Author Topic: CML  (Read 286190 times)

yozzi

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Re: CML
« Reply #90 on: July 23, 2013, 11:09:42 am »
I would not do that Yozzi. Will give you some figures out my head. Coronation's revenue is highly geared to the markets performance and the market has not been doing too well lately. This is the last quarter before the years final results and I don't see the volatility diminishing.
This quarter's AUM increased less than normal adding to the above problem. This was perhaps due to the closure of new institutional investments and the exchange rate.

March 2012- 6M results. HEPS up by 6%.
Sept 2012- 1Y results. HEPS up 12%. AUM up 37% compared to 35% for 2011 and 28% for 2010.
These were mediocre results and less than expected causing a first ever correction in CML although the increase in AUM was high.

March 2013- 6M results. HEPS up by 72%. This caused a surge in CML's price. Up from its average of 65%pa to 130%pa.
September 2013- 1Y results. The AUM already up in June by 28% and projected to 34% by end September. Due to the market I cannot forsee an increase of more than 5% in HEPS taking last years figures and market performance into account.

So going long on CML with borrowed money will not be wise.

Thanks Orca point taken do you think that today's CML price of just under R65 is about as low as it will go now?

Moneypenny

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Re: CML
« Reply #91 on: July 23, 2013, 05:39:52 pm »
 :TU:

tgg78703

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Re: CML
« Reply #92 on: July 24, 2013, 07:41:00 pm »
The market tanked just before 4, cml did well to hold its ground

MarketMaker

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Re: CML
« Reply #93 on: July 26, 2013, 11:45:17 pm »
No apology from DJ  :frustrated:

What you must do now DJ, is to do a covert deletion of your post. Get up at midnight, put dark glasses on, lift up your coat collars and sneak to your computer and delete that post. We won't notice.

The post still stands as is. Don't let your paranoia get the better of you.

Carry on talking shit to yourself here. There was a time when I would have been happy to help out in terms of technical analysis but you make it incredibly difficult to in any way want to contribute. Your steadfast belief in SMAs is ridiculous. They are not leading indicators in any way whatsoever, which is what you keep inferring, and you continue to advise people on the basis of SMAs relating to future trading ranges. This is basic stuff - SMAs are not leading indicators at all - they are the very opposite. If you wanted leading indicators you'd use a combination of EMAs and pricing curves, but even this method doesn't factor in much volatility, which is why if you really, really wanted to use a moving average as a leading indicator, you'd adjust your charting options to allow for differential coupling with a price slope. And you wouldn't be using an SMA. The reason that you continually see CML trade within the SMA, and the reason you continue to convince yourself that it is a leading indicator, is because it is in fact a lagging indicator, and will therefore always reflect the appropriate SMA range in terms of price. This is, once again, the mistake that amateurs make when attempting to read technical analysis. The issue here is that you punt your version of nonsense as gospel which at the end of the day is nonsense.

Allow me to reiterate that SMAs are not leading indicators and you can in no way make swing trading predictions (which is what you're doing) on SMAs alone. Especially to the degree that you're going at it.

I don't want a fight here. All I'd like is for you to try a little but of humility for a change and perhaps learn something out of this.

You also discuss future trading ranges, however you'd be looking at one of the oscillators to confirm, not SMA. You might also use a combination of fibonacci analysis as well, but these are very high risk methods. All you're doing is reading into technicals what you admittedly (on another forum) do not know.

I don't think that it's fair that you continue trying to teach others about technical analysis. If you are honest with yourself, you know that you have never ventured into the details thereof and are not in a position to be trying to help others. If you'd like to learn, you might want to start with the basics of lagging indicators and what purpose they serve, as they do not serve to predict future price movements in terms of the trading periods you're referring to.

I'm rarely on here to reply, but that doesn't miraculously make you correct...
« Last Edit: July 26, 2013, 11:50:05 pm by MarketMaker »

AVM

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Re: CML
« Reply #94 on: August 02, 2013, 11:24:29 am »
Happy holder since the late R30's  ;D

tgg78703

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Re: CML
« Reply #95 on: August 02, 2013, 07:26:58 pm »
I have lost all confidence in investec >:D

I think that you mentioned that you dont expect cml to do as well this year, regarding investment bonuses.

