Author Topic: ALSI TRADING  (Read 16242 times)

Bevan

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2018, 10:00:38 pm »
I prefer using Macci-D's vs. EMA's simply because it packs more info but is based on the same underlying assumptions. In my MACD below the red signal line is a medium-term momentum indicator and should be paid close attention to i.e. whether it's above or below the zero indicates the prevailing strength of the market. The blue line is a short term timing indicator.

So, I also would have looked to go short around 9:10 (my times below are UK times so 1 hour behind), with the blue timing indicator crossing down over the red momentum line. However, the red momentum line was still in positive territory so this indicates cross-current, choppy, sideways action.... better to sit on the sidelines. Around an hour later we get a nice cross upwards (blue line crossing up over red) and red is just inside positive territory still... would have gone long then. Another hour later we get a blue line crossing down over red, indicating more cross-current price action.... depending on your stop loss and take profit levels at that point, would have probably stuck with the long and rode out the bumpiness. Shortly afterwards we get another cross upwards to go concurrent to the upside... would have added to my long position etc.

Clearly it's easy to comment after the fact when you can see the resulting price action. However, I've found this combination of momentum and timing lines to be invaluable over the years. The key is to see how the red line is doing - positive or negative, and to not trade against that. Combine that with some basic resistance levels, bollinger bands to gauge market stretchiness / volatility, some basic and obvious trading mentality patterns such as bull and bear flags, and 50% retracements, and that's pretty much all I use these days.

Whatever edge you keep using, the key is that you stick to it and work on your discipline. Over the years I've found that is what will either make or break you as a trader.  And not caring about what happens once you've traded, stopped out or taken a profit. Amazing things happen when you just trust, set your stops and go walk the dog.  :)
Audi, vide, tace, si vis vivere in pace. Pax vobiscum.
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DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2018, 08:14:40 am »
Hi Bevan

Will look to answer your questions later today. But just on the one point in terms of scalping.

If you look at the numbers 23-38-81 on a 5 minute chart. To my reckoning that means it's 23 times 5 and so on which equates to 115-190-404. What this means is that a full crossover of the EMAs only occurs every 2 or 3 days.
On the 1 hour the full EMA crossover only happens every 10 days to 2 weeks.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 08:16:26 am by DontPanic »

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2018, 09:00:47 am »
UPDATE

5 min long
1 hour neutral

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2018, 01:32:12 pm »
UPDATE:

1 hour neutral
5 min short

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 07:44:54 am »
Hi Bevan

Sorry for the late response- been busy with the day job.
Yes I am using IG to trade- for the very reason that you can be both long and short in the same account at the same time (force open).
My idea is that both time frames (1 hour and 5 minute) will both make money over a given time, independently of each other. It just so happens that at times one will hedge the other. But in my mind they are separate. Don't know if that makes sense?
Thanks for sharing your strategy...I'll have a good look at it on the weekend. I totally agree with you about sticking to and trusting your "edge" !!  ;)

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 07:52:26 am »
The 1 hour remains neutral
The 5 minute is also neutral. It has been whipsawing long and short all week. Very difficult to trade and very frustrating. However I do believe that over the course of the month the inevitable break out-long or short- will compensate for the losses. Over time it would be good to find a way to identify a choppy market beforehand.  :o
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 07:55:39 am by DontPanic »

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2018, 12:17:22 pm »
1hour long
5 min long
But watching closely due to Trump's latest trade war threats
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 12:19:36 pm by DontPanic »

Bevan

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2018, 08:58:03 pm »
The 1 hour remains neutral
The 5 minute is also neutral. It has been whipsawing long and short all week. Very difficult to trade and very frustrating. However I do believe that over the course of the month the inevitable break out-long or short- will compensate for the losses. Over time it would be good to find a way to identify a choppy market beforehand.  :o

I get the idea but if you trading the same size in both you will only ever win or lose on your net position. Instead of trying to time the market once per trade you're now trying to time it right on both sides. And of course your spread is doubled... IG mst love you... They take 2xspread and no need to lay off risk in market for themselves. Of course this strategy can work but you need to be extra disciplined and avoid running your losses on one and cutting profits on the other. Good luck, it all hangs on whether you can stick to your stop loss on one side, and then make more on the other side.
Audi, vide, tace, si vis vivere in pace. Pax vobiscum.
Happiness belongs to the self-sufficient - https://www.thrivecentre.co.za

Oversix

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #23 on: July 23, 2018, 07:20:42 pm »
Hi DP

Have a look at this website https://realchartist.com. The guy post some nice detailed videos of his input of the alsi.


DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2018, 08:40:59 am »
Thanks Oversix. Will do :)

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2018, 08:43:10 am »
1 hour long... (behaving itself as usual)
5 min long (after a very admittedly choppy period...let's see how we go on this one)

Orca

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2018, 08:56:46 pm »
With today's uncertain financial markets we have no balls. Not even crystal balls to predict longer term movements. We have Nix. Nada. Fokol to go by. Look at the ALSI chart. So short term CFD's to the extent of scalping will or may be the way to go. For a part of one's portfolio. I am concerned at the tax implications though. Almost half would go to tax where investing will be about 13%.
 
I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.

Bevan

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2018, 09:13:31 pm »
With today's uncertain financial markets we have no balls. Not even crystal balls to predict longer term movements. We have Nix. Nada. Fokol to go by. Look at the ALSI chart. So short term CFD's to the extent of scalping will or may be the way to go. For a part of one's portfolio. I am concerned at the tax implications though. Almost half would go to tax where investing will be about 13%.

Even with scalping you're trading against algos and bots who react in nanoseconds. Market patterns have changed noticeably over the last two years with the prevalence of long and short bots now. There's still the underyling upward surge of all the passive money simply being blindly thrown into the market every month but fairly soon people are going to start realising that it's not a one-way street anymore. The great unwind of passive money exiting all those tracker funds is going to be amazing to see. Not sure when it will happen (1 month, 1 year or 5 years) but when the momentum catches on it's going to be epic.
Audi, vide, tace, si vis vivere in pace. Pax vobiscum.
Happiness belongs to the self-sufficient - https://www.thrivecentre.co.za

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #28 on: July 26, 2018, 06:37:16 am »
1 hour is neutral
5 min is supposed to be short (I missed it due to working)

I've decided to not look at charts at all on IG (I'll only use the free charts on Investing.com) as I don't like the fact that after hours trading (5.25pm to 8.30am) distorts the EMAs picture too much. However I do like the fact that with IG you have the opportunity to open or close positions/ hedge positions after hours if necessary (eg if there's big market moving news).

DontPanic

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Re: ALSI TRADING
« Reply #29 on: July 27, 2018, 10:23:28 am »
1 hour long
5 min long