The JSE and finance forum for South Africa
General Category => Shares => Topic started by: Delusionsofgrandeur on November 14, 2013, 01:44:46 pm
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I know nothing about investing,but thanks to the generous folk on this forum,I have learned a little.
I have selected some stocks based on favorites from some people on this forum.You will probably know who based on my shares.
My goal is overall maximum and safe growth with more than an aggressive edge long term or at least 3 years.
I am not opposed to taking risks,but since I know nothing,I would only do it with the advice and reasoning of forum members.
I need the lowest expenses on all shares/indexes,relatively Low P.E ratios.
I am thinking of dividing my shares as follows:
SAtrix Indi 50%
OMN 30%
PNC 10%
MTA 10%
I am really sucking these figures out of my thumb.
I honestly want to just invest in these and continue to buy more of these shares in the future.I will look at their performance now and then but for the large part I don't want to be too involved with them due to my lack of knowledge.
This does not mean that I wont be watching them,since I will be trying to learn about investing.
Anyways,I'm looking to get in on the bottom like everyone else.
Please give me alternative winner's.Also please show me the percentage of each share I have listed you would invest in.Thanks a ton.
Also,if you have any tips about buying in dips that would be great since I will be chucking most of my money into these.
Thanks guys!
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1stly .....jaDEB get a frikkin life .... :frustrated:
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OMN had a nice run, PE 15.6 - Looks good
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PNC - PE 11 Also had a good run. Do not particular like this 1.
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MTA - PE 12, Orca will handle this 1.
Go on, be risky. Add a small % of Gold & commodity shares O:-)
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Orca will also abbreviate on CML, when to add it :TU:
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Comparison chart.
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Where's the CML :D
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Looking at that comparison chart above, PNC performed the best overall. Had the ZAR not weakened, she would be over 400%. She will procede as soon as R10 to the $ becomes the new normal and her new acquisition adds to her profits.
STXIND is a stable 30 percenter and with OMN added to it for that extra boost is all I need in my retirement portfolio.
MTA made a massive acquisition that will add plenty of alpha from December. This will be a 140% + pa stock for some years to come. Once the loan for the new plant is paid off though. Stock of the year for 2015.
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Where's the CML :D
Naah. CML has become too dicy. Made her good run for years and perhaps will continue. Who knows?
Today I deposited the proceeds from the sale of my business into my broker account and will be buying OML.
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Why did they both tank and recover at same time?
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Looking at that comparison chart above, PNC performed the best overall. Had the ZAR not weakened, she would be over 400%. She will procede as soon as R10 to the $ becomes the new normal and her new acquisition adds to her profits.
STXIND is a stable 30 percenter and with OMN added to it for that extra boost is all I need in my retirement portfolio.
MTA made a massive acquisition that will add plenty of alpha from December. This will be a 140% + pa stock for some years to come. Once the loan for the new plant is paid off though. Stock of the year for 2015.
I hear you loud and clear,safe,consistent,comfortable,certain gains with OMN and INDI.But with that being said,if you were in my shoes,and not in retirement,would you dabble in PNC and MTA?
From what you said Im talking maby 10% of my portfolio for MTA-5% and PNC-5%,if its worth the trouble?
Im thinking higher for MTA though,but maby I am being greedy.
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Why did they both tank and recover at same time?
Results came out the same month.
PNC's results was lower than the previous year and selloff was overdone as Datatec profits were not yet included.
MTA's results was also lower and she tanked until the SENS of the major acquisition came out and she shot back up.
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Thanks Orca
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Delusion. I don't know how old you are. If you have 15 to 20 years left to retirement then cut out the Indi or halve it.
I went on early retirement last week and have no Indi in my portfolio as of yet. This is only due to the fact that I have not reached my 4% thing yet. So while I'm in good mental health, I will go for that 4%. Once that is reached or I start acting funny, I will sell all and buy into the Indi and perhaps some OML for alpha. Like in 70%/30%.
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Wowee,a curveball,I didnt expect that ,halve the indi.
I am 31 now.How would you adjust my portfolio if you were in my shoes,whilst trying to only pay CGT tax?
I want to be conservative with the bulk of my money and don't mind selling every 3 years if need be.
Thanks allot,I appreciate everyone's responses.
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Halve the Indi and add to OMN. There is no stopping these 2 for conservative, steady growth. The Indi for 30% growth and OMN for 70%.
Keep the other 2 at 10% each and you have a portfolio of 2 good steady growth stocks with 2 for alpha.