Suppose it is sour grapes on my part because I am not in on this great performance.

But I have been bitten in the past by investing in companies that have no actual assets and only grow on investor sentiment and profits.

I am a conservative idiot :)


Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #96 on: August 02, 2013, 08:14:43 pm »


But I have been bitten in the past by investing in companies that have no actual assets and only grow on investor sentiment and profits.

I am a conservative idiot :)
That's what my wife said when I wanted to buy NPN; (I listened).  ;)


tgg78703

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Re: CML
« Reply #97 on: August 02, 2013, 11:02:44 pm »
listened to who?

How many did you buy?

Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #98 on: August 03, 2013, 10:44:30 am »
listened to who?
Wife, as stated.
How many did you buy?
Zero
The price level of NPN seems over exuberant with a PE of about 47. Earnings are not keeping up with the share price.
Also a fair chunk of earnings increases are purely due to the weakening of the Rand.
At a PE of 30/35 I would possibly consider, if wife agrees.  8)

Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #99 on: August 13, 2013, 10:59:01 am »
Release Date: 13/08/2013 10:30:00      Code(s): CML        Trading Statement for the financial year ended 30 September 2013

Coronation Fund Managers Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1973/009318/06)
ISIN: ZAE000047353
Share code: CML
("Coronation")

TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

In terms of paragraph 3.4(b)(i) of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, Coronation is required to report to
shareholders when a reasonable degree of certainty exists that earnings per share (“EPS”) and headline earnings per
share (“HEPS”) for the period to be reported on next are expected to differ by at least 20% when compared to the prior
comparable period.

In terms of this requirement, Coronation hereby advises shareholders that EPS and HEPS for the financial year ending
30 September 2013 are expected to be considerably higher than 20% when compared to those for the financial year
ended 30 September 2012.


A further announcement will be released as soon as there is a reasonable degree of certainty as to the likely range,
within 20%, by which the EPS and HEPS for the financial year ending 30 September 2013 are expected to increase.

Coronation’s financial results for the year ending 30 September 2013 will be released on or about 12 November 2013.

The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed or reported on by
Coronation’s external auditors.

Patrick

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Re: CML
« Reply #100 on: August 13, 2013, 11:43:30 am »
CML is 13% of my holdings but 50% of my profits!  :TU: (the rest is all in the indi because as you can see in the competition, I pick more losers than winners  :mad:)

tgg78703

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Re: CML
« Reply #101 on: August 13, 2013, 08:47:53 pm »
their full year earnings are going to be considerably higher than 20 %, Their half year earnings were 80% to 100% higher, which caused the price hike.

So getting a full year at @20% + when you where already 80 to 100 at half time makes me wonder ;)

Moonraker

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Re: CML
« Reply #102 on: August 14, 2013, 09:03:39 am »
their full year earnings are going to be considerably higher than 20 %, Their half year earnings were 80% to 100% higher, which caused the price hike.

So getting a full year at @20% + when you where already 80 to 100 at half time makes me wonder ;)
Yes, you are right. All depends on the 'cosiderably higher' figures.  ;)

tgg78703

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Re: CML
« Reply #103 on: August 16, 2013, 08:20:00 pm »
I think my lon did better than your cml, but then I,m a trader. but as investor not bad either.

Your growth on cml is 29.1 %, mine on lon is 50.73%.

I just put to little in them, but then sgl not doing to bad

gcr

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Re: CML
« Reply #104 on: August 16, 2013, 10:54:56 pm »
tgg. Are you sitting down now? I suggest you do so. I will wait awhile.....................
So you sitting now. Good. Lon has done 25% for the past year. CML has done 130% for the past year.
I have a W tatoo on each bum cheek and when I bend down you will see WoW to your Lon.
Must be partaking of the happy juice again :LHST:
Not everything that counts, can be counted, and, not everything that can be counted counts - Albert Einstein