CML's share price is largely dependent on how the markets perform. Here are approximate figures for the Top40 and the Indi over 3 years.
Top40
22% over the past year.
25% ave. pa over 2 years.
26% ave. pa over 3 years.
Indi
25% over the past year.
35% ave. pa over 2 years.
43% ave. pa over 3 years.
As these are average pa figures, the performance this year is rather lower than prior years. This is reflected in CML's results that fell from 102% to 69% (HEPS).
For the 8 months of this year she has gained just under 30% and for the past year she gained 50%. Substantially less than the 130% pa ave. Bear in mind that the market was flat November to end February as was CML. Her spectacular performance of 102% in December did not reflect on the share price due to low market sentiment and the negative comment by the CEO did not help either. The words "Turbulence, lumpy and Not sustainable" come to mind.
The 69% increase in HEPS announced in May sent her slightly down. Now if excellent results do nothing and great results send her slightly down then what will get her to perform as she did 1, 2 and 3 years ago? Those days are in the past and thoughts of a repetition is a dream.
I am quite happy with 30%pa that I'm sure she will do at minimum being the most successful third party fund manager in SA.
The fact that Foord and Investec recently upped their stake to 5% in CML. Not to mention the Goliath of fund managers PIC that added CML to their holdings last week. They now hold 10.2% of CML's shares. This gives me some comfort as they bought close to R100.