I don't like giving advice but you are still young so it is a start for you to learn your own stock picking methods. No doubt I will get flack by some members. After all, I'm not near winning the competition.
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Those look like some nice steady growing stocks. I like the look of those charts. Definitley going on my watchlist
Out of interest sake how much in total all your looking at throwing at the market and will you continue to add to your positions on a monthly basis?
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Yes,I am far from retirement and I would like my money to work for me.I like that ratio Orca.It seems conservative,but it still maximise's profit.
So I think it might be better to leave out the INDI as you initially suggested,since its probably better for longer term or retirement
.I can always sell these at some point and Buy INDI when the INDI corrects. I want to keep at least the OMN for longer than 3 years.
OMN 70%
PNC 15%
MTA 15%
Would it behoove me to Create another account for OMN,so that can be considered Investing?
Then keep PNC and MTA in a seperate account.I will use this account for investing,but if anything goes wrong with the a share I can still sell them at different times ,then it can be considered a trading account.Do I make sense?
Also,can shares later be transferred from one account to another,from my trading to investment account perhaps?
Nios,I am going to throw all disposable income into it except maby a few bucks ,which is not allot.Just under R300 000.
So here is where I am hazy,I am not too sure if its a good or bad thing to add to those shares,especially if I have to sell within 3 years,which I am not expecting to do for the OMN.
BUt as I understand it,each share has a date,and if I use the weighted average method I can just average the value of my profit.
So ,to answer the question I would like to add to OMN maby every few months or at dips since it appears to be stable.Or,I will invest in other stocks once I become educated and I can read the market.
"I went on early retirement last week and have no Indi in my portfolio as of yet. This is only due to the fact that I have not reached my 4% thing yet. So while I'm in good mental health, I will go for that 4%. Once that is reached or I start acting funny, I will sell all and buy into the Indi and perhaps some OML for alpha. Like in 70%/30%."
Orca,what is this 4% thingy you refer to?
I would probably go higher for PNC and shave some off OMN but I dont know much about these stocks yet.
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Your total investments times 4% divide by 12. If you can live on this monthly amount, you will be ok and can live out any market corrections. Some say as high as 5 or 6% will do.
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To put my money where my mouth is. Just bought OMN at 20900.
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Not that I am saying you should not, as I have the 1 share portfolio. Do u not think it is risky with such a high % of OMN. Like I said, that is what I am doing, just asking a question that you financial advisor will ask you.
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Your total investments times 4% divide by 12. If you can live on this monthly amount, you will be ok and can live out any market corrections. Some say as high as 5 or 6% will do.
I don't understand this formula.Total value of investment times 4%?
What is the name of it so I can google it?Not that I am saying you should not, as I have the 1 share portfolio. Do u not think it is risky with such a high % of OMN. Like I said, that is what I am doing, just asking a question that you financial advisor will ask you.
Past success is not an indicator of future success,is probably something a Financial advisor would say.
But if I can even hold onto OMN for a year it would still be worth it,what I know is that I probably won't directly lose any money on it.Seems like a safe bet for the returns you will recieve,that's just the way I see it.
I will skip diversification if there is a clear winner among the pack,in terms of performance.
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Patrick gave us that percentage. It could be in his blog.
R5 000 000.00 x 4% = R200 000.00
Divide by 12 months is R16 666.66 pm.
R4 000 000.00 @ 5% will give you the same so I will go with the 5% one. Some financial experts quote it at 4% and some at 5%. I can easily live on R16 670.00 pm as it will be taxed at CGT.
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In Patrick's blog. Called SafeMax.
http://www.investorchallenge.co.za/the-only-way-to-get-rich/#more-158
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So to get to your magic retirement number you need to multiply your total annual living costs by 25.
In Orcas case its 4bar. Ensure its invested in a good steady basket of shares/tracker fund and only draw down 4% annually to pay yourself your annual salary.
You will also receive an increase every year as the fund grows yet continue only drawing down 4%.
Go see the results with Patricks compounding calculator. Very interesting.
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Yeah,that's a cool blog and an interesting formula.
Question,is the PE ratios for FGL and OML too high for their industries to buy in your opinion?If I need to diversify maby it could be with these guys,but I am not aware if I am too late.What about MR. PRice ad a share?Cannot find a topic for FGL so I ask here.
I don't like giving advice but you are still young so it is a start for you to learn your own stock picking methods. No doubt I will get flack by some members. After all, I'm not near winning the competition.
