great shape because job growth is "accelerating" (even though we actually lost 240,000 full-time jobs last month) and because the U.S. stock market set new all-time highs this week.  The mainstream media seems to be absolutely oblivious to all of the financial storm clouds that are gathering on the horizon.  The conditions for a "perfect storm" are rapidly developing, and by the time this is all over we may be wishing that flying sharks were all that we had to deal with.

Yeah, it seems those great non-farm payroll figures recently released are mainly due to temp and part time jobs - like burger-flipping by teenagers ..

(Sorry, don't want to scare anyone, just higlighting a different perspective...)