Author Topic: CML  (Read 285529 times)

Mr_Dividend

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Re: CML
« Reply #255 on: April 29, 2015, 09:42:25 am »
Luckily only had 10% CML in my main account - had about 70% in my little account though, so basically placed a R40K bet  :frustrated:

Lesson 275 on how not to invest - completed

 ::)

Ouch Orca - maybe give it a day or two - as you say, probably a bit oversold at the moment - PE was around 17, so not expensive. I am hoping they keep the dividend the same. BTW have been looking into camper vans - around 10,000 pounds gets you a nice 2 berth with toilet. Just playing with the idea of a cheap flat over here and a camper van there for 6mnths/6mnths.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #256 on: April 29, 2015, 09:58:55 am »
With CML, I can't afford rent any more so looking at camper vans myself. I had 78% in CML and I planned to sell last Friday. Stoopid me.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Mr_Dividend

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Re: CML
« Reply #257 on: April 29, 2015, 10:18:04 am »
Things could be worse - you could be looking at tents...  ;)

Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #258 on: April 29, 2015, 10:26:19 am »
I'm just under 7% CML, bought before I got onto my "only but index funds" mantra. But considering my average cost is around R50, and all the big divvies we've been paid from CML I'm not too upset. That said, I really hope they manage to pull in a big chunk of funds going forward with the tax free accounts. Not sure how their products in that category look though.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #259 on: April 29, 2015, 11:36:09 am »
I could have bought a brand new campervan with what I lost. Not too bad as I bought at 27.40.
Seems to have bottomed out for today at least but I would think bargain hunters might throw a party now. Still not a bad result so all this is by far overdone. 1'st half year 2014 was 67% HEPS.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #260 on: April 30, 2015, 08:34:09 pm »
I feel sorry for PIC members that lost so much with ABIL. To make matters worse, they chucked money at CML to the tune of 10% at R100 ps after that ABIL loss.  :'(
Then Investec came on board at about the same time and bought a hefty lot of CML shares.

So who is wise? I just don't know any more. We have all heard of "clever and stupid" money have we not?

To get to my point. I thought Clever Money was staying out of CML causing it to flatline for months due to this fact:
The Clever Money realised that the HEPS of 67% achieved for the last period was unachievable for this period so they stayed out causing the stagnation. Only the Stupid Money was entering CML.

Now what is the future prospects? Stagnate with Stupid Money until the next set of results that has to beat 100%+ HEPS of the same period. No chance. So even a worse comparison by far. Another correction looming.

Don't take this as Advice as I have been a moron at investing lately and surely PIC and Investec sees value in CML so a part of me still has some faith in her future. Albeit a small part.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2015, 08:38:17 pm by Orca »
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Mr_Dividend

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Re: CML
« Reply #261 on: April 30, 2015, 09:02:05 pm »
You haven't had a great year - BUT you did very well before that. Personally, you should be looking at your returns over a 5 year period - one year is a bit short. But as you said, maybe switching to ETF's and still get equity growth but spreading the risk, might be the way to go. Just looking at the investor challenge - quite easy to see most ETF's out perform individual picks - although most are not really portfolios.

Are you going to wait for results and then the dividend - or start a gradual sell off now?

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #262 on: April 30, 2015, 10:03:38 pm »
A very difficult decision as I want the divie. I can live with another 8% down but that will cancel the divie by far.
Will the Stupid Money drive her up? Not sure but will wait a while but not too concerned as I quad druppled my initial investment with her.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

letlhogonolo

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Re: CML
« Reply #263 on: April 30, 2015, 11:01:49 pm »
I think Mr Dividend is right. I admit I'm just starting out with this investment stuff but I don't think its fair to expect CML to shoot out the lights every year. Maybe its cooling off for a year or two. Or maybe its entered a phase where it will only grow by about 10 to 15 percent a year.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #264 on: May 01, 2015, 02:12:56 pm »
CML SENS 28/4 "As detailed in our prior communications, Coronation is a cyclical business with a revenue stream that is highly geared to both the returns of the market and the level of out performance that it generates in the funds it manages on behalf of its clients. The reduced DHEPS is largely attributable to a decline in the abnormally high level of performance fees generated in the prior comparative six-month period"

Orca if the fund holders pay the fees why are the shareholders affected by this?


Not sure what you actually mean qriffin. Fund holders pay performance fees and this is Coronation's Earnings. Poor fund performance = Poor earnings.

Second half year results are historically poorer than the first due to end of year Management Bonuses that add up to millions.
Thankfully, last year they paid these bonuses with shares held in their trust fund and not in cash equivalent that affects the earnings.
The previous year, they were paid in cash and this reflected badly on earnings causing a correction. Perhaps this time they were paid in cash again.

I will do some research on previous results to see if I can pick up something.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #265 on: May 01, 2015, 05:37:47 pm »
I'll see what I can find about Coronation's UT's performance. Pity Equinox/PSG has removed the performance comparison thingy.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Mr_Dividend

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Re: CML
« Reply #266 on: May 01, 2015, 08:37:55 pm »
What I can't understand is that with the worlds stock markets breaking previous records, like the Nikkei for example hitting the 20 000 for the first time in 15 years CML should be producing amazing results. Any insight that you could provide would be awesome

Ja - you would think! I think though, they need to out perform the market to get the extra management fees - and that's where they are falling down. Have I got that correct Orca?

gcr

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Re: CML
« Reply #267 on: May 01, 2015, 09:53:24 pm »
Coronation is a solid company and is well run - I have an order on to purchase more of their shares but it is just not dropping to my price of R 89.00 - wish I could get more at my original purchase price of R 24.98 but suppose will have to wait for cow's to fly f 8)irst
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #268 on: May 02, 2015, 11:11:02 am »
They have global UT's but I cannot tell you what percentage of their UT's are in foreign assets.

If she breaks the support at 90 then I will start worrying. A 2 consecutive day under 90 should give her a target to head for the next support at 80.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Orca

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Re: CML
« Reply #269 on: May 04, 2015, 03:03:13 pm »
I had to remove all my charts and calculations as they are incorrect. They showed First Half year Preliminary results against the previous year's First Half. That is correct but then showed the Second Half against the Second Half of the previous year. That is incorrect as it should be Full Year against the previous Full Year.

So back to the drawing board.
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.