I don't mind,you are one of the few people actually giving me solid advice,and your past predictions and research on stocks have been successful.I wish those other folks would chime in too with their winners.I take all advice and go with the common denominator plus my own google research plus 10% hunch.
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OMN has a very normal PE ratio. All stocks with good growth have their PE ratios go higher and higher only to drop when the results are published. A PE of 12 is great for long term, but so is 20. Some stocks thrive at 300.
I, personally do not do stocks higher than 20. But that is just me because I am conservitive.
Here is a chart for you to decide which of these 2 are the better performers. I hope you pick the correct one.
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Yeah,that's a cool blog and an interesting formula.
Question,is the PE ratios for FGL and OML too high for their industries to buy in your opinion?If I need to diversify maby it could be with these guys,but I am not aware if I am too late.What about MR. PRice ad a share?Cannot find a topic for FGL so I ask here.
I don't like giving advice but you are still young so it is a start for you to learn your own stock picking methods. No doubt I will get flack by some members. After all, I'm not near winning the competition.
I don't mind,you are one of the few people actually giving me solid advice,and your past predictions and research on stocks have been successful.I wish those other folks would chime in too with their winners.I take all advice and go with the common denominator plus my own google research plus 10% hunch.
I took a punt on FGL to get my portfolio performance up. By no means would I suggest throwing all your funds at it. I wouldn't. I would go with OMN instead and seriously looking at it now for my real portfolio. I do like Orcas suggestions and am looking at investing aggressively for the next 3-5 years in OMN, STXIND, MTA, PNC(tech stocks make me nervous though)
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Leave PNC out then. The ZAR depreciation worries me a bit.
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So while I'm in good mental health, I will go for that 4%. Once that is reached or I start acting funny, I will sell all and buy into the Indi and perhaps some OML for alpha. Like in 70%/30%.
OML's P.E ratio is not listed(cant see it),but is it not more than 20?Is this a safe long term reliable stocke in your view similar to OMN?
Leave PNC out then. The ZAR depreciation worries me a bit.
Ok,maby Ill drop it to 10 or 5%.If the rand weakewns steadily will PNC actually lose money steadily,since they import?I don't see the rand recovering anytime soon.I think it's just going to weaken.Thats the past performance of it if I am not mistaken.
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Oops. Sorry. OML was supposed to be OMN.
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Hi Guys
Its interesting reading this thread especially for a novice investor. Its great to get input from people with more experience than me. I, like delusions, have learned from people on these types of forums. Ive still got a long way to go but the input and discussion has been hugely valuable. Thanks!
On that note...there is a lot of positive intrest in OMN. Why do you guys like it so much? What is it about the company that you believe will deliver a stellar performance going forward, considering it has already run quite a bit this year?
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Hi Guys
Its interesting reading this thread especially for a novice investor. Its great to get input from people with more experience than me. I, like delusions, have learned from people on these types of forums. Ive still got a long way to go but the input and discussion has been hugely valuable. Thanks!
On that note...there is a lot of positive intrest in OMN. Why do you guys like it so much? What is it about the company that you believe will deliver a stellar performance going forward, considering it has already run quite a bit this year?
No Mich. It is only me that likes OMN. It has not only run quite a bit this year, It has run quite a bit for many years. So what will stop it for running many more years? Not all stocks are cyclical. The PE keeps dropping back to normal after results reports. Some will say that it will peak but it is not in that category. You just have to follow the the stock and read it's SENS.
Just answer this. Would you invest in a stock that has a chart looking like a dogs back leg or a smooth uptrending, non volatile, long term trending chart?
I would go for time/trend momentum stocks rather than cyclical stocks. That is just me and my method. You do what you think is good for you and decide on your own method. Please do not follow mine. You might just loose your money.
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Hi Orca. I agree, its not just you that likes OMN. It seems to be a popular share in general. Im really just trying to understand why people are interested in it. Im definitely not criticizing the interest, Im merely trying to understand it and work out whether or not to add it to my portfolio.
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Are you guys selling off your shares at the moment or are you sitting tight?
Im 60% Omnia and 40% Metair.I was thinking of selling Omnia at abit of a loss,and adding more to Metair.
Would now be a good time to do it?What are your reasons?
My time line is 1-3 years.Only 1 month into investing.
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Sitting tight, but keepin a eye on some other shares that has dropped more than my GLN.
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I'm trying to free up more cash so I can buy more. Looks like it'll take another 3 weeks till I can though.