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Quote from: Delusionsofgrandeur on November 18, 2013, 08:16:07 am

Quote from: Moonraker on November 16, 2013, 09:08:51 am

The inclusion of trade data for Swaziland, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia (SACU member countries), has almost halved the
trade deficit, which includes the current account deficit. The timing is a mystery; why only now ?

Some see window-dressing in S. Africa data changes

Anyway that, and Janet Yellen are the reasons for the stronger Rand these past couple of days.

You think the rand will increase in value or even plateau at this point in this year?When will it start to steadily strengthen?Hard to speculate ,right.Not even 24 hours after your comment the rand took a little dip after its peak.

Have a look at Sudden and severe tapering by the US Fed could crash the rand by Magnus Heystek
We will see a weaker Rand in 2014 - anything between 10.50 to 12.00 to the US$ depending on whether tapering is mild or severe.
I agree with Heystek on that. However I don't fully agree with his comments on listed property, due to the 7% average consensus prognosis
of distribution increases in 2014 (unlike with bonds where your yield is fixed). Maybe a 20% max. decline is what one could expect.
You should be in rand hedge stocks.
If you are living in, what was it, S. Korea ? - why bother with our market ?

I see.I tried the South Korean market,but the language barrier is a problem,making acquiring any type of information regarding trading and investing , let alone sharing tips in English a bit of a problem. I'm also thinking of the market in Hong Kong,foreigners are allowed to trade there If I am not mistaken.But I know nothing about that so I will have to do some research.

Cheers,here's Samsung electric vs OMN.Samsung seems to have outperformed Omnia for a while up until recently.

P.E ratio of 7.5.

Yes, sure doesn't look as good as one would think for investing in ZA if you are living in S. Korea.

10 yrs. ago you were looking at about 180 Won to 1 Rand.
Now ± 100 Won to 1 Rand. That is a 44½ % depreciation of the Rand vs. the Won.

(Can someone factor this into the chart ?)

Source = SBK Equities Research

Food Inflation falls to 4.2%y/y
Global deflation counters rand weakness to lower inflation to 5.5% y/y

Headline CPI in October slowed from 6.0% y/y to 5.5% y/y, largely due to food
and fuel. Food Inflation declined from 6.0 to 4.2%y/y and petrol declined from
12.8 to 9.3% y/y shaving 0.27ppts and 0.20ppts respectively off September's
6.0% y/y inflation rate. The decline in food inflation was led by unprocessed
food, which fell from 4.6 to 1.9% y/y. Processed food slowed more
moderately from 7.4 to 6.6% y/y. Excluding Food, NAB and petrol, CPI
remained flat at 5.4% y/y. We expect CPI to average 5.8% in 2013 and 5.6% in
2014.
There were some interesting developments within the components of CPI:
■ Vehicle prices are starting to show some recovery and contributed
0.05ppts more to CPI versus last month.
■ Alcoholic beverages contributed 0.04ppts more versus last month.
■ Countering these increases, electricity declined from 7.7 to 7.5%, books,
newspaper and stationary declined from 9.3 to 3.9%, and funeral (other)
services slowed from 5.9 to 2.8% y/y. Respectively these components
contributed 0.01, 0.03, 0.05, 0.04 less to CPI, reducing CPI by 0.08ppts
versus August.
■ Administrative price inflation ex petrol increased marginally from 7 to 7.1%
y/y. Administrative inflation has been well above CPI since January 2009.
Excluding administrative prices inflation dropped from 5.3% to 4.9% y/y, in
October, well within the target band.
■ The gap between durable and non-durable inflation is starting to close;
durable inflation rose from 1.3% to 1.9% y/y and non-durable inflation
slowed from 7.3% to 6.1% y/y. We think this is indicative of the
business cycle turning.
Looking ahead: Rand weakness vs. oil price:
While the rand should start to exert upward pressure on CPI in 2014, oil price
inflation in ZAR is moderating. We expect oil price inflation in USD terms to
remain contained over 2014 and ameliorate ZAR related inflationary effects.

South Africa’s Economic Growth Slows to Four-Year Low of 0.7%

Quote

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.7 percent compared with a revised 3.2 percent in the three months through June, Statistics South Africa said in a report released in Johannesburg today. The median estimate of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey was 1 percent.

  not far from a recession...

Well since i'm still buying shares every month, a correction/crash just means more buying opportunities with better prices. It's the guys with big lump sums invested who aren't buying shares who feel the real pain.

I see this as opportunity. Surely when GDP turns upwards, companies you've bought now should produce better results pushing their share prices higher, not?

Difficult to understand when everybody's saying the market is expensive.

GDP 1st ¼ 2014 DOWN -0.6%

The seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices for the first quarter of 2014 decreased by an annualised rate of 0,6 percent. The main contributors to this decrease in economic activity were the mining and quarrying industry (-1,3 percentage points) and the manufacturing industry (-0,7 of a percentage point).

The mining and quarrying industry’s contribution of -1,3 percentage points was based on a negative growth of 24,7 percent, due to lower production in the mining of gold, the mining of other metal ores (including platinum) and ‘other’ mining and quarrying (including diamonds).

The manufacturing industry’s negative contribution of 0,7 of a percentage point was based on a negative growth of 4,4 percent, mainly due to lower production in the petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products division and the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery division.

The biggest positive contributors in economic activity included finance, real estate and business services (0,4 of a percentage point), the wholesale, retail and motor trade; catering and accommodation industry (0,3 of a percentage point) and the transport, storage and communication industry and general government services (each contributing 0,2 of a percentage point).

The seasonally adjusted real annualised value added by the primary and secondary sectors recorded decreases of 17,2 percent and 2,7 percent respectively, while the tertiary sector recorded an increase of 1,8 percent during the first quarter of 2014.

The unadjusted real GDP at market prices for the first quarter of 2014 increased by 1,6 percent compared with the first quarter of 2013. The most notable performance was the construction industry that increased by 4,9 percent. Negative contributions were recorded by the mining and quarrying industry (negative growth of 2,5 percent) and the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry (negative growth of 1,6 percent).

The nominal GDP at market prices during the first quarter of 2014 was R874 billion, which is R2 billion less than in the fourth quarter of 2013.

(SRC= statssa)