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Author Topic: CML  (Read 284935 times)

JhbMaverick

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CML
« on: April 18, 2013, 04:19:13 pm »
It just seems unstoppable. Anyone brave enough to make predictions?
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jaDEB

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Re: CML
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2013, 04:35:50 pm »
I have 3 portfolio's. 1 that belongs to me and 2 other people is 100% CML. The graph / price does look awesome, "other site" has thread indicating they think it will go R75 by year end. But as far as I know, only Chuck Norris in unstoppable.

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jaDEB

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Naude

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Re: CML
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2013, 08:34:14 pm »
I tested the competition by buying 100% CML. Looks who's on top!
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jaDEB

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Re: CML
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2013, 05:17:32 pm »
I agree 100%, but also note that Bil did hit R300 - in Feb and I bought today at R253. Thus just hanging there while we have a recovery, then I will get back into CML, thus please keep an eye on it during my absence.

 
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jaDEB

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Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2013, 04:12:16 pm »
You do know the stock well. I'm watching it closely as I have a small chunk of change due in mid-july. CML is one of the shares I'd consider. The other two, as in my challenge profile are SAB and Aspen. I may just split it evenly between the 3 rather than the 50% CML 25% the others as I did with this months challenge allocation.

My thinking is, even if CML is fully valued, I doubt it'll be a loser over a 3 year period.
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smiley

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Re: CML
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2013, 04:40:09 pm »
Quote from: Patrick on April 23, 2013, 04:12:16 pm
You do know the stock well. I'm watching it closely as I have a small chunk of change due in mid-july. CML is one of the shares I'd consider. The other two, as in my challenge profile are SAB and Aspen. I may just split it evenly between the 3 rather than the 50% CML 25% the others as I did with this months challenge allocation.

My thinking is, even if CML is fully valued, I doubt it'll be a loser over a 3 year period.

If you looking at a three year period i would not buy CML as it sits on a very high PE and would need excellent results to maintain this PE.

We are due for a bull market but the question is when  ::) 1 year, 2 or 3?
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Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2013, 06:44:47 pm »
I agree with Orca. Using a 10 month SMA, there has never been a sell 'signal'.
PE ratios are not to be relied on and some of my shares have been on high PE's for years, obviously for a reason.
The historic PE's  (with CML for example), seem to always reduce after results, more or less in line with the estimated forward PE's, only to increase again in anticipation of continued good performance, which with CML is almost a given.

A somewhat more useful method of valuation is the Shiller PE method (CAPE). http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

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Krypt0n1te

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Re: CML
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2013, 07:32:53 pm »
Quote from: smiley on April 23, 2013, 04:40:09 pm

If you looking at a three year period i would not buy CML as it sits on a very high PE and would need excellent results to maintain this PE.

We are due for a bull market but the question is when  ::) 1 year, 2 or 3?

I do agree with you on your first statement, CML will really need to give steller results for quite some time to justify this price, I'm not saying it's gonna crash, nor am I selling my holding.
Simply by looking at the graph this thing is trading at a 35% premium to its 200SMA!

With your latter comment regarding the due Bull Market I assume you meant we are due for a correction? (which did start already)
« Last Edit: April 23, 2013, 07:37:09 pm by Krypt0n1te »
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Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2013, 08:22:26 pm »
Quote from: Krypt0n1te on April 23, 2013, 07:32:53 pm


I do agree with you on your first statement, CML will really need to give steller results for quite some time to justify this price, I'm not saying it's gonna crash, nor am I selling my holding.
Simply by looking at the graph this thing is trading at a 35% premium to its 200SMA!
That's why it's still a buy, not talking about short term movements.
 BUY RULE
 Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA.
 SELL RULE
 Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA

Quote from: Krypt0n1te on April 23, 2013, 07:32:53 pm
With your latter comment regarding the due Bull Market I assume you meant we are due for a correction? (which did start already)
We are still in a Bull market, just had a correction. When we get the Big Enchilada, nobody knows.
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Naude

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Re: CML
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2013, 09:12:27 pm »
Many shares have shown great growth even though the P/E is high. Your other choice SAB is one of them. The other point in CMLs favour is the good dividend.
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JhbMaverick

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Re: CML
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2013, 04:28:08 pm »
Another good day for CML. Any idea what changed in November 2012? The trajectory suddenly steepened up then and hasn't slowed much since.
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jaDEB

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Re: CML
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2013, 04:31:39 pm »
I believed Orca started his CML thread on the other site about November 2012..... ;D ;D ;)
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jaDEB

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jaDEB

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Re: CML
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2013, 06:31:39 pm »
I know, Orca, just kiddin with you as usual. And I hope CML keeps doing what it is doing, just so you can make some nice moola.... ;D
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jaDEB

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Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2013, 12:26:24 pm »
5350 up 1.90%. Why oh why do I hold such a small amount! I imagine the buyers are expecting really good result to justify that price...

« Last Edit: April 26, 2013, 12:30:51 pm by Patrick »
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jaDEB

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Re: CML
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2013, 12:51:43 pm »
they just brought out a trading statement
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jaDEB

If it scares you, it's a sign you need to do it
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