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Author Topic: Can you actually beat the market?  (Read 36202 times)

BeatBuffet

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Can you actually beat the market?
« on: April 26, 2013, 03:02:11 pm »
I've read time and again that it is practically impossible to beat the market. There are many articles as to why this can't be done on any sort of consistent basis, even by the best fund managers. Even my namesake suggest that most people would be far better off simply buying index funds.

So a couple of questions, how many of you would have been better off now if you simply bought index funds throughout your investment lifespan?

Do you have any specific strategy you outdo the index?

Are you convinced you have an edge?

I'm just curious. I myself haven't beaten the market, it's beaten me. Not into a loss, but into less of a gain that the all share index has made. I keep contemplating moving everything into index funds, and then decide I'll find the next big thing... My poor brain!
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Krypt0n1te

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2013, 05:09:07 pm »
No man, there's many people constantly beating the ALSI, but on the other hand there is many more not beating it.
I just think k you really need to spend a lot of time to improve your knowledge.
Lastly having your money in an ETF would definitely reduce your stress.
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Orca

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2013, 08:12:42 pm »
You must realize that fund managers are restricted by the FSB to be more conservative to protect the investors. The average is about 20% if the markets allow.
If you cannot do that then I suggest Satrix Ind. Does about 30%pa. It has been proven over time that Equities gain the most.
Most guys here except jaDEB have been doing 50 to 80% pa.
Not bragging but I am pleased with my 60%.
 
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tgg78703

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2013, 12:18:36 am »
I can buy a new 4x4 or a new KTM 1190, but that would not be half as much fun riding as just being in the market.Never mind beating it.

But then how do you propose beating the market, the market is the market and you are buying into it. You can buy certain shares that will grow more than the market average , but in those shares you bought that is what the market grew. so if you want to beat the market you have to invest elsewhere that will give better returns
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jaDEB

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2013, 08:56:16 am »
Quote from: Orca on April 26, 2013, 08:12:42 pm
You must realize that fund managers are restricted by the FSB to be more conservative to protect the investors. The average is about 20% if the markets allow.
If you cannot do that then I suggest Satrix Ind. Does about 30%pa. It has been proven over time that Equities gain the most.
Most guys here except jaDEB have been doing 50 to 80% pa.
Not bragging but I am pleased with my 60%.
 

Shot Orca, I needed that ..... I love Mondays
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jaDEB

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Patrick

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2013, 09:57:15 am »
I don't believe you can beat the market. Personally I think it's a losers game, so in reality my money goes into exchange traded funds. I believe this so strongly that I made up an investment game to prove my point.

Only thing is, I am beating the market, but I'm attributing that to luck and it shouldn't last. Incidentally out of 341 competitors, the ETF I use (satrix indi) is sitting in 22nd position, so it does beat 93.5% of competitors. Not a chance I'll try beat that in reality. In the long run I can pretty much guarantee it would kick my ass.
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Orca

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2013, 10:52:13 am »
Well, so far so good Patrick. I tend to agree with you that is why I'm thinking of switching all my stocks to the Indi soon. You might beat it over 1 year or perhaps 2 at most. Bar the 2008/9 crash, it has had no corrections to speak of in over 10 years. I doubt if there is a stock on the JSE that even equals that.
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jaDEB

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2013, 11:55:45 am »
Quote from: Patrick on July 09, 2013, 09:57:15 am
I don't believe you can beat the market. Personally I think it's a losers game

If that is the case, why are we here? not like on earth, but at shareforum?  :P
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jaDEB

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Patrick

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2013, 12:05:10 pm »
Quote from: jaDEB on July 09, 2013, 11:55:45 am
Quote from: Patrick on July 09, 2013, 09:57:15 am
I don't believe you can beat the market. Personally I think it's a losers game

If that is the case, why are we here? not like on earth, but at shareforum?  :P

Haha ok, I'll rephrase: I don't believe you can beat the market LONG TERM!
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jaDEB

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2013, 12:38:31 pm »
 :frustrated: Well I have being trying for years, and will not give up.
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jaDEB

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gcr

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2013, 12:47:28 pm »
I can't follow the arguments here about beating the market - what is the market the ALSI, Top40, Fin 15, Ind 25, Res 10 - if you are dealing with the broadest measure then nobody should have a problem beating the market (if the ALSI is the benchmark). If you look at the competition Patrick is running the STXIND is beating the ALSI by a few percentage points. So we need to define the market in terms of an index which we are trying to beat and since the broadest measure is the ALSI then that is the market that you are trying to beat. I am a firm believer that if you manage your own portfolio you should be able to beat the market very much annually, whereas the fund managers will battle because they run large and cumbersome funds and they have (bar a few) all set such low bench marks that it doesn't pay to invest with them, the only reason they set such low bench marks is so that they can reward themselves when they do exceed the bench mark by taking large fees from clients.
Some of my funds are invested in Mutual Funds and some companies perform well, and other awfully, and/or average - but if Satrix options as on has today were around 10 - 15 years ago I would have invested in a range of Satrix's as opposed to U/T's
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Moneypenny

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2013, 03:20:26 pm »
Yes you can.
 
I've done these previously, are no expert and these are actual numbers not wishful thinking or is 1-2 years not regarded as long term?

And the other requirement ‘consistently’ – don’t know if it is consistent, moved on to trading since then. Gosh wonder why I did that, there’s got be a lesson in here somewhere.

These were not the only ones but most memorable ones; yes there were losses too but nowhere close to being equal in comparison to the winners.

Doubters, please don’t make me get out my archives for this.


KIO
Jan’09 R161.00 to 14 Feb’2011 473.86
Anglo
Jan’09 210.99 to 319.49 Dec’09
AMS
Jan’10 526.00 to 14 Feb 2011 738.00
EXX
Jan’09 71.90 to 14 Feb 2011 157.50
BAT (as in Brait)
Jan’09 12.50 – 14 Feb 2011 23.15
UUU
Jan’10 22.50 – 14 Feb 2011 46.25
MUR
My first share 2006/7, bought 29.00–something, sold 93.00-something a year or what later.

(Alsi was +28.88% 2009 & +16.05% 2010)
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jaDEB

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2013, 03:47:57 pm »
Congrats on UUU, I also made about 45% on it. Then bought SGL and lost it all again. I miss UUU  :wall: :wall:, I believed it was the only real player 1 can buy into to get into the nuclear power play.
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jaDEB

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Patrick

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2013, 05:14:34 pm »
For me the market is the ALSI, and long term means keeping my classification as an investor in the beady eyes of SARS. So could I beat the ALSI, with shares that I couldn't take profits from until 3 years had passed? Unlikely for my current understanding of the investment world.

Those are great numbers MP, but were there losses on other shares in the same time? Did your average return exceed 28.8% and 16.05%?
« Last Edit: July 09, 2013, 05:42:22 pm by Patrick »
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Orca

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Re: Can you actually beat the market?
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2013, 05:32:08 pm »
Nooooo MoneyPenny. You can't post good results here. You will get told that you are arrogant and stuff. I toned down since I was called bad names on the competition thread.
But since you insist, I lost 45% in my Managed Account during the crash of 2008/9 so had to get it back asap by my own. Found 1 stock and did 65% the 1'st year and 73% the next. Added 2 more stocks for safety and did 119% in 2012 ex divies. This year started well then tapered off.
So 3.5 years of beating the Indi so far but can it last? We will see.
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